Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Disney Experience]

Israel has vaccinated higher percent of their population than most countries, but not yet at herd immunity. The non elderly now exceed elderly in hospitalizations in the country. The country may be an interesting one to follow as a canary of how demographics will change as more are vaccinated and the virus strains dominance change.

Israel's massive vaccine drive isn't keeping up with new cases — especially among younger victims

A record amount of young people in Israel are contracting the virus accounting for a record one quarter of the most serious Covid cases

www.cnbc.com

 

[jmp85]

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2021/01/08/disney-may-move-some-la-divisions-to-orlando.html

 

[DisneyCane]

Israel has vaccinated higher percent of their population than most countries, but not yet at herd immunity. The non elderly now exceed elderly in hospitalizations in the country. The country may be an interesting one to follow as a canary of how demographics will change as more are vaccinated and the virus strains dominance change.

Israel's massive vaccine drive isn't keeping up with new cases — especially among younger victims

A record amount of young people in Israel are contracting the virus accounting for a record one quarter of the most serious Covid cases

www.cnbc.com

For the most part, the Israeli people have only gotten the first shot so far, so they can't possibly be at herd immunity. I don't think we need a canary for this first phase. Once a high percentage of the elderly have had the full vaccine series and a few weeks have passed for immunity to "kick in," there will be very few people 65 and over who end up hospitalized or die.

The useful canary will be at what percentage of the entire population completing the entire series will trigger herd immunity.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wonder how much is just reporting delays. We already know there is at least a 3 day lag between inoculation and reporting to the state and then at least another day or more to get to the CDC and in some areas it’s probably longer. If the calculation just takes the number of new people vaccinated more than 3 weeks ago and compares it to the number reported to have gotten their 2nd shot then the lag could explain quite a bit of that.

Fine print from the CDC tracker:
Healthcare providers report doses to federal, state, territorial, and local agencies up to 72 hours after administration. There may be additional lag for data to be transmitted from the federal, state, territorial, or local agency to CDC. A large difference between the number of doses distributed and the number of people initiating vaccination is expected at this point in the COVID vaccination program due to several factors, including delays in reporting of administered doses and management of available vaccine stocks by jurisdictions and federal pharmacy partners.

I think that might be part of it...

But I doubt it comes close to explaining how horribly behind this is.

And it is. It’s way behind. The public health officials screamed about logistics for 10 months...nobody listened/did their jobs

 

[ParentsOf4]

California has its share of "rural upstate types" in the central valley. We have friends there and their level of denial or "it's just us, we can do what we want" is stunning. Five or six cases from extended family gatherings so far. And that's just among our friends. And these are educated, smart, kind, generous, successful people.

That's not the only answer, of course. It's surely more complex than that.

I watch NJ like a hawk because my congregation is open for worship, and we have a food bank, feeding program, thrift shop, and homeless program, all open. So far, with our guidelines, we have not had a single case of spread on property since opening last July. Same is true of the Episcopal diocese as a whole (individuals have tested positive, but no spread to other people in the same place at the same time), so we have a very high confidence in our protocols (masking, distancing, capacity limitations).

From what I see, people are very good about distancing and masking. However, we aren't under "draconian measures." Many things are open (albeit under limitations), people are out and about, etc. I think there may be a hidden story in the schools that may not be getting out. The number of private schools that have had to go virtual because of spread among students is pretty high.

We are also a densely populated state, though my county, number 2 in worst cases right now, is not that dense.

Overall, the government has basically decided that if the hospitals can handle it, they're going to do their best to keep things open and running. They've been clear that without economic help, shutting down broad swaths is basically economic suicide.

So far, knock wood, the hospitals have been doing OK. Not great, but OK. I'm deeply concerned about one hospital in the area where two parishioners became COVID positive after long-term stays for other reasons. Nothing at all like last Spring, overall, even though our numbers are way higher than last Spring.

If I had to guess, I would say younger people (middle age and less) not following rules, and unwise private large gatherings.

I don't disagree with anything you wrote but it still doesn't explain why Vermont, which is mostly "rural upstate types", has consistently reported the best COVID numbers in the 48 states.

Conversely, it doesn't explain why tiny Rhode Island, which is essentially city or suburb, has been reporting horrible numbers for months.

At this moment, states like California and Massachusetts are reporting worse numbers than Florida and South Dakota, states which have been vilified. I don't mean to get political, although do I believe some governors have acted more responsibly than others.

Yet even in states where governors have acted responsibly, the numbers surge. You mention New Jersey, which certainly has more restrictions than Florida. (And which some people do consider to be draconian.) Yet, at this moment, New Jersey's numbers are higher than Florida's. My home state (Georgia) essentially has had no restrictions since April (very dumb) yet, currently, Georgia's and New Jersey's numbers are similar.

My point is, proper precautions (i.e. wearing a mask) are essential. But even proper precautions are no guarantee.

Reiterating what I wrote earlier, there does seem to be some degree of randomness (i.e. bad luck) in this.

I can wear a seatbelt for my entire life (which I do) and still die in a car crash.

I can wear a mask all the time in public, wash my hands, etc. (which I do) and still contract COVID.

There just seems to be an element of misfortune, an element of randomness, an element of bad luck.

Until the most recent capacity increase, I thought WDW was doing it right, striking the right balance between remaining open but also enforcing the most successful precautions.

With the most recent capacity increase, I'm no longer sure about WDW.

 

[MrConbon]

With park hopping being added back, can annual passholders take advantage of that or is it just for those who specifically purchase park hopper tickets?

 

[DCBaker]

With park hopping being added back, can annual passholders take advantage of that or is it just for those who specifically purchase park hopper tickets?

Yes, you can park hop with an AP.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I don't disagree with anything you wrote but it still doesn't explain why Vermont, which is mostly "rural upstate types", has consistently reported the best COVID numbers in the 48 states.

Allow me to summarize why I think we've so far avoided the worst up here in the Green Mountain State. There's a couple of structural factors, like not having anything remotely close to a large city, being largely rural, not having the capacity to host an event that could become a super-spreader, and simply being a relatively isolated, end-of-the-line state that people only purposely visit as a destination, rather than a transit state they cross through on the way to somewhere else. Plus, if you live in Vermont, you're pretty accustomed to keeping yourself mostly entertained in the wide-open outdoors anyway.

The biggest reasons, though, in my opinion, are that both the government and the people bought into and followed the recommendations at an early stage. Mask usage was almost universal by early April, and businesses very quickly adapted to the new reality. I live in a rural area, and over the last several months, I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen maskless indoors. Even the small group of Trump supporters I saw at a pre-election rally were all wearing masks and social distancing (at least, they were when I drove by). The state government very quickly enacted travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, both for visitors and residents, and gave businesses clear enforcement guidelines. And because the numbers have never reached an overwhelming number, contact tracing is still effective. So, add the pre-existing structural advantages to smart governance (our governor, BTW, is an anti-Trump Republican), plus good public compliance, and that's why our numbers so far haven't even come close to overwhelming the health system.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I don't disagree with anything you wrote but it still doesn't explain why Vermont, which is mostly "rural upstate types", has consistently reported the best COVID numbers in the 48 states.

Conversely, it doesn't explain why tiny Rhode Island, which is essentially city or suburb, has been reporting horrible numbers for months.

At this moment, states like California and Massachusetts are reporting worse numbers than Florida and South Dakota, states which have been vilified. I don't mean to get political, although do I believe some governors have acted more responsibly than others.

Yet even in states where governors have acted responsibly, the numbers surge. You mention New Jersey, which certainly has more restrictions than Florida. (And which some people do consider to be draconian.) Yet, at this moment, New Jersey's numbers are higher than Florida's. My home state (Georgia) essentially has had no restrictions since April (very dumb) yet, currently, Georgia's and New Jersey's numbers are similar.

My point is, proper precautions (i.e. wearing a mask) are essential. But even proper precautions are no guarantee.

Reiterating what I wrote earlier, there does seem to be some degree of randomness (i.e. bad luck) in this.

I can wear a seatbelt for my entire life (which I do) and still die in a car crash.

I can wear a mask all the time in public, wash my hands, etc. (which I do) and still contract COVID.

There just seems to be an element of misfortune, an element of randomness, an element of bad luck.

Until the most recent capacity increase, I thought WDW was doing it right, striking the right balance between remaining open but also enforcing the most successful precautions.

With the most recent capacity increase, I'm no longer sure about WDW.

Oh, I don't disagree at all - each state seems to have a unique set of circumstances. Georgia is really interesting to me, too, my husband grew up there and Savannah is likely to be a retirement consideration. Friends were just in Savannah and freaked - very little mask wearing and distancing! Yet, they seem to be managing as a state. Of course, GA and FL are both Southern states (climate-wise) and NJ and RI aren't. South Carolina is apparently not doing well, though.

As you say, precautions essential but no guarantee. The virus is going to virus.

Regarding Disney, the longer it's been since our last trip (awesome February 2020), the more certain I am we're not going back until everything is open. I simply don't want pandemic Disney. This is purely us - no judgement on anybody else. It's just that Disney is my escape place, and being there right now isn't an escape. I have confidence in safety, but what I value there isn't on offer currently.

 

[DisneyCane]

Allow me to summarize why I think we've so far avoided the worst up here in the Green Mountain State. There's a couple of structural factors, like not having anything remotely close to a large city, being largely rural, not having the capacity to host an event that could become a super-spreader, and simply being a relatively isolated, end-of-the-line state that people only purposely visit as a destination, rather a transit state they cross through on the way to somewhere else. Plus, if you live in Vermont, you're pretty accustomed to keeping yourself mostly entertained in the wide-open outdoors anyway.

The biggest reasons, though, in my opinion, are that both the government and the people bought into and followed the recommendations at an early stage. Mask usage was almost universal by early April, and businesses very quickly adapted to the new reality. I live in a rural area, and over the last several months, I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen maskless indoors. Even the small group of Trump supporters I saw at a pre-election rally were all wearing masks and social distancing (at least, they were when I drove by). The state government very quickly enacted travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, both for visitors and residents, and gave businesses clear enforcement guidelines. And because the numbers have never reached an overwhelming number, contact tracing is still effective. So, add the pre-existing structural advantages to smart governance (our governor, BTW, is an anti-Trump Republican), plus good public compliance, and that's why our numbers so far haven't even come close to overwhelming the health system.

My business partner has a second home in Vermont and he spends most of the summer there. What he told me jibes pretty well with what you posted. Basically he said that the people in Vermont have been "scared to death" of COVID since the beginning and therefore have done a lot of voluntary mitigation and self protection. He said that many restaurants near his house closed indoor dining even though they were allowed to have it open.

 

[Disney Experience]

For the most part, the Israeli people have only gotten the first shot so far, so they can't possibly be at herd immunity. I don't think we need a canary for this first phase. Once a high percentage of the elderly have had the full vaccine series and a few weeks have passed for immunity to "kick in," there will be very few people 65 and over who end up hospitalized or die.

The useful canary will be at what percentage of the entire population completing the entire series will trigger herd immunity.

I would not say they had herd immunity yet. Certain demographics are getting close and the canary part is that since the country is a vanguard in the race “towards” herd immunity it will be interesting to watch how it matures there.
For example when does their covid rate go down vs percent vaccinated. They will likely hit that before the USA. In that way they are a canary.

(Edit: I just now read your last paragraph, do not know how I overlooked it on first read. I agree on what you describe as a useful canary)

(Edit: The main point I was trying to make is that there may be other first world countries whose vaccinate rate leads ours (USA) and observing their results can be of value ( Even while acknowledging that other factors beyond vaccination rate impact covid rate.)

 

[GoofGoof]

I hope so but the numbers I'm looking at for Florida are on the State Vaccination Report. Maybe somebody from the media can ask the health department about this.

I still would expect a delay of up to 72 hours from provider to state as they stated. I also think as individual hospitals did the bulk of the vaccinations for medical workers they have more important things to worry about than reporting results. Delays could be longer. The nursing homes being done by CVS or other contractors should have more timely reporting since they have the administrative infrastructure already setup to track vaccinations done for billing purposes.

 

[BrianLo]

Pointing to upper New York staters being "rural upstate types" doesn't explain what's happening in other states such as California (which has had a stay at home order since December 1), Rhode Island (which has been bad for months), New Jersey (which had a recent spike), or Connecticut (which has had several spikes despite having really good numbers in the fall).

I am very much pro mask but these trends suggest to me that COVID is difficult to stop and that some of the more draconian measures are, at best, only partially successful.

Frankly, I think there's simply some randomness (i.e. bad luck) involved when it comes to the spread of COVID. Some states have done it right and things still go wrong.

People can be stupid by going to crowded indoor parties and bars. But this happens in EVERY state.

And I've now seen a few instances of the "I don't have COVID, cough, cough" crowd, only to test positive after going out and infecting others.

Again, this happens in every state.

Yet COVID still spikes in some states, then seems to move on to others.

Wear a mask!

Wash your hands!

Social distance!

Stay at home if you don't feel well!

California has its share of "rural upstate types" in the central valley. We have friends there and their level of denial or "it's just us, we can do what we want" is stunning. Five or six cases from extended family gatherings so far. And that's just among our friends. And these are educated, smart, kind, generous, successful people.

That's not the only answer, of course. It's surely more complex than that.

I watch NJ like a hawk because my congregation is open for worship, and we have a food bank, feeding program, thrift shop, and homeless program, all open. So far, with our guidelines, we have not had a single case of spread on property since opening last July. Same is true of the Episcopal diocese as a whole (individuals have tested positive, but no spread to other people in the same place at the same time), so we have a very high confidence in our protocols (masking, distancing, capacity limitations).

From what I see, people are very good about distancing and masking. However, we aren't under "draconian measures." Many things are open (albeit under limitations), people are out and about, etc. I think there may be a hidden story in the schools that may not be getting out. The number of private schools that have had to go virtual because of spread among students is pretty high.

We are also a densely populated state, though my county, number 2 in worst cases right now, is not that dense.

Overall, the government has basically decided that if the hospitals can handle it, they're going to do their best to keep things open and running. They've been clear that without economic help, shutting down broad swaths is basically economic suicide.

So far, knock wood, the hospitals have been doing OK. Not great, but OK. I'm deeply concerned about one hospital in the area where two parishioners became COVID positive after long-term stays for other reasons. Nothing at all like last Spring, overall, even though our numbers are way higher than last Spring.

If I had to guess, I would say younger people (middle age and less) not following rules, and unwise private large gatherings.

Thanks for all the Info!

I think my question is less why is it surging as opposed to why is New York not really reacting?

Their current policies (not the first six months) seem much more Florida these days than California or certainly neighboring Ontario/Quebec.

I just think it’s odd they still are open-ish. Maybe I’m missing something but all the news stories I saw was ‘we’ll have to do something if things don’t improve’ four weeks ago. Things have markedly worsened.

 

[Jrb1979]

Thanks for all the Info!

I think my question is less why is it surging as opposed to why is New York not really reacting?

Their current policies (not the first six months) seem much more Florida these days than California or certainly neighboring Ontario/Quebec.

I just think it’s odd they still are open-ish. Maybe I’m missing something but all the news stories I saw was ‘we’ll have to do something if things don’t improve’ four weeks ago. Things have markedly worsened.

What's crazy is here in Ontario tomorrow they are planning on implementing curfew and only essential businesses will be open. All takeout and curbside will most likely be closed. Then I look at what's happening with the neighbors to the south and it's down right sad.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

What's crazy is here in Ontario tomorrow they are planning on implementing curfew and only essential businesses will be open. All takeout and curbside will most likely be closed. Then I look at what's happening with the neighbors to the south and it's down right sad.

I swear the people from Canada must think their living in a apartment above a meth lab.

 

[_caleb]

Oh, I don't disagree at all - each state seems to have a unique set of circumstances. Georgia is really interesting to me, too, my husband grew up there and Savannah is likely to be a retirement consideration. Friends were just in Savannah and freaked - very little mask wearing and distancing! Yet, they seem to be managing as a state. Of course, GA and FL are both Southern states (climate-wise) and NJ and RI aren't. South Carolina is apparently not doing well, though.

As you say, precautions essential but no guarantee. The virus is going to virus.

Regarding Disney, the longer it's been since our last trip (awesome February 2020), the more certain I am we're not going back until everything is open. I simply don't want pandemic Disney. This is purely us - no judgement on anybody else. It's just that Disney is my escape place, and being there right now isn't an escape. I have confidence in safety, but what I value there isn't on offer currently.

This sounds similar to what I see here a lot- people saying they won’t go back because of the restrictions at WDW (masks, distancing, no fireworks/shows/parades) rather than because our country is overwhelmed with cases of a highly-communicable new virus and unnecessary travel and gathering is contributing to the problem.

I mean, I guess whatever keeps you away?

 

[_caleb]

My business partner has a second home in Vermont and he spends most of the summer there. What he told me jibes pretty well with what you posted. Basically he said that the people in Vermont have been "scared to death" of COVID since the beginning and therefore have done a lot of voluntary mitigation and self protection. He said that many restaurants near his house closed indoor dining even though they were allowed to have it open.

for the correct use of “jibes,” instead of “jives!”

 

[Disney Experience]

From a florida today article:

After Florida received about 179,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine during the week of Dec. 14-20 and 495,000 doses the week of Dec. 21-27, the federal allocations to Florida decreased to about 289,000 doses the following week and then to about 253,000 in the just-ended week. The allocation for next week is about 254,000 doses.

At that rate it will be over 169 (2 dosesx84.6) (Edit: Fixed number that I estimated ) weeks to full vaccination of population ( of course some will not get vaccinated no matter what)

 

[DisneyDebRob]

From a florida today article:

At that rate it will be over 180 weeks to full vaccination of population ( of course some will not get vaccinated no matter what)

I heard this morning on the news at the pace the vaccinations are going in Phildelphia, it would take over a year to get most the shots who want them. That’s just Philadelphia. I know things will straighten themselves out but it shows you how far behind we are with the process.

 

[Disney Experience]

An opinion piece of Fox about Florida vs New York Covid mitigation. I know some will not read it because it is there. Myself I try to read stories from varying sources because it is easier to see bias in all sources if I do, and easier to not fall into an extremely biased position (On any side).

Karol Markowicz: COVID and Florida vs. NY -- What I discovered when I arrived in the Sunshine State

Landing at Palm Beach International Airport, I was ready to see how the other half lived. The COVID-sane half, that is.

www.foxnews.com