Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[eliza61nyc]

Embiid is the most gutless player I think I’ve ever seen...and they cater to him.

My neighbor Doug pederson is gonna be fired. Talk about a mess? Philly always seems to do their best

I'm betting Doug is gone, it will be interesting what they will do with the Carson Wentz issue. unfortunately he has not been the same since he got hurt back in 2018 and Nick foles lead them to the superbowl and I don't see him getting back into his former form. we're in a pickle, Carson wants out since they benched him for Jalen Hurt and they paid him a crap load of money that no one is going to buy out.

I'm hoping Seth Curry has a little bit of his brothers talent and can help the sixers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm a Native NY'er (lol in the "city" that is) lol it maybe be that we're notoriously cynical, generally speaking we really aren't a "skittish" type of city or state. Seriously, I don't know many folks who thought that this was going to get better before it got worse.

So maybe it's a type of thing that where we (and I'll throw Philly in this also) had really low expectations.

The level of cynicism I’m seeing in both city’s are at an all time high...and that’s saying something.

I usually don’t blame one person...but I am.

 

[pixie225]

I'm a Native NY'er (lol in the "city" that is) lol it maybe be that we're notoriously cynical, generally speaking we really aren't a "skittish" type of city or state. Seriously, I don't know many folks who thought that this was going to get better before it got worse.

So maybe it's a type of thing that where we (and I'll throw Philly in this also) had really low expectations.

We are Native Long Islanders. I think most of the uptick we are having seems to be from holiday gatherings, because according to our Governor it is not from gyms, restaurants, etc. Our local schools are doing 50% in school learning, and 50% remote learning, switching every other day, and are definitely seeing more cases. As a class has a case they go to remote learning for 2 weeks. The gyms I go past seem to have every parking spot filled, and the restaurants I have picked food up from (have not eaten "inside" since March) are pretty full - many having more than 50% of their tables filled which is against what they should be doing. As we are in the 1C group for vacs they are saying not until April or beyond for us. We have Disney booked for May 1. Don't think we will be going - will be our 4th cancellation.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m hoping the fog clears and we get back to Florida soon...but the timeline keeps stretching out.

And the “it’s great there...low crowds” are delusional. The place will not return to anything close to full operation until travel out of state/country resumes.

And the longer low occ protocols goes - the more Disney’s number crunchers (bad CEO) - the more they analyze if it’s WORTH it to them to bring things back.

Back on
Topic to “coronavirus and Walt Disney world”...that is the spiral we are in.

In short: take the vaccine, support economic relief (for EVERYONE), and let’s get serious here.

 

[ParentsOf4]

New York is an odd mix. We're doing poorly, in part, because the majority of New Yorkers outside NYC are rural upstate types, some of whom hold the same anti-science, anti-mask attitudes found in other parts of the country.

Some of the same rugged men who bundle up head-to-toe to hunt or to plow a field in frigid weather scream "no, because my widdle face is uncomfortable" when asked to throw on a mask in Wal-Mart. I know a few whose entire families ended up with COVID as a result. One of them lost grandpa to it, and then refused to believe it was COVID, because "we read the death certificate and the cause of death was respiratory failure brought on by COVID, which is not the same as dying of COVID itself. COVID didn't kill him: he died because he stopped breathing. It's all a conspiracy!"

Pointing to upper New York staters being "rural upstate types" doesn't explain what's happening in other states such as California (which has had a stay at home order since December 1), Rhode Island (which has been bad for months), New Jersey (which had a recent spike), or Connecticut (which has had several spikes despite having really good numbers in the fall).

I am very much pro mask but these trends suggest to me that COVID is difficult to stop and that some of the more draconian measures are, at best, only partially successful.

Frankly, I think there's simply some randomness (i.e. bad luck) involved when it comes to the spread of COVID. Some states have done it right and things still go wrong.

People can be stupid by going to crowded indoor parties and bars. But this happens in EVERY state.

And I've now seen a few instances of the "I don't have COVID, cough, cough" crowd, only to test positive after going out and infecting others.

Again, this happens in every state.

Yet COVID still spikes in some states, then seems to move on to others.

Wear a mask!

Wash your hands!

Social distance!

Stay at home if you don't feel well!

 

[DisneyCane]

Positivity still high... maybe plateauing... but a high plateau is a very bad thing. That only cause cases to continue to spike.

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Yeah but that's all Miami's fault. Certainly The Greater Orlando Area is fine... o, wait...
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But people can just shrug it off, right? It's not that bad... o, wait...
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Note where Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas fall.

Now, if you go to an event in Orange County where there's 100 people, what's the chance someone there is infected?
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That's for just 100 people. Wonder how many are at WDW?


But what's the worst that can happen?
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The percent positive for "newly tested" is a pretty useless stat. They are basically saying that it is worse to test positive if you've never been tested before than it is for somebody whos job or desire has them tested often. Most people getting tested who have never been tested before are more likely to be getting the test because they have symptoms or were tested due to contact tracing which makes them more likely to be positive. I don't know of too many people who aren't required to who just go and get tested multiple times out of curiosity. The percent positive for new cases is a much more relevant "surveillance" statistic and metric of test capacity.

As for the likelihood of a positive person being at an event of 100 people and relating that to WDW. If you go to a park at WDW, it is 100% likely that at least one person there will be positive. I don't have time to calculate but I'd guess that it is 100% likely that at least 100 people there are positive and there are likely more. However, unlike going to a wedding in a small ballroom for 3 or 4 hours, at WDW you aren't likely to be in close contact with a positive person for more than 15 minutes and certainly not without a mask which is the guideline for high risk. In addition, guests at a wedding (or people in a nightclub) are likely to have long, close interactions with many other attendees from other households, guests at WDW (especially under current protocols) don't.

Also, there is a lower likelihood that the positive person/people at either an event or WDW are currently contagious as a person isn't contagious the entire time they are infected.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The percent positive for "newly tested" is a pretty useless stat.

Tell that to DeSantis.

 

[DisneyCane]

And of course, also excellent decision-making...as evidenced here:

Florida government declares college football more important than COVID vaccine

It’s pretty easy to feel hopeless after the past week. There have been far more dangerous, frightening, and completely deflating examples of how our priorities and perceptions have been borked beyond repair. So to find comedy in the state of Florida putting a halt to COVID testing and...

www.google.com

And, of course, Hard Rock Stadium and the parking lot is privately owned and either donating or renting the parking lot space to the State of Florida to use for testing and vaccination. There is no decision to make. Neither Governor Desantis nor anybody else in the Government can order that Hard Rock Stadium cancel the game so that the testing and vaccination is uninterrupted.

Somebody should also tell the author that this terrible "decision" was made on 13 previous days when testing was not done at the site (8 Miami Dolphins games, 5 Miami Hurricanes games and the Orange Bowl Game).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The percent positive for "newly tested" is a pretty useless stat. They are basically saying that it is worse to test positive if you've never been tested before than it is for somebody whos job or desire has them tested often. Most people getting tested who have never been tested before are more likely to be getting the test because they have symptoms or were tested due to contact tracing which makes them more likely to be positive. I don't know of too many people who aren't required to who just go and get tested multiple times out of curiosity. The percent positive for new cases is a much more relevant "surveillance" statistic and metric of test capacity.

As for the likelihood of a positive person being at an event of 100 people and relating that to WDW. If you go to a park at WDW, it is 100% likely that at least one person there will be positive. I don't have time to calculate but I'd guess that it is 100% likely that at least 100 people there are positive and there are likely more. However, unlike going to a wedding in a small ballroom for 3 or 4 hours, at WDW you aren't likely to be in close contact with a positive person for more than 15 minutes and certainly not without a mask which is the guideline for high risk. In addition, guests at a wedding (or people in a nightclub) are likely to have long, close interactions with many other attendees from other households, guests at WDW (especially under current protocols) don't.

Also, there is a lower likelihood that the positive person/people at either an event or WDW are currently contagious as a person isn't contagious the entire time they are infected.

It’s “patience” that’s a virtue...

...not “persistence”

 

[DisneyCane]

Tell that to DeSantis.

Huh? When does he ever quote percent positive for newly tested? That is not included on the State reporting. The State reports overall positive and percent positive for new cases.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s “patience” that’s a virtue...

...not “persistence”

Your comments are always so enlightening. My life gets better every time I read them!

 

[DisneyCane]

Current vaccine report for Florida -

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The overdue vaccinations continue to concern me. Of all the criticisms this should be something to be questioned and criticized. 19.7% of the people who got the Pfizer vaccine very early in the process have not gotten the second shot on time. These were all either healthcare workers or long term care residents and staff. These groups should be among the easiest to keep on schedule. The overdue percentage is bound to go up when the second shots are due for the general public 65+ that got the first shot. To me, this is an alarming percentage of people that will not have nearly the full effectiveness of the vaccine.

 

[John park hopper]

Scary thought---- these healthcare workers can't keep to a shot schedule for their own health and they are supposedly taking car of you

 

[MisterPenguin]

Huh? When does he ever quote percent positive for newly tested? That is not included on the State reporting. The State reports overall positive and percent positive for new cases.

My apologies, I got "newly tested" and "new cases" mixed up.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Your comments are always so enlightening. My life gets better every time I read them!

I wish I could say the same!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Scary thought---- these healthcare workers can't keep to a shot schedule for their own health and they are supposedly taking car of you

The healthcare workers are not the problem. By saying they are your missing the whole point.
Edit: just reread your post and it could be taken 2 ways. Apologies if I took it the wrong way. Give me a 50/50 shot and I usually go the wrong way.

 

[GoofGoof]

The overdue vaccinations continue to concern me. Of all the criticisms this should be something to be questioned and criticized. 19.7% of the people who got the Pfizer vaccine very early in the process have not gotten the second shot on time. These were all either healthcare workers or long term care residents and staff. These groups should be among the easiest to keep on schedule. The overdue percentage is bound to go up when the second shots are due for the general public 65+ that got the first shot. To me, this is an alarming percentage of people that will not have nearly the full effectiveness of the vaccine.

I wonder how much is just reporting delays. We already know there is at least a 3 day lag between inoculation and reporting to the state and then at least another day or more to get to the CDC and in some areas it’s probably longer. If the calculation just takes the number of new people vaccinated more than 3 weeks ago and compares it to the number reported to have gotten their 2nd shot then the lag could explain quite a bit of that.

Fine print from the CDC tracker:
Healthcare providers report doses to federal, state, territorial, and local agencies up to 72 hours after administration. There may be additional lag for data to be transmitted from the federal, state, territorial, or local agency to CDC. A large difference between the number of doses distributed and the number of people initiating vaccination is expected at this point in the COVID vaccination program due to several factors, including delays in reporting of administered doses and management of available vaccine stocks by jurisdictions and federal pharmacy partners.

 

[DisneyCane]

I wonder how much is just reporting delays. We already know there is at least a 3 day lag between inoculation and reporting to the state and then at least another day or more to get to the CDC and in some areas it’s probably longer. If the calculation just takes the number of new people vaccinated more than 3 weeks ago and compares it to the number reported to have gotten their 2nd shot then the lag could explain quite a bit of that.

Fine print from the CDC tracker:
Healthcare providers report doses to federal, state, territorial, and local agencies up to 72 hours after administration. There may be additional lag for data to be transmitted from the federal, state, territorial, or local agency to CDC. A large difference between the number of doses distributed and the number of people initiating vaccination is expected at this point in the COVID vaccination program due to several factors, including delays in reporting of administered doses and management of available vaccine stocks by jurisdictions and federal pharmacy partners.

I hope so but the numbers I'm looking at for Florida are on the State Vaccination Report. Maybe somebody from the media can ask the health department about this.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Pointing to upper New York staters being "rural upstate types" doesn't explain what's happening in other states such as California (which has had a stay at home order since December 1), Rhode Island (which has been bad for months), New Jersey (which had a recent spike), or Connecticut (which has had several spikes despite having really good numbers in the fall).

California has its share of "rural upstate types" in the central valley. We have friends there and their level of denial or "it's just us, we can do what we want" is stunning. Five or six cases from extended family gatherings so far. And that's just among our friends. And these are educated, smart, kind, generous, successful people.

That's not the only answer, of course. It's surely more complex than that.

I watch NJ like a hawk because my congregation is open for worship, and we have a food bank, feeding program, thrift shop, and homeless program, all open. So far, with our guidelines, we have not had a single case of spread on property since opening last July. Same is true of the Episcopal diocese as a whole (individuals have tested positive, but no spread to other people in the same place at the same time), so we have a very high confidence in our protocols (masking, distancing, capacity limitations).

From what I see, people are very good about distancing and masking. However, we aren't under "draconian measures." Many things are open (albeit under limitations), people are out and about, etc. I think there may be a hidden story in the schools that may not be getting out. The number of private schools that have had to go virtual because of spread among students is pretty high.

We are also a densely populated state, though my county, number 2 in worst cases right now, is not that dense.

Overall, the government has basically decided that if the hospitals can handle it, they're going to do their best to keep things open and running. They've been clear that without economic help, shutting down broad swaths is basically economic suicide.

So far, knock wood, the hospitals have been doing OK. Not great, but OK. I'm deeply concerned about one hospital in the area where two parishioners became COVID positive after long-term stays for other reasons. Nothing at all like last Spring, overall, even though our numbers are way higher than last Spring.

If I had to guess, I would say younger people (middle age and less) not following rules, and unwise private large gatherings.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Scary thought---- these healthcare workers can't keep to a shot schedule for their own health and they are supposedly taking car of you

Actually it's not's though John. The nurses in my family have been at it for over 6 months. my great niece, a respiratory nurse here at the hospital of the university of Penn hasn't seen the light of day (figuratively speaking) since last summer. She and 4 other nurses have rented a small apartment because they don't want to get their families infected, anyhoo they are doing their job to the point of neglecting themselves. Doesn't surprise me that they forget or that administration is stretched to a very thin point.

It's a very common scenario with family caretakers of elderly parents especially the "sandwich" generation, the ones who also have kids. they have to be reminded to take care of themselves. If they go down both the kids and the elders are in trouble.