Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[danlb_2000]

"The Food and Drug Administration released a detailed analysis Tuesday morning of the COVID-19 vaccine from drugmaker Moderna that supports the authorization of the company's vaccine for emergency use.

The FDA's briefing document along with one from Moderna were posted two days before a group of experts will convene to advise the agency on whether to grant the vaccine emergency authorization for use, or EUA, during the pandemic.

The agency's analysis finds the vaccine has a "favorable safety profile" and that there are "no specific safety concerns identified that would preclude issuance of an EUA." Serious reactions were rare. Side effects are common, however, with a majority of study volunteers experiencing pain at the site of injection, fatigue and headaches.

The analysis also affirms the effectiveness of the vaccine. It is 95% overall, assessed at least two weeks after the second dose of vaccine. The vaccine shots are given 28 days apart.

The vaccine is less effective in older people, the FDA analysis finds. For people ages 18 to less than 65, the effectiveness is 96%, compared with 86% for people 65 and older."

FDA Analysis Of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Finds It Effective And Safe

Two days before a panel of experts is set to review Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine and advise the Food and Drug Administration, documents show the vaccine is 94% effective and well-tolerated.

www.npr.org

Here is a link to the briefing document -

https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download

Do we know if Pfizer's has lower effectivity for older people?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Do we know if Pfizer's has lower effectivity for older people?

Looking at the vaccine efficacy data that was published in the NEJM for each age group (I'm quoting directly from the chart in the article):

95.6% for 16-55 years old.
93.7% for 56-65
94.7% for 66-75
100% for greater than 75.

However, the number of cases were probably too low to claim statistical significance among the differences. The article doesn't specifically claim this, but I doubt you can draw firm conclusions on subgroup efficacy from only 8 total cases among the greater than 18,000 who received the vaccine.

We might start to see bigger differences in the age groups as more people receive the vaccine.

I haven't seen the Moderna data yet, but the same situation might apply... not enough cases in the treatment group to draw firm enough conclusions about statistically significant differences in the subgroups.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In a way...are we really lucky that this virus seems to be so “stable”?? Or am I wrong in thinking vaccine development was fairly straightforward (relatively speaking) here?

 

[SamusAranX]

In a way...are we really lucky that this virus seems to be so “stable”?? Or am I wrong in thinking vaccine development was fairly straightforward (relatively speaking) here?

Yes; it could be ALOT worse. Not "apocalypse" level, but history has had more virulent pandemics; both the Spanish Influenza and Black Death had higher death rates. At the same time, still need to be vigilant.

Add the stunning but welcome development of a quick vaccine and we are looking at some good breaks (eventually)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes; it could be ALOT worse. Not "apocalypse" level, but history has had more virulent pandemics; both the Spanish Influenza and Black Death had higher death rates. At the same time, still need to be vigilant.

Right...but those weren’t in the information/computer age.

We’ve just been stupid.

That was long before HVAC and they barely had anything classifying as “soap”

 

[Heppenheimer]

In a way...are we really lucky that this virus seems to be so “stable”?? Or am I wrong in thinking vaccine development was fairly straightforward (relatively speaking) here?

I heard a discussion on this matter. One of the reasons why SARS2-CoV2 is so virulent is the infamous "spike" protein. It seems to have quickly evolved into an almost perfect fit for its intended target. This exerts a very strong selective pressure to maintain the same conformation of the spike protein, since a mutation that weakens this bond likely won't reproduce nearly as efficiently as the existing strand. And as long as the spike protein doesn't change that much, the immune response from the vaccine should be able to continue to recognize it.

Of course, if the spike protein mutates into an even tighter fit AND it differs enough that the induced antibodies and Tcells can't recognize it anymore... then we're screwed... or spiked... or whatever you want to call it. This is all the more reason to try to limit cases to as low numbers as possible, although so much for that approach.

FYI... I find that too many people have a super hero comic book understanding of the concept of gene mutations. Most mutations don't result in super powers, they result in a defective version of the protein they encode.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I heard a discussion on this matter. One of the reasons why SARS2-CoV2 is so virulent is the infamous "spike" protein. It seems to have quickly evolved into an almost perfect fit for its intended target. This exerts a very strong selective pressure to maintain the same conformation of the spike protein, since a mutation that weakens this bond likely won't reproduce nearly as efficiently as the existing strand. And as long as the spike protein doesn't change that much, the immune response from the vaccine should be able to continue to recognize it.

Of course, if the spike protein mutates into an even tighter fit AND it differs enough that the induced antibodies and Tcells can't recognize it anymore... then we're screwed... or spiked... or whatever you want to call it. This is all the more reason to try to limit cases to as low numbers as possible, although so much for that approach.

FYI... I find that too many people have a super hero comic book understanding of the concept of gene mutations. Most mutations don't result in super powers, they result in a defective version of the protein they encode.

The next huge failure (in a very long string) will be the widespread belief the end is near.

In my supposedly affluent town the mood has shifted these last few weeks and has been even more complaining about remote learning and cancellations of sports/gatherings.

I mean - can’t miss your junior year lacrosse season...how would you continue to live?

Grandma is dead...but don’t sweat the small
Stuff

 

[easyrowrdw]

FYI... I find that too many people have a super hero comic book understanding of the concept of gene mutations. Most mutations don't result in super powers, they result in a defective version of the protein they encode.

Which ones do?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Which ones do?

The ones that let you play with vibranium or adamantiun

 

[Disney Experience]

Have you been to Norway? Very little about that country reminds me of the US at all.

Was not implying Norway nor Sweden was culturally like USA. I was more contrasting Sweden’s per capita rate given what I wrongly thought was a complete voluntary covid mitigation, to the USA which had a sporadic sometimes mandatory lockdowns. I never thought they were culturally or environmentally similiar.
The reason I put Norway in the chart was to get a reference point more similair to Sweden in culture and environment, but not so relaxed about covid. Never implied that Sweden nor Norway had similiar culture to the USA.

Genetically I am about 25% Norwegian so do plan to visit that country someday. Always liked the looks of it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Genetically I am about 25% Norwegian so do plan to visit that country someday. Always liked the looks of it.

You don’t need to bother to go there....you can go have breakfast with the princesses and do a meet and greet with Olaf to get the same exposure

 

[Heppenheimer]

Which ones do?

The appearance of light skin on the cloudy prehistoric northern Eurasian steppe would have seemed like a superpower. All that extra vitamin D and the bone strength that it promoted.

 

[HauntedPirate]

You don’t need to bother to go there....you can go have breakfast with the princesses and do a meet and greet with Olaf to get the same exposure

You mean my wife and I didn’t have to go to Paris, she could have just run a half marathon at WDW, we could have then visited the France pavilion and gotten the same experience??? Now you tell me! I’m wondering where the pickpocketers are, though. And the cheap trinkets... oh wait, the gift shops, got it.

 

[Kevin_W]

Genetically I am about 25% Norwegian so do plan to visit that country someday. Always liked the looks of it.

It was beautiful - I'd highly recommend visiting. The hike up to Kjeragbolten is possibly my favorite hike we've done, though stepping onto the boulder is somewhat terrifying. (My wife in the picture

Kjerag - Tammy on the Rock by Kevin, on Flickr

 

[DCBaker]

"Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) for the first over-the-counter (OTC) fully at-home diagnostic test for COVID-19. The Ellume COVID-19 Home Test is a rapid, lateral flow antigen test, a type of test that runs a liquid sample along a surface with reactive molecules. The test detects fragments of proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus from a nasal swab sample from any individual 2 years of age or older."

“Today’s authorization is a major milestone in diagnostic testing for COVID-19. By authorizing a test for over- the-counter use, the FDA allows it to be sold in places like drug stores, where a patient can buy it, swab their nose, run the test and find out their results in as little as 20 minutes,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “As we continue to authorize additional tests for home use, we are helping expand Americans’ access to testing, reducing the burden on laboratories and test supplies, and giving Americans more testing options from the comfort and safety of their own homes.”

"Similar to other antigen tests, a small percentage of positive and negative results from this test may be false. Therefore, for patients without symptoms, positive results should be treated as presumptively positive until confirmed by another test as soon as possible. This is especially true if there are fewer infections in a particular community, as false positive results can be more common when antigen tests are used in populations where there is little COVID-19 (low prevalence).

The FDA reminds patients that all tests can experience false negative and false positive results. Individuals with positive results should self-isolate and seek additional care from their health care provider. Individuals who test negative and experience COVID-like symptoms should follow up with their health care provider as negative results do not preclude an individual from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The Ellume COVID-19 Home Test uses a mid-turbinate nasal swab (sample is collected further back than the usual nasal swab, but not as far back as nasopharyngeal swabs, which are only appropriate for use by a trained health care provider) to detect certain proteins of the virus known as antigens. The Ellume COVID-19 Home Test correctly identified 96% of positive samples and 100% of negative samples in individuals with symptoms. In people without symptoms, the test correctly identified 91% of positive samples and 96% of negative samples. The Ellume COVID-19 Home Test uses an analyzer that connects with a software application on a smartphone to help users perform the test and interpret results. Results are delivered in as little as 20 minutes to individuals via their smartphone. The mobile application requires individuals to input their zip code and date of birth, with optional fields including name and e-mail address, and reports the results as appropriate to public health authorities to monitor disease prevalence. Ellume expects to produce more than three million tests in January 2021."

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes Antigen Test as First Over-the-Counter Fully At-Home Diagnostic Test for COVID-19

Today, the FDA issued an EUA for the first over-the-counter (OTC) fully at-home diagnostic test for COVID-19

www.fda.gov

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It was beautiful - I'd highly recommend visiting. The hike up to Kjeragbolten is possibly my favorite hike we've done, though stepping onto the boulder is somewhat terrifying. (My wife in the picture

Kjerag - Tammy on the Rock by Kevin, on Flickr

Great pic but that’s insane. I’m getting whoozy just looking at it.

 

[Heppenheimer]

It was beautiful - I'd highly recommend visiting. The hike up to Kjeragbolten is possibly my favorite hike we've done, though stepping onto the boulder is somewhat terrifying. (My wife in the picture

Kjerag - Tammy on the Rock by Kevin, on Flickr

Oslo is easily one of my favorite European capitals.

 

[Kevin_W]

Oslo is easily one of my favorite European capitals.

Oslo was nice, but didn't do nearly as much for me as Paris, Edinburgh, or Rome. I'm glad I visited once, but if I went to Norway again I'd fly straight to Bergen and spend more time in fjordland.

Hopefully, we can all travel again sometime soon!

 

[Heppenheimer]

Oslo was nice, but didn't do nearly as much for me as Paris, Edinburgh, or Rome. I'm glad I visited once, but if I went to Norway again I'd fly straight to Bergen and spend more time in fjordland.

Hopefully, we can all travel again sometime soon!

The clean, low key vibe did it for me.

I also visited Trondheim once as a day trip from Åre in Sweden. I can't claim that Trondheim is the most fantastic place on Earth (certainly nicer than most US cities, though), but the drive down from the mountains towards the Norwegian coast was stunning. Some of the villages I drove through looked like they haven't changed since the 19th century, other than general upkeep.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 79 new reported deaths, along with 15 Non-Florida Resident deaths.