Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

The 52% efficacy after first shot is based on the Phase 3 study. But no vaccinated Phase 3 participants (Unless they are dropped from the study) received only one shot. So the 52% efficacy is base on 3 weeksX15000 participants. True efficacy of a single shot could be more or less. While the two shot 95% is base on 15000x8 weeks and counting. (For example I am close to three months post my second Pfizer shot).
When they did Phase 1 they tried a stronger dose as a single dose (100 vs 30 they chose), as well as two different two dose(10 and 30, with the second shot being the same as the first). That is when they decided the best choice to move to phase 2/3 was a two dose shot sequence. The single dose had more side effects in their small phase 1 sample, and (I do not have the data in front of me) I assume not enough additional (or even less) efficacy benefit. Will they in the future perhaps look at a different single does? Perhaps.


I understand why there is a legitimate discussion on the merits when people are dying everyday on getting more people to 52% vs getting half as many to 95%. That is not total stupidity. But going away from the phase 3 study protocol in number of doses or even timeline is doing one's own new "study". Is the risk vs benefit really there?

One dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine offers some protection. But experts say you still need the second shot - The Boston Globe

The FDA is close to approving the Pfizer vaccine based on a two-dose regimen. Getting only one shot would mean less protection for people, infectious disease experts say. And no one knows how long that protection might last.

www.bostonglobe.com

Now concerning people taking just one shot vs the two shots, because they think the second shot is just a "booster". Well they are foolish in my opinion. 95% is much better than ~52%. How much inconvenience is it to take two shots?

Yes, I agree with all of this. I actually said I thought they should send out enough vaccine in 2020 to cover the 24 million people in the initial phase even though that’s more than half the 40M total doses expected, but that plan assumes that the first 8 million doses that come in Jan combined with the 16M doses left from 2020 are used for the 2nd shot of that initial 24M. The second shots should come in whatever timeline is set by the manufacturer and then we move on to the next group.

 

[Flugell]

Ok from the U.K.. I personally don’t feel that the virus has been dramatically political. I believe that mistakes have been made, but then this is a new situation for everyone so there is little experience to draw on, this is a problem virtually worldwide. I genuinely believe that the government has tried to maintain life, albeit unsuccessfully, as their primary goal. They have also supported many individuals and businesses with payouts and/or interest free loans. Some people have slipped through the net which is tragic but the majority have been protected to a lesser or greater extent.
To be fair to the opposition, Labour Party, they have, until recently mostly supported Boris Johnson but now seem to want to score political points whilst not clearly stating what they would have done/ would do differently.
The previous Labour leader’s brother has been arrested several times for breaking rules so I am so glad Jeremy Corbin is not in charge.
The Mayor of Manchester (sort of Governor) had an argument with Boris about businesses without ever mentioning the possible/likely loss of life from opening businesses which as a citizen of Manchester I found utterly appalling and terrifying.
However I do firmly believe that every political element is doing their best to preserve life and the economy. Sadly we are not really succeeding in either - but very few countries on earth are.
As in the USA there are some who follow the rules and some who don’t but personally I don’t feel it is a political decision, just fatigue, selfishness or a misguided belief that it won’t happen to them. Keep your distance, wash your hands and wear a mask, I have a Manchester United one which is definitely political where I live!
Take care, stay safe and enjoy Christmas as safely as possible!

 

[GoofGoof]

I would be puzzled by a state holding back a lot of the shots in fear of supply chain issues if the federal government is already doing a large hedge against that risk. Having both Federal and State hedging by hold back doses is mostly redundant.

DeSantis said that FL was not holding any doses back because the manufacturer was already doing that. He said all the doses sent in Dec would be used right away and then they would get more doses in Jan for those people to get the second shot.

 

[sullyinMT]

I would be puzzled by a state holding back a lot of the shots in fear of supply chain issues if the federal government is already doing a large hedge against that risk. Having both Federal and State hedging by hold back doses is mostly redundant.

Sloui (sp?) was on CBS this morning saying the federal government, in conjunction with Pfizer logistics, was holding back the necessary doses and that as manufacturing proved effective and timely, they may well start holding back less or none at all.
While I’m with @GoofGoof in wanting as many vaccinated as quickly as possible, I guess we can wait a few weeks/a month to make sure the supply chain holds. Especially after Pfizer’s initial manufacturing hiccup was announced a couple weeks ago.

 

[Kevin_W]

FAKE NEWS. They forgot to include the microchip in the list.

As long as I'm getting the Bill Gates microchip. I don't want a cheap knock-off.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The 52% efficacy after first shot is based on the Phase 3 study. But no vaccinated Phase 3 participants (Unless they are dropped from the study) received only one shot. So the 52% efficacy is base on 3 weeksX15000 participants. True efficacy of a single shot could be more or less. While the two shot 95% is base on 15000x8 weeks and counting. (For example I am close to three months post my second Pfizer shot).
When they did Phase 1 they tried a stronger dose as a single dose (100 vs 30 they chose), as well as two different two dose(10 and 30, with the second shot being the same as the first). That is when they decided the best choice to move to phase 2/3 was a two dose shot sequence. The single dose had more side effects in their small phase 1 sample, and (I do not have the data in front of me) I assume not enough additional (or even less) efficacy benefit. Will they in the future perhaps look at a different single does? Perhaps.


I understand why there is a legitimate discussion on the merits when people are dying everyday on getting more people to 52% vs getting half as many to 95%. That is not total stupidity. But going away from the phase 3 study protocol in number of doses or even timeline is doing one's own new "study". Is the risk vs benefit really there?

One dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine offers some protection. But experts say you still need the second shot - The Boston Globe

The FDA is close to approving the Pfizer vaccine based on a two-dose regimen. Getting only one shot would mean less protection for people, infectious disease experts say. And no one knows how long that protection might last.

www.bostonglobe.com

Now concerning people taking just one shot vs the two shots, because they think the second shot is just a "booster". Well they are foolish in my opinion. 95% is much better than ~52%. How much inconvenience is it to take two shots?

Stay the course.

Do what the smart people tell you.

Know your role.


Somedays I wish my grandparents would walk back out of the cornfield and smack everyone who doesn’t fall in line here.

Isolate and wait for the two doses If you have too...it’s temporary

 

[GoofGoof]

Sweden may need to reach out to neighbors for a lifeline as hospitals reach capacity. They have had 1,400 deaths in the last month compared to 180 in Norway and Finland combined. The population of Sweden is roughly the same as those 2 countries combined but over 7 times the deaths. Clearly the “plan” has not panned out well

Sweden's neighbours offer them emergency help as its hospitals fill up with coronavirus patients

Sweden is grappling with an alarming second wave of coronavirus infections as intensive care units in Stockholm reach capacity.

news.yahoo.com

 

[DCBaker]

 

[danlb_2000]

As long as I'm getting the Bill Gates microchip. I don't want a cheap knock-off.

The Bill Gates microchip IS the cheap knock-off.

 

[Disney Experience]

The Bill Gates microchip IS the cheap knock-off.

China will provide one with built in 5G .


Of course the phone company beat us to this over fifty years ago:
Wikipedia: The President's Analyst 1967

TPC has developed a "modern electronic miracle", the Cerebrum Communicator (CC), a microelectronic device that can communicate wirelessly with any other CC in the world. With the CC implanted in the brain, a user need only think of the phone number to be called, and is instantly connected, thus eliminating the need for The Phone Company's massive and expensive wired infrastructure. For this to work, every human being will be assigned a number instead of a name, and will have the CC implanted prenatally. Schaefer is to be forced to assist the TPC scheme by blackmailing the president to pushing through the required legislation.

The President's Analyst - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DCBaker]

"Health Secretary Matt Hancock said at least 60 different local authorities had recorded Covid infections caused by the new variant.

He said the World Health Organization had been notified and UK scientists were doing detailed studies.

He said there was "nothing to suggest" it caused worse disease or that vaccines would no longer work.

He told MPs in the House of Commons that over the last week, there had been sharp, exponential rises in coronavirus infections across London, Kent, parts of Essex and Hertfordshire.

"We've currently identified over 1,000 cases with this variant predominantly in the South of England although cases have been identified in nearly 60 different local authority areas.

"We do not know the extent to which this is because of the new variant but no matter its cause we have to take swift and decisive action which unfortunately is absolutely essential to control this deadly disease while the vaccine is rolled out."

"England's Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty said current coronavirus swab tests would detect the new variant that has been found predominantly in Kent and neighbouring areas in recent weeks.

The changes or mutations involve the spike protein of the virus - the part that helps it infect cells, and the target Covid vaccines are designed around.

It is too soon to know exactly what this will do to the behaviour of the virus.
Prof Alan McNally, an expert at the University of Birmingham, told the BBC: "Let's not be hysterical. It doesn't mean it's more transmissible or more infectious or dangerous.

"It is something to keep an eye on.

"Huge efforts are ongoing at characterising the variant and understanding its emergence. It is important to keep a calm and rational perspective on the strain as this is normal virus evolution and we expect new variants to come and go and emerge over time."
Dr Jeremy Farrar, Director of Wellcome, said it was potentially serious. "The surveillance and research must continue and we must take the necessary steps to stay ahead of the virus."

'New variant' of coronavirus identified in England

The new strain may be growing faster in some parts of the country, Health Secretary tells MPs.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sweden may need to reach out to neighbors for a lifeline as hospitals reach capacity. They have had 1,400 deaths in the last month compared to 180 in Norway and Finland combined. The population of Sweden is roughly the same as those 2 countries combined but over 7 times the deaths. Clearly the “plan” has not panned out well

Sweden's neighbours offer them emergency help as its hospitals fill up with coronavirus patients

Sweden is grappling with an alarming second wave of coronavirus infections as intensive care units in Stockholm reach capacity.

news.yahoo.com

You mean the master example of public “strength” and freedom that would have allowed character breakfast to resume in CRT by May if we hadn’t been too stupid and followed??

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DeSantis said that FL was not holding any doses back because the manufacturer was already doing that. He said all the doses sent in Dec would be used right away and then they would get more doses in Jan for those people to get the second shot.

But Florida didn’t need the vaccine...remember when Ron and creepy pence stood there and told everyone how they weren’t stupid like New York?

I guess the “silly” can have the vaccine...Ron can have the bleach

 

[DCBaker]

 

[GoofGoof]

You mean the master example of public “strength” and freedom that would have allowed character breakfast to resume in CRT by May if we hadn’t been too stupid and followed??

Yeah, it was just the end of Sept or Oct where someone here was saying that Sweden had beaten the virus and the pandemic was over there and they weren’t going to have a 2nd wave. That didn’t age well

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah, it was just the end of Sept or Oct where someone here was saying that Sweden had beaten the virus and the pandemic was over there and they weren’t going to have a 2nd wave. That didn’t age well

Uninformed stupidity rarely does

 

[Disney Experience]

Yeah, it was just the end of Sept or Oct where someone here was saying that Sweden had beaten the virus and the pandemic was over there and they weren’t going to have a 2nd wave. That didn’t age well

Yep, their way does not seem to be a quick way to herd immunity.

But they are doing better than we (USA) are. But worse than their neighbors. So someone could argue their way was better than ours. But I think there are more variables involved than just shutdowns.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep, thre way does not seem to be a quick way to herd immunity.

But they are doing better than we (USA) are. But worse than their neighbors. So someone could argue their way was better than ours. But I think there are more variables involved than just shutdowns.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Their way...though wrong...was consistent and based on a theory.

Ours was infiltrated/sabotaged by arrogance and nonsense.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well they are doing better than we (USA) are. But worse than their neighbors. So someone could argue their way was better than ours. But I think there are more variables involved than just shutdowns.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

That’s a low bar to set unfortunately

The US death number per million did pass Sweden in this latest Fall wave here, but they are catching up again

 

[Disney Experience]

That’s a low bar to set unfortunately

The US death number per million did pass Sweden in this latest Fall wave here, but they are catching up again

Yep. the reason I put USA and Norway in was to compare doing mitigation different ways. Empirically, Sweden's way resulted in less cases than our way, but much, much more than their neighbor Norway. So of the three, the way Norway approached the problem resulted in better results than USA or Sweden. Norway is also a closer cultural match than the USA. But put USA in to see if the no shutdown method of Sweden is worse than our sometimes we shutdown way.