Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

I am not sure how I feel about this

It's kind of why the virus response will always be partly political. If left solely to health professionals, restrictions would be extended as long as possible. The response after a vaccine is widely available will have to balance the concerns of health professionals with those of businesses (especially entertainment-oriented ones like restaurants, theaters and theme parks), workplaces and the general public. It will be interesting to see how things play out, but no one knows with much certainty what will happen in the next few months.

 

[WillWrambles]

Ok. Is there evidence that it isn't? Here's the Post saying you need a second shot and calling it a booster. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

Who is saying otherwise?

Nobody on this forum, so far, is saying otherwise. It‘s just that the name “booster” gives the connotation of an optional shot, and that sort of misunderstanding is not optimal during a pandemic.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't have time right now but maybe someone can find the transcript, audio or video of exactly what Desantis said in context. I also believe that article is quoting something from before the EUA was issued.

The link below has his full statement from Thursday. Nothing in it references one way or the other if he is planning a one dose plan.

COVID-19 | Florida Department of Health

COVID-19

floridahealthcovid19.gov

Either way, by Florida law the "State Health Official" (who I think is the surgeon general) is the one who should be making these decisions. I don't know what is going on officially but it could be that Desantis is just making announcements but isn't making decisions.

It‘s 7 min into the video in the attached story which was from a round table on Friday.

Gov. DeSantis talks COVID-19 vaccine distribution in Florida

The highly anticipated distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in Florida took center stage on Friday in Tampa.

www.wflx.com

The quote in the other article was accurate and he does reference the NYT OpEd that advocates giving everyone the first shot before anyone gets the second shot. He isn’t saying that’s the plan FL will use, just that he thinks it’s a good idea. He also references that the company itself is holding back the doses for the second shot so they don’t have to hold any back themselves. In other words even if he wanted to do the one dose plan he really can’t so it’s a non-story.

 

[danlb_2000]

Me. I majored in biology, took all the necessary premed science courses, plus 8 credit hours of biostatistics, attended medical school and am board certified in family medicine. I'm also certified to act as a flight surgeon, which involves some extra course work in preventative medicine, amongst other topics.

And I can safely say in my professional opinion, having read your posts for several months, that the country would be far worse off if your preferred mitigation strategies were followed.

 

[jmp85]

I think the government and policy makers have to do a good job to transition the mitigations instead of holding firm once herb immunity is within grasp. I just feel a lot of people have reached a point of substantial Covid Fatique (irrespective of whether anyone feels it is justified or not, I just think that's the case and it is what it is) that they mentally will not be able to handle prolonged restrictions once the warm weather starts to arrive again and the vaccine starts to take an affect on the population. IMO it will be in everyone's best interest to smoothly transition and gradually loosen mitigation and actually show people this is really ending while not being irresponsible over it. It would also help if these policy makers can just articulate things better.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Fatigue is definitely setting in. Many (like myself) are trying to 'hold the rope' as long as we can, but it doesn't help when you start talking about 2022.

 

[sullyinMT]

Ok. Is there evidence that it isn't? Here's the Post saying you need a second shot and calling it a booster. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/health/covid-vaccine-states-distribution-doses/

Who is saying otherwise?

Nobody on this forum, so far, is saying otherwise. It‘s just that the name “booster” gives the connotation of an optional shot, and that sort of misunderstanding is not optimal during a pandemic.

Exactly. Nobody is saying otherwise. In fairness, though, it always seems to be a buried sentence or two in a larger article about distribution outlets or manufacturing slowdowns. A lot of people probably know it’s a two-dose regimen; the question is is it enough people who know that can help educate others.
I’d like to see outlets from national media to local news run stories on the importance of getting both and getting them on time. Maybe we’ll start seeing that now that we have EUA and a path to approval. Maybe FB and other social media can initiate a campaign where you “earn” a sticker for you wall by getting both shots. Sure, some will lie just to post. But all forms of gentle reminders and incentives should be explored for regimen completion.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think you hit the nail on the head. Fatigue is definitely setting in. Many (like myself) are trying to 'hold the rope' as long as we can, but it doesn't help when you start talking about 2022.

I get the fatigue part. I try not to let any of that bother me. I live my life the best I can. Wearing a mask is second nature now, so it's no big deal. I don't stress about that stuff as I can't control it.

 

[sullyinMT]

Considering the nature of the second shot, I’d dub it the “activator” or “accelerator“. Something to get the point across.

Fair. But with so many already using the term it’s probably already out of the bag. End user/patient education to the importance of completing both doses will be paramount

 

[WillWrambles]

Fair. But with so many already using the term it’s probably already out of the bag. End user/patient education to the importance of completing both doses will be paramount

As long as the public is informed, the name doesn’t matter.

 

[jmp85]

I get the fatigue part. I try not to let any of that bother me. I live my life the best I can. Wearing a mask is second nature now, so it's no big deal. I don't stress about that stuff as I can't control it.

Yeah I could handle wearing the mask a bit longer, that's not really an issue for me. It's more of feeling like I'm caged up in my house and need to avoid going out. I'll continue to be optimistic about the vaccine rollout, whatever keeps the spirits up.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Just out of curiosity, how many people commenting about "science" in this thread have any advanced scientific education? I do. Show of hands please and taking a biology class in college doesn't count. I mean people for whom science was an integral part of their education.

Not me. But in my clearly uneducated opinion I’m trusting the CDC, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, and countless other doctors and scientists over your opinion.

 

[GoofGoof]

Exactly. Nobody is saying otherwise. In fairness, though, it always seems to be a buried sentence or two in a larger article about distribution outlets or manufacturing slowdowns. A lot of people probably know it’s a two-dose regimen; the question is is it enough people who know that can help educate others.
I’d like to see outlets from national media to local news run stories on the importance of getting both and getting them on time. Maybe we’ll start seeing that now that we have EUA and a path to approval. Maybe FB and other social media can initiate a campaign where you “earn” a sticker for you wall by getting both shots. Sure, some will lie just to post. But all forms of gentle reminders and incentives should be explored for regimen completion.

Yes, and elected leaders should not publicly talk about the benefits of a plan that calls for only using a single dose. It’s reckless behavior. Even though there’s no way to actually implement that plan if people hear that narrative its easy to see at least some will not show up for the second dose and point to the Governor‘s speech as the reason why. I wish people could think for themselves and educate themselves but some will hear that and decide the second shot isn‘t needed. Foolish

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Yeah I could handle wearing the mask a bit longer, that's not really an issue for me. It's more of feeling like I'm caged up in my house and need to avoid going out. I'll continue to be optimistic about the vaccine rollout, whatever keeps the spirits up.

Same here. If everyone was being safe and doing their part to keep numbers down I would feel much better about getting out and going places with a mask.

I guess the people shouting “open up for the sake of the economy!!!” Don’t want people like us to get out and spend money.

 

[WillWrambles]

Same here. If everyone was being safe and doing their part to keep numbers down I would feel much better about getting out and going places with a mask.

I guess the people shouting “open up for the sake of the economy!!!” Don’t want people like us to get out and spend money.

And thus the circle of irony is complete.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Speaking of what to call the second dose...

I read through the NEJM article published on 10 December that outlined the BNT-Pfizer trial and its results. Nowhere in the article did the study authors refer to it as a "booster". They simply referred to it as a "second dose". I can't link the article, but let me quote what is probably the relevant text on why the second dose is necessary:

"Between the first dose and the second dose, 39 cases in the BNT162b2 group and 82 cases in the placebo group were observed..." Although that's better than nothing, one dose still leaves a significant number of people vulnerable to the virus.

So, this is probably similar to the MMR vaccine. You receive a second dose not as a "boost" to previously acquired and waning immunity, like in tetanus, but to increase the chances of obtaining immunity in the first case. I forget the exact numbers for the measles portion of MMR, but the first dose achieves immunity somewhere above 90% in all recipients. The second dose shoots this number just below 100%.

 

[mmascari]

You are focusing on "masks." I'm focusing on the part about no large indoor gatherings and social distancing (translation: restrictions).

As I asked above, what goal is he "right" about the methods required to achieve?
What the "science" tells us about what? Getting cases to zero? Deaths to zero? We don't "mitigate" for other diseases that don't meet that metric.

So tell me, what is the goal that "science" tells us needs to be done to accomplish?

How about percent positivity below a threshold that we're able to keep up with containment of infectious people?

I'm not sure exactly what that number is. It's definitely below 5%, probably below 1%. As we've said many times, tools used to reduce the spread are different when we know where spread is occurring. With a percent positivity below 1%, the mitigation efforts would be very different. No indoors and other significant restrictions are the bluntest of tools and only useful when the percent positivity is high.

Despite your repetition that it's the only thing anyone ever means and the only thing we could possibly do to reduce transmission and that combining using this with an absolute goal of zero is what everyone is means those things must do. It's easy to pick a fight when you deliberately misrepresent both the actions taken and the reasons for taking. Of course they don't work to do those things. And, yes, I'm assuming you're deliberately misrepresenting them all by now. It's been happing for a year. there's no way it's just a misunderstanding of a more nuanced item at this point.

 

[sbunit]

I get the fatigue part. I try not to let any of that bother me. I live my life the best I can. Wearing a mask is second nature now, so it's no big deal. I don't stress about that stuff as I can't control it.

The mask isn't the only thing. People want to go and travel again, shake hands and hug their peers and generally stop living in worry (not just worry over their health, worry that they don't slip up on their actions and offend anyone). The societal restrictions are taking a toll on a lot of people from many different avenues

 

[WillWrambles]

The mask isn't the only thing. People want to go and travel again, shake hands and hug their peers and generally stop living in worry (not just worry over their health, worry that they don't slip up on their actions and offend anyone). The societal restrictions are taking a toll on a lot of people from many different avenues

As long as this pandemic is still around, that won’t be happening. Sure, it’s incredibly frustrating to no longer be able to do all of these things, but the health of everyone around us is infinitely more important.

 

[GoofGoof]

Same here. If everyone was being safe and doing their part to keep numbers down I would feel much better about getting out and going places with a mask.

I guess the people shouting “open up for the sake of the economy!!!” Don’t want people like us to get out and spend money.

Sigh I’ve been saying this from day 1. The economy doesn‘t work effectively with only partial participation. The worse the situation is with cases the more people that will remove themselves even without being required to. So while it may seem that the best thing for a bar is to be open without restrictions that’s not necessarily the best case for the economy as a whole. For that individual bar some customers seems better than none, but if I own the retail store down the street or a restaurant practicing good distancing or even a theme park the increase in cases that results from the bars being open is detrimental to my business. The overall economic impact isn’t necessarily positive and could actually be negative. In an extreme example look at the economy in New Zealand. They had shut downs and an extreme drop in economic activity but that was followed by several multi-month periods with no cases at all. During those good periods the economy was open without masks or capacity limits including bars, restaurants, fans in the stands for sports and concerts, group gatherings including large weddings and parties all summer long. Clearly it was a huge economic win to have the extreme lockdowns there that people here called draconian and unthinkable.

 

[GoofGoof]

The mask isn't the only thing. People want to go and travel again, shake hands and hug their peers and generally stop living in worry (not just worry over their health, worry that they don't slip up on their actions and offend anyone). The societal restrictions are taking a toll on a lot of people from many different avenues

Yep, and the fastest way to get there is full acceptance of the vaccine and a continued following of the recommendations. We don’t need to see full herd immunity to see an impact on total cases, it’s not a light switch it’s a gradual reduction. The more people comply with recommendations the faster it will go. If we rely only on the vaccine it will take much longer. It’s like a person with high blood pressure. You can take medicine alone and wait for the results, but if you combine that with a change in diet and exercise your blood pressure will improve faster. Either way we will get to herd immunity eventually and we will get back to life as usual its just a matter of how long it takes and also how many of us are left to enjoy a return to normal. At today’s pace if we delay the process 90 days by not doing anything but wait for the vaccine that could mean thousands of extra deaths.