Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

Personally, I got a little tired of all the posters assuring everyone that masks will be around until "at least the end of 2021 and probably well into 2022." Not to mention all the ones who "guaranteed" a vaccine would not be available until 2022 "if at all." May 1 has a much better ring to it.

I know you think I’m pulling my dates out of an orifice but here’s a chart predicting how fast people will be vaccinated and when we can expect to reach the threshold for herd immunity. Can you tell the group approximately which group we will be through by May 1, and when we reach the herd immunity line? And it won’t be like turning off a faucet, virus will still be circulating after that point.

Now, if people believing that it will be May helps people behave in December, January and February, I think politicians will let people do that. But there is a reason Dr. Fauci is talking October, and that next year's Thanksgiving won't be completely normal (although better than this year).

This chart is by the Chair of the University of California - San Francisco Department of Medicine

 

[Heppenheimer]

This is why we need to go back to the days of Disney making educational short films.

If they don't listen to Fauci, then maybe Donald Duck or Goofy in a short like "How to Wear a Mask"?

I remember Jimminy Cricket giving lessons on neuroanatomy.

Now, we have "If you truly believe, your wishes will come true!" or, "Every girl is really a princess!"

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I remember Jimminy Cricket giving lessons on neuroanatomy.

Now, we have "If you truly believe, your wishes will come true!" or, "Every girl is really a princess!"

I’m still thinking “goofy teaches skiiing” is the gold standard

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

I know you think I’m pulling my dates out of an orifice but here’s a chart predicting how fast people will be vaccinated and when we can expect to reach the threshold for herd immunity. Can you tell the group approximately which group we will be through by May 1, and when we reach the herd immunity line? And it won’t be like turning off a faucet, virus will still be circulating after that point.

Now, if people believing that it will be May helps people behave in December, January and February, I think politicians will let people do that. But there is a reason Dr. Fauci is talking October, and that next year's Thanksgiving won't be completely normal (although better than this year).

This chart is by the Chair of the University of California - San Francisco Department of Medicine

It appears that DW & I chose well. No travel, until NOV 2021. We are 68.

 

[Chi84]

I had a little time and was reading the Florida Constitution and Florida Statutes.

A line from Johnny Depp in "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" comes to mind.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A line from Johnny Depp in "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" comes to mind.

But why is the rum gone?!?

 

[Chi84]

I know you think I’m pulling my dates out of an orifice but here’s a chart predicting how fast people will be vaccinated and when we can expect to reach the threshold for herd immunity. Can you tell the group approximately which group we will be through by May 1, and when we reach the herd immunity line? And it won’t be like turning off a faucet, virus will still be circulating after that point.

Now, if people believing that it will be May helps people behave in December, January and February, I think politicians will let people do that. But there is a reason Dr. Fauci is talking October, and that next year's Thanksgiving won't be completely normal (although better than this year).

This chart is by the Chair of the University of California - San Francisco Department of Medicine

I was just talking about mask mandates by governments and businesses in light of the president-elect's statement. Who knows how long the virus will be circulating. Some people may choose masks as the new normal - I certainly wouldn't discourage them. I also don't want to throw a wet blanket on anyone's pessimism.

 

[Chi84]

But why is the rum gone?!?

"You need to find yourself a girl, mate."

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was just talking about mask mandates by governments and businesses in light of the president-elect's statement. Who knows how long the virus will be circulating. Some people may choose masks as the new normal - I certainly wouldn't discourage them. I also don't want to throw a wet blanket on anyone's pessimism.

I think this is so simple it’s not a matter of law...

Leaders: we’ve determined that taking precautions in the short term to allow the medicine to work is the best chance to get back to normal...

To all the public who have cried about wanting “normal”: SHUT DA HELL UP and do it to get back to your normal. Think of it as “extended Halloween”...you can all play dress up and laugh about it.


...very simple. Which means it’s DOA

 

[Miss Bella]

That statement is patently false. You're in health care and the ACA has dramatically reshaped healthcare. The way politicians have chosen to respond (or not respond) to this pandemic has also affected you. Maybe you still have a job, are loved by your pets, fave a satisfactory bank account, and healthy family and friends (all good things), but that doesn't mean the political choices you and others have made haven't influenced your life.

I work I take care of patients and I get a pay check and nothing has really changed for me over the last 20 years. I’ve never noticed this reshaping of healthcare you speak of. The job has been the same. The bigggest changes have been in technology.
I don’t look at political figures as role models that influence my life. When I say it doesn’t affect my life I’m speaking in terms of my psyche.I don’t get riled up over it.
I vote for the candidate that most aligns with my preference for small government. Sometimes they win sometimes they lose life goes on.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think it was more of a comment that if people are asked to where a mask for 100 days, they'll assume Day 101 means no more masks needed. Whether it was a joke or not, I'm cynical enough to expect people to make that argument. And some will be right p****d that masks are still required.

Regardless of vaccine levels, I think masks will stay until *numbers* suggest they aren't needed. I also tried to point out that there are science-based questions as to whether or not vaccines prevent spread of COVID. Like a flea or mosquito, it could keep shedding from person to person until it finds a host it can attack. Until vaccinations are very widespread, that means healthy, vaccinated people can give COVID to vulnerable people. Now, if science shows the vaccine also presents spread, that's a different matter.

There's nuance in all of this, and I worry the population won't hav the patience for nuance. Or, as they say, the devil is in the details and we aren't very good at details unless we are figuring out how to conquer a Disney park.

I think you are correct on the comment. I just assumed it wasn’t possible that anyone could actually interpret the 100 day statement as an absolute date where masks would no longer be required...apparently I was wrong.

I agree there are a lot of variables. I think the 100 day campaign is an attempt to get people to realize that we are in the home stretch and the end is in site. I also believe that if people would just bear down a little more we could be out of this even sooner. If people spent those 100 days wearing masks and following other protocols the cases would drop further. We don’t need to reach 100% vaccinated or even herd immunity to see cases drop dramatically. If you combine vaccinations with the already existing protocols it could be possible that more restrictions are reversed by May 1. If people just do what they want because the end is in site it will take longer to return to normalcy.

I guess what I’m saying is there is variability either way. May 1 could be a pipe dream or it could be reality and it’s not just based on vaccinations, it’s based on our behavior too. I hope that enough people realize that reality.

 

[GoofGoof]

I know you think I’m pulling my dates out of an orifice but here’s a chart predicting how fast people will be vaccinated and when we can expect to reach the threshold for herd immunity. Can you tell the group approximately which group we will be through by May 1, and when we reach the herd immunity line? And it won’t be like turning off a faucet, virus will still be circulating after that point.

Now, if people believing that it will be May helps people behave in December, January and February, I think politicians will let people do that. But there is a reason Dr. Fauci is talking October, and that next year's Thanksgiving won't be completely normal (although better than this year).

This chart is by the Chair of the University of California - San Francisco Department of Medicine

Do we know what vaccine this is based off of? We have 2 that are about to reach EUA and there are 3 more in phase 3 trials. If all 5 of them or even 4 out of 5 are approved that cuts the timeline down substantially. With H1N1 we vaccinated over 90M people in a matter of a few months so the holdup would be supply from the manufacturers not capacity to vaccinate. With more than 2 vaccine candidates that bottleneck gets a lot better.

 

[hopemax]

Do we know what vaccine this is based off of? We have 2 that are about to reach EUA and there are 3 more in phase 3 trials. If all 5 of them or even 4 out of 5 are approved that cuts the timeline down substantially. With H1N1 we vaccinated over 90M people in a matter of a few months so the holdup would be supply from the manufacturers not capacity to vaccinate. With more than 2 vaccine candidates that bottleneck gets a lot better.

It is just for the Pfizer and the Moderna. People did comment about the AZ, J&J and Novovax as possible in first quarter. But how many chickens are we supposed to count while we are planning our Post pandemic life to start in May?

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Chi84]

I think this is so simple it’s not a matter of law...

Leaders: we’ve determined that taking precautions in the short term to allow the medicine to work is the best chance to get back to normal...

To all the public who have cried about wanting “normal”: SHUT DA HELL UP and do it to get back to your normal. Think of it as “extended Halloween”...you can all play dress up and laugh about it.


...very simple. Which means it’s DOA

I hope it's not DOA. People generally respond better if they are presented with a clear goal, and the 100 days gives us one. In any event, it's better than the previous plan of ignoring the virus because "it's just like a cold" or "it will go away with the warmer weather." The numbers are getting worse and the virus is everywhere now. I think people respond better when there is hope, and the development of multiple vaccines is providing that hope. More than ever, people need to hear positive messages and feel that there is an end in sight and that the precautions they take now can bring that end around more quickly. I wouldn't discount that happening.

 

[danlb_2000]

Do we know what vaccine this is based off of? We have 2 that are about to reach EUA and there are 3 more in phase 3 trials. If all 5 of them or even 4 out of 5 are approved that cuts the timeline down substantially. With H1N1 we vaccinated over 90M people in a matter of a few months so the holdup would be supply from the manufacturers not capacity to vaccinate. With more than 2 vaccine candidates that bottleneck gets a lot better.

I wonder if supply chain issues might become a problem with multiple vaccines in production?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hope it's not DOA. People generally respond better if they are presented with a clear goal, and the 100 days gives us one. In any event, it's better than the previous plan of ignoring the virus because "it's just like a cold" or "it will go away with the warmer weather." The numbers are getting worse and the virus is everywhere now. I think people respond better when there is hope, and the development of multiple vaccines is providing that hope. More than ever, people need to hear positive messages and feel that there is an end in sight and that the precautions they take now can bring that end around more quickly. I wouldn't discount that happening.

The problem is it’s still half measures...even in “strict states”
Like yours and mine.

Not a good idea:
Bars
Gyms
Indoor dining
Gatherings for athletic events (it’s not the kids...it’s the spread)
Malls
Nonsense shopping trips
And yes...
Walt Disney world.

Just not a smart way to go for the short term. If the messaging is the issue...then change the messaging. Hell - pay people for compliance. The longer the half stuff goes...the more it costs.

Let it end. Might actually take some effort and brains. The fact those things have been so de-emphasized for decades is really coming to light now.

Yesterday’s numbers were on the 1919 level. 3,157/102,000/213,000

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wonder if supply chain issues might become a problem with multiple vaccines in production?

Supply, storage and distribution are huge challenges.

I’ll say it again: public health experts were warning about infrastructure before the summer.

They could have approved and fast tracked a sub department under HSS by now...”bureau of health assets” or something...warehouses...transport...management and IT. A huge infrastructure program in an economic downtime. Ability to retrain and deploy even. Cause coal ain’t a’ comin’ Back.

But did anything happen? No. An election was prioritized...and in retrospect the mishandling cost the election.

When you’re a “loser”...you lose big. Now we all have to figure it out.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wonder if supply chain issues might become a problem with multiple vaccines in production?

I know Pfizer was worried about dry ice availability, especially with so many people ordering food shipped to their home during the pandemic. There was also a concern on the availability of vials and syringes at one point. It’s certainly a logistical nightmare.

 

[hopemax]

I wonder if supply chain issues might become a problem with multiple vaccines in production?

One of them, I don't remember which one, already said that for their initial batch, there was an issue. A problem with the quality of product delivered by their original supplier, and so they had to roll back estimates of how many they could initially deliver. They say now they are on track with a new supplier, but is it something that the remaining vaccines that aren't as far along may have to negotiate.

I also wonder, at what point do smaller countries start making noise about how many doses they are getting. I think Canada has already started agitating. So will the flow to the US slow down a little, after the high risk group to be a good global citizen?