Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red. In this update: Pfizer's updated timeline...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed:​

• $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)
• Though Warp Speed will pay for the vaccine and the CDC will guide distribution, Pfizer has not accepted any money in advance and they have set up their own distribution operations

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well).
• Late Oct or Nov.
• 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: ​

• Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.
• Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.
• Likely to get the governmental review before Thanksgiving which will show 90% effectiveness and completely safe (on the populations they tested)

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

 

[techgeek]

So if these findings are true, why shouldn’t we close gyms, cafes, restaurants, and hotels? Especially if “tamping down on foot traffic in these high-risk locations could have outsized positive effects on curbing infections?”

Well, the counter argument is that if done properly, most of those places can safely operate at a reduced capacity.

And perhaps we should for x number of weeks or until there’s a change in numbers. I’d like to see a few details (maybe they’re in the article) on gyms. How large are they and at what capacity are they limiting not only attendance, but spacing in the gym? Some, like an LA Fitness or Planet Fitness, are occupying old circuit cities and Toys r Usses. Others occupy one or two sublets in a strip mall and are claustrophobic on a good day. Also, what is mask compliance and enforcement for not only those working out but staff? The reason I ask those questions is that our YMCA has yet to be traced to an outbreak, but a couple smaller gyms have. Same with a few barber shops/nail salons and differences in compliance.

There’s a CrossFit gym in my area that I ride past often while on bike rides. It’s got 2 huge roll up doors that are always open, with fans blowing circulating air. People always seem well spaced and it’s not crowded at all. It’s obvious it can operate safely. It’s also obvious, like you say, that a strip mall gym with a couple machines crammed together is a bad idea all around.

But how do you structure a mandate to close one and not the other? Who selectively enforces it, perhaps with subjective interpretation of the guidelines? It’s one of those ‘all or nothing’ realities, there’s no easy way to close ‘bad’ gyms and keep ‘good’ ones open.

 

[_caleb]

And perhaps we should for x number of weeks or until there’s a change in numbers. I’d like to see a few details (maybe they’re in the article) on gyms. How large are they and at what capacity are they limiting not only attendance, but spacing in the gym? Some, like an LA Fitness or Planet Fitness, are occupying old circuit cities and Toys r Usses. Others occupy one or two sublets in a strip mall and are claustrophobic on a good day. Also, what is mask compliance and enforcement for not only those working out but staff? The reason I ask those questions is that our YMCA has yet to be traced to an outbreak, but a couple smaller gyms have. Same with a few barber shops/nail salons and differences in compliance.

All good questions we should be asking. If the research shows that restaurants, cafes, hotels, and gyms are disproportionatly responsible for the spread of the virus, targeting them for closure would allow us to open other things up and focus support (paycheck protection, etc) for workers in those places.

 

[sullyinMT]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red. In this update: Pfizer's updated timeline...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​

​

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed:​

• $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)
• Though Warp Speed will pay for the vaccine and the CDC will guide distribution, Pfizer has not accepted any money in advance and they have set up their own distribution operations

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well).
• Late Oct or Nov.
• 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: ​

• Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.
• Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.
• Likely to get the governmental review before Thanksgiving which will show 90% effectiveness and completely safe (on the populations they tested)

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type: altered chimp adenovirus​

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3: in progress, recently started, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

Thank you for these rigorously detailed updates. Question regarding “populations they’ve tested,” and especially children to 12. Is their current trial designed to prove safety for that group, as well, or is this more of a “Phase 1 rider” or whatever it would be officially called? Said differently, will they need to further expand that arm of the trial before seeking full licensure?

 

[_caleb]

Well, the counter argument is that if done properly, most of those places can safely operate at a reduced capacity.


There’s a CrossFit gym in my area that I ride past often while on bike rides. It’s got 2 huge roll up doors that are always open, with fans blowing circulating air. People always seem well spaced and it’s not crowded at all. It’s obvious it can operate safely. It’s also obvious, like you say, that a strip mall gym with a couple machines crammed together is a bad idea all around.

But how do you structure a mandate to close one and not the other? Who selectively enforces it, perhaps with subjective interpretation of the guidelines? It’s one of those ‘all or nothing’ realities, there’s no easy way to close ‘bad’ gyms and keep ‘good’ ones open.

Maybe handle them like restaurants? The Health Departments try to keep up with them and enforce safety regulations, equipment, and procedures.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Thank you for these rigorously detailed updates. Question regarding “populations they’ve tested,” and especially children to 12. Is their current trial designed to prove safety for that group, as well, or is this more of a “Phase 1 rider” or whatever it would be officially called? Said differently, will they need to further expand that arm of the trial before seeking full licensure?

That I don't know or have seen anywhere made explicit.

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

Living just SE of StL, MO, I'm very frustrated by the fact that although we are supposed to be under further mitigation measures (no indoor dining, bars closed to indoor patrons, limited gathering sizes) there are a MULTITUDE of businesses that are continuing to operate as if no further restrictions have been enacted. From what I understand there are not sufficient laws/measures in place for law enforcement or licensing agencies to mete out any sort of consequence for those establishments not adhering to the rules.

Our county's positivity rate today was 18.7% (of 1,136 tests) and our reginal rate on the 7th was 12.7%. It makes me want to scream and cry all at once.

 

[Patcheslee]

This is getting deep. Hope the masks and distance keep the flu down.

I wonder if flu will actually be down, or if it will be the lack of testing/confirmed flu cases. Back in late September when had symptoms they only tested for Covid, they didn't bother with strep, flu tests. Covid came back negative for both husband and I of course. So it could have been flu, but unconfirmed so doesn't count. FYI flu shot wasn't being offered here till mid/late Oct.

Our county's positivity rate today was 18.7% (of 1,136 tests) and our reginal rate on the 7th was 12.7%. It makes me want to scream and cry all at once.

My county 7 day average in Indiana is at 10.6%, but if it's individuals tested instead of overall that rate jumps to 24%. We keep topping our previous record for confirmed cases, and 16 of the 26 confirmed deaths in the county have happened in the last month.

 

[Kevin_W]

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

I think we can update that to an October vaccine being impossible (for 2020, at least!).

Thanks for these updates. Hearing the BioNTech news this week has me optimistic that we'll get data from Moderna/Oxford soon.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I wonder if flu will actually be down, or if it will be the lack of testing/confirmed flu cases. Back in late September when had symptoms they only tested for Covid, they didn't bother with strep, flu tests. Covid came back negative for both husband and I of course. So it could have been flu, but unconfirmed so doesn't count. FYI flu shot wasn't being offered here till mid/late Oct.

My county 7 day average in Indiana is at 10.6%, but if it's individuals tested instead of overall that rate jumps to 24%. We keep topping our previous record for confirmed cases, and 16 of the 26 confirmed deaths in the county have happened in the last month.

The flu season really hasn't hit as of now, so if cases have been low-to-zero in your area, they may not routinely test yet. In my area, unless we have very strong clinical suspicion, we're holding back testing of the flu for now because our resources for testing are finite. If and when the hospitals start seeing more cases (they act sort of like the canary in a mineshaft), then we'll probably start testing more.

 

[Touchdown]

In my hospital our main test we are doing for Covid is actually a full respiratory PCR that tests for all respiratory viruses. I’ve not personally seen or heard of a single flu case, but that’s normal. I typically see my first case in early December.

Not to be a wet blanket but I have seen a handful of rhinovirus cases (a cold virus) which means other viruses are still circulating, I would not count on there not being a flu season this year; too many people are not following guidelines and getting Covid those people will also spread the flu too.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

I wonder if flu will actually be down, or if it will be the lack of testing/confirmed flu cases. Back in late September when had symptoms they only tested for Covid, they didn't bother with strep, flu tests. Covid came back negative for both husband and I of course. So it could have been flu, but unconfirmed so doesn't count. FYI flu shot wasn't being offered here till mid/late Oct.

It's interesting that different places are handling testing differently. I got tested at an urgent care drive-thru testing site in late-September and they tested for the flu as well. Both tests were negative. I held off on getting my flu shot until this past weekend just because I don't like to get it too early.

 

[mmascari]

But how do you structure a mandate to close one and not the other? Who selectively enforces it, perhaps with subjective interpretation of the guidelines? It’s one of those ‘all or nothing’ realities, there’s no easy way to close ‘bad’ gyms and keep ‘good’ ones open.

As someone else suggested, inspections.

My thought we be they should score them, say out of 100. At 100, you’re fine all the time, mitigation is in place that you never need to close. An outdoor track with crowd control. Then, based on community positivity the allowed rating could go up and down. We're below 5%, scores above 30 can open. We’re at 15%, scores above 75 can open. Require the rating to be posted by the front door. Do it for all businesses. Add someone monitoring occupancy, score goes up. Hope for the best with no occupancy count, score goes down.

This way someone deciding between two stores/restaurants/gyms can look at the score. Do I like choice A enough more than B that a lower score is ok? Or do I prefer a higher score? As a business will I get the score up as an advantage, to attract people and be open more days or do I let it drop to save costs?

That CrossFit gym with an entire open wall, limited capacity and fans, high score. Barber that uses masks and only allows 1 customer by appointment, high score. Packed stands at an indoor basketball game, low score.

 

[SamusAranX]

Well, the anti maskers are going to have to contort and twist themselves to find a way around this. Seriously want to smack them sometimes.

CDC says masks protect wearers from Covid-19

Wearing a mask can help protect you, not just those around you, from coronavirus transmission, the CDC said in new guidance Tuesday.

www.cnn.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The status of the “hoax” virus is appalling giving that most of the country is still under warm weather conditions...

We’ve all been made the fool. Whether we had the right mindset or not. United we’re falling

As to “walt Disney world looks pretty good to me!!”...that’s a good plan to get it shutdown - as people drag their defiant germs across the Midwest towards the Peninsula (I advocated that we get a big saw and cut it off after more embarrassment last week...doubling down on that...so could be “upside”).

I know Tech wasn’t advocating that approach...but before we get that “Disney is the safest place on Earth!” Self serving rhetoric going...snuff it out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, the anti maskers are going to have to contort and twist themselves to find a way around this. Seriously want to smack them sometimes.

CDC says masks protect wearers from Covid-19

Wearing a mask can help protect you, not just those around you, from coronavirus transmission, the CDC said in new guidance Tuesday.

www.cnn.com

The CO2! The CO2!!!!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gyms should be closed. It’s time. I’d love to go to mine...I’ve still paid without complaint...but it just doesn’t make sense. Shared equipment in a place designed to make you heavy breath?

Come on

 

[GoofGoof]

Massive dataset reveals 4 superspreader sites to avoid in winter 2021

Researchers examining mobility offer robust evidence that social distancing works — and pinpoint locations to avoid during the pandemic.

www.inverse.com

This is no real surprise, but a recent study published today in Nature is proving to be very timely to the discussion on indoor dining:

Interesting list. Restaurants and cafes are pretty obvious. Anyone paying attention knows that indoor dining is an issue, really anything indoor without a mask for an extended period of time. Gyms can be hit or miss. I’ve heard stories of gyms setup pretty well and others of “train-wreck” kind of setups. The problem is if gyms are allowed to be open a gym owner is going to be open, even if they can’t set things up safely. I don’t know how to solve that issue. Maybe have more surprise inspections and/or require an inspection to re-open. It’s really up to people to actually follow through.

The one that’s a head scratcher to me is hotels. I’m not sure how a hotel is an issue by itself. I have only stayed a few nights in a hotel since this started but it was no less safe than a grocery store or other retail spot. Masks were required in all indoor common spaces, they had hand sanitizer all over the place, the front desk had plexiglass and even a clean and dirty pen bin where they cleaned pens after each guest used them. The elevators had signs limiting them to 1 party at a time. There was really not a lot I could see being an issue. Now if the hotel bar/restaurant or the hotel fitness center are open that could be where problems come in. In general I would say if people staying in a hotel are generally eating out then that may be the issue as opposed to the hotel itself.

 

[sullyinMT]

As someone else suggested, inspections.

My thought we be they should score them, say out of 100. At 100, you’re fine all the time, mitigation is in place that you never need to close. An outdoor track with crowd control. Then, based on community positivity the allowed rating could go up and down. We're below 5%, scores above 30 can open. We’re at 15%, scores above 75 can open. Require the rating to be posted by the front door. Do it for all businesses. Add someone monitoring occupancy, score goes up. Hope for the best with no occupancy count, score goes down.

This way someone deciding between two stores/restaurants/gyms can look at the score. Do I like choice A enough more than B that a lower score is ok? Or do I prefer a higher score? As a business will I get the score up as an advantage, to attract people and be open more days or do I let it drop to save costs?

That CrossFit gym with an entire open wall, limited capacity and fans, high score. Barber that uses masks and only allows 1 customer by appointment, high score. Packed stands at an indoor basketball game, low score.

Some of us kind of do this in our own heads, even on a day by day basis. We've given the kids a vote on Saturday lunch (usually least crowded around here that goes with our schedule), and vetoed them upon pulling in to a parking lot.
The scoring system is a micromanaging (in a good way) system to allow as much as possible to operate at any given time. The only downside I could possibly see is not having enough hires in the health department to do routine checks in a meaningful way. But I really like the idea of incentives (highest achievable score) to modify business behavior.
I'd also like to see some businesses, upon inspection, be shuttered for a few weeks for "retraining."

 

[Piebald]

Gyms should be closed. It’s time. I’d love to go to mine...I’ve still paid without complaint...but it just doesn’t make sense. Shared equipment in a place designed to make you heavy breath?

Come on

My membership allows me to go virtually every gym in town barring the more expensive boutique gyms. I've been to basically every chain gym in the area and some standalone gyms. They all enforce the same rules and practices for the most part and some take your temps but ultimately it comes down to the clientele I've noticed. The more expensive the gym the more compliant people seem to be. It's an anecdotal observation but I'm not sure many people go to multiple gym locations of multiple chains of gyms.