As opposed to the rest of us, who get no vaccine and just wait to see if we get Covid
Are you serious about that? Never mind, I misunderstood. I thought you were talking about when a vaccine is available.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Are you serious about that? Never mind, I misunderstood. I thought you were talking about when a vaccine is available.
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
A lot of employees in the airline industry commute to work via air. It was making it really tough for standbys to get on flights.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Oh...it’s you...
Don’t worry, he had it solved before Memorial Day...member??
Florida reports more than 13,000 new COVID-19 cases for second day in a row
For the second day in a row, Florida has reported more than 13,000 new coronavirus cases.
www.google.com
Florida leaders consider eventually scaling back on daily coronavirus reporting
Public health experts caution against sending mixed messages and that transparency is key.
An adult human should have the ability to Know when they’re about to be had
But it's some of our greatest work!
I really wish they would update all the dates and numbers instead of putting them all in the current bucket. For all of the data, republish the all the charts and metrics for the last two months with the data in the correct slot.
They could publish both "the current 7 day average based on when we got the number" and "the updated 7 day averages for the last 2 months based on when the tests/deaths actually occurred".
That would tell us more about last month than we know now. Was last month better or worse than we thought? Were it's numbers mostly from the month before or are we just now catching up to what was really happening back then?
For instance, picking on this example, those 3,800 mean sometime more than two weeks ago was worse than we thought. And, we don't know if we're still that bad or not and will not know for a few weeks until now catches up. Without republishing them back in time we can neither ignore the 3,800 or understand what it means today. I'm assuming there's no way to eliminate all the lag in all reporting, might as well accept it and adjust the metrics to deal with it. Even if this means that reading a report today about yesterday means that report will change 60 times over the next two months about what was really happening yesterday as it all catches up, no hanging on to yesterday's number as an absolute.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Agreed. Some people may choose to discount the 3,800 cases today but how do we know how many of today’s cases were missed? What if that number was 5,000
. And to the point of not getting it right up front, weren’t decisions on things like reducing capacity limits and eliminating other restrictions based at least partially on those artificially low numbers?oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
Yes. And that's where the "dont test so much" noise came from.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
As far as Disney goes...the 7 day average and the % positive is all that matters. So the dumps don’t affect that too much
Florida is at 2,986 on the roll...they have to be at 2,147...
They were at 2,350 two weeks ago
Rosso11
Well-Known Member
I just read that paragraph about the 3,800 cases and I think they are talking about the September 1st data dump. Not today’s numbers but I could be reading it wrong.
“The number of new cases hasn't been this high since Florida reported 7,569 new positive cases on Sept. 1. However, the state said more than 3,800 of those cases were results older than two weeks, due to a delay in reporting from Quest Diagnostic Labs.”
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Good catch. You are correct. That’s also probably why there was no footnote added or press release issued. I assume we just blend today and yesterday and look at the 2 day average or 3,822 positives and 70,376 tests per day. Still very high percent positive.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
74,000 cases in the US today.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
FL Daily average last 7 days 3,261 positive. 22,824 positive on 469,500 tests
FL Daily average previous 7 days 2,667 Positive. 18,669 positive on 441,211 tests
Positives up 22.2% week over week. Testing only up 6.4% so this isn’t just due to increased testing. This may be just a temporary blip or it could be that we are seeing the impact of restrictions being removed. It took weeks after bars were opened the first time around to see a spike. Either way not great for WDW and FL tourism in general. My kid’s school reiterated recently that any kid or employee traveling to a place on the travel list needs to quarantine 14 days before returning to a physical school building. It handcuffs a lot of would be travelers and FL needs to be under 2,100 a day to get off the list.
FL Daily average previous 7 days 2,667 Positive. 18,669 positive on 441,211 tests
Positives up 22.2% week over week. Testing only up 6.4% so this isn’t just due to increased testing. This may be just a temporary blip or it could be that we are seeing the impact of restrictions being removed. It took weeks after bars were opened the first time around to see a spike. Either way not great for WDW and FL tourism in general. My kid’s school reiterated recently that any kid or employee traveling to a place on the travel list needs to quarantine 14 days before returning to a physical school building. It handcuffs a lot of would be travelers and FL needs to be under 2,100 a day to get off the list.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Oh...it’s you...
Don’t worry, he had it solved before Memorial Day...member??
Florida reports more than 13,000 new COVID-19 cases for second day in a row
For the second day in a row, Florida has reported more than 13,000 new coronavirus cases.
Florida leaders consider eventually scaling back on daily coronavirus reporting
Public health experts caution against sending mixed messages and that transparency is key.www.google.com
An adult human should have the ability to Know when they’re about to be had
Why do you always reply to me about it being "solved" before memorial day? There is nothing to "solve." As stated by the highly respected Dr. Anthony Fauci from day 1, "mitigation" was to "flatten the curve" and spread the outbreak over time, not to change the grand total of infections.
The more severe the mitigation measures, the more it hurts the economy. What was "solved" by memorial day is the disproportionate effect on the elderly. Once that was known, all focus should have been (and kind of is now in Florida) put on minimizing the number of elderly infected while letting everyone else who isn't high risk to go on with life and supporting a strong economy.
Before someone replies with how you can't get people to participate in the economy without the virus under control, it isn't and yet WDW keeps getting more and more crowded. The number of people flying has drastically increased between May (my first flight after the pandemic started) to now. Many restaurants around me (in heavily Democrat Broward County) are filled to reduced capacity and have waits on the weekend. This was not the case a couple of months ago and the virus is certainly not "under control."
I agree but they seem to only note when tests were sent to the labs when they get these delayed data dumps. It doesn't seem that swab date is available in the database under the normal process. On these data dumps I'm not sure if the "two weeks ago" was the date the sample was sent to the lab or the day the lab ran the test.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Air travel is up from almost zero, but still down 60-70% from same day last year so many people are still not traveling. Business travel makes up some of that but even pre-Covid business was only 20% of the total. Tourists aren’t flying at anywhere near the level needed. As far as WDW, they still have about half the cash hotel rooms closed so that’s a good indication tourists aren’t coming back in anywhere near enough numbers, especially out of state tourists who may need to fly. For local attractions and businesses things may be better but tourism is still in real trouble.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
There’s a large pushback among the Praetorian that this isn’t an issue.
It’s the BIGGEST issue wdw has. It’s the “gateway” to their highest spending domestic clientele...and international cannot resume until that hurdle is cleared.
Disney of course is all over this...all their actions are based on careful study of the issues. This one is at the top of the list. As it stands right now.
Yet...we will continue to go around and around. Florida has to help itself...it’s never gonna win with the “who shouts louder” method. This isn’t the 8th grade.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I think the current experience as WDW has more than a little to do with keeping some people away. Also, they are hitting the reduced capacity on the weekends pretty frequently now.Air travel is up from almost zero, but still down 60-70% from same day last year so many people are still not traveling. Business travel makes up some of that but even pre-Covid business was only 20% of the total. Tourists aren’t flying at anywhere near the level needed. As far as WDW, they still have about half the cash hotel rooms closed so that’s a good indication tourists aren’t coming back in anywhere near enough numbers, especially out of state tourists who may need to fly. For local attractions and businesses things may be better but tourism is still in real trouble.
Some of air travel being down is due to the economic circumstances. International travel (to/from the US) being turned off in a lot of cases also effects the domestic passenger numbers to an extent since people aren't flying to/from hubs to go to other countries.
My point was that back in April and May, people were scared to death by the way the media reported on the virus and made it seem like testing positive for COVID was like getting a stage 4 pancreatic cancer diagnosis. As people have come to terms with what it really is, a significant percentage of people are returning to normal, pre-COVID activities.
These significant increases are occurring while the virus is still "out of control." If WDW took away all of the negative protocols (no entertainment or character interactions and reduced ride capacity) and the states took away their scientifically unjustified (and possibly unconstitutional) quarantines, I'd bet that current attendance and resort bookings would be 80% or more of what they were last October. The 20% down would be due to elderly being careful/staying away, the part of the population that still thinks COVID is the bubonic plague and the impact of the economic downturn.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Go back and read those posts from April...start with your own.
I’m gonna say this R E A L. S L O W...
Nothing will get close to back to normal until semi-comfortable US travel resumes. It hasn’t and it won’t until everyone - starting with florida - gets serious.
...you don’t have to believe me...just let it play
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don’t know what you consider a significant percentage and maybe that’s the disconnect. There are people traveling, there are people flying, there are people going to WDW, but nothing close to where they need to be to turn a meaningful profit. I think where the disconnect comes from is you are looking at things anecdotally. You see people around doing stuff and based on that you assume things are back to normal. That’s far from true in most places. If it wasn’t we wouldn’t have an issue with unemployment, we wouldn’t have an issue with bankrupt businesses, we wouldn’t have air travel down 70% year over year.
It’s possible that in some areas there’s more activity than others and I do think more people are out and about most places locally at restaurants or shopping or other local activities vs what was happening in the Spring. That doesn’t necessarily translate to WDW and other tourism areas. It’s one thing to go out to eat one night and another to get on a plane and fly somewhere to stay for an extended period of time. WDW has seen larger crowds recently than July when they first opened but that has a lot do with less AP restrictions. Locals make up a large portion of the increase. That’s why the parks are much more crowded on weekends and resorts are still half closed. If demand picked up from out of state tourists they would open the resorts and likely slap those restrictions right back on AP holders.
You’re completely ignoring business travel. Both from the standpoint of business placing restrictions on how and where their employees can travel, and from the standpoint of business travel representing a significant driver of traffic to Orlando and WDW as a ancillary destination.
Forget the states and the constitution for a second, and even Disney’s protocols... how do you convince ALL of the fortune 100 multinational players to forget Covid exists and ‘open back up’ again? Because right now, absolutely none of them are playing along with Florida’s ‘open for business’ line.
A source on this, please? This topic has been discussed at length over the last 10s of pages, but never with such an outrageous number attached even from the most convinced skeptics.
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