JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Open the bars!! Oh, wait..........
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
Open the bars in the stadiums! Highest number in 9 days, definitely not helping the 7 day average in the least.
Sadly the trend line will likely continue to rise.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Bus has no reverse, no way to back it up.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
MA - and more specifically, the town I live in - was doing great, but now we're in the red and if we're there for three weeks, school goes back to full remote.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
Yeah my county and state is a total dumpster fire for reasons that are way OT, but our county health commissioner is giving us until the end of the month to make a decision. Not that the writing isn't on the wall, ceiling, and floor.MA - and more specifically, the town I live in - was doing great, but now we're in the red and if we're there for three weeks, school goes back to full remote.
My overall point is basically that FL isn't alone in this. Recent Phase 3 barn doors blowing off announcement won't help them in the least, but they're far from alone.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
What county are you in? I know you are in MT.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
Yellowstone (Billings), South Central.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
PA has same restriction as NY but it’s not based on where you fly from. People can ignore or just follow the requirement but if your job requires it you don’t have much of a choice but to comply. Getting fired during a pandemic and worldwide recession because you had to go to WDW doesn‘t seem like a smart move. It’s not about sneaking around it anyway. A lot of people want to actually follow the rules and wait until it’s safe. Cutting testing isn’t the answer...but we aren’t going to agree on that so no point talking about it.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Happened this summer with Delaware. They were on both NJ and PA lists and many people in both states have beach houses in Delaware or visit their shore towns in the summer. Local businesses and mayors were not happy the states put them on the list.
Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
NJ just announced over 1,300 new cases today. It might not take too long before we find out the answer to your question. I guess it's virtually a moot point for now since so many other states are on the list that travelling just about anywhere from NJ requires a 2-week quarantine, so I'm not sure how many people have travel plans that would need to be adjusted, anyway.
I wonder how FL would handle it if NJ finds itself back over the threshold, though. They seem to be in "do what you want" mode, so would DeSantis put us back on the mandatory quarantine list - and, in turn, would Disney re-enact it's "you can't quarantine on Disney property" rule? Or will DeSantis continue along his current path and let NJ visitors in without restriction to try to boost tourism revenue?
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
In response to the latter part of your response, I tend to think DeSantis won’t be reenacting quarantine rules, as evidenced by his allowing everyone else in the nation in right now. Travel restrictions and Phase 3 don’t belong in the same sentence, so the state would need to roll back in order to have that make sense, and I don’t see that happening right now. As for Disney specifically, they’re actively recruiting driving distance folks, and it’s not like some or most of those states are golden right now.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
Indiana may be going on the lists with the direction it's going. We're at our highest positive/100k since MayDamn, moving the wrong way towards getting under the 2,100 weekly average and off the quarantine lists.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I live right next door in Ohio. It is odd to me that (according to the John Hopkins data) Ohio's positivity rate is ~3% and Indiana's is up around 13%. Ohio is doing about twice the testing per capita, but that's still a factor of 2 difference.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
If their weekly average stayed above 900 cases a day it would trigger the travel quarantine. I think the NJ governor already talked about pulling back on things. They opened indoor dining about a month ago. There was also a potential super spreader event at a country club recently
GoofGoof
Premium Member
You have been on NJ’s list since July.
Regarding the new long lines
You've probably all seen my treatise on 'tipping points.' A tipping point for rides happens when the rate of people showing up exceeds a ride's capacity to through-put them.
For example: Let's say there's a ride that can handle 1,000 people per hour (PPH). You can have 10 PPH show up or 990 PPH show up, and there will be no line. That's because the ride can handle that rate of guests showing up and dispatch them all right away.
However, let's say that 1,100 PPH show up. Well then, at the end of the first hour, there will be 100 people in line because the ride could only have handled 1,000 of them. In the next hour, you have those 100 leftovers plus another 1,100 more people. At the end of the second hour, there will be 200 people in line. And so on. After 10 hours of the park being open, there will be 1,000 people still waiting to ride.
So, up to 1,000 PPH showing up, there's no line. Once more than 1,000 PPH show up, the line just keeps growing.... it passed its tipping point.
My point here, reading the account of a huge FoP line, is that the tipping point has been passed. Up until recently, there wasn't much of a line (compared to historical averages). But now that AK had its capacity increased, and the ride now has decreased capacity, the tipping point has been reached. And with no FP+ to schedule your time to ride, you have hours-long lines.
So, at this point, if WDW has found its park capacity which has passed the tipping point of a distanced-reduced ride where anywhere from 30-60% of its capacity has been cut by COVID protocols, then any further increase in park capacity is going to lead to huge lines.
You've probably all seen my treatise on 'tipping points.' A tipping point for rides happens when the rate of people showing up exceeds a ride's capacity to through-put them.
For example: Let's say there's a ride that can handle 1,000 people per hour (PPH). You can have 10 PPH show up or 990 PPH show up, and there will be no line. That's because the ride can handle that rate of guests showing up and dispatch them all right away.
However, let's say that 1,100 PPH show up. Well then, at the end of the first hour, there will be 100 people in line because the ride could only have handled 1,000 of them. In the next hour, you have those 100 leftovers plus another 1,100 more people. At the end of the second hour, there will be 200 people in line. And so on. After 10 hours of the park being open, there will be 1,000 people still waiting to ride.
So, up to 1,000 PPH showing up, there's no line. Once more than 1,000 PPH show up, the line just keeps growing.... it passed its tipping point.
My point here, reading the account of a huge FoP line, is that the tipping point has been passed. Up until recently, there wasn't much of a line (compared to historical averages). But now that AK had its capacity increased, and the ride now has decreased capacity, the tipping point has been reached. And with no FP+ to schedule your time to ride, you have hours-long lines.
So, at this point, if WDW has found its park capacity which has passed the tipping point of a distanced-reduced ride where anywhere from 30-60% of its capacity has been cut by COVID protocols, then any further increase in park capacity is going to lead to huge lines.
Wait, are we in the gondola thread?
UNCgolf
Well-Known Member
It will probably be worse than it would be under normal operations, too. Generally, some (maybe most) people will skip a really long line to do other things, which helps keep the line from growing ever longer (and is also one of the reasons Disney typically posts a standby wait time that's longer than the actual wait). Right now, though, there are less other things than ever. There's no shows, very little live entertainment, etc. that can draw people away from the rides -- you can't even park hop to a different park. If you have nothing else to do anyways, may as well get in that long line.
As an example of what I mean, once the line reaches 2 or 3 hours, you probably won't be adding 1100 PPH anymore. It might drop down to 500, and then the line shortens as the ride is able to "catch up" a bit, and thus why wait times fluctuate throughout the day rather than getting longer and longer as the day goes on (along with the fact that there isn't an endless daily stream of new people wanting to ride in general). That's less likely to happen under current circumstances, though, so as MisterPenguin said, there's a heightened chance of the parks getting overwhelmed with gigantic lines at most attractions.
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