when do you expect us to reach herd immunity and in the interim while we wait to reach the necessary numbers, how do we address the global economic implications of further prolonged delay towards returning back To normal in how society functions?
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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when do you expect us to reach herd immunity and in the interim while we wait to reach the necessary numbers, how do we address the global economic implications of further prolonged delay towards returning back To normal in how society functions?
danlb_2000
Premium Member
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Right now a lot of people are doing everything they can to slow the spread which is actually counter productive to herd immunity.
Archie123
Well-Known Member
Chip Chipperson
Well-Known Member
Oh there are people who think the shot itself makes you sick because they don't/won't understand that it's not a live virus. I've known more than a few who refuse to get the shot for that reason and insist they got the flu a day or 2 after getting the shot the last time they did bother to get it. It's bonkers.
Not to worry. The college students are doing their part.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
Change the subject a little I was wondering how the off site hotel/motels have been fairing. Have any closed temporarily or permanently. A lot of restaurants in my area are gone for good some of the big chain ones. As far as the flue shot never got sick from it a sore arm simply can't get sick from a dead virus
I don’t know if anyone has any hard numbers since it’s such a moving target, but there’s a significant number of major hotels in Orlando that have announced closures though at least December. I suspect some might try to wake back up for the holidays if things are looking promising, but there is a lot of ‘wait and see’.
Tha Realest
Well-Known Member
Why the eye-rolling at herd immunity? For the immunocompromised this is their only hope. Herd immunity is encompasses the (eventual) use of a vaccine and they are not mutually-exclusive. Also, some epidemiologists have noted the transmission and spread of coronavirus substantially slows once it hits 20% or so of the population. Lastly, there has never been a successful vaccine developed for a coronavirus, so considering other mitigation measures beyond waiting for a vaccine is necessary from a public policy standpoint. EDIT: And, I’ve been skeptical a sufficient number of people will take an eventual vaccine once offered/developed. In a given year less than 50% of the population takes the flu shot.
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GimpYancIent
Well-Known Member
Two good points. Large chain eateries have shut locations and the numbers are not small. A dead virus is not going to make a person sick but never has the Flu shot been 100% effective at preventing a person from getting the Flu, the stats are all over the place depending on the strain, a persons health etc, etc. That said, NO a dead virus can't get you sick.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Also, a lot of the "flu" that people get each flu season isn't actually the influenza virus, but another, less severe respiratory virus.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
1) We have never achieved anything other than very localized herd immunity for any infectious disease through natural exposure, and the morbidity and mortality of doing so is usually too excessive to make that a viable public health option.
2) There is a vaccine for the SARS virus of 2002, a coronavirus, although because of a combination of international cooperation and luck, there is little use for it outside of Asia. The reason no other coronaviruses have a vaccine is simply because few of these viruses are anywhere near as severe, as contagious, or as wide-spread as COVID-19. Its not worth the cost for most of them.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Natural herd immunity is very slow, extremely deadly, and is absolutely devastating on all accounts. It requires a complete rejection of all mitigation (social distancing, masks, etc.) in order to reach the 50%-60% that is needed to be infected. And, as many have repeatedly said, if that number IS reached (no matter how long it takes), the death toll would be catastrophic. We're talking levels like the movie Contagion. That's IF the death rate comes down to just 1%.
The premise of pursuing natural herd immunity comes from the assumption that a decent chunk of society has been infected and has antibodies without every having known. It would be assumed that as much as 25% of any particular area has antibodies and is already immune without knowing it. Some studies have suggested that (non-conclusively of course) based on small samples. Others have suggested that only 1-3% fall into that category. You can never know until you test EVERYONE or such a large portion of people in repeated controlled studies that it becomes nearly impossible to refute. It would take too much money and too much time to complete. A vaccine would presumably be available well before that happens.
Some suggest that 10X as many people have been infected as has been reported. If 6 million in the USA have been confirmed, that would mean that 60 million have been infected. That's 17% IF true. There would still be a LONG and PAINFUL journey to even teasing herd immunity. You'd have to drop ALL mitigation and pretty much ignore things in order to scratch the surface.
I'd venture a guess to say that hospitals would not be able to ignore anything as they'd explode. In other words, natural herd immunity is, in no way, an option. It never was. Not for this.
The premise of pursuing natural herd immunity comes from the assumption that a decent chunk of society has been infected and has antibodies without every having known. It would be assumed that as much as 25% of any particular area has antibodies and is already immune without knowing it. Some studies have suggested that (non-conclusively of course) based on small samples. Others have suggested that only 1-3% fall into that category. You can never know until you test EVERYONE or such a large portion of people in repeated controlled studies that it becomes nearly impossible to refute. It would take too much money and too much time to complete. A vaccine would presumably be available well before that happens.
Some suggest that 10X as many people have been infected as has been reported. If 6 million in the USA have been confirmed, that would mean that 60 million have been infected. That's 17% IF true. There would still be a LONG and PAINFUL journey to even teasing herd immunity. You'd have to drop ALL mitigation and pretty much ignore things in order to scratch the surface.
I'd venture a guess to say that hospitals would not be able to ignore anything as they'd explode. In other words, natural herd immunity is, in no way, an option. It never was. Not for this.
When you compare living in a San Francisco 600 square foot 1 bed/1 bath apt with off street parking, laundromat down the street versus a very nice Austin home 4 bed 2 bath 2 car garage both in the 600K range it's a no brainer.But even with higher prices in Austin, the median home price is hovering below 500k, while in Cali, you're still looking at just below 600k. So who can blame moving and making a cool 100k give or take minus taxes? Hell, if they were really smart they move to Florida where the median prices even in cities is still around 300k. My friends left San Fran and made a tidy profit. Alot of people do that with Long Island to Florida as well. Not to mention the thousands they save every year on property taxes.
Then again I hate Florida and hope to leave some day
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Heck, my brother left San Francisco and moved to the Boston area and still made a tidy profit.But even with higher prices in Austin, the median home price is hovering below 500k, while in Cali, you're still looking at just below 600k. So who can blame moving and making a cool 100k give or take minus taxes? Hell, if they were really smart they move to Florida where the median prices even in cities is still around 300k. My friends left San Fran and made a tidy profit. Alot of people do that with Long Island to Florida as well. Not to mention the thousands they save every year on property taxes.
Then again I hate Florida and hope to leave some day
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
A lot of people on social media including these boards say that won’t travel or eat out. There’s a certain percentage of people that are afraid.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
We do too, but my husband is out installing floors in people's houses every day, my son went to summer school, we get take out pretty regularly...we're being cautious, but it's not like we're hiding from nuclear fallout.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
People aren’t eye rolling about herd immunity from a vaccine, that’s in reference to natural herd immunity. There was never a successful vaccine for anything until the first one was created. Has there ever been a serious effort to make a coronavirus vaccine that failed? Did several hundred companies worldwide all focus on a coronavirus vaccine in the past and all fail collectively? Did major governments around the world pump hundreds of billions of dollars into that research? It’s repeated continuously that there’s never been a coronavirus vaccine in the past as a good reason it won’t succeed but without context that’s not necessarily a good indicator of the current situation. At least in the case of the Oxford group their vaccine started out as a MERS vaccine which worked in phase 1 trials and more importantly proved safe over the long term but they couldn’t prove efficacy because MERS is so rare and the outbreaks so short lived that they never got to the point where they could get a good placebo group to “get infected naturally”.
I don’t know about the 20% thing but if that’s true and 50% of the population gets the vaccine then we are done even if the vaccine is only 50% effective. That’s a real good outcome. I think many more people will eventually get the vaccine than a flu shot but it will take time. Once this horrible election cycle ends and the fear of political influence over a vaccine dies down more people will get onboard. Recent polls show that the number of people willing to get the vaccine is dropping but I think that’s more due to politics than actual fear of the vaccine.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I won‘t travel into a hot spot and I don’t eat in indoor restaurants. If that makes me afraid, then yes I am afraid. I still get takeout from restaurants and I still do plenty of things outside of my home that are both enjoyable and rewarding experiences so I’m not sure how it qualifies as hiding in the basement but whatever floats your boat. Are the people who say they won’t get the vaccine also afraid?
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