Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[oceanbreeze77]

I wonder if this influenced the decision to postpone the Big 10 football season until the spring... or if this will change the war chant from OSU fans to reinstate the usual fall schedule. On the latter point, I'm guessing, the answer is "no".

You mean some fans dont actually care about the players??? /s

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Why aren’t the deaths tapering off yet? I know there’s a lag but how the heck long is a lag?

NY saw high death tolls for about a month

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

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This is something I've been pondering for a while. I'm incredibly unversed in epidemiology, but there seems to be a downward trend in COVID cases, is there not? Trends went down at the end of May, then we had what appears to be a second wave in the summer, and it seems to be decreasing again. I'm not discounting the risk of a third wave, and again I don't know much about how this works, but it would seem that we're getting better at containing the virus, would it not? Like, masks/social distancing should still be happening, but things are open now and cases are still declining.

I'm definitely open to learning more about this and I understand that I could be completely off base here, but I'd appreciate some insight into the subject.

 

[JoeCamel]

This is something I've been pondering for a while. I'm incredibly unversed in epidemiology, but there seems to be a downward trend in COVID cases, is there not? Trends went down at the end of May, then we had what appears to be a second wave in the summer, and it seems to be decreasing again. I'm not discounting the risk of a third wave, and again I don't know much about how this works, but it would seem that we're getting better at containing the virus, would it not? Like, masks/social distancing should still be happening, but things are open now and cases are still declining.

I'm definitely open to learning more about this and I understand that I could be completely off base here, but I'd appreciate some insight into the subject.

I think what happened was we stayed at home until Memorial Day then acted like it was over which caused cases to spike. Kinda like the point we are at now. Will Labor Day have the same result?
Still first wave with ripples.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Will Labor Day have the same result?

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

I think what happened was we stayed at home until Memorial Day then acted like it was over which caused cases to spike. Kinda like the point we are at now. Will Labor Day have the same result?
Still first wave with ripples.

That makes sense. Ugh, I hate the thought that we're only in the first wave. That's so discouraging. I think with combined Labor Day as well as back to school, cases will spike.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out -

 

[lazyboy97o]

Holy

That's quite a jump from other small groups that were seeing around 10%, especially in a group that should be "fine."

 

[jmp85]

Funny, they've only reported 11 positive tests among all student athletes since June (through August 28).

Penn State Student-Athlete Tests Positive For Coronavirus

The new figures bring Athletics’ cumulative positive cases to 11 this summer.

onwardstate.com

 

[GoofGoof]

This is something I've been pondering for a while. I'm incredibly unversed in epidemiology, but there seems to be a downward trend in COVID cases, is there not? Trends went down at the end of May, then we had what appears to be a second wave in the summer, and it seems to be decreasing again. I'm not discounting the risk of a third wave, and again I don't know much about how this works, but it would seem that we're getting better at containing the virus, would it not? Like, masks/social distancing should still be happening, but things are open now and cases are still declining.

I'm definitely open to learning more about this and I understand that I could be completely off base here, but I'd appreciate some insight into the subject.

There seems to be a 3 month arc for outbreaks or waves or whatever you want to call it. Cases surge, restrictions are put in place and then cases calm down. It happened in Wuhan, Italy, the rest or Europe and NYC and the Northeast in March. Then this summer around mid-June the sunbelt had their surge start and it’s winding down now. There’s some early signs of a new surge starting in the Midwest now but hopefully its not a full blown outbreak. There’s 2 leading theories on how/why this happens.

1. The virus begins to spread and hits a level of community spread that’s out of control. Restrictions are put in place like stay at home orders back in March or pull backs on bars and indoor dining and mask rules in the sun belt this summer. Then the cases drop down.
2. The virus hits an area and runs through it and no matter what people do it runs it’s course in about 3 months and then it’s safe to go back to life as normal. The summer outbreak in the sunbelt was just a delay in start. Supporters of this theory point to NYC and NJ where cases and percent positive are very low and assume (hope) that happens in places like AZ, TX and FL now.

I think the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. The supporters of theory 2 discount that NYC and NJ have full mask requirements and also no or very limited indoor dining and no bars. They also ignore that CA had a surge in March that died down and then when they re-opened bars and indoor dining had a second surge. I do think there’s a percent of the population who are very vulnerable due to underlying health conditions and also lifestyle. Those people get infected first and faster so in theory if a lot of them have gotten it then there are less people to get infected in a second wave.

 

[GoofGoof]

Funny, they've only reported 11 positive tests among all student athletes since June (through August 28).

Penn State Student-Athlete Tests Positive For Coronavirus

The new figures bring Athletics’ cumulative positive cases to 11 this summer.

onwardstate.com

I don’t think they said it was from new cases only. The majority of students they have had time to study were probably infected before the summer.

 

[GoofGoof]

Numbers are out -

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7 day average for percent positive is still hanging above 5%. It looks like it will still be a while before FL comes off the travel quarantine lists.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

7 day average for percent positive is still hanging above 5%. It looks like it will still be a while before FL comes off the travel quarantine lists.

I wonder if it'll even make it off this year with the upcoming double whammy of covid and flu season.

 

[carolina_yankee]

7 day average for percent positive is still hanging above 5%. It looks like it will still be a while before FL comes off the travel quarantine lists.

The Tri-State area uses 10% *and* less than 10/100,000 new cases. The positivity is good for lifting the quarantine, but they need to get the daily average of new cases to less than around 2100. For a minute there a few days ago I thought that was coming up.

I think Ohio uses 15% positivity and doesn't look at per capita. A friend told me Florida is off Ohio's quarantine list.

Dirk

 

[jmp85]

I don’t think they said it was from new cases only. The majority of students they have had time to study were probably infected before the summer.

The fact that this type of information was presented publicly without any type of documented proof (or context) is irresponsible. Gotta feed the people what they want though.

Edit: If you watch the doctor's comments, he also states that many cardiologists have essentially said the finding is incidental and may not warrant any further investigation or concern. The doctor himself doesn't seem concerned.

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

There seems to be a 3 month arc for outbreaks or waves or whatever you want to call it. Cases surge, restrictions are put in place and then cases calm down. It happened in Wuhan, Italy, the rest or Europe and NYC and the Northeast in March. Then this summer around mid-June the sunbelt had their surge start and it’s winding down now. There’s some early signs of a new surge starting in the Midwest now but hopefully its not a full blown outbreak. There’s 2 leading theories on how/why this happens.

1. The virus begins to spread and hits a level of community spread that’s out of control. Restrictions are put in place like stay at home orders back in March or pull backs on bars and indoor dining and mask rules in the sun belt this summer. Then the cases drop down.
2. The virus hits an area and runs through it and no matter what people do it runs it’s course in about 3 months and then it’s safe to go back to life as normal. The summer outbreak in the sunbelt was just a delay in start. Supporters of this theory point to NYC and NJ where cases and percent positive are very low and assume (hope) that happens in places like AZ, TX and FL now.

I think the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. The supporters of theory 2 discount that NYC and NJ have full mask requirements and also no or very limited indoor dining and no bars. They also ignore that CA had a surge in March that died down and then when they re-opened bars and indoor dining had a second surge. I do think there’s a percent of the population who are very vulnerable due to underlying health conditions and also lifestyle. Those people get infected first and faster so in theory if a lot of them have gotten it then there are less people to get infected in a second wave.

Thank you for replying! This is really interesting, unfortunately I wish it didn't have real-world effects.

Do you think we're heading to lower cases in FL? Personally I hope so, but doubt it, especially with back to school and the fact that a lot of the population is elderly and more susceptible. I also don't think we need to be focusing on a vaccine as much as effective treatment- if we can negate the havoc COVID wreaks on the body, some of the power it has over us is diminished. I read an article the other day about how certain steroids are helping greatly in fighting COVID, which is fantastic news. Of course a vaccine is incredibly important, but so is figuring out how to fight it. If we reduce how much threat this has over us, maybe things can start to go back to a semblance of normal.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Why aren’t the deaths tapering off yet? I know there’s a lag but how the heck long is a lag?

This is something I've been pondering for a while. I'm incredibly unversed in epidemiology, but there seems to be a downward trend in COVID cases, is there not? Trends went down at the end of May, then we had what appears to be a second wave in the summer, and it seems to be decreasing again. I'm not discounting the risk of a third wave, and again I don't know much about how this works, but it would seem that we're getting better at containing the virus, would it not? Like, masks/social distancing should still be happening, but things are open now and cases are still declining.

I'm definitely open to learning more about this and I understand that I could be completely off base here, but I'd appreciate some insight into the subject.

Death spikes follow case spikes by about 2 weeks behind because of the incubation period, but, they stay high longer than 2 weeks because once someone who catches the virus -- and is fated to die from it -- they may take anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks for death to finally occur.

Of note in the charts is the percent positive. If it is high (over 5%), then all it takes is for some relaxation of vigilance for community spread to take off again. People think that the virus is beat and so they go to parties (not necessarily the huge parties in the news, but with extended family and friends). With a higher positive rate, there's a good chance someone in that group is positive, and, bam, now ten more are positive.

But if positivity is really low (like around 1%), then even if people let their guard down, there's a good chance no one at the party is infected, and so, no further spread.

But, of course, even with less than 1% positivity, if there's *a lot* of relaxation of control (masks, distance, washing), then eventually, out of a hundred 'parties', one of those parties will become a super spreader, and we're back to a geometric growth in positive cases.

That's why as we "open" we should always rigorously continue to mask-up and distance and wash. Every day should be treated like it was the first day after lock down and you suspect everyone is positive.

 

[Lora Baines Bradley]

Death spikes follow case spikes by about 2 weeks behind because of the incubation period, but, they stay high longer than 2 weeks because once someone who catches the virus -- and is fated to die from it -- they may take anywhere from 2 to 6 weeks for death to finally occur.

Of note in the charts is the percent positive. If it is high (over 5%), then all it takes is for some relaxation of vigilance for community spread to take off again. People think that the virus is beat and so they go to parties (not necessarily the huge parties in the news, but with extended family and friends). With a higher positive rate, there's a good chance someone in that group is positive, and, bam, now ten more are positive.

But if positivity is really low (like around 1%), then even if people let their guard down, there's a good chance no one at the party is infected, and so, no further spread.

But, of course, even with less than 1% positivity, if there's *a lot* of relaxation of control (masks, distance, washing), then eventually, out of a hundred 'parties', one of those parties will become a super spreader, and we're back to a geometric growth in positive cases.

That's why as we "open" we should always rigorously continue to mask-up and distance and wash. Every day should be treated like it was the first day after lock down and you suspect everyone is positive.

Oh for sure - I've been masking and disinfecting often. I don't go to parties or anything like that. I live in a dorm and it seems most are taking the recommendations seriously, but of course there are some that will ruin it for others. I did go out to dinner with a roommate and one of her friends, but the only times we weren't wearing our masks was when we were actively eating or drinking. While we were waiting for food, we kept them on. I know not everyone is as cautious as I am, though.

If I'm reading the numbers correctly, it seems FL is ranging from a 4.9-7.48% of infections. That's still awfully high, considering 1% of FL residents is 214800 people. I wish there was some good news for once, lol. Can there please be a subreddit for good COVID news? I need it.

Btw, thank you for putting this together. It's very helpful and informative and I appreciate it very much!

 

[GoofGoof]

The fact that this type of information was presented publicly without any type of documented proof (or context) is irresponsible. Gotta feed the people what they want though.

Edit: If you watch the doctor's comments, he also states that many cardiologists have essentially said the finding is incidental and may not warrant any further investigation or concern. The doctor himself doesn't seem concerned.

I don’t know all of the details, but the Tweet posted here had a quote from the director of athletic medicine at PSU who said 30-35% of Big Ten athletes who tested positive for Covid appeared to have myocarditis. Are you saying that’s a false statement? I have no way of knowing one way or the other but I’d be interested to know if it’s not true. Is their some kind of documented proof out there that it’s false?

 

[GoofGoof]

The Tri-State area uses 10% *and* less than 10/100,000 new cases. The positivity is good for lifting the quarantine, but they need to get the daily average of new cases to less than around 2100. For a minute there a few days ago I thought that was coming up.

I think Ohio uses 15% positivity and doesn't look at per capita. A friend told me Florida is off Ohio's quarantine list.

Dirk

Yeah, they have been under the 10% for a few weeks now, but the case numbers have to go below 2,100 and stay there. It’s a weekly average so they need to maintain the level each week or go right back on the list. Maybe there‘s just a blip from colleges and schools going back and the trend will go down again in a few weeks.