Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
I think you almost have to toss out the last couple of days when the testing was low to look at trends. Compared to 7/31 which is the last day they reported 100K+ tests done the total positive is down almost 2K cases and the percent positive is down over 2.5%. Pretty good. If that trend continues it could be a legit turning of the corner and a start of the downward slope of the curve. We are right around what should have been the turning point of the 3 month arc that occurred in most of the original outbreaks (Wuhan, Italy, NYC).

The difference being that Florida did not take the more "extreme" measures that the 3 places you listed did. So if the curve follows the same pattern with halfhearted mitigation measures, it makes you wonder about the "herd immunity" theories and/or possible benefits
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The difference being that Florida did not take the more "extreme" measures that the 3 places you listed did. So if the curve follows the same pattern with halfhearted mitigation measures, it makes you wonder about the "herd immunity" theories and/or possible benefits
It’s still yet to be seen if the curve continues down like those other places or plateaus at a higher level. There’s still a lot less public interaction in FL right now then in normal times. It’s not like everything is back to normal.

Herd immunity is really only possible with a vaccine. There’s no way to infect enough people naturally to reach that level and we still don’t know how long that immunity lasts. You can’t force people to go out and get infected. People will restrict their activities on their own even if the government does nothing. We are seeing some of that in FL now. Take theme parks for example, they are open right now but attendance is poor. A lot of people just don’t want to do those types of activities if cases are up.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Especially if you can work from home. It doesn't ease my health concerns about travelling there, but others might be more inclined to visit now.
It certainly helps that school is going remote a lot of places now and a lot of people are working from home. I still think FL needs to get off the naughty list before a lot of people will be willing to go there. It’s too bad for the tourism economy that the timing didn’t work out for the summer, but if they can get cases down and keep them down through the fall there’s a hope for a bump from the holiday season. I still think it’s Spring before we see a meaningful increase in demand for tourism overall. Most people are just laying low for now.
 

SamusAranX

Well-Known Member
It’s still yet to be seen if the curve continues down like those other places or plateaus at a higher level. There’s still a lot less public interaction in FL right now then in normal times. It’s not like everything is back to normal.

Herd immunity is really only possible with a vaccine. There’s no way to infect enough people naturally to reach that level and we still don’t know how long that immunity lasts. You can’t force people to go out and get infected. People will restrict their activities on their own even if the government does nothing. We are seeing some of that in FL now. Take theme parks for example, they are open right now but attendance is poor. A lot of people just don’t want to do those types of activities if cases are up.

no doubt. We shouldn’t be “forcing” herd immunity by making people get infected.

but there is no denying that what Florida by state order and Floridians voluntarily have done does not, imho, compare to what New York, Italy, and Wuhan have done. If Florida’s curve follows the same model, that is why I think it will be worthwhile to investigate if herd immunity is more achievable then previously thought. No forcing it, just studying it once all the readily available data is available for hindsight
 

brianstl

Well-Known Member
It’s still yet to be seen if the curve continues down like those other places or plateaus at a higher level. There’s still a lot less public interaction in FL right now then in normal times. It’s not like everything is back to normal.

Herd immunity is really only possible with a vaccine. There’s no way to infect enough people naturally to reach that level and we still don’t know how long that immunity lasts. You can’t force people to go out and get infected. People will restrict their activities on their own even if the government does nothing. We are seeing some of that in FL now. Take theme parks for example, they are open right now but attendance is poor. A lot of people just don’t want to do those types of activities if cases are up.
The science right now isn't there, yet, to say that you are wrong about what it will take to achieve herd immunity. There are some interesting studies done and currently underway that suggest that there might be a rather large group of the population that may have some level of natural immunity to this virus without ever being exposed to this virus. It is an interesting thing to keep eye on.
 

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
I would be concerned about future restrictions, based on new hot spots. Today's "safe" areas could change in a few weeks, and today's hot spots might have lower numbers. Too much money, planning, etc - only to be disappointed. Or worse, stuck someplace away from home.

I think I'm going to wait a while longer before I plan on going further than absolutely necessary.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The science right now isn't there, yet, to say that you are wrong about what it will take to achieve herd immunity. There are some interesting studies done and currently underway that suggest that there might be a rather large group of the population that may have some level of natural immunity to this virus without ever being exposed to this virus. It is an interesting thing to keep eye on.
I agree. There’s more we don’t know then we know. There’s still a shot that the immunity you get from being infected lasts forever or at least a long time. It’s also possible the immunity lasts a year or even less which means herd immunity is not really possible without repeat infections or repeat vaccinations. I have seen the theories that either there’s a natural immunity or potentially a T cell immunity that some people can have without ever being infected. It’s an interesting theory and promising if it turns out to be true. We just don’t know one way or the other if it is. I was also hopeful the virus would be seasonal and go dormant in the summer. That was a promising theory which hasn’t really panned out. I don’t think we can base public policy decisions on the hope that a theory pans out.
 

brianstl

Well-Known Member
I agree. There’s more we don’t know then we know. There’s still a shot that the immunity you get from being infected lasts forever or at least a long time. It’s also possible the immunity lasts a year or even less which means herd immunity is not really possible without repeat infections or repeat vaccinations. I have seen the theories that either there’s a natural immunity or potentially a T cell immunity that some people can have without ever being infected. It’s an interesting theory and promising if it turns out to be true. We just don’t know one way or the other if it is. I was also hopeful the virus would be seasonal and go dormant in the summer. That was a promising theory which hasn’t really panned out. I don’t think we can base public policy decisions on the hope that a theory pans out.
I agree we can't make policy decisions on things that are very preliminary.

One hopeful thing with at least a couple of the vaccines that are farthest along right now is the T cell response that they seem to generate. That gives hope that even if a vaccine doesn't offer long term immunity that an infection after vaccination could be much less severe and much shorter than what would have happened before a vaccination.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I agree we can't make policy decisions on things that are very preliminary.

One hopeful thing with at least a couple of the vaccines that are farthest along right now is the T cell response that they seem to generate. That gives hope that even if a vaccine doesn't offer long term immunity that an infection after vaccination could be much less severe and much shorter than what would have happened before a vaccination.
This is true. In the beginning all of the talk was on how effective the vaccines would be at creating antibodies but it may turn out that for a lot of people the boost in T cells could be just as beneficial or potentially more beneficial long term. It’s really promising that the leading candidates seem to inspire production of both anti-bodies and T cells.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Follow up story to this picture. The students involved with posting these types of pictures on social media are now facing expulsion from the school. Well that’s one way to ensure you don’t have to be part of that **** show.

Of course they're going to punish the students...they don't want the world to know they're doing school re-opening about as wrong as it can be done.
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
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