Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

Hmm, I should have been less flippant with my language. Fair enough. There are still people to infect. But it’s not a significant amount, and very few people are dying. It’s essentially over in NY. A few hundred found cases a day doesn’t change that.

I just don't trust that New Yorkers, long term, are better behaved than the rest of America. They have displayed more tolerance than most to the restrictions, due to the severity of the initial outbreak, but that's it. If Cuomo, and De Blasio removed restrictions, I would predict that NYers would increase participation in the same things that are causing the spikes in other areas and we would see similar rises in cases, eventually translating to hospitalizations, eventually translating to deaths. Even if the timeline is more spread out, and the peaks do not reach the highs of March/April. The "area under the curve" is not going to be "insignificant" in terms of cases or deaths. They will just add up more slowly. So I guess, I better go edit, and add total deaths to my little post marker.

 

[xdan0920]

I just don't trust that New Yorkers, long term, are better behaved than the rest of America. They have displayed more tolerance than most to the restrictions, due to the severity of the initial outbreak, but that's it. If Cuomo, and De Blasio removed restrictions, I would predict that NYers would increase participation in the same things that are causing the spikes in other areas and we would see similar rises in cases, eventually translating to hospitalizations, eventually translating to deaths. Even if the timeline is more spread out, and the peaks do not reach the highs of March/April. The "area under the curve" is not going to be "insignificant" in terms of cases or deaths. They will just add up more slowly. So I guess, I better go edit, and add total deaths to my little post marker.

FWIW, New York State has indoor dining open. The only thing waiting really, is Gyms and movie theaters.

I also suspect we will never agree on what amount of deaths is deemed “significant”.

 

[Lilofan]

Disneyland faces 32 million attendance drop over 2 years, analysts warn

A new report by Wall Street analysts Cowen and Company paints a grim picture of attendance losses at Disney’s Parks, Experiences and Products division.

www.ocregister.com

This would be horrific for TWDC.

 

[lisa12000]

Hmm, I should have been less flippant with my language. Fair enough. There are still people to infect. But it’s not a significant amount, and very few people are dying. It’s essentially over in NY. A few hundred found cases a day doesn’t change that.

we have seen the same in London actually - we have opened up fairly sensibly however london had the mass protests, non compliance with masks on transport, bars were opened up with mass people I’m soho - and no spike whatsoever in London - it’s just not happening. What we are noticing is that those areas that didn’t get hit hardly at all are areas that are having a few issue now - but they’re still not exploding cases wise - we have ramped up testing andour positivity rate is still well below 1 (0.52 average) - and really compliance is just not that good- for example we have fans celebrating league wins in football all over the place etc tonight.

T cell immunity is one thing ive spoken about before on here and I genuinely believe this is true - it also explains the level of natural immunity children seem to have due for exposure to other corona viruses which have given them some immunity to corona. In fact due to this one scientist at the university of oxford believes that herd immunity can be achieved at as low as 20% due to many of us being naturally immune

 

[WDWTrojan]

we have seen the same in London actually - we have opened up fairly sensibly however london had the mass protests, non compliance with masks on transport, bars were opened up with mass people I’m soho - and no spike whatsoever in London - it’s just not happening. What we are noticing is that those areas that didn’t get hit hardly at all are areas that are having a few issue now - but they’re still not exploding cases wise - we have ramped up testing andour positivity rate is still well below 1 (0.52 average) - and really compliance is just not that good- for example we have fans celebrating league wins in football all over the place etc tonight.

T cell immunity is one thing ive spoken about before on here and I genuinely believe this is true - it also explains the level of natural immunity children seem to have due for exposure to other corona viruses which have given them some immunity to corona. In fact due to this one scientist at the university of oxford believes that herd immunity can be achieved at as low as 20% due to many of us being naturally immune

But London successfully drove the numbers low enough and had a slow enough reopening that these things have been managed well and life can resume to some semblance of normalcy. If London reopened the same way Florida did, it would still be having the same issues.

Also, as has been mentioned here ad infinitum, the protests and the like don't seem to spur too much transmission, regardless of where it is, as outdoor transmission is pretty low, particularly when wearing masks. And correct me if I'm wrong but most of the large crowds for pubs and such are also outdoors now.

 

[disneygeek90]

This would be horrific for TWDC.

Isn’t this pretty much expected? They don’t need an article to tell them what their outlook is.

“Disney’s four Florida parks could lose 65.6 million visitors in two years, based on the Cowen and TEA estimates.”

It’s going to be bad for a while. Both coasts will need to lean on locals (as if DL didn’t already).

 

[hopemax]

FYI, my Dad's COVID test came back negative. So no Disney Springs shopping for him.

 

[Lilofan]

Isn’t this pretty much expected? They don’t need an article to tell them what their outlook is.

It’s going to be bad for a while. Both coasts will need to lean on locals (as if DL didn’t already).

DL is not even open.

 

[disneygeek90]

DL is not even open.

Obviously I meant once they open.

 

[chrisvee]

True but shouldn't our hospitals be held more accountable when they are an essential service? There is other PPE that could be bought that would be reusable and would be more protective to staff (like full head respirators). They could have a decent supply in storage for this.

And what about local government? Shouldn't each county/state have their own stockpile for things like this? This isn't all on the Federal government. Each state and each essential business should have emergency plans to get them through...

Local and state governments don’t have the resources available to the federal government to create those types of stockpiles.

I’m not sure why this is debatable?? Our strategic stockpile has existed in its modern form since late 90s/early2000s and the national strategic pandemic plan dates from early 2000s as well. These are just facts I’m not getting into the politics of execution.

 

[chrisvee]

While you are in the time machine can you go back to the beginning of March and remind me to not wait another week for a haircut . Tell me to get more TP and Clorox wipes too

I stocked up on wipes, hand sanitizer, non-perishable foods, and TP/paper towels the last week in Feb right before my last trip to WDW.

I think that is the biggest thing - one you wear one for a while you realize it's not that big of a deal and you get used to it. No one is excited to wear one, but if that's what it takes, then that's what it takes.

I agree. For most people, the more you wear one the sooner you adjust and then it’s no big deal.

 

[GoofGoof]

Local and state governments don’t have the resources available to the federal government to create those types of stockpiles.

I’m not sure why this is debatable?? Our strategic stockpile has existed in its modern form since late 90s/early2000s and the national strategic pandemic plan dates from early 2000s as well. These are just facts I’m not getting into the politics of execution.

Yes, this isn’t about politics or blaming the current administration. The federal government should and in the future will hopefully have a better plan in place. I can’t say it would have been easy to see THIS coming but something less disruptive was a good possibility. We should have been better prepared. Hopefully its lessons learned, just like there were changes at FEMA after Katrina.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Yes, this isn’t about politics or blaming the current administration. The federal government should and in the future will hopefully have a better plan in place. I can’t say it would have been easy to see THIS coming but something less disruptive was a good possibility. We should have been better prepared. Hopefully its lessons learned, just like there were changes at FEMA after Katrina.

There are already architects and designers all over more warehouse and industrial space being added closer to major cities.. it will take 2-4 years before those actions become results.

 

[GoofGoof]

There are already architects and designers all over more warehouse and industrial space being added closer to major cities.. it will take 2-4 years before those actions become results.

Better late then never

 

[Yodascousin]

But London successfully drove the numbers low enough and had a slow enough reopening that these things have been managed well and life can resume to some semblance of normalcy. If London reopened the same way Florida did, it would still be having the same issues.

Also, as has been mentioned here ad infinitum, the protests and the like don't seem to spur too much transmission, regardless of where it is, as outdoor transmission is pretty low, particularly when wearing masks. And correct me if I'm wrong but most of the large crowds for pubs and such are also outdoors now.

That still doesn’t explain why In London there are hardly any cases here now but outbreaks are happening elsewhere in the country if there wasn’t some sort of natural immunity London would be having more cases than it’s currently seeing especially the way Londoners behave and the amount of multi generational households that live here. I do believe T cells play a much more important role than people think and are more important than antibodies I don’t know if the 20 percent number is correct but I doubt it’s much more 30 percent max and then the virus just burns out

 

[Dizneykid]

I'm intrigued by this T cell immunity talk. New York City is poised to always be the hardest hit in an outbreak scenario. There is a lot of unrest in the city right now and gathering directives are never going to be adhered to by everyone in a huge city. But they have declined in cases. There has to be some sort of immunity.

I have wondered why kids are less affected, particularly under 5. That's almost never the case with any virus.

 

[Dizneykid]

I keep reading that you would not be considered a contact if you were not around an infected person within 6 feet for 15 minutes or more. I've seen that criteria for other communicable illness too. We voluntarily gave information when asked for contact tracing at a restaurant yesterday and now I'm wondering why. I saw that we'd be asked to quarantine if there was a case at the restaurant. That does not align with any guidelines. We didn't come within 6 feet for even 30 seconds with anyone including our server. We were sitting outside with nobody near us. We were asked to where masks inside the building only. Since take out food establishments don't include customers in any contact tracing, why would outdoor diners be at any special risk? Dont get me wrong, I would qurantine but it technically doesn't meet the criteria for exposure.

 

[Yodascousin]

I'm intrigued by this T cell immunity talk. New York City is poised to always be the hardest hit in an outbreak scenario. There is a lot of unrest in the city right now and gathering directives are never going to be adhered to by everyone in a huge city. But they have declined in cases. There has to be some sort of immunity.

I have wondered why kids are less affected, particularly under 5. That's almost never the case with any virus.

In my opinion it’s because kids are constantly exposed to common coronaviruses like the common cold kids are always getting sick! This would provide them with the T cell immunity which often lasts around 17 years which I think is why younger people are less affected by this virus, the elderly however their T cell immunity has waned with age and that’s why it is hitting the elderly population the hardest

 

[John park hopper]

Buy a new car every thing works great as it ages things break. Humans are no different-- young immune system is running at 100% as we age our immune system declines and can't respond to infections be it viral or bacterial when we were young

 

[TJJohn12]

FYI, my Dad's COVID test came back negative. So no Disney Springs shopping for him.

Do you mean positive - in that he HAS COVID-19? Do you have close contact with him?