Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Yes and we need to closely watch that mortality rate. So far, NY has the highest count and that aligns with a likely conclusion that they will be the hardest hit. While the governors try to flex on each other, most people are hoping the death rate flattens everywhere.

You have to look at deaths from long term care facilities to see the whole story. When this first broke out the states hit first did a terrible job locking down long term care facilities. In PA where I live 2/3 of our deaths came from LT care. The states that were hit later had the knowledge and unfortunate experience of the ”first movers” and did a much better job locking down those types of centers. FL still had a lot of deaths in LT care facilities but not nearly at the level as NY/NJ/PA/MA and other states hit hard early.

 

[Kamikaze]

Our numbers our down, not sure you can ascribe it to mask usage though. More likely the Virus ran out of people to infect.

This is verifiably false because of the test rates. The positive test rate has been less than 1% in the NYC metro for a long time.
The antibody study that was completed in May only showed 5% infection rate for CT and 7% for NY. Coupled with those low test rates since then, the numbers say that the total infected percentage is probably around 15%, but 20% at the most - accounting those who never got tested for anything or showed any symptoms.

 

[Kamikaze]

What's going on in California? Weren't they super duper locked down? I'm all over the map about what we should do as a country response but I guess it's not really a shock that highly populated states will have a lot of different issues. NY, CA, TX and NY have so many people with different attitudes and priorities. All it takes is a percentage of people who live life like normal to ramp up numbers. Those people exist everywhere in every state and lockdowns won't stop them. We will see spikes anywhere there is a larger population.

CA eased up too early and they also did not mandate masks coming out of the lockdown.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

True but shouldn't our hospitals be held more accountable when they are an essential service? There is other PPE that could be bought that would be reusable and would be more protective to staff (like full head respirators). They could have a decent supply in storage for this.

And what about local government? Shouldn't each county/state have their own stockpile for things like this? This isn't all on the Federal government. Each state and each essential business should have emergency plans to get them through...

As a general rule, our society doesn't want to pay to have every potential emergency covered. Until it happens.

Then we usually over-react for a while.

Until someone looks to cut taxes, trim a budget, or reallocate funds....

 

[GoofGoof]

What's going on in California? Weren't they super duper locked down? I'm all over the map about what we should do as a country response but I guess it's not really a shock that highly populated states will have a lot of different issues. NY, CA, TX and NY have so many people with different attitudes and priorities. All it takes is a percentage of people who live life like normal to ramp up numbers. Those people exist everywhere in every state and lockdowns won't stop them. We will see spikes anywhere there is a larger population.

CA started reopening around the same time as FL. They had opened indoor dining, bars, shopping, gyms pretty much all the same stuff except for theme parks. DLR was scheduled to open the same time as WDW until the governor of CA pulled the plug. The governor talked a big game but it’s really hard to justify keeping stuff closed when your case numbers look really good. Like most of the south they were a victim of their own success.

 

[xdan0920]

This is verifably false because of the test rates. The positive test rate has been less than 1% in the NYC metro for a long time.
The antibody study that was completed in May only showed 5% infection rate for CT and 7% for NY. Coupled with those low test rates since then, the numbers say that the total infected percentage is probably around 15%, but 20% at the most - accounting those who never got tested for anything or showed any symptoms.

Your numbers are a touch low, but very close. And like I said. It ran out of people to infect. Those wonderful t-cells our bodies produce. Those perfect killing machines. They make a large percentage of humans naturally immune. You can see the evidence from Stockholm to NYC to Bergen County NJ. It’s not herd immunity per say, but it’s a burnout inflection point. There’s a few papers out there, and a few respected science-y folks out there who have been talking about this for quite a while.

 

[Kamikaze]

Your numbers are a touch low, but very close. And like I said. It ran out of people to infect. Those wonderful t-cells our bodies produce. Those perfect killing machines. They make a large percentage of humans naturally immune. You can see the evidence from Stockholm to NYC to Bergen County NJ. It’s not herd immunity per say, but it’s a burnout inflection point. There’s a few papers out there, and a few respected science-y folks out there who have been talking about this for quite a while.

I didn't make those numbers up.

CDC antibody study shows Connecticut had six times the number of COVID-19 infections originally reported

CDC says its study estimates that 5% of state residents have been infected with the coronavirus.

ctmirror.org

 

[GoofGoof]

Your numbers are a touch low, but very close. And like I said. It ran out of people to infect. Those wonderful t-cells our bodies produce. Those perfect killing machines. They make a large percentage of humans naturally immune. You can see the evidence from Stockholm to NYC to Bergen County NJ. It’s not herd immunity per say, but it’s a burnout inflection point. There’s a few papers out there, and a few respected science-y folks out there who have been talking about this for quite a while.

This is a pretty intriguing theory and I‘ve seen it talked about in several places outside of the political echo chambers so it could have some real merit. It certainly makes sense on its face. It’s not like people in NYC are living in bubbles so it’s bizarre that the rate stays so low. Certainly worth investigating further. This would be great news if it holds true, but until it’s proven true we still need to continue the current course.

 

[xdan0920]

It’s the same problem as FL, an inconsistent message across the board. When one county has masks but you can drive down the road and the next doesn‘t it sends a mixed message and leads to less compliance. Doing it at the state level makes it more likely to succeed (federal would be ideal, but we know that’s out). I know you don’t buy into masks, but distancing combined with capacity limits combined with masks are the best plan we have right now to slow the spread and the best way to allow people to continue to interact and keep the economy going.

CA also allowed bars and indoor dining to open too fast, also a mistake acknowledged by the governor. Once you have community spread so widespread it’s pretty hard to reverse course so we will see how the changes made in the past few weeks work out. I don’t see it having a huge impact for at least a few weeks more.

I think once we are at the point we are at in those hot states, the virus is just gonna have to do it’s thing. Thankfully treatments have improved dramatically, and testing, though far from perfect has improved exponentially. They should be doing some common sense things, wear masks(I don’t know they help, but it’s a low risk high reward type step) and avoid super spreader type events. Don’t pack 20’000 people into a basketball arena for example.

 

[xdan0920]

I didn't make those numbers up.

CDC antibody study shows Connecticut had six times the number of COVID-19 infections originally reported

CDC says its study estimates that 5% of state residents have been infected with the coronavirus.

ctmirror.org

I didn’t accuse you of making them up. I basically agreed with your numbers.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think once we are at the point we are at in those hot states, the virus is just gonna have to do it’s thing. Thankfully treatments have improved dramatically, and testing, though far from perfect has improved exponentially. They should be doing some common sense things, wear masks(I don’t know they help, but it’s a low risk high reward type step) and avoid super spreader type events. Don’t pack 20’000 people into a basketball arena for example.

Probably more controversial, but people should also be avoiding travel to those states while the spike is happening. If it follows the pattern from earlier in the year in other places it’s a 3 month arc so stay away for a few months and let things settle down. Then we avoid creating more hot spots.

 

[xdan0920]

Probably more controversial, but people should also be avoiding travel to those states while the spike is happening. If it follows the pattern from earlier in the year in other places it’s a 3 month arc so stay away for a few months and let things settle down. Then we avoid creating more hot spots.

That would be smart. That’s going to come down to personal responsibility though. These interstate bans, they aren’t legal, and cause more strife then a simple PSA, which would be more likely (IMO) to be followed. Another reason not to compare the European Union to our United States union. They can and did close their borders. We can’t.

 

[GoofGoof]

That would be smart. That’s going to come down to personal responsibility though. These interstate bans, they aren’t legal, and cause more strife then a simple PSA, which would be more likely (IMO) to be followed. Another reason not to compare the European Union to our United States union. They can and did close their borders. We can’t.

We don’t really have travel bans anymore. The borders are open, you just have to quarantine on return. I actually think every state should just have a policy that if you leave the state you must quarantine on return or offer the option to take a test. There would obviously need to be exceptions for work and essential travel. I know a few people who are doing that voluntarily anyway. They went away and are not doing much for the 2 weeks after getting home. It’s tougher for people who work outside the home.

 

[xdan0920]

We don’t really have travel bans anymore. The borders are open, you just have to quarantine on return. I actually think every state should just have a policy that if you leave the state you must quarantine on return or offer the option to take a test. There would obviously need to be exceptions for work and essential travel. I know a few people who are doing that voluntarily anyway. They went away and are not doing much for the 2 weeks after getting home. It’s tougher for people who work outside the home.

It’s also harder because there’s no true border. Here look at this Map.



I literally live on the border of NY. How can that be enforced? If I go to Blue Hill instead of RVCC for a round of golf, I have to quarantine for 2 weeks? If I grab food in Pearl River instead of Montvale, i

 

[hopemax]

Your numbers are a touch low, but very close. And like I said. It ran out of people to infect. Those wonderful t-cells our bodies produce. Those perfect killing machines. They make a large percentage of humans naturally immune. You can see the evidence from Stockholm to NYC to Bergen County NJ. It’s not herd immunity per say, but it’s a burnout inflection point. There’s a few papers out there, and a few respected science-y folks out there who have been talking about this for quite a while.

You have been particularly particular about people using certain language. "Ran out" of people to infect is a very specific statement. NY cases are not zero, or 50, or 100 per day. The 7-day average of new cases, according to the graphs on Worldometers, shallowed out about 750 per day, and has since risen to 925 per day. The counties with the most new cases continue to include Kings, Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk. The same counties that experienced the worst outbreaks. If, as you said, the "virus ran out of people to infect" this should not be happening. Congratulations for not being one of the states having 10,000 daily new cases. But approaching 1000 new cases daily is not nothing. It's more than France, Canada, UK, Germany, Italy and others.

Slow spread, is still spread. Slow growth is still growth. I know the odds of convincing people that believe in a low threshold for virus control is more related to behavior than immune response is nil. So I'm mostly just marking my place, so we can come back to this in 1 month, 3 months or 6 months so we can know exactly how much the case load increased in an environment where the virus "ran out of people to infect."

Today's stats: (source: NY dashboard )

Total positive: 408,886 cases
Total positive NYC: 222,444 cases
Total positive (excluding NYC): 186,442 cases

Total deaths as of 7/21: 25,068 (NY dashboard)
NYC Total deaths as of 7/22: 18,803 (NYC Dept of Health)
NYC Probable deaths as of 7/22: 4625 (NYC Dept. of Health - these include pending tests that get resolved into previous stat)

7-day average (source: Worldometers)
7/21: 925 cases
6/30: 743 cases

 

[JoeCamel]

It’s also harder because there’s no true border. Here look at this Map.



I literally live on the border of NY. How can that be enforced? If I go to Blue Hill instead of RVCC for a round of golf, I have to quarantine for 2 weeks? If I grab food in Pearl River instead of Montvale, iView attachment 485672

Enjoy your dinner? tomorrow evening?

 

[xdan0920]

Enjoy your dinner? tomorrow evening?

Lol. That’s the country club. After work tee time. Prob shoulda blurred that out, but I’m not exactly trying to stay anonymous.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

What's going on in California? Weren't they super duper locked down? I'm all over the map about what we should do as a country response but I guess it's not really a shock that highly populated states will have a lot of different issues. NY, CA, TX and NY have so many people with different attitudes and priorities. All it takes is a percentage of people who live life like normal to ramp up numbers. Those people exist everywhere in every state and lockdowns won't stop them. We will see spikes anywhere there is a larger population.

People just don't listen, unfortunately.

 

[xdan0920]

You have been particularly particular about people using certain language. "Ran out" of people to infect is a very specific statement. NY cases are not zero, or 50, or 100 per day. The 7-day average of new cases, according to the graphs on Worldometers, shallowed out about 750 per day, and has since risen to 925 per day. The counties with the most new cases continue to include Kings, Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk. The same counties that experienced the worst outbreaks. If, as you said, the "virus ran out of people to infect" this should not be happening. Congratulations for not being one of the states having 10,000 daily new cases. But approaching 1000 new cases daily is not nothing. It's more than France, Canada, UK, Germany, Italy and others.

Slow spread, is still spread. Slow growth is still growth. I know the odds of convincing people that believe in a low threshold for virus control is more related to behavior than immune response is nil. So I'm mostly just marking my place, so we can come back to this in 1 month, 3 months or 6 months so we can know exactly how much the case load increased in an environment where the virus "ran out of people to infect."

Today's stats: (source: NY dashboard )

Total positive: 408,886 cases
Total positive NYC: 222,444 cases
Total positive (excluding NYC): 186,442 cases

7-day average (source: Worldometers)
7/21: 925 cases
6/30: 743 cases

Hmm, I should have been less flippant with my language. Fair enough. There are still people to infect. But it’s not a significant amount, and very few people are dying. It’s essentially over in NY. A few hundred found cases a day doesn’t change that.

 

[GoofGoof]

It’s also harder because there’s no true border. Here look at this Map.



I literally live on the border of NY. How can that be enforced? If I go to Blue Hill instead of RVCC for a round of golf, I have to quarantine for 2 weeks? If I grab food in Pearl River instead of Montvale, I

Yeah there are a lot of state crossings like that where the line is blurred. I was thinking more like going somewhere overnight out of state. When you are potentially traveling by air and/or staying in a hotel and/or eating most or all meals out you are much more likely to come in contact with an infected person than someone staying home, especially when traveling to a state with more infections.