Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

With the significant increase in cases and hospitalizations, was there ever a question this would result in an increase in deaths eventually? I thought the question was always how many and how long? What would the lag be? And that we should be able to avoid major increases and numbers we have seem previously due to better treatments and greater protections for nursing homes.

There are certainly a couple people who, at the end of June, were very much that increased in cases among young people would not translate into deaths. They were posting daily, that the death trend line was going down. Which is why I asked if we could stop with the daily "deaths are decreasing, it's proof to not take this seriously" and just review the data on August 1st. Which turned into an oft repeated snark of "waiting two more weeks" for data they believed would never show up. Obviously, this morning's messages are another train wreck to diminish what rising deaths mean. So while most people seem aware of the lag both in for cases -> deaths, and be recorded, there is a group, who did and continue to question.

But since your message also mentioned care facilities. In case people didn't know, FL Health Dept. has a daily report with cases involving long-term care facilities (it does not include people requiring temporary care, ex post surgery/fall). Positives among staff have doubled in the last 2 weeks. On 6/28, the total number of positives was 2845. Today's reporting: 5766. For residents: 1756 on 6/28, today, 3072.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/ltcf_latest.pdf

 

[BrianLo]

Like @baymenxpac said, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Brian. I am going to have to disagree here though. A couple things to think about.

1. we are way better at diagnosing and testing now. So the days of 6-8 week lags should be over. In fact the lags should start moving closer and closer to real time.

2. We shouldn’t ever be using 1 metric to make decisions. It shouldn’t just be cases, or just be deaths, or just be hospitalizations. Everything needs to be put in the proper context. Then we can make smart, informed, cautious decisions. Instead of the panicky, fear based measures we previously enacted.

I agree!

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don’t much care what conclusions you draw.

Except you argue with people who do draw conclusions, so... verifiably false.

 

[xdan0920]

So if we can trust these numbers, it means that in April we reported 24,550 deaths when in actuality there were 57,963 from April and counting....

So the media was downplaying the deaths back then and no one was coming for them. Now that the deaths are being counted as they are being reported, they are over playing it?

If anything this tells me its worse than we are being led to believe....

Yes. If we can trust that the data mined deaths are truly Covid, then yeah, things were worse in April and May then we knew. Despite nationwide lockdowns.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

One of the largest school districts in the country

LAUSD superintendent says school year won't start with students at facilities amid COVID-19 pandemic

Los Angeles Unified School District Superintendent Austin Beutner announced Monday that the upcoming school year will not start with students taking in-person classes.

abc7.com

 

[xdan0920]

Except you argue with people who do draw conclusions, so... verifiably false.

No. I bring context to charts and numbers that have none. You love posting scary charts. You don’t love exploring what’s actually happening.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It’s not a coordinated effort.

It would have to be to be true.

A whole bunch of states that would like there very very very much not to be a rise in deaths are reporting a rise in deaths. They have every political reason to chose to present data that is more favorable... and they don't. They show a rise in deaths.

Are all those states running around looking for extra deaths to report? It would have to be a coordinated effort... a conspiracy... for all the ones with a rise to be rising together.

And all of them with a rise in deaths after several weeks of rising positives, just as expected.

 

[kong1802]

Yes. If we can trust that the data mined deaths are truly Covid, then yeah, things were worse in April and May then we knew. Despite nationwide lockdowns.

Which means we shut down too late. Response was botched in January like I suspected.......

Wonder what the real May and June numbers will be. May should be lower than April due to lockdowns. Same for June I would hypothesize.

Since it would be on a lag, July and August may see April like numbers, which I hope I'm wrong about.

 

[xdan0920]

It would have to be to be true.

A whole bunch of states that would like there very very very much not to be a rise in deaths are reporting a rise in deaths. They have every political reason to chose to present data that is more favorable... and they don't. They show a rise in deaths.

Are all those states running around looking for extra deaths to report? It would have to be a coordinated effort... a conspiracy... for all the ones with a rise to be rising together.

And all of them with a rise in deaths after several weeks of rising positives, just as expected.

Stop posting conspiracy theories and misinformation. It muddies the waters.

It’s not a coordinated effort. Health officials shouldn’t have any political reason to do anything. They should just be reporting what’s happening. They are now going back and reclassifying deaths as Covid. That’s not a conspiracy. It’s not a coordinated effort. It’s just what’s happening.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

last thing i'll say on this. he also said on march 8 on 60 minutes:

"the masks are important for someone who is infected to prevent them from infecting someone else. now, when you see people and look at the films in china and south korea, wherever, where everyone's wearing a mask...right now, in the united states, people should not walking be around with masks. there's no reason to be walking around with a mask. when you're in the middle of any outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. and often, there are unintended consequences, they keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face."

again, i have respect for dr. fauci and his work. i am absolutely not criticizing him. what you're saying is what i said a couple of posts ago: they changed the message as they received new facts. but they did change the message. nothing wrong with changing to more appropriate guidelines, just silly to say that officials never claimed they weren't effective. they did, then they changed. okay cool.

That’s how science works! As you move along, you change according to studies and data. I don’t care if they change the message 509 times, just keep giving me the most updated things you have figured out.

 

[xdan0920]

Which means we shut down too late. Response was botched in January like I suspected.......

Wonder what the real May and June numbers will be. May should be lower than April due to lockdowns. Same for June I would hypothesize.

Since it would be on a lag, July and August may see April like numbers, which I hope I'm wrong about.

We shouldn’t be on much of a lag anymore. There’s no reason at all to misidentify a death now.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Stop posting conspiracy theories and misinformation. It muddies the waters.

It’s not a coordinated effort. Health officials shouldn’t have any political reason to do anything. They should just be reporting what’s happening. They are now going back and reclassifying deaths as Covid. That’s not a conspiracy. It’s not a coordinated effort. It’s just what’s happening.

Wait, are you saying they are actively reclassifying past numbers that had already been recorded - which would absolutely have to be a conspiracy, a really massive one - rather then simply recording previously unrecorded outcomes that have wound their way through the normal bureaucratic channels? What is their motive for reclassifying past cases? What is their motive for not "just reporting what's happening?"

 

[Flugell]

Was just alerted a coworker died. 41 and per wife no underlying conditions. Got sick 2 weeks ago and died over the weekend.

So sorry to hear this. It is another example, like the young man (from memory aged 30) who attended a corona party and died as a result, that no one is free from risk and behaviour needs to reflect that. Please do everything possible to stay safe ALL of you.

 

[MisterPenguin]

No. I bring context to charts and numbers that have none. You love posting scary charts. You don’t love exploring what’s actually happening.

Here's a scary chart from the New York Time that I've been clipping...

Note the day that the Times calls out one of the numbers as questionable.

Note the same happened for NJ...

Also note there is no bump in the trend line for these questionable stats. The Times doesn't count it on their trend line.

You have all these states with rising death rate:

And here's what it looks like when collated...

Oh, look, the Times excludes wonky data from their trend line, and yet, death rate is still trending up.


And here's FL's death count...

Note the downward trend.

FL always has a downward trend because, as they say themselves, it takes two weeks for death reports to trickle through the bureaucracy. But between 6/12 and 7/6, you see the trend going up. The figures after 7/6 will be revised day by day.

The Times contacts each county for immediate numbers bypassing the bureaucracy.

 

[xdan0920]

Wait, are you saying they are actively reclassifying past numbers that had already been recorded - which would absolutely have to be a conspiracy, a really massive one - rather then simply recording previously unrecorded outcomes that have wound their way through the normal bureaucratic channels? What is their motive for reclassifying past cases? What is their motive for not "just reporting what's happening?"

Yes, it’s not a conspiracy though. It’s for accuracy, I hope. I can’t imagine any benefit, aside from possible financial payouts from the Cares act, but I know nothing about that, so I won’t speculate.

They are going back and checking the all cause deaths for potential Covid deaths. When they see one that lines up with Covid symptoms, they check it and if they think it’s Covid related, that’s how it gets reclassified.

 

[mickeymiss]

last thing i'll say on this. he also said on march 8 on 60 minutes:

"the masks are important for someone who is infected to prevent them from infecting someone else. now, when you see people and look at the films in china and south korea, wherever, where everyone's wearing a mask...right now, in the united states, people should not walking be around with masks. there's no reason to be walking around with a mask. when you're in the middle of any outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better and it might even block a droplet, but it's not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is. and often, there are unintended consequences, they keep fiddling with the mask and they keep touching their face."

again, i have respect for dr. fauci and his work. i am absolutely not criticizing him. what you're saying is what i said a couple of posts ago: they changed the message as they received new facts. but they did change the message. nothing wrong with changing to more appropriate guidelines, just silly to say that officials never claimed they weren't effective. they did, then they changed. okay cool.

I'll never forget a news segment (whichever one Lester Holt is on) where he walked all around NYC with an epidemiologist who said that no mask was required walking around the streets outside at all. Even a busy street and low risk on subways. That advice made sense but then it all changed. Why do they say things that aren't verified true? Everyone knows data changes but most good faith experts would say when they aren't sure. There was a lot of "NO MASKS YOU SELFISH JERK" rhetoric coming from everywhere.

We were told a lot of things as fact in the beginning. It went from minimal risk in casual settings to masks to shutdowns being the answer to everything. No small gatherings to protests in every major city. You can walk aimlessly on the beach but you can't sit. It often felt like they were pulling it out of their rear ends.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Yes, it’s not a conspiracy though. It’s for accuracy, I hope. I can’t imagine any benefit, aside from possible financial payouts from the Cares act, but I know nothing about that, so I won’t speculate.

They are going back and checking the all cause deaths for potential Covid deaths. When they see one that lines up with Covid symptoms, they check it and if they think it’s Covid related, that’s how it gets reclassified.

OK. But my impression - and this seems to be reinforced by some of the charts you have posted - is that what we are seeing is that it takes several weeks for outcomes to be reported up through the various levels of bureaucracy and, finally, recorded and reported. The chart you are referencing today seems to support this - it shows that, pretty constantly, about 12% of outcomes related on a given day took place a week prior, about 33% took place two weeks prior, and so on, which indicates a standard lag of moving from level to level. Penguin's info above seems to reinforce this.

 

[kong1802]

Here's a scary chart from the New York Time that I've been clipping...
View attachment 483474

Note the day that the Times calls out one of the numbers as questionable.

Note the same happened for NJ...

View attachment 483475

Also note there is no bump in the trend line for these questionable stats. The Times doesn't count it on their trend line.

You have all these states with rising death rate:

View attachment 483476

And here's what it looks like when collated...

View attachment 483477

Oh, look, the Times excludes wonky data from their trend line, and yet, death rate is still trending up.


And here's FL's death count...
View attachment 483478

Note the downward trend.

FL always has a downward trend because, as they say themselves, it takes two weeks for death reports to trickle through the bureaucracy. But between 6/12 and 7/6, you see the trend going up. The figures after 7/6 will be revised day by day.

The Times contacts each county for immediate numbers bypassing the bureaucracy.

Welp, case closed. See Penguin's post above.

We've rooted out the problems with data reporting it seems.

So now can we talk about what the numbers mean or where are the goal posts being moved to now?

If we could just get a heads up that would be nice

 

[xdan0920]

OK. But my impression - and this seems to be reinforced by some of the charts you have posted - is that what we are seeing is that it takes several weeks for outcomes to be reported up through the various levels of bureaucracy and, finally, recorded and reported. The chart you are referencing today seems to support this - it shows that, pretty constantly, about 12% of outcomes related on a given day took place a week prior, about 33% took place two weeks prior, and so on, which indicates a standard lag of moving from level to level. Penguin's info above seems to reinforce this.

Normally yes. But this week was particularly back logged. 3400 deaths added to the weeks of April 4th to May 2nd. Last week we added 140 deaths to those five weeks. That’s significant.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Here's a scary chart from the New York Time that I've been clipping...
View attachment 483474

Note the day that the Times calls out one of the numbers as questionable.

Note the same happened for NJ...

View attachment 483475

Also note there is no bump in the trend line for these questionable stats. The Times doesn't count it on their trend line.

You have all these states with rising death rate:

View attachment 483476

And here's what it looks like when collated...

View attachment 483477

Oh, look, the Times excludes wonky data from their trend line, and yet, death rate is still trending up.


And here's FL's death count...
View attachment 483478

Note the downward trend.

FL always has a downward trend because, as they say themselves, it takes two weeks for death reports to trickle through the bureaucracy. But between 6/12 and 7/6, you see the trend going up. The figures after 7/6 will be revised day by day.

The Times contacts each county for immediate numbers bypassing the bureaucracy.

Stop coming in here with facts.. and charts.. and sound views. This is not the place for it!