Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Right now it looks like it was sabotaged by greed/self interests.
That might be the most “American” thing ever.
I hope I’m 1000% wrong...by the way...to be clear.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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That might be the most “American” thing ever.
I hope I’m 1000% wrong...by the way...to be clear.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I guess we can put the conspiracy theory on CA not being on the list behind us.
oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
oh...we are doing REALLY bad over here. REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
That's why I said "if." I was trying to keep my personal opinion on the theory out of it.
The Tri-state might be following the rules better than AZ/TX/FL but I would personally expect wobbly numbers everywhere eventually, just not all at once. The disparity between areas will be interesting to watch.oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
I posted earlier today that I've seen a behavior change in residents, but while I can't speak for the rest of LA, in Santa Monica we have a tourism attitude problem. Yes, overall tourism is down, but the tourists we do get around here are vacationing as if nothings happening.
milordsloth
Well-Known Member
We haven't lost yet, clearly says "might see".
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Might have a few less tourists now from the tri-state area now.
baymenxpac
Well-Known Member
FWIW, i don't think you can extrapolate that way, because that weighs each population equally with the IFR, correct? so, for example, in NY state, 66.2% of the fatalities were 70-years-old or older, while 1.7% was under the age of 40 (89.9% of all fatalities had at least one comorbidity). this is not to dismiss that loss of life, it's just to show that mortality isn't evenly weighted throughout the age populations.
and, according to levitt, NYC has two-or-three-times the level of saturated death rate than everywhere else in the world. why? no one really knows. could there be socioeconomic and population density factors? probably. also, treatment does improve over time, too. for example, doctors here found out about halfway through our peak that if you put a ventilated patient on their stomach instead of on their back, their blood-oxygen levels were significantly rising (source on that is a CNN story that i read during all this).
anyway, no real horse in the race here except for...ya know...less death.
peter11435
Well-Known Member
So what if we might get kicked harder once we are down. We have already lost.
milordsloth
Well-Known Member
Southern California isn't doing great, at least half the state seems to be doing fine.
Phil12
Well-Known Member
Death Valley is doing great.
xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Dangerous way to put it.
interesting you chose IFRs above what’s generally considered the high end of .4
Using .26, you can cut your lowest estimate in half.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Well...
There might be just a “touch” of arrogance in Santa Monica.
That’s what you get for charging $60 a night for parking
hopemax
Well-Known Member
IFR predicts the death rate for an population. You can break it down by age even farther. So if IFR predicts 250,000 deaths. Then breaking it down by age, using your percentages, then you would expect 165,000 of them to be old people, and 4250 to be under 40. But the prediction from the IFR of 250,000 deaths in total, would still be valid.
xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Effective herd immunity is 15-20%. True herd immunity, ie wiping the virus out completely is undoubtably higher.
Yodascousin
Active Member
News from the uk is that experts are now thinking that covid has become less deadly from nhs figures revealing that the risk of the sickest patients dying from covid has fallen 40% since the start of the outbreak they believe that although treatment has gotten better it wouldn’t change the numbers by this much People in icu now have an 85 percent survival rate compared to 50% in March I hope it is getting weaker and it’s promising that more countries and data are starting to back up this theory. Hopefully this translates to the southern states So that although the rising cases is really worrying hopefully the deaths won’t spike
Rider
Well-Known Member
Source for your number?
A quick Google shows every source saying 70-90%
There is a point where even uncontrolled spread will stop being exponential (because most people already have it) but that's different from herd immunity which protects people who haven't caught it.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
About medical stats...I’ll defer.
On this? Gonna have to call it like I see it.
To clarify: mandating some in-person instruction ( a chamber of commerce type move) while making it completely up to BOEs and ambiguous otherwise is the equivalent of sitting on a barrel of dynamite in an electrical storm to me...which is dangerous.
Why not just say 0.0000%?
Problem solved.
And if I can pick a number...I’d like to pick 1,000,000,000,000% interest on my savings account, please?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Fauci has thrown some numbers out.
If - vaccine is 70-75% effective at lessening the infection rates, but 1/3 of the US population doesn’t take it...herd immunity can’t be achieved.
That’s too complicated for me to understand...but it certainly doesnt jive with the piddly 15-20% number that my disgruntled friend form Riverdale tossed out
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