Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

and we might see 100K cases a day. We lost.

Right now it looks like it was sabotaged by greed/self interests.

That might be the most “American” thing ever.

I hope I’m 1000% wrong...by the way...to be clear.

 

[GoofGoof]

California
Nevada
Iowa
Idaho
Mississippi
Tennesse
Louisiana
Georgia

I guess we can put the conspiracy theory on CA not being on the list behind us.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I guess we can put the conspiracy theory on CA not being on the list behind us.

oh...we are doing REALLY bad over here. REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.

 

[hopemax]

I wouldn’t sleep on ny/nj making a “comeback” in this game yet.

Natives are getting restless.

Cuomo added 8 more states to the quarantine list and Murphy just went on the mic

That's why I said "if." I was trying to keep my personal opinion on the theory out of it. The Tri-state might be following the rules better than AZ/TX/FL but I would personally expect wobbly numbers everywhere eventually, just not all at once. The disparity between areas will be interesting to watch.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I posted earlier today that I've seen a behavior change in residents, but while I can't speak for the rest of LA, in Santa Monica we have a tourism attitude problem. Yes, overall tourism is down, but the tourists we do get around here are vacationing as if nothings happening.

 

[milordsloth]

and we might see 100K cases a day. We lost.

We haven't lost yet, clearly says "might see".

 

[GoofGoof]

I posted earlier today that I've seen a behavior change in residents, but while I can't speak for the rest of LA, in Santa Monica we have a tourism attitude problem. Yes, overall tourism is down, but the tourists we do get around here are vacationing as if nothings happening.

Might have a few less tourists now from the tri-state area now.

 

[baymenxpac]

A little math to go with this.

In a country of 330 million people, this rate of infection would be 49.5 million - 66 million infected.

IFR of .5%: 247,500 - 330,000 deaths
IFR of 1%: 495,000 - 660,000 deaths

We're at 129,000. So at best, as a country we would be about halfway through this. But our deaths are weighted toward NYC / NJ. If NYC is essentially "done" than there are other places that aren't halfway.

Time will tell.

FWIW, i don't think you can extrapolate that way, because that weighs each population equally with the IFR, correct? so, for example, in NY state, 66.2% of the fatalities were 70-years-old or older, while 1.7% was under the age of 40 (89.9% of all fatalities had at least one comorbidity). this is not to dismiss that loss of life, it's just to show that mortality isn't evenly weighted throughout the age populations.

and, according to levitt, NYC has two-or-three-times the level of saturated death rate than everywhere else in the world. why? no one really knows. could there be socioeconomic and population density factors? probably. also, treatment does improve over time, too. for example, doctors here found out about halfway through our peak that if you put a ventilated patient on their stomach instead of on their back, their blood-oxygen levels were significantly rising (source on that is a CNN story that i read during all this).

anyway, no real horse in the race here except for...ya know...less death.

 

[peter11435]

We haven't lost yet, clearly says "might see".

So what if we might get kicked harder once we are down. We have already lost.

 

[milordsloth]

oh...we are doing REALLY bad over here. REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.

Southern California isn't doing great, at least half the state seems to be doing fine.

 

[Phil12]

View attachment 480542

Southern California isn't doing great, at least half the state seems to be doing fine.

Death Valley is doing great.

 

[xdan0920]

So here’s when I knew it was bad.

New Jersey has probably the strongest teachers unions in the country...and home rule gone amok that completely dominates near all decisions...

They released their school guidelines last week...which mandated nothing as suspected...except it Barrs full remote learning.

That alone tells me they are gonna have big problems unless the virus decides to move to another country.

Dangerous way to put it.

A little math to go with this.

In a country of 330 million people, this rate of infection would be 49.5 million - 66 million infected.

IFR of .5%: 247,500 - 330,000 deaths
IFR of 1%: 495,000 - 660,000 deaths

We're at 129,000. So at best, as a country we would be about halfway through this. But our deaths are weighted toward NYC / NJ. If NYC is essentially "done" than there are other places that aren't halfway.

Time will tell.

interesting you chose IFRs above what’s generally considered the high end of .4

Using .26, you can cut your lowest estimate in half.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I posted earlier today that I've seen a behavior change in residents, but while I can't speak for the rest of LA, in Santa Monica we have a tourism attitude problem. Yes, overall tourism is down, but the tourists we do get around here are vacationing as if nothings happening.

Well...

There might be just a “touch” of arrogance in Santa Monica.

That’s what you get for charging $60 a night for parking

 

[hopemax]

FWIW, i don't think you can extrapolate that way, because that weighs each population equally with the IFR, correct?

IFR predicts the death rate for an population. You can break it down by age even farther. So if IFR predicts 250,000 deaths. Then breaking it down by age, using your percentages, then you would expect 165,000 of them to be old people, and 4250 to be under 40. But the prediction from the IFR of 250,000 deaths in total, would still be valid.

 

[xdan0920]

Its pretty maddening right now that we just don’t know enough about this virus. So one theory is 15-20% need to get infected for the virus to burn out (Sounds great) and then a few posts later a CDC guy and researchers from Johns Hopkins say 70% need to be infected for herd immunity. Large discrepancy between theories.

Effective herd immunity is 15-20%. True herd immunity, ie wiping the virus out completely is undoubtably higher.

 

[Yodascousin]

News from the uk is that experts are now thinking that covid has become less deadly from nhs figures revealing that the risk of the sickest patients dying from covid has fallen 40% since the start of the outbreak they believe that although treatment has gotten better it wouldn’t change the numbers by this much People in icu now have an 85 percent survival rate compared to 50% in March I hope it is getting weaker and it’s promising that more countries and data are starting to back up this theory. Hopefully this translates to the southern states So that although the rising cases is really worrying hopefully the deaths won’t spike

 

[MaximumEd]

We live in a very connected world these days. It’ll make for great debate on how long it woulda, shoulda, coulda taken the virus to run its course the world over, but we “lost” the minute the first infected traveller stepped on a plane.

 

[Rider]

Effective herd immunity is 15-20%. True herd immunity, ie wiping the virus out completely is undoubtably higher.

Source for your number?
A quick Google shows every source saying 70-90%

There is a point where even uncontrolled spread will stop being exponential (because most people already have it) but that's different from herd immunity which protects people who haven't caught it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Dangerous way to put it.

About medical stats...I’ll defer.

On this? Gonna have to call it like I see it.
To clarify: mandating some in-person instruction ( a chamber of commerce type move) while making it completely up to BOEs and ambiguous otherwise is the equivalent of sitting on a barrel of dynamite in an electrical storm to me...which is dangerous.

interesting you chose IFRs above what’s generally considered the high end of .4

Using .26, you can cut your lowest estimate in half.

Why not just say 0.0000%?
Problem solved.

And if I can pick a number...I’d like to pick 1,000,000,000,000% interest on my savings account, please?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Source for your number?
A quick Google shows every source saying 70-90%

There is a point where even uncontrolled spread will stop being exponential (because most people already have it) but that's different from herd immunity which protects people who haven't caught it.

Fauci has thrown some numbers out.

If - vaccine is 70-75% effective at lessening the infection rates, but 1/3 of the US population doesn’t take it...herd immunity can’t be achieved.

That’s too complicated for me to understand...but it certainly doesnt jive with the piddly 15-20% number that my disgruntled friend form Riverdale tossed out