Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Dizneykid]

I will be anxious to see if this leads to increased mortality. Sending my prayers right now. What specifically happened in Florida that didn't happen anywhere else on this level? And I would love some data, not just the assumption that it's all bar hopping. People keep saying young people at bars but bars are open in other states. Did the north slow testing? My friend in NYC says people haven't been social distancing even before the protests. It's strange to me that most other states aren't encountering this. Vermont had an increase and they are still fairly locked down. But not NYC? It's more than a little mind blowing.

 

[legwand77]

It’s really hard to get a exact number when the true data is not being presented. Go to one site and hospitalizations are steady or slulight dip. Go to another and they are going up everywhere. Here’s a link of how things are being presented and why you(not yourself,I mean anyone) can not make broad statements. Ok, maybe a little you.

How many are sick and how sick are they? Here’s the South Florida COVID-19 hospitalization data the state won’t show you.

As new COVID-19 cases in the state hit record highs daily, hospitalizations climb and intensive care beds fill, leaders are becoming increasingly anxious about whether the infection will overtax th…

www.sun-sentinel.com

I am using the same source at that article , mentioned that article last night and explained the problematic way they presented , I look daily at the state hospitalizations from the same Florida government sites that are linked here all the time. Sorry those are the facts. You are correct that you shouldn’t look at one or two or a few hospitals as a guidance like they did in the article, that gives you a very poor idea of the current state, really should look at county/regional levels.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I will be anxious to see if this leads to increased mortality. Sending my prayers right now. What specifically happened in Florida that didn't happen anywhere else on this level? And I would love some data, not just the assumption that it's all bar hopping. People keep saying young people at bars but bars are open in other states. Did the north slow testing? My friend in NYC says people haven't been social distancing even before the protests. It's strange to me that most other states aren't encountering this. Vermont had an increase and they are still fairly locked down. But not NYC? It's more than a little mind blowing.

rapid reopening when things were not ready to be reopened.
- it gives people a false sense of safety. "oh, it must be fine now, everything is opening, lets go out"
-a lot of states just ripped through the phases week after week instead of giving each phase time.
-there is a huge resistance to masks in the states experiencing spikes. People have their opinions, but masks are in fact showing to be effective.

 

[Miss Bella]

I’ve been saying this for months on this thread. Every time I even suggested that an economic downturn was inevitable and that government imposed stay at home orders were not the only cause of the economy tanking people got hysterical. The virus caused a worldwide recession. Sweden was held up as the example for how we should have handled the virus. Doesn’t seem like it worked any better.

The economies in the EU are tied to one another. It would be like one state staying open and the rest closing and expecting the economy of that one state to thrive.
Since we can't turn back time and have a redo we will never know.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I am using the same source at that article , mentioned that article last night and explained the problematic way they presented , I look daily at the state hospitalizations from the same Florida government sites that are linked here all the time. Sorry those are the facts.

Because someone tells you something that is true.. but leaves out details, doesn’t make it a fact based resource. You must dig deeper, especially with the problems Florida has had with reporting things.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

rapid reopening when things were not ready to be reopened.
- it gives people a false sense of safety. "oh, it must be fine now, everything is opening, lets go out"
-a lot of states just ripped through the phases week after week instead of giving each phase time.
-there is a huge resistance to masks in the states experiencing spikes. People have their opinions, but masks are in fact showing to be effective.

Also most of the state’s that started mandatory masks, not just we would like you to wear them, have gone down. Here in PA we have been mandatory since March in stores. We are looking great and hope it stays that way.

 

[JoeCamel]

Where are the places that most transmission is occurring, beaches and parks or indoors, household, and close environments.

People that go to beaches and parks are going to the store on the way there, on the way back and while there. They are stopping at restaurants so many more points of contact. It is not just a day at the beach. Crowds gather without distancing. You are safer at home.

 

[legwand77]

I will be anxious to see if this leads to increased mortality. Sending my prayers right now. What specifically happened in Florida that didn't happen anywhere else on this level? And I would love some data, not just the assumption that it's all bar hopping. People keep saying young people at bars but bars are open in other states. Did the north slow testing? My friend in NYC says people haven't been social distancing even before the protests. It's strange to me that most other states aren't encountering this. Vermont had an increase and they are still fairly locked down. But not NYC? It's more than a little mind blowing.

the prevalence in NYC was probably already widespread back in March, their antibody are giving a hint to that

 

[JoeCamel]

Also most of the state’s that started mandatory masks, not just we would like you to wear them, have gone down. Here in PA we have been mandatory since March in stores. We are looking great and hope it stays that way.

Went to Walmart this morning with the new mask order in place. Kudos, they were turning away people that did not have masks. Last week less than 50% complied so this is huge. We also have been spiking a 20% positivity rate so maybe it is finally sinking in?

eta: This afternoon at Home Depot, full compliance and enforcement. What a change, it was barely 25% last week

 

[legwand77]

rapid reopening when things were not ready to be reopened.
- it gives people a false sense of safety. "oh, it must be fine now, everything is opening, lets go out"
-a lot of states just ripped through the phases week after week instead of giving each phase time.
-there is a huge resistance to masks in the states experiencing spikes. People have their opinions, but masks are in fact showing to be effective.

All those are opinions and valid, masks have definitlely not been proven to be effective in any meaningful way. The science is split on that for sure. Again to clarify for those in the back, not saying don’t wear a mask.

 

[disneygeek90]

What specifically happened in Florida that didn't happen anywhere else on this level? And I would love some data, not just the assumption that it's all bar hopping.

Bold of you to suggest that Florida is doing any reliable sort of contract tracing. I don't think anyone actually has this answer.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I will be anxious to see if this leads to increased mortality. Sending my prayers right now. What specifically happened in Florida that didn't happen anywhere else on this level? And I would love some data, not just the assumption that it's all bar hopping. People keep saying young people at bars but bars are open in other states. Did the north slow testing? My friend in NYC says people haven't been social distancing even before the protests. It's strange to me that most other states aren't encountering this. Vermont had an increase and they are still fairly locked down. But not NYC? It's more than a little mind blowing.

Most businesses here in Vermont have re-opened, although on a much more restricted scale. Our numbers have mostly been pretty low, I think our biggest one day increase in the past month was maybe 18 new cases. Mostly, it's only a few cases per day. But of course, our population is tiny, and our density is low. Our biggest "city", Burlington, which has the most cases by far, would barely count as a town in many other states.

From what I've seen, though, most people have been wearing masks and following proper social distancing protocols. I was a little disturbed, though, to see a big mask-less group of people congregating outside a new brew pub on my drive home from work yesterday (more than a few Massachusetts, NY and Connecticut license plates in the parking lot, thank you, neighbors!). We'll see if our community registers an acute spike in a few days...

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes and Florida will hit 10,000 very soon and like I have been saying, and maybe 20000/30000 in the next week or two. I honestly thought it was going to be over 10k yesterday. Looking at only one metric is pointless. Hospitalization btw are still steady and if anything gone down a bit, if you want to look one metric that is much more important, accurate and a better gauge.

I do think the new cases will begin to level out in 2 weeks or so , testing will catch up with the level of infection.

for those who hate the flu comparison, the good news is all these asymptomatic or mild cases really going to drive down the IFR. Which for under 17 flu is already much worse and for less than 54 it is near if not less than the flu already.

Forget about the public health side of this and just look purely at the economy. If everyone thought exactly like you then it wouldn‘t matter. People would just ignore the virus and go about life and there would be no impact to the economy or tourism. The problem is not everyone thinks that way. An article was posted earlier saying that 60% of adult Americans have at least 1 of the health issues that put them in the high risk category. People at higher risk are going to be less likely to ignore the increase in case load and continue to go out and about. That doesn’t even include the young and healthy who don’t want to get infected and end up infecting a relative in the high risk group who they see frequently. Some of those people will also cut back on activity. There are levels within high risk. Someone who is 65+ with heart disease, diabetes and high blood pressure is probably staying mostly at home no matter what, but a younger adult with maybe one or two conditions may be more likely to “rejoin society”. The more the case load goes up the more people will “sit it out”. The economy doesn’t work with more than half of the people not participating.

So while we may be able to keep the hospitals from being overrun thats the bear minimum goal. If there were more people taking this seriously and willing to both physical distance and wear masks its possible to also keep the case loads lower and that’s the best scenario for the economy. If the only goal is to keep hospitals from being overrun then the case load can go higher. They can cancel elective surgeries again which has its own health risks and economic impact to people who work in health care outside of the ER (think physical therapist who works with patients after a knee replacement and the administrative people who handle the billing and follow up visits). If needed they can bring in hospital ships or even cruise ships for overflow patients.

 

[legwand77]

People that go to beaches and parks are going to the store on the way there, on the way back and while there. They are stopping at restaurants so many more points of contact. It is not just a day at the beach. Crowds gather without distancing. You are safer at home.

We were discussing beaches and parks, people are still going to stores and restaurants the order was not safer at home

 

[hopemax]

I’ve been saying this for months on this thread. Every time I even suggested that an economic downturn was inevitable and that government imposed stay at home orders were not the only cause of the economy tanking people got hysterical. The virus caused a worldwide recession. Sweden was held up as the example for how we should have handled the virus. Doesn’t seem like it worked any better.

I have been part of this choir.

 

[GoofGoof]

The economies in the EU are tied to one another. It would be like one state staying open and the rest closing and expecting the economy of that one state to thrive.
Since we can't turn back time and have a redo we will never know.

But isn’t that what people wanted? This was a NY problem. There were lots of people outside the hard hit areas in the NE that wanted their states open.

 

[Dizneykid]

the prevalence in NYC was probably already widespread back in March, their antibody are giving a hint to that

So they're not doing better, they just got the worst over with and have immunity already? I don't know what to believe because the new narrative is that immunity doesn't necessarily happen.

 

[Miss Bella]

But isn’t that what people wanted? This was a NY problem. There were lots of people outside the hard hit areas in the NE that wanted their states open.

Before the economy was shut down did you ever think we'd shut down the economy over a virus? I didn't and I bet most people didn't. It's going to take years to recover from this, but that was probably their plan all along.

 

[JoeCamel]

Before the economy was shut down did you ever think we'd shut down the economy over a virus? I didn't and I bet most people didn't. It's going to take years to recover from this, but that was probably their plan all along.

Plan? Their?

 

[Heppenheimer]

So they're not doing better, they just got the worst over with and have immunity already? I don't know what to believe because the new narrative is that immunity doesn't necessarily happen.

As of the last conference our hospital had about COVID (Thursday morning), the current understanding is that at least some immunity is likely conferred in the majority of cases. At this time, we're not sure how long that immunity will last, though.