Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[milordsloth]

This is EXACTLY what I was saying would happen.

From an orlando sentinel article this morning: “Plans to reopen Disneyland Resort in California have been postponed, but the schedule for the phased reopening of Walt Disney World has not changed, a Disney World spokeswoman said Thursday.”

I still see almost no chance of WDW delaying the opening.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

From an orlando sentinel article this morning: “Plans to reopen Disneyland Resort in California have been postponed, but the schedule for the phased reopening of Walt Disney World has not changed, a Disney World spokeswoman said Thursday.”

I still see almost no chance of WDW delaying the opening.

As we've seen with other things, 2020 develops every minute.

 

[Horizons '83]

So, do you not believe that the AVERAGE age of victims is 80?

This is false. But you completely missed my point on the post you quoted. Avoidance strategy I see.

 

[DisneyCane]

The key to these numbers is the fine print saying the % positive is only those who hadn’t tested positive before. Meaning the % positivity number is completely worthless. The 6/24 data clearly includes a lot of retests.

There is no reason for them to not be reporting tests of new people, and the positive %. It’s hard to believe anything when the numbers reported are clearly ones meant to confuse. Just as in the report I posted that said the CDC is no longer attaching tests to the date taken, so a day can surge from tests administered weeks ago.

You are wrong about the numbers. The poster didn't post it but there is another chart of the total negatives and positives and the overall percentage including non-residents and re-tests. The "percent positivity for new cases" chart is THE important percentage. Removing people who previously tested positive from the calculation makes this number exclude re-tests.

Why would you include re-tests in this metric? Somebody who has already tested positive is going to keep testing positive until they are over the virus. Their result (positive or negative) is not relevant to disease spread.

You can easily with 6th grade math figure out how many new people were tested to pretty high accuracy. Take the number of new cases and divide by the positive percentage for new cases. For example, yesterday there were 5028 new resident cases and a positivity rate of 8.72%. Simply divide 5028 by .0872 and you get approximately 57,660 tests of new people.

Florida has always reported a "new case" on the day the test result was received, not the day the test was taken. At one time, the CDC tried to track the case to the date of symptom onset but that was only for tests performed by the CDC IIRC.

 

[Prince-1]

From an orlando sentinel article this morning: “Plans to reopen Disneyland Resort in California have been postponed, but the schedule for the phased reopening of Walt Disney World has not changed, a Disney World spokeswoman said Thursday.”

I still see almost no chance of WDW delaying the opening.

And I see that there is very good chance they won’t open as scheduled.

 

[milordsloth]

And I see that there is very good chance they won’t open as scheduled.

Where do you see a very good chance?

 

[Flugell]

[/QUOTE]

What if a lack of paycheck leads to starvation and serious mental illness? There are multiple life threatening issues at play. Making a choice for yourself to go out or not carries a risk but it always has. People transmit serious infections that kill people all the time. Is that a reason to shut down? I have OCD and voluntarily stay home a lot during flu season. I don’t catch the flu. I don’t feel like making people live in despair or financial ruin is the answer. High risk people can and should stay home if they want to. Businesses can and should do EVERYTHING in their power to promote safety. I’m tired of asking essential workers to bear the brunt of this. My dad worked at a printing company that was considered essential and would have had to work making college pamphlets. It’s completely arbitrary. He has multiple conditions and is thankfully retired. To say only they have to fight this fight while we rely on them is making me sad. I feel like everyone can do this in a safe way. I know nobody agrees but it’s how I feel.

I agree that mental illness and stress are issues to be considered but no one has mentioned the massive stress and worry of the vulnerable, who fear that without EVERYONE playing their part in following the rules, their lives are effectively over. Never being able to go outside without being fearful, never being able to share a meal at a bar or restaurant with friends, never going on holiday again. This is the stress that my husband and I are under. I have no figures, so please don’t ask for source but my gut feeling is that there are probably more of us in our position. That is in no way intended to belittle or disregard the terror of hunger or poverty but those things should be addressed with proper support. I fear our fears are less easily addressed. I have been outside my house twice since March.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Bingo. We should have gone with the cautious opening strategy in March or at least April. Shutting down had an immediate detrimental effect. Walmart being open all along was a perfect example of how arbitrary a lot of it all was.

Walmart is a large store that technically sells essentials but is almost always a supplementary grocery store. I’ve never seen a Walmart where there isn’t also a grocery store. Did Walmart have to be open? Walmart was always busy too. Always. They did require masks and compliance varied. That massive store remaining open proved rather quickly that any retail store could be safely open. Many small stores in my area crumbled while big box stores thrived. Small businesses could have done the same mask rules and survived.

I wish more people would just follow the rules for now and make this easier but we’ve seen that there’s no perfect strategy. There never was. We were repeatedly told that covid would be waiting for us whenever we opened. That seems to be true. The key is that most of us can be spared by using precautions and that we strive to make sure hospitals maintain their resources.
I think the median age dropping in Florida indicates that at risk people are protecting themselves and hopefully very very few serious cases result from younger people catching it.

Businesses were not chosen to stay open, they were allowed to stay open based on their business. Have you ever actually been in a Walmart? Most are now what used be labeled a Walmart Supercenter, meaning about 1/3 of the store is groceries which is hardly “supplementary”. They also include pharmacies and sell household maintenance supplies, automotive supplies and office supplies, all of which were generally included in the category of essential. Some jurisdictions did try to prohibit sales of non-essential items at such stores. Small businesses could remain open.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Just got back from my first haircut in months. My barber (and business owner) who was initially against the shutdown, now wants everyone to wear their masks so she can get back to work. She said I wouldn't believe how many people walked in, refusing to wear masks. It hurts her business and thus, hurts the economy. So, for everyone coming up with data and excuses for not wearing a mask, if there are rules in place - follow them. Otherwise, enjoy that hill you'll die on while everyone else is out of work.

 

[Miss Bella]

I

Where do you see a very good chance?

In their own mind.

 

[Lilofan]

Just got back from my first haircut in months. My barber (and business owner) who was initially against the shutdown, now wants everyone to wear their masks so she can get back to work. She said I wouldn't believe how many people walked in, refusing to wear masks. It hurts her business and thus, hurts the economy. So, for everyone coming up with data and excuses for not wearing a mask, if there are rules in place - follow them. Otherwise, enjoy that hill you'll die on while everyone else is out of work.

Everyone else out of work is no joke. Georgia leads the way with 42.5% of state residents applying for unemployment.

 

[Miss Bella]

IIts interesting how many people on a WDW discussion board are against WDW opening. You would think it would be the opposite. People have been waiting on hold for hours and hours the last three days so I guess there’s quite a few people excited to get back to the mouse.

I just got my emails to confirm my trip and magic bands have been sent. Six more weeks to a vacation . Finally!

 

[Hawg G]

You are wrong about the numbers. The poster didn't post it but there is another chart of the total negatives and positives and the overall percentage including non-residents and re-tests. The "percent positivity for new cases" chart is THE important percentage. Removing people who previously tested positive from the calculation makes this number exclude re-tests.

Why would you include re-tests in this metric? Somebody who has already tested positive is going to keep testing positive until they are over the virus. Their result (positive or negative) is not relevant to disease spread.

You can easily with 6th grade math figure out how many new people were tested to pretty high accuracy. Take the number of new cases and divide by the positive percentage for new cases. For example, yesterday there were 5028 new resident cases and a positivity rate of 8.72%. Simply divide 5028 by .0872 and you get approximately 57,660 tests of new people.

Florida has always reported a "new case" on the day the test result was received, not the day the test was taken. At one time, the CDC tried to track the case to the date of symptom onset but that was only for tests performed by the CDC IIRC.

The point is, the 6/24 data looks odd. If it is correct, then clearly the pool of those being tested was vastly changed. They about doubled testing, yet the % positive was about half, with total cases staying almost the same. The only time in the data that that has happened.

The numbers have never taken out people that aren’t in the general population. As Mom said, they have been testing prisons and such. The TRUE important number is new positive test of those that are not in a confined home (prison, old folks home). They don’t report that number, because it would be vastly different, and not support their, and your, narrative.

And of course it is important to include the tests on the day they were done, which seems to not be the case any more. And that is a HUGE issue. But again, helps with the narrative.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

IIts interesting how many people on a WDW discussion board are against WDW opening. You would think it would be the opposite.

Its almost like...people are worried about a global icon like WDW being open in the middle of a global pandemic that has killed 100s of thousands....

 

[Hawg G]

This is false. But you completely missed my point on the post you quoted. Avoidance strategy I see.

Opinion | The Covid Age Penalty

New patient data offers a guide to opening while protecting seniors.

www.wsj.com

 

[Horizons '83]

Opinion | The Covid Age Penalty

New patient data offers a guide to opening while protecting seniors.

www.wsj.com

WSJ has a paywall. But from the 1 sentence I can read, I'd urge you to read the difference between average and median is.

 

[jt04]

Source?




Source?




A huge portion of deaths could have been avoided if everyone wore masks and socially distanced and continued to do so. But, those deaths are counted.

The idea that you want the death count (closing in on half a million) to be discounted because the virus got into some nursing homes is ludicrous.

Besides only 5% of the elderly population are in nursing homes, so, even if you did discount nursing home deaths, it'd hardly budge the overall numbers.

This shows that you don't know what your talking about.





You are minimizing the problem with deflection. "Look at the number of deaths X causes!" Doesn't matter.

We have a killer virus on the loose and its still killing. We don't let serial killers just go about their murders because of the number of deaths caused by car accidents is so much larger.





It has been well known and discussed when COVID-19 became problematic that is was a type of corona virus, and some types of corona viruses are responsible for the common cold. I mean, this is COVID 101. It is common knowledge now.

SARS and MERS, both very deadly, are also coronaviruses. Corona viruses can be very deadly or just a nuisance. COVID-19 is on track to have killed half a million people in about half a year. But, you're comparing it to a cold... again. This is despicable.




All your opinion of the situation.




COVID-19 has been known to kill or seriously damage healthy young people.

But, here, again, you're minimizing the toll on the elderly and those with confounding conditions. Is it OK to not worry about them because they're old and have an illness? People in a nursing home don't count?




Again, minimizing. By comparing it to something else, you then claim it's of minimal concern. Things can be concerning in their own right without having to be as bad as something else, such as killing half a million people in half a year.






I don't know. But go ahead and raise a question to intimate... something?

If you want us to look at COVID in a certain context, then provide data; not your vague broaching of a topic with an unanswered question.





You have shown over and over again that the 'perspective' you want is such as to minimize the problem.

As others pointed out months ago everyone will get this due to it being so contagious. Either through natural spread or vaccines. Not downplaying anything. Just pointing out that the best strategy is keeping the numbers manageable until herd immunity is achieved or vaccine proves viable enough.

It would be nice if the virus just died off but this seems less likely. Not because we could lock things down enough. But rather it is too easily spread to hope to contain. Just reality.

 

[DisneyCane]

The point is, the 6/24 data looks odd. If it is correct, then clearly the pool of those being tested was vastly changed. They about doubled testing, yet the % positive was about half, with total cases staying almost the same. The only time in the data that that has happened.

The numbers have never taken out people that aren’t in the general population. As Mom said, they have been testing prisons and such. The TRUE important number is new positive test of those that are not in a confined home (prison, old folks home). They don’t report that number, because it would be vastly different, and not support their, and your, narrative.

And of course it is important to include the tests on the day they were done, which seems to not be the case any more. And that is a HUGE issue. But again, helps with the narrative.

In reality, what they should be doing is random sample testing every day in all counties at a statistically significant quantity with care taken to ensure the people tested are chosen at random. Any testing that involves people seeking out a test is going to have some kind of selection bias to the sample.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

NBA reporter

 

[GoofGoof]

In reality, what they should be doing is random sample testing every day in all counties at a statistically significant quantity with care taken to ensure the people tested are chosen at random. Any testing that involves people seeking out a test is going to have some kind of selection bias to the sample.

Yes, we’ve been saying this since before the re-openings started. It’s hard to implement though. You can’t force people to be tested. One way to achieve it would be to have the large majority of employers require random testing of employees. Then you get your random sample but if it’s just prisons or first responders or certain types of employers then you lose the randomness of the sample. I don’t think any state is doing enough testing yet. There’s a lot of room for improvement.