Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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robhedin

Well-Known Member
DLR announced that the re-opening on July 17 will be delayed. It would interesting if WDW follows suit.
The delay there was largely forced by the state though, and they’ve said they‘d provide the new opening date after the state issues new guidance (Which is supposed to be after July 4)
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Florida’s curve is ramping up because more people are testing positive because the virus is spreading. We can go back and forth on.” It’s because there’s more testing “ talking point. Sure it has something to do with it but it’s convenient to leave out that it is spreading.


This week, both Connecticut and Arizona conducted 1.7 tests per 1,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University's testing tracker. Yet, while Connecticut had 1.3% positive, Arizona had 22.1% positive for COVID-19.

Arizona hospitals on Tuesday reported the highest-ever number of beds and ventilators used for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients.

Although it accounts for some of the numbers, let’s look deeper and stop with that talking point.
As for the deaths, I think your correct, this week and next should be key in those numbers.
I didn't say it wasn't spreading. I said the daily death rate is flat.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
It has become political but it shouldn’t be to say that protests became a game changer in our country. Floodgates opened and it became impossible to justify closing smaller scale gatherings as the protests occurred in the background.
I support the right to protest anything but I am disoriented by the constantly changing rules about what is endangering the public and what isn’t. I’m flustered by the justification of one and not the other.
I don’t see how we can lockdown again. I watched a vlog of how things are going at the now open Disney hotels and was BLOWN AWAY. They are really being safe about everything.
I say open Disney and submit to the rules of that business. Bars need to step it up IF they are identified as transmission zones. Wear the dang mask.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
I ate 2 more slices of pizza today than yesterday. If I keep going at this pace I'll be eating 100 slices in a month!

I didn’t pick that number out of thin air, 2/3rds increase in numbers has held for Florida over two weeks, that’s the slope of the line currently. It’s horrible and should be alarming. However, as always in this country we are going to ignore a problem until it’s overwhelming.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
I didn't say it wasn't spreading. I said the daily death rate is flat.
I realize you didn’t say it. When leaving things out when talking about increased testing, well, in a way your not acknowledging it. It’s important to keep all things out there when discussing this.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
I didn't say it wasn't spreading. I said the daily death rate is flat.

It shouldn't be flat. It should be falling. It shouldn't have it a high and basically plateaued. Efforts of containment should result in continually lower deaths over time... and it's not.

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DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
It has become political but it shouldn’t be to say that protests became a game changer in our country. Floodgates opened and it became impossible to justify closing smaller scale gatherings as the protests occurred in the background.
I support the right to protest anything but I am disoriented by the constantly changing rules about what is endangering the public and what isn’t. I’m flustered by the justification of one and not the other.
I don’t see how we can lockdown again. I watched a vlog of how things are going at the now open Disney hotels and was BLOWN AWAY. They are really being safe about everything.
I say open Disney and submit to the rules of that business. Bars need to step it up IF they are identified as transmission zones. Wear the dang mask.
Problem with bars is you can’t wear a mask. Capacity must be extremely limited and somehow, I don’t know how but some sort of social distancing in place. Almost impossible for a bar situation.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Problem with bars is you can’t wear a mask. Capacity must be extremely limited and somehow, I don’t know how but some sort of social distancing in place. Almost impossible for a bar situation.
Yes this is difficult. It’s easy to tell them to shut down again but they need business so badly like everyone else. I think of most bars and they simply aren’t designed for distancing. Limiting capacity and spreading out is one way. It’s hard because it’s nobody’s fault if they are asymptomatic and no way to screen for that. I heard that some bar employees were not wearing masks. That’s something because they are there out of necessity and should be protected. Some kind of system to protect the workers.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Don’t forget, death rates lag new cases rate by about two weeks, the spike started two weeks ago; and oh look the death rate is just starting to increase...

Americas ignorance of science and it’s refusal to listen to scientists because it impedes freedom is about to kill a whole lot of people.
 

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Fauci said we shouldn’t need to lock down again. I wonder what he meant by that. He’s the scientist we are meant to listen to. I think we have reached the point of needing to balance the risk with common sense precautions. Open safely. I don’t know what most of us are wanting to see happen. Do y’all support lockdowns again? If we do that again, everyone has to abide by it. There can be no exceptions. We also need to understand that it will harm us all in other ways to shutter our businesses once again and further feed the mental distress of citizens. Elderly people are our most precious priority but many of them don’t want to be isolated like this. It’s very sad.
 

Prince-1

Well-Known Member
Don’t forget, death rates lag new cases rate by about two weeks, the spike started two weeks ago; and oh look the death rate is just starting to increase...

Americas ignorance of science and it’s refusal to listen to scientists because it impedes freedom is about to kill a whole lot of people.

We already have a whole lot of people dead from ignorance and lack of leadership.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Why shouldn't deaths be flat? The point of all this was to "flatten the curve." So far the death curve has been flat or slightly lower than the early period.

Before somebody brings up places like NY, until the last week, Florida never really had much of an outbreak and the curve never spiked before. The Florida curve is completely different than a place like NY. Florida's "curve" basically ramped up as testing capacity increased and then stayed roughly flat until very recently.

NY has just recently gotten down to the daily death level that Florida has been in pretty much the whole time. Next, somebody will mention the lag from case to death and how we can expect an enormous increase in the deaths in Florida in a week or two. While the lag from infection to death is in that range, the lag from case reporting in the stats to death doesn't seem to be that long.

In NY from the peak 7 day moving average of reported new cases to the peak 7 day moving average for deaths was 3 days. It was a little longer in NJ, about 10 days.

Cases in Florida started significantly increasing by 6/14 so we are already at 10 days from that significant and noticeable increase. If there was going to be a corresponding and proportional increase in fatalities there should probably be signs by now.
In March and April we weren’t testing people when they got infected. We were testing them when they were already in the ICU or at least the hospital. That’s why the positivity percentage was so high. Case identification were with people whose symptoms and illness progression were so severe that doctors were highly confident of who had it. So they died quickly after test confirmation.

Now we are finding more early cases. In younger patients. The lag time should increase over March / April because the previous lag time didn’t really tell us how long it took to go from A. case within a community -> B. case where the person gets sick enough to require hospital care -> C. death. We learned B to C time, but A to B time?
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Fauci said we shouldn’t need to lock down again. I wonder what he meant by that. He’s the scientist we are meant to listen to. I think we have reached the point of needing to balance the risk with common sense precautions. Open safely. I don’t know what most of us are wanting to see happen. Do y’all support lockdowns again? If we do that again, everyone has to abide by it. There can be no exceptions. We also need to understand that it will harm us all in other ways to shutter our businesses once again and further feed the mental distress of citizens. Elderly people are our most precious priority but many of them don’t want to be isolated like this. It’s very sad.

Unfortunately, the way these spikes are occurring I really do not see a way other then locking down again, we shouldn’t have to do it again, we should:

-Have universal mask requirements in public
-Have universal antibody testing and be frequently testing antibody negative asympomatic people
-We should have a vigorous contact tracing team that people have to tell the truth to under penalty of law (apparently in some parts of the country people have refused.)
-We should not have opened indoor resturants, bars or have any mass gatherings
-We should be social distancing at all times

But we aren’t, and clearly won’t at this time. Again, science is wrong.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
Fauci said we shouldn’t need to lock down again. I wonder what he meant by that. He’s the scientist we are meant to listen to. I think we have reached the point of needing to balance the risk with common sense precautions. Open safely. I don’t know what most of us are wanting to see happen. Do y’all support lockdowns again? If we do that again, everyone has to abide by it. There can be no exceptions. We also need to understand that it will harm us all in other ways to shutter our businesses once again and further feed the mental distress of citizens. Elderly people are our most precious priority but many of them don’t want to be isolated like this. It’s very sad.
What he said was this:
States with growing coronavirus outbreaks might not need to shut down again like many did in March, White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday.
Fauci specifically cited Texas, Arizona, Florida and other states with "a serious problem" as places that might need consider pausing or rolling back stages of reopening to cope with rising rates of coronavirus.
"I wouldn't necessarily say an absolute shutdown, lockdown, but if someone is going from gateway to phase one to phase two and they get into trouble in phase two, they may need to go back to phase one," Fauci said

The problem is most states are continuing full steam ahead with their leaders not rolling back a little or delaying openings. IMO they should do exactly what he said, it could save them for a complete disaster down the road.
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
Fauci said we shouldn’t need to lock down again. I wonder what he meant by that.
He meant that if people would just follow the guidelines we shouldn't need to go into lock down again. It's like when I tell the kids I shouldn't need to ground you again all you need to do is be home at the agreed to time and take out the flingin flangin garbage on Tuesday nite.
 

Unbanshee

Well-Known Member
The DLR announcement places blame on the government out of necessity, but they lay it on thick against the union backlash. There is no such (publicly known) union backlash in FL, so everything should proceed normally
 
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