Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[BrianLo]

There is actually no one correct statistic. That's the truth of the matter, anyone who says otherwise is picking whatever supports their position. They are all varying levels of surrogates towards the true real data.

For example, the case load may suddenly quadruple in the 20-30 year old demographic - which may not inherently cause a sudden hospitalization spike. But that is certainly extremely worrying that high risk populations could soon follow with so many additional vectors out in the community.

This percent positive rate is at best a surrogate for the states doing adequate testing to not miss an absolute ton of cases. I'm not sure why it is suddenly being flaunted as the be all end all of the Pandemics control. It is pretty meaningless otherwise. The percent positive rate (<5%) could have been achieved with enough testing of asymptomatic individuals anywhere at any time. Wuhan, New York, Italy, etc.

Adequate testing is just one very small slice of the overall pie. There were pretty reasonable criteria set out at the start, many criteria needed to be met. Now it has become a game of meet whatever criteria looks the best.

Or in some cases just ignore them all if none look right and continue forward. Time will tell, but so far we don't have a single case study of a country successfully ignoring the *overall* data.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wouldn't discount this except for one thing-- these data are provided by the state/county; the same people who want to open things up. with that in mind, I'd think they'd want to project a better picture and less fear.

Personally, I tend toward Hanlon's Razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

Adding in anti-body testing also increases the number of total tests. Since the government has pushed the narrative of percent positive as the gold standard stat we are supposed to look at if the percent of positive current Covid tests is higher than the percent of positives on antibody testing then combining them together will lower the total percent positive making things look better.

For example, let’s say you test 100 people for current Covid and 8 test positive. Your percent positive is 8%. If you also test 100 people for antibodies and 4 test positive that’s a 4% positive rate. If I combine them together I’ve tested 200 people and 12 are positive. That makes the total a 6% positive rate. So I’m reporting 12 new positives instead of 8 making my total positive count look higher I’m telling everyone to ignore total new cases and focus on percent positive which looks better and looks more in line when comparing it to previous percent positive that didn’t include antibody testing.

Not saying this is what is happening. Just pointing out why someone who wants things to open faster or stay open might include antibody testing even though it makes the total positive number higher.

 

[robhedin]

Adding in anti-body testing also increases the number of total tests. Since the government has pushed the narrative of percent positive as the gold standard stat we are supposed to look at if the percent of positive current Covid tests is higher than the percent of positives on antibody testing then combining them together will lower the total percent positive making things look better.

For example, let’s say you test 100 people for current Covid and 8 test positive. Your percent positive is 8%. If you also test 100 people for antibodies and 4 test positive that’s a 4% positive rate. If I combine them together I’ve tested 200 people and 12 are positive. That makes the total a 6% positive rate. So I’m reporting 12 new positives instead of 8 making my total positive count look higher I’m telling everyone to ignore total new cases and focus on percent positive which looks better and looks more in line when comparing it to previous percent positive that didn’t include antibody testing.

Not saying this is what is happening. Just pointing out why someone who wants things to open faster or stay open might include antibody testing even though it makes the total positive number higher.

I can see that.

I just have less faith in humanity I guess-- I tend to think the majority of people will see "higher numbers == bad" instead of "percent of numbers == good"

 

[GoofGoof]

I can see that.

I just have less faith in humanity I guess-- I tend to think the majority of people will see "higher numbers == bad" instead of "percent of numbers == good"

I think that’s true, but there’s no way to lower the total number of new cases without flat out lying. You can change the methodology used as I described above and lower percent positive and if anyone calls you on it you can justify it by saying you think the combined Covid and anti-body tests is a better way to look at it. I also think a lot of people are familiar with percent positive. As soon as someone posts a statistic about the number of new cases rising multiple people will point out that it’s the result of increased testing and that percent positive is what matters. The government has been pushing percent positive for a while now.

 

[CastAStone]

There is actually no one correct statistic. That's the truth of the matter, anyone who says otherwise is picking whatever supports their position. They are all varying levels of surrogates towards the true real data.

I dunno, total active hospitalizations seems like a pretty darn good metric to me. And it comes with the added bonus that we can't politicize it because Florida is refusing to report it - not a single person here knows if its going up or down.

 

[BrianLo]

I dunno, total active hospitalizations seems like a pretty darn good metric to me. And it comes with the added bonus that we can't politicize it because Florida is refusing to report it - not a single person here knows if its going up or down.

It’s a very good measure (and more meaningful that positive test percentage). But my point was it all matters, you can’t summarize the Pandemic by one metric. All surrogate measures matter and need to be improving (or at the very least be stable). For example A college campus outbreak in the Fall won’t register as well in hospitalizations.

I agree that it should be readily reported, as should everything.

 

[Rider]

Orange County reported 128 new coronavirus cases Thursday from the day before, its most ever in a single day, and 25 more than it saw on April 3, the peak of the first wave of the pandemic.

Officials have warned for more than a week that the numbers were starting to trend up, but until Thursday stopped short of calling the data the beginning of a second wave.
“We’re on our way up,” said Dr. Raul Pino, the state health department’s officer in Orange County. “There’s no other way to describe it.”
In Seminole County, Orange’s suburban neighbor to the north, the message was even more grim.

“It is coming back, and it absolutely has the possibility of coming back with a vengeance,” said Dr. Todd Husty, Seminole’s medical director, while wearing a surgical mask covering his mouth. “This is a big deal, and it’s getting worse. We were so close to zero [cases]. We were that close. And then we started opening up…This damn thing is opportunistic.”

Seminole hadn’t had a day with double-digit new cases in nearly two months, before having 12 new cases on Sunday, climbing to 29 on Tuesday and 34 on Wednesday.
The increase comes about a month after Gov. Ron DeSantis began to reopen Florida and on the same day he said public schools will reopen in the fall, though protocols could vary from county to county.

Officials in both local counties blamed the uptick on residents who are ignoring pleas to wear masks in public, especially indoors, practice social distancing and other precautions, which worked in slowing the spread of the virus when Florida was locked down in April.

Orange Mayor Jerry Demings as well as Seminole Commission Chairman Jay Zembower said their counties aren’t considering shuttering businesses or mandating residents to stay at home like they did earlier in the pandemic. Instead, they called on residents to recommit themselves to following CDC guidelines.

Seminole on June 5 lifted an order that required all businesses to make sure patrons and employees stood at least six feet apart.

“But if this continues to get out of hand, we have to take positive action to protect the community,” Zembower said.

In Orange and Seminole, officials warn virus is ‘coming back’

Orange County reported 128 new coronavirus cases Thursday from the day before, its most ever in a single day, and 25 more than it saw on April 3, the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. Officia…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Lake of the Ozarks Memorial Day party leads to new confirmed coronavirus case

A person in Johnson County, Kansas, who spent Memorial Day Weekend at the Lake of the Ozarks has tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment.

www.foxnews.com

 

[nor'easter]

There are two possible interpretations here, as far as I can tell. Both lead to the same conclusion.

Possibility 1: The science indicates that asymptomatic transmission is very rare and we never should have shut down.

Possibility 2: The scientists can't agree on what the science indicates... so we never should have shut down.

Possibility 3: Irresponsible bloggers who don't give a damn what most respected scientists advise should be shut down.

 

[techgeek]

Why do I keep feeling like nobody was paying attention to the exponential curve lesson we had back in March?

 

[techgeek]

For the numbers crowd, we have a new "community-sourced" Florida Dashboard, incorporating data from multiple sources. The project is led by former DOH Geospatial Science and Data Manager Rebekah Jones.

Florida COVID Action

Get Data. Get Tested. Get Help.

floridacovidaction.com

 

[Notes from Neverland]

Arizona is an example of why it's too early to assume everything can go back to normal. The story there may get much uglier before it gets better.

 

[Miss Bella]

Arizona is an example of why it's too early to assume everything can go back to normal. The story there may get much uglier before it gets better.

Meh..

 

[hopemax]

Why do I keep feeling like nobody was paying attention to the exponential curve lesson we had back in March?

I did see the scientists theorize that because of the people who did understand that lesson, as well as all the other important lessons, continuing to take precautions and staying at home, the risk of exponential growth is lower than it was. The future would be more of a long grind, heading steadily upwards. Which would make it more difficult for decision makers to act decisively. So we can look forward to all kinds of new trouble.

 

[kong1802]

Except states like Florida whose government is on the OPEN NOW side most decidedly *don't* want to keep fear up. And yet, we're told, it's happening even in Florida.

It seems this is happening due to lack of rigor. And a lack of clear messaging and national and international standards that give guidance to local county officials of how to do it right.

But you hold onto cool conspiracies!

It's my favorite part about a conspiracy.

You don't need any facts to back it up.

Actually for the most part they just exist when one doesn't like the facts......

 

[ThatMouse]

Florida's phased plan is supposed to only go forward if the "downward trend" continued. Since the trend is upward I guess we're all going to close down again. lol!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Florida's phased plan is supposed to only go forward if the "downward trend" continued. Since the trend is upward I guess we're all going to close down again. lol!

Yeah, not happening. They were the guidelines which most said they will follow. None of the 20 states or more are going back, it’s full steam ahead.
That was the whole point of phases. Open up one, determine over a period of two weeks that’s it’s still going down, if not pull back. Now it’s just keep moving to next phase.

 

[lilypgirl]

Lake of the Ozarks Memorial Day party leads to new confirmed coronavirus case

A person in Johnson County, Kansas, who spent Memorial Day Weekend at the Lake of the Ozarks has tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment.

www.foxnews.com

So just one person out of hundreds? Am I reading that correctly?

 

[GoofGoof]

Florida's phased plan is supposed to only go forward if the "downward trend" continued. Since the trend is upward I guess we're all going to close down again. lol!

I wouldn’t count on that. Just like it was way too early when one side took their “victory lap” after only a few weeks of reopening it’s too early to say the last few weeks are a lasting trend. Hopefully in a month it will just be an outlier and not a trend.

The scary part is community spread is exponential so it takes multiple rounds of infection to reach a serious problem. One person infects 2, they infect 2 each, those 4 infect 2 each and those 8 infect 2 each so you are up 30 people infected by 1 person but if it takes on average a week for each round of infection it will take a month to reach that level. That’s why you can’t judge the impact of an event a week or 2 later. It takes time to see the true impact.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Lake of the Ozarks Memorial Day party leads to new confirmed coronavirus case

A person in Johnson County, Kansas, who spent Memorial Day Weekend at the Lake of the Ozarks has tested positive for COVID-19, according to the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment.

www.foxnews.com

So just one person out of hundreds? Am I reading that correctly?

Not even. It's still likely zero.

Median time from exposure to symptom onset is 4-5 days. 98% of cases have symptom onset within 12 days. 14 days is the "better safe than sorry" estimate they use for quarantines just because two whole weeks is a nice round number. Memorial Day was 18 days ago.

The scary part is community spread is exponential so it takes multiple rounds of infection to reach a serious problem. One person infects 2, they infect 2 each, those 4 infect 2 each and those 8 infect 2 each so you are up 30 people infected by 1 person but if it takes on average a week for each round of infection it will take a month to reach that level. That’s why you can’t judge the impact of an event a week or 2 later. It takes time to see the true impact.

Except it's not. Exponential growth assumes that R0 is a constant value over time, but it isn't. Vulnerable populations are hit fast and furious initially, and then the disease slows down as it works its way though populations with more robust immune systems (i.e. not nursing homes). The curve flattens itself, in other words, it's just a question of whether it does so before or after a given area hits hospital capacity.

Neither one of those are what "exponential growth" look like.

This is what exponential growth looks like.