Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Not even. It's still likely zero.

Median time from exposure to symptom onset is 4-5 days. 98% of cases have symptom onset within 12 days. 14 days is the "better safe than sorry" estimate they use for quarantines just because two whole weeks is a nice round number. Memorial Day was 18 days ago.


Except it's not. Exponential growth assumes that R0 is a constant value over time, but it isn't. Vulnerable populations are hit fast and furious initially, and then the disease slows down as it works its way though populations with more robust immune systems (i.e. not nursing homes). The curve flattens itself, in other words, it's just a question of whether it does so before or after a given area hits hospital capacity.

Neither one of those are what "exponential growth" look like.

This is what exponential growth looks like.

Whatever floats your boat man

 

[lilypgirl]

As a parent with an upcoming freshman in college I am really impressed with how her school is handling on class campus in the Fall. Right now no mask in dorm rooms or dorms if social distancing can be maintained and the room occupancy is not changing. Mask only in classes if social distancing can't be done. No mask outside or in recreational facilities. Contract tracing is op in only but mandatory testing for all students prior to classes starting and than random testing throughout the semester for students who live on campus. Sorority recruitment will be first two rounds virtually and last two in person. Bid day will also be in person but parents will not be allowed inside chapter houses. Students leave at Thanksgiving and do not return to campus until Jan. Not that any of this has anything to do with Disney.

 

[GoofGoof]

As a parent with an upcoming freshman in college I am really impressed with how her school is handling on class campus in the Fall. Right now no mask in dorm rooms or dorms if social distancing can be maintained and the room occupancy is not changing. Mask only in classes if social distancing can't be done. No mask outside or in recreational facilities. Contract tracing is op in only but mandatory testing for all students prior to classes starting and than random testing throughout the semester for students who live on campus. Sorority recruitment will be first two rounds virtually and last two in person. Bid day will also be in person but parents will not be allowed inside chapter houses. Students leave at Thanksgiving and do not return to campus until Jan. Not that any of this has anything to do with Disney.

I got the alumni newsletter e-mail from the college I went to and it seems very similar. There are some social distancing protocols but the emphasis is on testing and tracing. The Thanksgiving thing is the same too. They didn’t mention the second semester but I am assuming Spring Break might also be cancelled so all students aren’t leaving and coming back to the campus at once.

 

[Rider]

Neither one of those are what "exponential growth" look like.

This is what exponential growth looks like.

Ummm... Both the red and blue have exponental curves for parts of those graphs. They don't continue to go to infinity like your second example because there are not an infinite number of humans.

However it is entirety possible that COVID-19 could spread to every (or almost every) human which is what the red chart is getting at. Even with a nightmare scenario like that the rate of spread will eventually slow because, again, humans are not infinite. Once a majority are infected the virus will struggle to find new hosts and eventually slow down. But it would still be exponental growth for a while.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I swear, Ohio could blow up and there'd be a graph saying... not really. Also, can xdan90210 be banned from laughing at everything?

 

[GoofGoof]

I swear, Ohio could blow up and there'd be a graph saying... not really. Also, can xdan90210 be banned from laughing at everything?

Why, we need more laughter in the world. I’m glad at least someone thinks this is all funny

 

[Rider]

Florida reports 1,902 new coronavirus cases, biggest daily increase as total nears 71k

Florida reported another 1,902 coronavirus cases Friday, the biggest increase yet in daily reported infections, as the state’s case load surged to nearly 71,000. There have now been 70,971 ca…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[carolina_yankee]

The Royal Society published an article in England on the efficacy of masks, including home made masks, even if not worn properly.

A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic

On paragraph from the Discussion section:

Both of our models show that, under a wide range of plausible parameter conditions, facemask use by the public could significantly reduce the rate of COVID-19 spread, prevent further disease waves and allow less stringent lock-down regimes. The effect is greatest when 100% of the public wear facemasks. It follows that the adoption of this simple technology ought to be re-evaluated in countries where facemask use is not being encouraged. Within the parameter regimes tested, the models also show that, if COVID-19 is to be controlled or eradicated, early lock-down combined with facemask adoption by close to 100% by the public needs to occur. This, of course, does not exclude the implementation of other management interventions, such as widespread testing and contact tracing.

 

[robhedin]

Whether or not masks are effective, this is the general attitude that is out there:

A revolt against wearing masks creates a new coronavirus danger as California reopens

Some residents are revolting against rules forcing them to wear masks in public, creating new coronavirus dangers

www.latimes.com

The Health Office of Orange County, California mandated masks, then got a lot of attacks, including at least one death threat. She ended up resigning and her replacement ended up ending the mandate under pressure from the County Supervisors.

 

[GoofGoof]

Whether or not masks are effective, this is the general attitude that is out there:

A revolt against wearing masks creates a new coronavirus danger as California reopens

Some residents are revolting against rules forcing them to wear masks in public, creating new coronavirus dangers

www.latimes.com

The Health Office of Orange County, California mandated masks, then got a lot of attacks, including at least one death threat. She ended up resigning and her replacement ended up ending the mandate under pressure from the County Supervisors.

I’m not a fan of wearing masks at all. It’s uncomfortable and hot and makes things generally unpleasant for any extended period of time. However, I understand the logic and also understand that this is what is required to open things up. Businesses need customers and if it takes me wearing a mask to go somewhere and keep the workers and other customers safe it’s a small price to pay to get things open. I find it pretty ironic that some of the same people who railed on and on about the economy and the poor small businesses as a justification for opening things faster refuse to wear masks now. Did they really care about the economy, the businesses or the workers or were they just annoyed that they couldn’t get their instant gratification? It seems to me that if you are primarily concerned about your own or other people’s livelihood you would be willing to sacrifice a little personal comfort.

 

[Kevin_W]

Whether or not masks are effective, this is the general attitude that is out there:

A revolt against wearing masks creates a new coronavirus danger as California reopens

Some residents are revolting against rules forcing them to wear masks in public, creating new coronavirus dangers

www.latimes.com

The Health Office of Orange County, California mandated masks, then got a lot of attacks, including at least one death threat. She ended up resigning and her replacement ended up ending the mandate under pressure from the County Supervisors.

That's quite sad. Whether you agree or not, there are a lot of things to get justifiably angry about in the world. To me, whether to wear a mask to the grocery store really doesn't seem worth the effort.

 

[disneygeek90]

I’m not a fan of wearing masks at all. It’s uncomfortable and hot and makes things generally unpleasant for any extended period of time. However, I understand the logic and also understand that this is what is required to open things up. Businesses need customers and if it takes me wearing a mask to go somewhere and keep the workers and other customers safe it’s a small price to pay to get things open. I find it pretty ironic that some of the same people who railed on and on about the economy and the poor small businesses as a justification for opening things faster refuse to wear masks now. Did they really care about the economy, the businesses or the workers or were they just annoyed that they couldn’t get their instant gratification? It seems to me that if you are primarily concerned about your own or other people’s livelihood you would be willing to sacrifice a little personal comfort.

I find it funny that the reason most people say they don't want to wear a mask is because it's not comfortable. I don't think anyone thinks they're they're comfortable. But... obviously these are extraordinary circumstances right now and people can suck it up until this is over.

 

[GoofGoof]

I find it funny that the reason most people say they don't want to wear a mask is because it's not comfortable. I don't think anyone thinks they're they're comfortable. But... obviously these are extraordinary circumstances right now and people can suck it up until this is over.

I never knew how bad Batman and Spider-Man had it until this pandemic Superman had the right idea, just throw on a pair of ordinary glasses to stay anonymous and avoid the whole mask situation.

 

[RevRemy]

I find it funny that the reason most people say they don't want to wear a mask is because it's not comfortable. I don't think anyone thinks they're they're comfortable. But... obviously these are extraordinary circumstances right now and people can suck it up until this is over.

Yep. @GoofGoof and I have the same thinking. In fact, my wife and I went from "masks at Disney, no way," to, if that what it takes for a feeling of normalcy, so be it. Trip isn't until October, so who knows what it will look like then. Even when we lost the dining plan, we saw it as an opportunity to save money. Her and I did Disney as kids and didn't have all the "extras" they have today and we still feel it was magical. Just being there will be enough for us. If some of the other extras are back by then, great!

 

[lazyboy97o]

I never knew how bad Batman and Spider-Man had it until this pandemic Superman had the right idea, just throw on a pair of ordinary glasses to stay anonymous and avoid the whole mask situation.

Batman’s cowl doesn’t cover his mouth and nostrils.

 

[GoofGoof]

Batman’s cowl doesn’t cover his mouth and nostrils.

It’s still gotta be hot

 

[lazyboy97o]

It’s still gotta be hot

Why do you think he only goes out at night? Black rubber spandex gets sweaty.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

So just one person out of hundreds? Am I reading that correctly?

Well, that's the 2nd person who was there known to test positive and it's unlikely that those are the only 2 - they're just the only 2 known so far to be traced back to that party. There's also this article about the rise of cases in Missouri recently and how events like that are one of the reasons for the increase:

COVID-19 cases spike in KC metro; local Ozarks partiers part of the problem, expert says

Coronavirus cases are on the rise in the metro, likely a consequence of increased activity where people aren’t following social distancing, health officials say.

fox4kc.com

 

[BatStang2000]

Batman’s cowl doesn’t cover his mouth and nostrils.

I actually have a Batman costume from the 1989 Batman movie that I wear occasionally for birthday parties etc. It is super hot hot hot. I also currently wear a cloth mask covering mouth and nostrils any time I go out in public spaces. I can honestly say wearing a mask to prevent covid-19 is much more comfortable, but not nearly as much fun.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Not even. It's still likely zero.

Median time from exposure to symptom onset is 4-5 days. 98% of cases have symptom onset within 12 days. 14 days is the "better safe than sorry" estimate they use for quarantines just because two whole weeks is a nice round number. Memorial Day was 18 days ago.

18 days really isn't that long ago when you account for when the person was exposed to when they started showing symptoms, to when they felt like the symptoms warranted getting checked, to when they were able to get tested, to when the test results came back and were reported.

Or, as you claim, it's "likely" that someone went to the Lake of the Ozarks with COVID-19 (already known to be true) and managed to infect zero people. I'll trust the opinion of the experts quoted in the article.