disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Another new daily record for Florida yesterday.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Good thing Disney's enforcing those rules just in time!
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Going through the counties, the ones with significant upticks yesterday were Alachua, Duval, Hillsboro, Orange and Pinellas. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm beach were in the same range they've been in. Alachua was almost 5 times the previous high. Testing football players returning to campus?
Possibly protest bumps? Although I would have expected similar in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. Phase 2? Maybe but is Phase 2 really that much less restrictive than Phase 1, especially since I don't think many movie theatres have actually opened.
Targeted testing?
Not really enough information to draw a conclusion. However, daily new hosptitalizations aren't particularly high and are still roughly flat with where the numbers were since the end of April.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Because of inconsistency in reporting it’s really hard to draw conclusions from daily numbers. The week over week change or 14 day moving average are better indicators of real trends and can smooth some of the noise in the numbers.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
The percentage testing postive, while we only have data through 5/31, does seem to be trending up. I would think that those testing positive yesterday may not be in a need for hospitalization just yet. It may take a few more days to see if that pans out.
Florida is now announcing they'll be hosting the Junior Olympic Games in Brevard County at the end of July.
Horizons '83
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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Looking at it as a daily number is a tricky thing. I'd love to see % positive with testing being the base trended over time. Maybe that exists?
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Kind of, but there's only visibility up to 5/31.
The positives, since they're so small on that graph:
Week 1: 4415
Week 2: 4320
Week 3: 4822
Week 4: 4825
Week 5: 5343
Week 6: 7383
monykalyn
Well-Known Member
A lower positivity may indicate that a community is including in its testing patients with milder or no symptoms. The WHO has said that in countries that have conducted extensive testing for COVID-19, should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.
Daily Testing Trends in Florida - Johns Hopkins
See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Florida
coronavirus.jhu.edu
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Of the people reported as positive yesterday, not nearly all were tested yesterday. Except for hospitals, the mobile lab and point of care testing, there is a delay between the sample being taken and the test result being reported. The 7 day moving average is probably a somewhat better metric.
Assuming the weekly stat is percent positive for new cases, not overall, the week ending 6/7 should be about 3.44%. It can be calculated pretty accurately with the data in the detailed daily PDF report. I assume they use new case positive because including re-tests of known positives makes no sense for trends.
A lower positivity may indicate that a community is including in its testing patients with milder or no symptoms. The WHO has said that in countries that have conducted extensive testing for COVID-19, should remain at 5% or lower for at least 14 days.
Who said anything about a new goalpost anyway? Just pointing out a different part of the overall pictureDaily Testing Trends in Florida - Johns Hopkins
See daily changes in tests performed and positivity rates in Florida
The Johns Hopkins site appears to be using the overall positive %, which like I said above isn't good for watching the trend because it includes people who previously tested positive.
wishiwere@wdw
Well-Known Member
Please include/share the facts with such a blanket statement. Antibody testing is now lumped in which means all of those who already recovered are now included as “new cases”, overall testing is up and all outpatient procedures, which just started up again, require testing (hence the lower age bracket coming into the picture). If the headline read hospitalizations have new daily record for Florida then yes, we are in serious trouble! This is all expected and ultimately good to have additional data points on.
Florida reports nearly 1,700 new COVID-19 cases, 47 additional deaths https://www.wftv.com/news/local/flo...-additional-deaths/PAHYTY36GJFSRHLAGNB2ILV25M
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Thanks for pointing that out about the antibody tests. I don't know why they would include those results as it makes any trend analysis apples to oranges.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
So the only ones going up were ones that cover Jacksonville and portions of Tampa and Orlando?
Thank god the County of Yeehaw Junction is flat, eh?
This whole pandemic is really confusing...not only the experts flip flopping on what is happening but even what I am witnessing with COVID.
In my state of Wisconsin...I figured the number of cases would see a huge surge once the Supreme Court overturned our governors safer at home order with the people packing in bars...it seem to have started a couple of weeks ago with an increase in new cases by record amounts. We were also doing a record amount of tests in our state and the percent positive was still decreasing in our state...but I figured that was due to more testing...as I had also notice hospitalizations had increased...however now with our testing remaining equal everything thing is moving in the right direction our cases, hospitalizations, and percent positives are all decreasing. In fact for the 1st time since the start of this are percent positive fell below 2 percent the other day...so I think next week will be more telling for what is going on in Florida.
In my state of Wisconsin...I figured the number of cases would see a huge surge once the Supreme Court overturned our governors safer at home order with the people packing in bars...it seem to have started a couple of weeks ago with an increase in new cases by record amounts. We were also doing a record amount of tests in our state and the percent positive was still decreasing in our state...but I figured that was due to more testing...as I had also notice hospitalizations had increased...however now with our testing remaining equal everything thing is moving in the right direction our cases, hospitalizations, and percent positives are all decreasing. In fact for the 1st time since the start of this are percent positive fell below 2 percent the other day...so I think next week will be more telling for what is going on in Florida.
Do we know they are including the antibody testing in the daily reports?
The website has a separated section for those and they are only updated on Fridays.
“We will be posting on the [Department of Health] website and making publicly available state antibody testing results,” said Helen Aguirre Ferré, the spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis. “Going forward, you can expect this information every Friday on the website.”
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It makes zero sense to include antibody testing in the numbers. This is why it’s almost pointless to look at any of the numbers at this point. Just let er rip and cross your fingers.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
That's the first I've heard of antibodies being added as an new case. Seems that belongs in it's own category.
monykalyn
Well-Known Member
Oh good gravy as previously said it is one part of a picture
That was supposed to be corrected and why there is discrepancy in some numbers.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/ From May 11
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It’s impossible to know what’s in and what’s out anymore. If they make a change to any of the methodology they report on they should be required to present a proforma analysis of what previous numbers would have been under the new methodology. Then you have apples to apples over time to judge trends. Without that they are making it impossible to compare periods of time. Is the new methodology better or just an intentional change to manipulate results?
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Did you read the part of the post about the counties that include Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach also being flat?
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