Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[wishiwere@wdw]

That's the first I've heard of antibodies being added as an new case. Seems that belongs in it's own category.

Oh I 100% agree. I do appreciate that we’re at least being transparent in FL, at least for the moment, in stating this is the case. Whether they actually make a change or not to correct as other states have done remains to be seen. Unfortunately, it’s also led to more FL jokes on the opening and click bait headlines for our case numbers jumping which further damages our ability to slowly and safely reignite our tourism economy.

 

[wishiwere@wdw]

It’s impossible to know what’s in and what’s out anymore. If they make a change to any of the methodology they report on they should be required to present a proforma analysis of what previous numbers would have been under the new methodology. Then you have apples to apples over time to judge trends. Without that they are making it impossible to compare periods of time. Is the new methodology better or just an intentional change to manipulate results?

Agreed. It also appears, at least in FL, to vary by county. Purely my opinion but I’d have to imagine it’s more a matter of things slowly getting in sync because we can’t report the data as one state of each county does their own method.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Did you read the part of the post about the counties that include Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach also being flat?

Yes...which is why I didn’t mention them. And besides... “flat” is the first goal...”Down” is the ultimate one.

My point was that Florida - for whatever reason - isn’t all sun and roses right now. It’s worth watching. So maybe “spray tan in a suit” won’t be so blustery these days.

It doesn’t matter...I said it upthread...people are entitled and lack patience, so nothing will be changed now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh I 100% agree. I do appreciate that we’re at least being transparent in FL, at least for the moment, in stating this is the case. Whether they actually make a change or not to correct as other states have done remains to be seen. Unfortunately, it’s also led to more FL jokes on the opening and click bait headlines for our case numbers jumping which further damages our ability to slowly and safely reignite our tourism economy.

Respectfully...that has nothing to do with Florida’s covid cases.

There aren’t legions of out of staters packed and ready to go once the “cases” go down. It’s the economy, silly.

But I do agree that antibody test results Shouldn’t be lumped in with the others.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Oh good gravy as previously said it is one part of a picture

That was supposed to be corrected and why there is discrepancy in some numbers.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/ From May 11

That's the CDC's reporting, which, if I recall, no one has been using. Some of the states where this practice has happened have reversed and corrected their numbers. No one has claimed Florida, the state we're mostly focused on, is doing that. In fact, on their dashboard, they have a separate tab for antigen reporting.

The failure of FL's death rate to decline in any significant manner and it's overall absolute numbers of positives for the disease bear witness that it's slow drift up of percent positives is to be expected.

 

[DKampy]

That's the CDC's reporting, which, if I recall, no one has been using. Some of the states where this practice has happened have reversed and corrected their numbers. No one has claimed Florida, the state we're mostly focused on, is doing that. In fact, on their dashboard, they have a separate tab for antigen reporting.

The failure of FL's death rate to decline in any significant manner and it's overall absolute numbers of positives for the disease bear witness that it's slow drift up of percent positives is to be expected.

I am not too sure about every county but Orange County has mentioned it is including people with antibodies in the new cases

 

[drizgirl]

I am not too sure about every county but Orange County has mentioned it is including people with antibodies in the new cases

How does that even make sense? If they have antibodies, they are by definition old cases.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

How does that even make sense? If they have antibodies, they are by definition old cases.

I guess if they weren’t previously tested, they are acknowledging that they had a case recently and therefore are of note?

 

[DKampy]

How does that even make sense? If they have antibodies, they are by definition old cases.

It doesn’t...which is what is making everything do confusing

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It doesn’t...which is what is making everything do confusing

Is there a standard lag on antibodies showing up? (I have no idea)

If “no”...then isn’t it conceivable the anitbodies Could be new and that person has had a recent or current case in some form and may have been a transmission point?

 

[drizgirl]

I guess if they weren’t previously tested, they are acknowledging that they had a case recently and therefore are of note?

But it's notable when people are connecting the number of "new cases" to the trajectory of the virus and how long things need to stay closed (or limited).

 

[DisneyCane]

That's the CDC's reporting, which, if I recall, no one has been using. Some of the states where this practice has happened have reversed and corrected their numbers. No one has claimed Florida, the state we're mostly focused on, is doing that. In fact, on their dashboard, they have a separate tab for antigen reporting.

Except for the story linked above from today specifically says that Orange County is including antibody tests that are positive as "new" cases and that they were included in the count for yesterday.

 

[robhedin]

The Johns Hopkins site appears to be using the overall positive %, which like I said above isn't good for watching the trend because it includes people who previously tested positive.

Side note: as an adjacent to my job I get updates with the full, raw COVID data feeds from every county in the US at least daily, and for some locations multiple times a day. That gets ran through a bunch of magic by our data scientists, and the final reports we get are pretty complex and thorough. I know that we originally used JHU data, but then stopped in favor of driving straight to the county provided data (even though its much harder to get and requires a LOT of validation) because of things like what you're talking about here.

Trying to keep track of who counts what when and how (and who suddenly decides to stop or change their process) has proven to be a major pain.

 

[Kevin_W]

Kind of, but there's only visibility up to 5/31.
View attachment 475878

The positives, since they're so small on that graph:
Week 1: 4415
Week 2: 4320
Week 3: 4822
Week 4: 4825
Week 5: 5343
Week 6: 7383

Graphs like that (many states have them) are a pet peeve of mine. The whole point of a graph is for easy visulazation/interpretation of data. When you put things on a scale that cannot be read, that defeats the purpose! Have they not heard of multiple y-axes?

 

[DKampy]

It is very muddled...I was told even though some states separate the antigens from the newly diagnosed cases...they end up adding it to the overall case count and it ends up being lump together as new cases...it also ends up increasing the percent positive...how is anyone going to get a good Grasp as what is going on is beyond me

 

[robhedin]

Graphs like that (many states have them) are a pet peeve of mine. The whole point of a graph is for easy visulazation/interpretation of data. When you put things on a scale that cannot be read, that defeats the purpose! Have they not heard of multiple y-axes?

Well... the point of a graph when you're presenting something is to help tell your interpretation of something. I wouldn't be surprised if graphs like this are telling exactly the story that they want to tell.

 

[Hawg G]

Thanks for pointing that out about the antibody tests. I don't know why they would include those results as it makes any trend analysis apples to oranges.

To keep the fear level up.

 

[robhedin]

To keep the fear level up.

I wouldn't discount this except for one thing-- these data are provided by the state/county; the same people who want to open things up. with that in mind, I'd think they'd want to project a better picture and less fear.

Personally, I tend toward Hanlon's Razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

 

[MisterPenguin]

To keep the fear level up.

Except states like Florida whose government is on the OPEN NOW side most decidedly *don't* want to keep fear up. And yet, we're told, it's happening even in Florida.

It seems this is happening due to lack of rigor. And a lack of clear messaging and national and international standards that give guidance to local county officials of how to do it right.

But you hold onto cool conspiracies!

 

[Hawg G]

I wouldn't discount this except for one thing-- these data are provided by the state/county; the same people who want to open things up. with that in mind, I'd think they'd want to project a better picture and less fear.

Personally, I tend toward Hanlon's Razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

No. It's all politics. There are most certainly some who don't want the state to reopen.