Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Anyplace that is testing more will detect more cases. Big picture.

That also means more people have it and more deaths will come to those at risk.

I don’t get how that month old excuse/comment from a moron makes this situation better?

(FYI...I’m not calling you a moron. You’re just the messenger)

Do you truly not understand this concept or just enjoy being argumentative on a message board? It is accepted science that, when doing any kind of sample, the more you sample the higher quantity of result.

If 0.05% of the population is positive at any one time and you test randomly 10,000 people in a day, you will get 500 positive results. If you test 20,000 in a day, you will get 1,000 positive results. If you test 50,000 in a day you will get 2,500 positive results. Because the virus isn't active forever, you eventually lose the ability to "count" a positive result if the testing capacity doesn't allow the person to get tested in time.

The reason the disease prevalence isn't equal to the positive rate is because there is a selection bias where some significant percentage of the sample has symptoms and seeks out the test. The "excess" sample is the part of the sample closer to random that gives the increased case count just by doing more testing.

There aren't really more cases, just more confirmed cases so there won't be more deaths. Unless you just mean more as in as long as the virus is still spreading, more people are infected each day and some will die, in which case I agree with you.

 

[Joel]

Does @Sirwalterraleigh just enjoy being argumentative on a message board? No, I'm quite sure he enjoys other things as well!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do you truly not understand this concept or just enjoy being argumentative on a message board? It is accepted science that, when doing any kind of sample, the more you sample the higher quantity of result.

If 0.05% of the population is positive at any one time and you test randomly 10,000 people in a day, you will get 500 positive results. If you test 20,000 in a day, you will get 1,000 positive results. If you test 50,000 in a day you will get 2,500 positive results. Because the virus isn't active forever, you eventually lose the ability to "count" a positive result if the testing capacity doesn't allow the person to get tested in time.

The reason the disease prevalence isn't equal to the positive rate is because there is a selection bias where some significant percentage of the sample has symptoms and seeks out the test. The "excess" sample is the part of the sample closer to random that gives the increased case count just by doing more testing.

There aren't really more cases, just more confirmed cases so there won't be more deaths. Unless you just mean more as in as long as the virus is still spreading, more people are infected each day and some will die, in which case I agree with you.

You continue to hammer points that are ultimately irrelevant.

“More tests = more positives” only validates the concerns, the crisis, the shutdowns etc.

You’ll get to use your pass soon...

You can’t claim “argumentative” when it’s been one google search and post after another for months trying to “win” the day. There really isn’t winning...and the loudest doesn’t mean most “correctus”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Does @Sirwalterraleigh just enjoy being argumentative on a message board? No, I'm quite sure he enjoys other things as well!

I like long walks on the beaches...a nice dry red wine...and the occasional slice of pie...

I’m also trying to ignore the 300th trip around this “is it real or is it not” carousel...so kindly do not tag me and I’ll leave ya be

 

[DCBaker]

"AMC is currently planning to reopen almost all of our U.S. and U.K. theatres in July, to be positioned to showcase Warner Bros’ release of Christopher Nolan’s Tenet now slated for release on July 17 followed by Disney’s Mulan now slated for release on July 24. So far it has already reopened 10 theatres in Norway, Germany, Spain and Portugal and expects to be fully opened globally in July."

AMC Entertainment Expects To Be “Fully Opened Globally” In July, Posts Expected, Massive Q1 Loss

AMC Entertainment Expects To Be "Fully Opened Globally" In July, Posts Massive Q1 Loss

deadline.com

 

[MaximumEd]

This thread serves as proof that if you torture the data long enough, you can get it to confess to anything you want. Believe covid is gonna kill us all? Someone has a nice graph for that. Believe it’s no big deal? Someone has a graph for that.

 

[Disstevefan1]

To eradicate it was never my point. Never mentioned it once. My point, again, was that if we are opening, as a lot of places are, we would hope that people would go about their business in a responsible way to not keep having big spikes. Unfortunately as I said, and we see it in a lot of places, open up and people act like everything is ok. It’s not and won’t be until we get a vaccine. Really, is it that hard?

From your keyboard to the protesters and rioters ears, (or screens in this case) we hope

 

[Disstevefan1]

So you are saying "Mission Accomplished"?View attachment 475540

Not yet....... I will reply on November 4, 2020

 

[mikietom]

I think the better way to look at the statistics is hospitalizations.

 

[DisneyCane]

You continue to hammer points that are ultimately irrelevant.

“More tests = more positives” only validates the concerns, the crisis, the shutdowns etc.

You’ll get to use your pass soon...

You can’t claim “argumentative” when it’s been one google search and post after another for months trying to “win” the day. There really isn’t winning...and the loudest doesn’t mean most “correctus”

I like long walks on the beaches...a nice dry red wine...and the occasional slice of pie...

I’m also trying to ignore the 300th trip around this “is it real or is it not” carousel...so kindly do not tag me and I’ll leave ya be

You are very skilled at deflecting the question, posting something that makes it seem like you have made a counter point and acting like the smartest person in the room. You should become a politician.

I'm not trying to "win" anything. I'm trying to put things in perspective. I never once said it wasn't "real" and I still don't. I'm trying to balance out the "doom and gloom" that tries to put the situation in the worst possible light for whatever reason using available facts, analysis and reasoned opinion.

Whether or not you see it, for months you selectively quote parts of my posts for no other reason than to argue. I'll leave it at that so as not to derail the thread.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I like long walks on the beaches...a nice dry red wine...and the occasional slice of pie...

I’m also trying to ignore the 300th trip around this “is it real or is it not” carousel...so kindly do not tag me and I’ll leave ya be

No one is arguing whether this is real or not...its real, no doubt.

As do you, and others, we all have a different view on this Covid19.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Do you truly not understand this concept or just enjoy being argumentative on a message board? It is accepted science that, when doing any kind of sample, the more you sample the higher quantity of result.

If 0.05% of the population is positive at any one time and you test randomly 10,000 people in a day, you will get 500 positive results. If you test 20,000 in a day, you will get 1,000 positive results. If you test 50,000 in a day you will get 2,500 positive results. Because the virus isn't active forever, you eventually lose the ability to "count" a positive result if the testing capacity doesn't allow the person to get tested in time.

The reason the disease prevalence isn't equal to the positive rate is because there is a selection bias where some significant percentage of the sample has symptoms and seeks out the test. The "excess" sample is the part of the sample closer to random that gives the increased case count just by doing more testing.

There aren't really more cases, just more confirmed cases so there won't be more deaths. Unless you just mean more as in as long as the virus is still spreading, more people are infected each day and some will die, in which case I agree with you.

Interesting point...has there been any random testing yet? It’s been a awhile since statistics class, but I would agree that without a proper population, the distribution of the bell curve will not be representative.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Please, please stop with made up comments.

We get it - you want to go to Disney world...and you want to feel like there’s nothing to worry about.

Unfortunately if wishes were fishes...

I do want to go to WDW, but that’s not why I’m saying, or typing, any of this...I’m saying it because I believe it.

I have plenty to worry about, but wearing a mask is not one of them.

 

[DisneyCane]

Interesting point...has there been any random testing yet? It’s been a awhile since statistics class, but I would agree that without a proper population, the distribution of the bell curve will not be representative.

Nothing recent that I am aware of with diagnostic tests. The antibody tests they have tried to do some random sampling studies. Depending on the sensitivity and specificity of the antibody test that was used there could be some major questions about the results.

The closest thing to random sampling would be the cruise ships where there were outbreaks, the aircraft carrier that had and outbreak and one small town in Europe. In those cases they tested everybody so I guess it is a random sample of 100% of the population. It would be informative to do some random sample studies which get a data point one day and then repeat the random sample two weeks later to get an idea of the disease prevalence trend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No one is arguing whether this is real or not...its real, no doubt.

As do you, and others, we all have a different view on this Covid19.

Not everything on the planet is subject to a 50/50 opinion. I don’t see any reason to rehash what has and still is going on. It’s a bad situation and the “over reactions” have been proven correct.

Now...as i’ve had enough of this...I’ll withdraw. That really changes not a thing. The “two sides” argument doesn’t give the wrong side more validity. Really it never has on any subject.

I do want to go to WDW, but that’s not why I’m saying, or typing, any of this...I’m saying it because I believe it.

I have plenty to worry about, but wearing a mask is not one of them.

You said that most have had it...that is not backed by medical science.

Ok...I’m really done now.

 

[carolina_yankee]

So, just to link to more reputable sources for honest discussion, here’s the Arizona study:

ASU scientific team finds new, unique mutation in coronavirus study | ASU News

Editor’s note: This story is being highlighted in ASU Now’s year in review. Read more top stories from 2020.As the coronavirus pandemic has swept across the U.S., in addition to tracking the number of COVID-19 daily cases, there is a worldwide scientific community engaged in tracking the...

asunow.asu.edu

And the Journal of Virology where it was published:

An 81-Nucleotide Deletion in SARS-CoV-2 ORF7a Identified from Sentinel Surveillance in Arizona (January to March 2020)

On 26 January 2020, the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case was reported in Arizona (third case in the United States) ([1][1]). Here, we report on early severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sentinel surveillance in Tempe, Arizona. Genomic characterization

jvi.asm.org

An ABC News article on mutations in general:

Yes, COVID-19 is mutating, here's what you need to know

As the virus that causes COVID-19 traveled out of China and proliferated across the globe, it developed small mutations that accumulated into distinct versions.

abcnews.go.com

And a YouTube upload of a Fox News story admitting its possible, but far from definitive. I normally wouldn’t cite Fox, but I figure they have a friendly audience here. Plus, I’m not up on British tabloids regarding their legitimacy in picking up the story.



So, it seems in principal it’s worth discussing. However, find your original sources!

 

[robhedin]

I think the better way to look at the statistics is hospitalizations.

Yeah, this is my overall view as well... this gives a good view of 1) how serious things actually are in terms of affected people; and 2) how well our systems are able to respond.

 

[sbunit]

I've mentioned it before on this thread. IMO, if the number of positive confirmed cases increases but the hospitalizations and death rate decrease, people should be doing cartwheels. Rate of positive infection alone, without taking ANYTHING else into context, is not an accurate assessment of the entire situation. Everything must be taken into account (rate of infectivity, route of transmission, number of hospitalizations, mortality rate, effect of therapeutics and protocols etc.) before determining guidelines and protocols moving forward. To just base your entire conclusion on a single point of data is not sound logic IMO

 

[lazyboy97o]

If anyone visiting Walt Disney World when it reopens is interested in getting a free antibody test you can get it by donating blood. They also have cookies.

Learn | OneBlood

www.oneblood.org

 

[DisneyDebRob]

From your keyboard to the protesters and rioters ears, (or screens in this case) we hope

I wasn’t just talking about them. They are all over now from the beaches to the parties to the lady screaming in Walmart saying her rights are being violated. They all need to grow up and do what’s best for the next person.