Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[xdan0920]

The number I quoted doesn't (only) come from that article. I included the link because I thought you would find the additional context helpful and interesting. I explained where the number comes from in the last post, and yes, that these are the correct numbers for the measured transmission rate of this virus. If you or (anyone else) would like more details, I'm happy to walk you through how you arrive at these numbers.

Pass. You have no real numbers because they don’t exist. It’s all estimates at this point.

FWIW....

“Based on what experts know about the contagiousness of the novel coronavirus, "the critical threshold for achieving that herd protection for COVID-19 is between 50% and 66%," Dr. Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University told ABC News.”

 

[danlb_2000]

Don’t be so sure. Just when we think we understand this virus, we get a story like this:

LINK

“Most new Covid-19 hospitalizations in New York state are from people who were staying home and not venturing much outside, a "shocking" finding, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.”

The problem with these statistics is they didn't addresses whether other people were coming and going from the house. If you are staying home and no one else is coming and going from your house it would be really hard to get infected. There is no reason to believe that the infection rate would be the same if we continued to live life like we did before the outbreak.

 

[Hawg G]

Everybody? Well it must have been everybody not on this thread. There has been thousands of predictions from April 1st through August and every day in between. Have seen a couple of them later, I was one of them saying August. Don’t remember one post where someone said next year unless I missed it. Majority was saying every 2 weeks as the last date would go by without a opening.

I love the short memories everyone has. I saw NOBODY thinking Disney would open in July until very recently, probably when it was known Universal was opening soon.

Plenty of folks said Epcot was done for the year. People were saying not till after summer.

I mean, until Universal's move, many were saying the whole country would be closed for a lot more time.

But, yeah, sure,you all thought this would happen...

 

[October82]

Pass. You have no real numbers because they don’t exist. It’s all estimates at this point.

If believing that helps you win an internet argument, I won't object.

“Based on what experts know about the contagiousness of the novel coronavirus, "the critical threshold for achieving that herd protection for COVID-19 is between 50% and 66%," Dr. Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University told ABC News.”

I'd have to see if this person has done more detailed modeling, but the upper range of that estimate is the ~70% estimate I mentioned earlier with a slightly lower value for the intrinsic transmission rate and excluding the effects of the long incubation time and asymptomatic transmission. Just to reiterate, values near 70% are what you get when you work out the total infected number as a direct mathematical consequence of the observed transmission rates. That makes it a lower bound. To achieve the 50% number would require the measured transmission rates to be off by 30-40% relative to their measured values. I will look into where his numbers came from though.

 

[BaconPancakes]

I love the short memories everyone has. I saw NOBODY thinking Disney would open in July until very recently, probably when it was known Universal was opening soon.

Plenty of folks said Epcot was done for the year. People were saying not till after summer.

I mean, until Universal's move, many were saying the whole country would be closed for a lot more time.

But, yeah, sure,you all thought this would happen...

I saw a lot of posters giving July as their estimate, but maybe our definition of nobody varies.

 

[Tonybme]

If the title of an article is a question, the answer is usually "no".

The Uncounted Dead
Why some people who likely died from COVID-19 aren’t included in the final numbers.

The Uncounted Dead

Why some people who likely died from COVID-19 aren’t included in the final numbers.

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I saw a lot of posters giving July as their estimate, but maybe our definition of nobody varies.

Same. I remember several saying would for sure be after July 4, which it is.

I am personally surprised that dhs and Epcot are opening so close to the other parks, I’m guessing that changed. DHS will need a super low capacity without shows, but of course the small park won’t require a lot of staffing to operate.

 

[DCBaker]

Parades are back in Shanghai -

 

[Disney Analyst]

Parades are back in Shanghai -

And physical distancing is... out?

 

[BaconPancakes]

DongDong?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

And physical distancing is... out?

Very much out by the video. So much for the stricked guidelines that would be imposed for awhile. Guess a few weeks is awhile.

 

[BaconPancakes]

Very much out by the video. So much for the stricked guidelines that would be imposed for awhile. Guess a few weeks is awhile.

Sadly I think it will be the same story at WDW. They’ll half try to enforce the guidelines for a few weeks and then they’ll let the guests get away with whatever they want.

 

[disneygeek90]

Would Universal and WDW need to get approvals from Orange County once they do lift restrictions? It seems odd that they would require approval to reopen under specific conditions but not also need it to change any procedures rolled out.

 

[Epcotfan21]

Very much out by the video. So much for the stricked guidelines that would be imposed for awhile. Guess a few weeks is awhile.

It will be the same story with the guests mask mandate.

 

[BaconPancakes]

It will be the same story with the guests mask mandate.

It’s already happening at DS. People walking around with no mask and security doesn’t make a peep.

 

[Tom P.]

Math is hard with big numbers so here it goes...

There are ~330,000,000 people in the US.
10% would be 33,000,000 *Rates seen in Italy
5% would be 16,500,000
1% would be 3,300,000 *Global rate claim 1-5%
.5% would be 1,650,000
.4% would be 1,320,000 *CDC rate claim, excluding deaths not tested/counted

So 1.3 million people would die if we let .4% of the population die. It sounds, small, but .. math.

Take also into account that older people and people with underlying conditions (overweight, obese, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc) have the highest chance of death as well, and lets be honest - there are a lot of both of those groups that exist in US.

The age factor -

48% death rate for 75+
22% death rate for 45-77
3.9% death rate for 18-44

That doesn't include the ones with ongoing life long impact to their bodies because instead of death they had strokes, heart attacks, months on a ventilator, etc.

So again, please tell me how my number was wrong?

The death rate is the number of infected people who die, not the percentage of the population that dies. Your numbers are only correct if 100% of the population is infected. There is no virus that infects 100% of the population.

 

[MisterPenguin]

If you keep the virus out of the nursing homes, the mortality rate drops significantly for the older population as well. With respect to WDW, if you are over 65 (maybe even 60) you shouldn't go right now. If you are younger but can't stay away from close contact with people over 60 when you return from your trip then you shouldn't go either.

The vast majority of the spread is happening with prolonged, close contact, not momentary encounters with strangers at the grocery store.

Only 5% of the elderly are in nursing homes.

 

[brianstl]

Only 5% of the elderly are in nursing homes.

Yet one in 5 residents in NY nursing homes has died of COVID. Not one in five COVID cases in NY nursing homes has died of COVID 19, but one in five residents. That is devastating mortality rate.

 

[Kevin_W]

And physical distancing is... out?

I know we're all skeptical of numbers from China, but if the stats are to be believed, then Shanghai is averaging ~1 Covid case per day in May. I would hope that we wouldn't need strict social distancing if the disease is that well contained.

(That said, totalitarian government or no it seems odd that Shanghai has ~1 case for every 500 that New York has.)

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I know we're all skeptical of numbers from China, but if the stats are to be believed, then Shanghai is averaging ~1 Covid case per day in May. I would hope that we wouldn't need strict social distancing if the disease is that well contained.

(That said, totalitarian government or no it seems odd that Shanghai has ~1 case for every 500 that New York has.)

Yeah, sorry, just can’t believe any of the figures from China. I think it’s all been questioned so far, no reason to think it’s accurate now.