Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
Work with CNC machines, there's about 15 people in my department.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Yodascousin
Active Member
It’s just been found that France’s first case of the virus was 27th December I think it’s safe to assume that in Europe at least it was circulating a lot earlier then previously thought, not sure if that’s a good or bad thing!
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Something to keep in mind regarding testing and the cases they produce. For some reason that I still have not wrapped my head around, the tests produce more false positives when doing large sample testing in an area that has a low disease prevalence and more false negatives when you test an area with high disease prevalence. Even though I don't fully understand it yet, I have seen this described in multiple technical papers on screening tests. It was even mentioned by Dr. Birx in a couple of the briefings and included in the testing road map document related to antibody testing and coming up with recommendations to reduce the number of false positives (because they don't want somebody thinking they are immune if they aren't).
Therefore, there is a big hole in the logic that copious testing is the key to stopping the pandemic. While it is very helpful in identifying trends, even if you had the ability to test every single person today, you wouldn't find every single person with an active (and contagious) infection and identify every single person that isn't infected.
For the antibody tests, the just approved Roche test was designed for no false negatives and very tiny (0.2%) percentage of false positives. However, they stated that to get that level of accuracy the test requires blood being drawn and not a simple finger prick.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Ironically, you are at a higher risk at a church service than in an outdoor stadium. It doesn't matter that there are 80,000 people at the football game. It's the type of contact that mattes most, not the sheer number of people at a gathering. Church is indoors and enclosed and you are likely to be in prolonged and close contact with more people than at a football game.
The biggest risk at a stadium is going to be when everybody tries to exit simultaneously when the game ends and people are packed shoulder to shoulder moving slowly towards the exit. If an orderly exit plan could be developed to keep that from happening, bathrooms capacity controlled and lines (security, concession and bathroom) were socially distanced, a football game would be relatively low risk, especially if fans wear masks most of the time.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Especially since South Korea, the country which appears to have controlled spread the best, has IR temperature screening as a major part of their strategy. There's at least some evidence that it is an effective way to help control the spread and identify infected people.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
At least in my church, services are usually shorter than a football game!
And seating would is far more spread out. But the demographics are very different.I'd be about equally comfortable at either.
Calmdownnow
Well-Known Member
And the person who was ill had not traveled overseas, but his wife - who did not have symptoms - worked at a shop near the main airport and may have been infected there.
Polynesia
Well-Known Member
Maybe opening schools isn’t such a good idea https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sc...matory-symptoms-strike-kids-with-covid-19/amp
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
"It's not yet possible to know for certain whether the virus is actually causing this.
Cases of Kawasaki disease, while rare, do appear to rise in springtime and in fall, for reasons that still remain a mystery – and so it could be a coincidence in some cases that the patients also have the coronavirus."
Not surprised to see an article like this since the fear factor is slowly loosing steam. "Protect the children"!!! I'm sure we will see more. And oh ya, don't forget the killer hornets that are coming to kill us all!!
Stay inside!! Be afraid!
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
IHME has updated their model again, this time the model shows a significantly longer tail of hospitalizations/deaths than the previous models.
I haven't checked other states, but their numbers for Ohio do not match what the state has published:
Ohio is close to their previous model with deaths per day peaking in mid-April and then dropping down. IHME's new model shows a large increase in the past week. Maybe they are expecting future deaths to be backdated to this past week? I don't know, but it's odd.
I haven't checked other states, but their numbers for Ohio do not match what the state has published:
Ohio is close to their previous model with deaths per day peaking in mid-April and then dropping down. IHME's new model shows a large increase in the past week. Maybe they are expecting future deaths to be backdated to this past week? I don't know, but it's odd.
Polynesia
Well-Known Member
Florida has drastically changed, also. It’s very odd that they did this. I’m going to watch the state stats rather than this model.
It will be interesting to see this actually happen. It feels like there have been reports of Shanghai opening 'soon' for months now.
I have to agree. While I would hope no child gets that illness, it is not a permanent condition and children usually recover fully. Nothing to cancel school systems over. We don't stop schools because of bacterial meningitis.
I don't think orderly conduct in a NFL game is really realistic especially when the fans start drinking at the tailgate parties before the game and continue enjoying throughout the game.
Killer hornets, meningitis, blood cells on fire. ..meh, we should probly just buy more toilet paper.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Although it is rare does not mean to dismiss it. Could be linked to many things and needs more research. Your dismissal of everything being because of fear is more detrimental then warning that this could be something and needs more research.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Modeling is so useless. At best its a guess, and as we see, many times a wrong guess.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
Especially considering they saw six cases in a week and how we already know that COVID-19 can go after basically any system within the body.
To be fair, that's all models ever are. They are educated guesses that are used to make decisions. But rather doing it blind you try to find the least inaccurate model available to help guide you to make the more correct decision.
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