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Chris (This doesn't look good)

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's what I say too. He's getting better orginized and the gulf waters are very warm. It is def. something to keep a watch on.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Here's the latest discussion from the NHC... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml




TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62
KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG
ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT
SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE
TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.8N 62.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

napnet

Active Member
Hrm, looks bad for the gulf region.... hopfully it stays away from the panhandle... i don't think we could take a hurricane... no where near ready
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
napnet said:
Hrm, looks bad for the gulf region.... hopfully it stays away from the panhandle... i don't think we could take a hurricane... no where near ready
No one in the Gulf region needs a hurricane. Everything is still torn up from LA on to the panhandle. Tx., I'm sure hasn't quiet recovered from Rita (was it?) last year either.
 

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
Don't lose heart yet. They were talking on our local news last night that it may go on more western route, which would/could take it over Hispanola and the mountains would tear it apart. It's too early to start speculating directions and landfall.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Here's the 8am advisory.....

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES... 105 KM...NORTH OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS
MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION... 19.0 N 63.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
 

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
SpongeScott said:
Don't lose heart yet. They were talking on our local news last night that it may go on more western route, which would/could take it over Hispanola and the mountains would tear it apart. It's too early to start speculating directions and landfall.
*crosses fingers* that it does.
The track now is showing no land interference.
 

Erika

Moderator
Hang in there, guys. :(



23_29_107v.gif
 

napnet

Active Member
SpongeScott said:
and I am now in the 5 day cone....

Something tells me most of FL will be by Friday

wdwprincess03 said:
Well I guess I'll be busy at work this week. (I work for Lowes now)

Ha, i still have all my plywood from the 2004 season... the big bend area of fl is the only area not to have a cat 1 hurricane in 25 years...
 

Nemo14

Well-Known Member
napnet said:
Ha, i still have all my plywood from the 2004 season... the big bend area of fl is the only area not to have a cat 1 hurricane in 25 years...
You'd better knock on wood for that! (maybe all that plywood :rolleyes: ?)
 
I really don't want another 'cane to come thru here.....geez!

The four or five computer models don't all agree; a couple of them had Chris fizzling out. He (or is it a she?) just needs to go away!
 

DDuckFan130

Well-Known Member
On the bright side, we may get the chance to test the new shutters and generator :lookaroun

I would rather not have to deal with another hurricane, but eh we shall wait and see.
 

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
golden redhead said:
I really don't want another 'cane to come thru here.....geez!

The four or five computer models don't all agree; a couple of them had Chris fizzling out. He (or is it a she?) just needs to go away!
This one is a he.
 

Debbie

Well-Known Member
DDuckFan130 said:
On the bright side, we may get the chance to test the new shutters and generator :lookaroun

I would rather not have to deal with another hurricane, but eh we shall wait and see.


Please tell me what David Bernard is saying in Miami. He is a very good forecaster.
 

DDuckFan130

Well-Known Member
Debbie said:
Please tell me what David Bernard is saying in Miami. He is a very good forecaster.
It took me a bit to figure out who you were talking about :lookaroun :lol:

I don't normally watch CBS, but I found him. He and another good forecaster (Bryan Norcross) basically said what other forecasters here are saying. We're not out of the woods yet, but everything seems to indicate that the most we'll get are remnants of Chris and nothing to be concerned about. David Bernard (btw, he's cute! :lookaroun) specifically mentioned the mountainous obstacles in Cuba and all the dry air that is preventing Chris from strengthening.
 

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