Changes for Galaxy's Edge Temporarily On Hold

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You mean like previously daily entertainment like jammitors and Main Street Philharmonic being cut to 5 days a week? And other daily entertainment like muppets, banjo brothers, pirates show, royal majesty makers, world showcase players, etc. being cut entirely over the years?

As I said, I was just starting to get hopeful seeing the crowds visiting dhs for Rise and Epcot for the arts festival.

One ride doesn’t lure people in for a 7 day/$10,000 trip...that’s their game.
And the arts festival is a displaced cupcake party targeted to Florida residents...that’s not moving the needle much either.

I’ll expect an expansion of things like Halloween and Christmas parties...those things have Caught a tangible following that spur new travel now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Hopefully it won't come to this but I recall in news reports in the early 2000s, that it was extreme belt tightening such as part time teams not being scheduled to work, Disney University shut down, no raises given to salaried teams, dining areas and entertainment shows at the parks not operating everyday as cost cutters under Eisner.

That was my era.

All those things happened for a multitude of reasons...some are more heavily blamed than they should be...others not as much as they should.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

And the arts festival is a displaced cupcake party targeted to Florida residents...that’s not moving the needle much either.

I’m not a Florida resident and it brought me back just 3 weeks after my New Years trip specifically to see certain artists and broadway performers. I’m just 1 person buying food and Merch and staying at art of animation for a few days but that’s something.

 

[flynnibus]

This... does not make any sense at all. The Asia parks are undoubtedly covered by business interruption insurance. They're not losing huge sums of money with those parks being closed.

Or even if they do... It's not the kind of loss that analysts would beat them up over. It's acute, external factors that impacted everything, not just Disney.

Who manages long term capital spending by a small blip in a single quarter??

Doesn't make sense to me.

 

[flynnibus]

That earnings report is for Fiscal Quarter 1 that ended December 31st, 2019. It won't be able to reflect anything from the Coronavirus or park closures that took place in late January, 2020.

Not in numbers reported.. but it very much would be a factor to mention when talking about forecasts... and we all know how much the market is driven by forecasts..

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Or even if they do... It's not the kind of loss that analysts would beat them up over. It's acute, external factors that impacted everything, not just Disney.

Who manages long term capital spending by a small blip in a single quarter??

Doesn't make sense to me.

Not in numbers reported.. but it very much would be a factor to mention when talking about forecasts... and we all know how much the market is driven by forecasts..

I had forgetten about the Hong Kong disruptions...that’s of far more concern to Disney than viral disruptions.

The political climate in Hong Kong could cause longterm societal shift if it goes bad. The central government had been “hands off” on Kong since the queen’s navy sailed out - 20 years...

But that may not last forever...they are mired in a long recession and the Chinese government is every bit as authoritarian as the Soviet was...they are just quiet and don’t project a doctrine/political objective as their processors did.

Disney should not be involved with them...that will not change anytime soon.

 

[CastAStone]

Who manages long term capital spending by a small blip in a single quarter??

This. I think it’s much more likely that we see expenses cut than projects that will be capitalized against the next 10-25 years anyway. Any capital project inevitably has some money that gets expensed, particularly before shovels hit the dirt, so I could see things in planning being delayed, but something like Reflections or Guardians or even Ratatouille really isn’t going to be generating meaningful Quarterly expenses (I assume based on my experience with GAAP accounting)

 

[TP2000]

Not in numbers reported.. but it very much would be a factor to mention when talking about forecasts... and we all know how much the market is driven by forecasts..

Good point, as I have no doubt that Mr. Iger will be including some carefully crafted statements on future outlook.

I just didn't want anyone to think next week's earnings call could give us any insight into the financial impact of the Coronavirus on Disney's business in Communist China. That impact won't reflect in an earnings call until May.

I had forgetten about the Hong Kong disruptions...that’s of far more concern to Disney than viral disruptions.

Attendance at Hong Kong Disneyland was crashing last October and collapsed last November and never recovered, long before the park was closed indefinitely due to the Coronavirus. So much so that Micechat is saying that all expansion in Hong Kong except for the Castle re-do has been cancelled and was put into mothballs late last year. And that decision to stop all Hong Kong park expansion was made last December, weeks before Coronavirus came into being.

The earnings call next week on Quarter 1 will have to address last fall's collapse in Hong Kong Disneyland attendance, while simultaneously admitting that both Chinese parks have now been closed entirely with no known reopening dates.

Next week's earnings call should be fun to listen in on! I can only imagine the overtime the Corporate Communications team is putting into it right now.

 

[IanDLBZF]

Disneyland was hit hard last summer. I had a chat last week with someone who went into detail about how badly. This would be a double whammy that would also have a knock on effect on the east coast.

And may have further impacts at Paris...

 

[KrazyKat]

#blameshanghai again

 

[Mickey5150]

Sorry boss, I'm too busy trying to figure out how to make money off this whole Coronavirus thing.

Emphasize the Disney "bubble" and convince people they are safe when they are in the World.

 

[WDWBigEd]

Sorry boss, I'm too busy trying to figure out how to make money off this whole Coronavirus thing.

Buckle up, because if a recession starts because of this mess, we're in for a magical 50th!

We need our Disney themed surgical masks. @realBobChapek @TheRealBobIger

 

[IanDLBZF]

#blameshanghai again

Hong Kong too.

 

[Lilofan]

Sorry boss, I'm too busy trying to figure out how to make money off this whole Coronavirus thing.

I'd stockpile on face masks and resell...

 

[HauntedPirate]

I'd stockpile on face masks and resell...

Just add ears and voila!! Easy $20/mask.

 

[No Name]

I’m surprised they didn’t halt all future MCU films after Cars 3 underperformed at the box office. Because that’s essentially what’s happening here.

 

[kpilcher]

hat earnings report is for Fiscal Quarter 1 that ended December 31st, 2019. It won't be able to reflect anything from the Coronavirus or park closures that took place in late January, 2020.
But what next week's earnings report will be able to reflect is the near collapse in attendance at Hong Kong Disneyland

You are 100% correct that the earnings won't reflect the Coronavirus, but you can better believe it will be a top question on the conference call that follows. Disney will have no choice but to give guidance there. Wall St. will not go easy on them if they don't. I would expect some ballpark estimates, similar to how they basically admitted HLDK would be "Negatively Impacted" during the last conference call, but with more detail. We'll see.

 

[larryz]

Raise your hand if you're considering calling in sick Monday morning with "The Corona Virus"...

 

[matt9112]

Totally guessing here, but I would imagine that the Chi-coms are insured for their position and Disney is insured independently for their own position, rather than the insurance sitting within the joint venture and then getting divided up after the fact.

But on paper we dont know and again on paper the ccp could have forced them to do the latter? Or anything for that matter? In reality there is no protections for disney in china.

 

[Princess Leia]

Most flights from the US to China have been cancelled for the next two months. Other countries are following suit. I don't know how many tourists come from outside China to those parks, but they won't be able to travel there until the flights return.

Hong Kong needs all of the help it can get. Shanghai will be fine, but DHK is in dire need of additional unique attractions to draw in visitors.