News Caribbean Beach Expansion

[HauntedPirate]

It's really such a shame the GF Villas are the architectural equivalent of Grand Floridian "Light". Unfortunately the building looks like a cheap knockoff of the original designs, lacking much of the the original details that the original buildings contain. As such, it stands out, and not in a good way. There was no reason they couldn't have fully incorporated the design elements of the original buildings into the DVC building, other than cost. What we have now is just a dumbed down version of the otherwise outstanding design of the GF. It's a shame too, because it appears that they did spend decent money on the interior.

If you ever read the Disney Architecture of Reassurance book from 1990s, or consider Michael Eisner's thoughts about architecture (...a bad movie will just be forgotten about, but a bad building you're stuck with...), or remember when Wing Chao was with Disney, it will sadden you how much things have changed in last 10-15 years at WDW.

Speaking of "Disney Architecture of Reassurance" - One of things I regret about my years at the University of Minnesota back in the early 90's is not taking Karal Ann Marling's class on "The Art of Walt Disney in American Culture". I wonder if she's still around and teaching it...

 

[HauntedPirate]

going to be very interested to see how this plays out if a moderate resort now becomes a DVC location.

is it considered moderate or deluxe because of the specific room you are in or how the resort is overall so to speak?

and will the price point for DVC at a moderate be the same are other deluxe resorts or less?

DVC at a Moderate Resort brings up a whole host of questions. From my view, it really, really muddies the DVC waters. Do "Moderate DVC Resort" points convert 1:1 at "Deluxe DVC Resorts"? And what about the reverse? What about booking windows? Member perks? Per-point pricing?

 

[MisterPenguin]

Themed like Germany?

It will be glorious...

 

[Liberty6]

Work is scheduled to begin in 2017 and be complete in 2019.

David Atwood is the lead on this project. Work for this project began last spring. His most recent project before this was the Toy Story Hotel in Shanghai and has also worked on Kidani Village at AKL and the Golden Oaks Estates at WDW.

 

[Rodan75]

DVC at a Moderate Resort brings up a whole host of questions. From my view, it really, really muddies the DVC waters. Do "Moderate DVC Resort" points convert 1:1 at "Deluxe DVC Resorts"? And what about the reverse? What about booking windows? Member perks? Per-point pricing?

Unless they do a 2-Tier DVC system, I'm assuming they would manage it the way they do today with OKW and SSR, charge $171 per point and the accommodations just cost less per room than they do at the Poly and VGF. So you could get away with buying a 100 point package and be able to get a full week at the moderate DVC.

I do wonder though, would this even warrant that. They could technically build this into its own resort and just shrink CBR and create this new 'deluxe' with completely different theming.

 

[Rodan75]

It will be glorious...

View attachment 185132

In all fairness, it wouldn't be that tall. =-)

 

[RobbinsDad]

It will be glorious...

View attachment 185132

LOL

 

[bpiper]

I think that everyone is missing something. Why would it have to be "part of" the Caribbean beach resort? While it would be constructed on ground that once was part of the Caribbean beach resort property, this ground could be blocked off from the rest of the CBR and be its own Deluxe resort. Basically sub-dividing the resort into separate resorts. It would use the existing CBR entrance, and I am wondering if that large new building on the expansion pad next to the cast entrance might be the new check-in building/food court for CBR. The main entrance for CBR would then become the cast entrance that was spiffed up.

 

[DDLand]

David Atwood is the lead on this project. Work for this project began last spring. His most recent project before this was the Toy Story Hotel in Shanghai and has also worked on Kidani Village at AKL and the Golden Oaks Estates at WDW.

Did a quick LinkedIn search on him and this is what came up on his work experience:
CONFIDENTIAL - Walt Disney World Resort Starting 2015

Thanks for clearing up what "confidential" really means! So it seems like some of the facilities upgrades they've been doing recently are all part of the plan, just like what happened before Wilderness Lodge and Poly.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I think that everyone is missing something. Why would it have to be "part of" the Caribbean beach resort? While it would be constructed on ground that once was part of the Caribbean beach resort property, this ground could be blocked off from the rest of the CBR and be its own Deluxe resort. Basically sub-dividing the resort into separate resorts. It would use the existing CBR entrance, and I am wondering if that large new building on the expansion pad next to the cast entrance might be the new check-in building/food court for CBR. The main entrance for CBR would then become the cast entrance that was spiffed up.

I agree with you on this one. Disney even sub-divided WL into 2 different and independent DVC properties. There is ZERO reason to think this won't be a completely different resort name and declaration IF it is a new DVC resort.

 

[peter11435]

Did a quick LinkedIn search on him and this is what came up on his work experience:
CONFIDENTIAL - Walt Disney World Resort Starting 2015

Thanks for clearing up what "confidential" really means! So it seems like some of the facilities upgrades they've been doing recently are all part of the plan, just like what happened before Wilderness Lodge and Poly.

For the record, I believe he is the project manager handling the construction management side of things. Not the WDI/creative side of things.

 

[danlb_2000]

For the record, I believe he is the project manager handling the construction management side of things. Not the WDI/creative side of things.

From the description of his role at Disney:

"Responsible for developing and managing creative design intent throughout the life of the project while interfacing with internal and external creative and technical consultants. Frontline manager responsible for monitoring budget and ensuring that delivery schedule is met."

 

[MisterPenguin]

In all fairness, it wouldn't be that tall. =-)

Oh, you're into realism. Just for you I corrected the direction of the shadows...

 

[marni1971]

So it seems like some of the facilities upgrades they've been doing recently are all part of the plan, just like what happened before Wilderness Lodge and Poly.

Ive not got all the details but this could be just part of a bigger picture.

 

[GhostHost1000]

DVC at a Moderate Resort brings up a whole host of questions. From my view, it really, really muddies the DVC waters. Do "Moderate DVC Resort" points convert 1:1 at "Deluxe DVC Resorts"? And what about the reverse? What about booking windows? Member perks? Per-point pricing?

My guess is it will be treated just like any deluxe dvc resort, points, costs, etc. even though the resort is considered moderate.

Certainly brings up a whole host of questions. Could this ever happen at value resorts as well? Would DVC ever have different tiers of membership? (I could actually see this because it basically guarantees in some ways occupancy)

 

[GoofGoof]

Since this is a tower are we going to see rumored lounge or restaurant on the top?

There may be some issues with the view being into the backstage areas of WS, but at night it would make for a decent vantage point to watch Illuminations assuming the tower is tall enough.

 

[GoofGoof]

My guess is it will be treated just like any deluxe dvc resort, points, costs, etc. even though the resort is considered moderate.

Certainly brings up a whole host of questions. Could this ever happen at value resorts as well? Would DVC ever have different tiers of membership? (I could actually see this because it basically guarantees in some ways occupancy)

I can't see Disney doing anything less than a "deluxe" resort for DVC unless they truly run out of buyers. The profits are too irresistible to offer it for a discount. They won't charge less per point and if you just make the number of points per night significantly lower than you have less total points to sell. The only way to truly make that work is if you have a massive resort, but even then it still won't be as profitable.

This project doesn't seem to be large enough unless they go 10+ floor tower which would be an epic fail in that location. Maybe this won't even be DVC. They really do need more hotel rooms not less.

 

[deix15x8]

It seems like the problem of a moderate level DVC is a non issue. As many have mentioned the cost of purchasing a point is fairly standardized in price now. This pays for the cost of the building and with a moderate resort the building will cost less which means fewer points per room. Fewer points per room makes the cost per night when using points less than a deluxe resort and everything stays balanced.

The other fee involved is the annual dues. The cost of those are done by calculating the cost to operate the resort and dividing it by the number of points plus some government fees. Some of those costs like maintenance may be lower, but many of the costs wouldn't go down very much by making it a moderate resort. The number of points that gets divided by would be lower though so the annual dues may actually be higher per point than others. Their still paying just as much as anyone staying at any other resort but their buying power for any resort but their home may not be as strong since they can stay longer for less and would be buying for those numbers.

For instance the lowest cost to stay at BLT is 102 points per week (14/16). If CBR were to be 51 points per week (7/8) a BLT owner could get their points to go twice as far at a lower quality resort while a CBR owner would only get half the time by moving up. In the end though how many people actually buy points based on their formula? I purchased 100 points at BLT in 2014 and through manipulation of the use years and banking I stayed at VGC for 10 nights in 2015, converted them for 5 nights at the New Port Bay hotel in DLP in 2016, have 9 nights booked at BLT for 2017 and plan 2 somewhere cheap in 2018. That's a whole lot of usage for just 100 points and regardless of where I owned them at it would have cost the same and had the same power.

The bigger thing in this is that by making lower point options easier to make useful there will be more people who are DVC members. This is where the problem is. The points have the same cost and value for usage, but someone with 10,000 points has the same DVC benefits as someone with 100. The cost of all the extra perks don't go up by the number of points owned (though in theory if used for a longer stay rather than a better room it could cost a bit more for some perks), but by the number of owners. If they do add lower point resorts the bigger question is if we will start to see a tiered DVC membership system similar to how most loyalty programs work. Someone with fewer points may get fewer or lower benefits than those with more. We already have two levels with the direct vs resale owners, maybe they'll split more. If they do though I would expect that based on history anyone that currently owns will be grandfathered into the top tier while a new lower cost fewer perk level is added for maybe 150 points and less and only applied to new purchases.

 

[GoofGoof]

It seems like the problem of a moderate level DVC is a non issue. As many have mentioned the cost of purchasing a point is fairly standardized in price now. This pays for the cost of the building and with a moderate resort the building will cost less which means fewer points per room. Fewer points per room makes the cost per night when using points less than a deluxe resort and everything stays balanced.

The other fee involved is the annual dues. The cost of those are done by calculating the cost to operate the resort and dividing it by the number of points plus some government fees. Some of those costs like maintenance may be lower, but many of the costs wouldn't go down very much by making it a moderate resort. The number of points that gets divided by would be lower though so the annual dues may actually be higher per point than others. Their still paying just as much as anyone staying at any other resort but their buying power for any resort but their home may not be as strong since they can stay longer for less and would be buying for those numbers.

For instance the lowest cost to stay at BLT is 102 points per week (14/16). If CBR were to be 51 points per week (7/8) a BLT owner could get their points to go twice as far at a lower quality resort while a CBR owner would only get half the time by moving up. In the end though how many people actually buy points based on their formula? I purchased 100 points at BLT in 2014 and through manipulation of the use years and banking I stayed at VGC for 10 nights in 2015, converted them for 5 nights at the New Port Bay hotel in DLP in 2016, have 9 nights booked at BLT for 2017 and plan 2 somewhere cheap in 2018. That's a whole lot of usage for just 100 points and regardless of where I owned them at it would have cost the same and had the same power.

The bigger thing in this is that by making lower point options easier to make useful there will be more people who are DVC members. This is where the problem is. The points have the same cost and value for usage, but someone with 10,000 points has the same DVC benefits as someone with 100. The cost of all the extra perks don't go up by the number of points owned (though in theory if used for a longer stay rather than a better room it could cost a bit more for some perks), but by the number of owners. If they do add lower point resorts the bigger question is if we will start to see a tiered DVC membership system similar to how most loyalty programs work. Someone with fewer points may get fewer or lower benefits than those with more. We already have two levels with the direct vs resale owners, maybe they'll split more. If they do though I would expect that based on history anyone that currently owns will be grandfathered into the top tier while a new lower cost fewer perk level is added for maybe 150 points and less and only applied to new purchases.

Good post.

Here's the problem. The costs are not going to be that much lower to build and sell a moderate DVC. The cost of the building itself really isn't going to be all that much lower. They still need to demo the existing buildings and level the ground. They can't make the rooms that much smaller. The common areas could be more basic, but you still need basic amenities and things like elevators and a pool and remember it's only the physical structure that matters the cost to operate is covered by maintenance fees. There is just no way building this as a moderate is going to cut the building cost in half. The other issue is the building itself is only a portion of the costs for DVC. Selling and overhead costs are pretty high as well and you can't really cut that dramatically. Here's a really simplified example:

Let's say the new moderate DVC is about the size of BLT which has 5.7M points so for simplicity call it 6 million points. If you make the points per night half what BLT is then you end up with 3 million points to sell. Let's say they sell the points for $150 each.

• Let's say the deluxe version physical building costs $300M to build and sales and other expense runs at 30% of sales. Selling all 6M points would result in $900M of sales revenue less selling expense of $270M less building cost of $300M for a profit of $330M (this is why DVC is so heavily pushed).
• Let's say the moderate version physical building costs 1/3 less or $200M to build and sales and other expense are still 30% of sales. Selling all 3M points would result in $450M of sales revenue less selling expense of $135M less building costs of $200M for a profit of $115M.

It's unlikely Disney is willing to take 1/3 the profit to create a moderate version of DVC. The other problem is not all of the sales and other expenses are variable. In other words the expense doesn't drop just because the sales revenue does. Sales commissions would, but other fixed costs like DVC kiosks and employee salaries wouldn't drop. This makes the moderate even less favorable.

I think in theory a moderate DVC makes sense for the guest, especially those who want a cheaper way to get in, but I don't see Disney even considering this as an option until they really struggle to sell the current product. Maybe WL will be the breaking point and sales will slip. Poly ended up selling pretty well despite only having Studios and those overpriced bungalow things.

 

[toolsnspools]

Oh, you're into realism. Just for you I corrected the direction of the shadows...

View attachment 185140

Lose the dome and you're there. (Ask Planet Hollywood...)