Captain Marvel 2: "The Marvels" -- Nov 10, 2023 Theatrical Release

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I agree that D+ opens up huge opportunities for Disney to make shows for specific, smaller, audiences but the recent budgets would indicate these shows were NOT being made for niche markets.

You don’t spend $25 million per episode to capture a niche market, you don’t spend $250 million on a movie for a niche market… the budgets seem to indicate that Disney thought they were making movies and shows for mainstream audiences, they are just out of touch with what mainstream audiences actually wants to see.

 

[drizgirl]

So the point was to do a TV series that flopped badly in the Nielsens and didn't get picked up for a second season?

Why? Because what few people who did watch weren't exclusively white? In a truly great and diverse nation of 335 Million that has Billions of people around the world desperate to get in to join in our fun and happiness?

That seems a rather meta way of doing a failed TV show, don't you think?



So, when does that kick in? Later in Fiscal 2024? Because Disney is floundering here.

When do the mega-budget failures of 2022-2023 finally pay off? In calendar 2024? Or calendar 2025, worst case?

Please don't say that Disney is supposed to wait until 2045 when the nation is finally less than 50% white, as if race somehow determines what movies you go see. Because on its current box office trajectory, the Walt Disney Company can't wait that long.

Yet when Disney makes short term outlandish money grabs, we are told they have a fiduciary responsibility to make the most money for stockholders possible in the moment. That sounds exactly the opposite of what the poster says they are doing here.

 

[erasure fan1]

I agree that D+ opens up huge opportunities for Disney to make shows for specific, smaller, audiences but the recent budgets would indicate these shows were NOT being made for niche markets.

You don’t spend $25 million per episode to capture a niche market, you don’t spend $250 million on a movie for a niche market… the budgets seem to indicate that Disney thought they were making movies and shows for mainstream audiences, they are just out of touch with what mainstream audiences actually wants to see.

Ding ding ding, you are correct. That is the elephant in the room and what I've been saying. Niche content is made not with tent pole event budgets and aspirations. I'll go back to the Muppets 2011. People here said no one cared about it, it only did 166mil. But on a budget of $40mil, it made over $50mil, one of the best profits of that year, maybe the best. Plus it won them an Oscar for best song. The two big releases, cars 2 and pirates on stranger tides were both break even at best, but most likely losses based on the budgets.

So if the goal is to expand through niche projects. Great, I'm all for it. But you have to keep the budgets in line with being a niche product then. That's how you expand.

 

[_caleb]

I agree that D+ opens up huge opportunities for Disney to make shows for specific, smaller, audiences but the recent budgets would indicate these shows were NOT being made for niche markets.

You don’t spend $25 million per episode to capture a niche market, you don’t spend $250 million on a movie for a niche market… the budgets seem to indicate that Disney thought they were making movies and shows for mainstream audiences, they are just out of touch with what mainstream audiences actually wants to see.

What is your definition of “niche audience” here? And “mainstream?”

 

[_caleb]

Yet when Disney makes short term outlandish money grabs, we are told they have a fiduciary responsibility to make the most money for stockholders possible in the moment. That sounds exactly the opposite of what the poster says they are doing here.

More subscribers to D+ = more money as they raise prices, sell ads, and add additional revenue-generating features.

 

[_caleb]

Ding ding ding, you are correct. That is the elephant in the room and what I've been saying. Niche content is made not with tent pole event budgets and aspirations. I'll go back to the Muppets 2011. People here said no one cared about it, it only did 166mil. But on a budget of $40mil, it made over $50mil, one of the best profits of that year, maybe the best. Plus it won them an Oscar for best song. The two big releases, cars 2 and pirates on stranger tides were both break even at best, but most likely losses based on the budgets.

I mean, you do if they’re not a niche and they are super important to your new business model and that’s how much you’ve been spending on legacy audiences as they erode away.

The plan all along was to spend like crazy to build their library of content and then raise prices to get to profitability.

So if the goal is to expand through niche projects. Great, I'm all for it. But you have to keep the budgets in line with being a niche product then. That's how you expand.

Yes, this is true. They are! And Iger has said as much.

They are slowing way down on releases (thanks, writers’ strike!) and on spending. They’re selling ads and adding revenue-generating features. Goal is profitability by the end of the year.

 

[erasure fan1]

I mean, you do if they’re not a niche and they are super important to your new business model and that’s how much you’ve been spending on legacy audiences as they erode away.

But like I said, they can still be important to the model, without spending like they are the next avengers team up. They are niche characters, that would have greatly benefited from having time spent in other films. Similar to Falcon, we were introduced to him and his basic backstory in winter soldier. He then had some smaller parts like his awesome cameo in antman. Then became more important in civil war...

The plan all along was to spend like crazy to build their library of content and then raise prices to get to profitability.

In my opinion that's a terrible strategy. If you spend like a drunken sailor and the content doesn't land, that's a problem. Because the ability to jack up prices is predicated on the content being highly demanded. So while I fully understand the loss leader mentality because just about everyone does it. It's the quality that allows them to offset that. Just look at video games, the playstation and Xbox are sold under cost in the hopes to make the money back in spending on content. What's the difference in the two companies? Sony has been able to get software from AAA games to mid and low budget and more niche software that people want to play. Xbox has spent a lot of money. And has that helped their position? Absolutely not. Because you have to be smart about how you are spending said money.

 

[_caleb]

But like I said, they can still be important to the model, without spending like they are the next avengers team up. They are niche characters, that would have greatly benefited from having time spent in other films. Similar to Falcon, we were introduced to him and his basic backstory in winter soldier. He then had some smaller parts like his awesome cameo in antman. Then became more important in civil war...

I hear you, and I agree that the long, slow approach they took w/Sam was good. They've also done this really well with other characters who started out as bit roles and developed/are developing into bigger/major characters in the MCU storyline. I'm not sure Disney has/had the luxury of time for low/slow with regards to building out female, Black, and South Asian connections to the MCU.

In my opinion that's a terrible strategy. If you spend like a drunken sailor and the content doesn't land, that's a problem. Because the ability to jack up prices is predicated on the content being highly demanded. So while I fully understand the loss leader mentality because just about everyone does it. It's the quality that allows them to offset that.

Quality is subjective, and reports are that Ms. Marvel resonated with younger, more diverse audiences in streaming, which is bringing in billions (still not enough to offset costs, of course).

And what's the alternative to spending big on the front-end? If they'd started D+ with a few low-budget Marvel series, people would have dismissed it as "Disney Channel, but Online." And if series like Ms. Marvel didn't do well with a lower budget, people would complain, "Why didn't they give the South Asian actors/stories full support?"

Just look at video games, the playstation and Xbox are sold under cost in the hopes to make the money back in spending on content. What's the difference in the two companies? Sony has been able to get software from AAA games to mid and low budget and more niche software that people want to play. Xbox has spent a lot of money. And has that helped their position? Absolutely not. Because you have to be smart about how you are spending said money.

I think Disney is being much smarter than you might be giving them credit for. I think their data shows just how dire things are with the traditional box office release model, which was accelerated by the pandemic.

As they focus on DtC, I think they're looking at it like this: "As quickly as possible, we need a complete library of content for the audiences we've identified as being key to our success in the streaming space in the near and mid-term. What do we have that would help connect these demographics with the MCU?"

I think everything they've added and all they've spent has been to build the base of their new Direct-to-Consumer model.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

What is your definition of “niche audience” here? And “mainstream?”

Niche - designed for a specific audience. That audience could be kids, teens, adults, men, women, super fans, environmentalists, gear heads, etc.

Mainstream - designed to appeal to everyone.

 

[TP2000]

Did it flop badly? Where are you seeing this?

Yes, it flopped badly on Disney+ in the summer of 2022. It was the lowest rated MCU show on Disney+. Then Disney tried it again on ABC TV this past August as a gimmick to boost buzz for The Marvels before its November release, and Ms. Marvel flopped there too on free network TV.

Ms. Marvel Huge Failure On ABC: Worse Than Inhumans | Cosmic Book News

If Disney and Kevin Feige were hoping for a big boost for The Marvels by airing the Ms. Marvel series on ABC starring Iman Vellani, it backfired.

cosmicbook.news

Did Disney say there wouldn’t be a second season of Ms. Marvel? I haven’t seen that.

No second season of Ms. Marvel was announced in 2022 after it flopped on Disney+, and no second season was announced in 2023 after it flopped a second time for free on ABC.

Similarly, NBC never announced there will not be another season of Hello, Larry.

Race is a factor in what movies people watch, and yes, Disney is investing in future generations with its content. But no waiting is necessary, because younger people who respond to minority characters/stories already exist, and they’re paying money to watch series like Ms. Marvel on Disney+.

That seems to be the classic Bud Lite Alissa Heinerscheid move of "Let's get rid of our existing un-hip customers in favor of hip new customers..." and then the hip new customers don't show up.

Or, for those of us that don't obsess over race because we know humans are far more similar than they are different, the new customers are just like the old customers and simply want high quality products for their entertainment dollars. Oops!

 

[DKampy]

No second season of Ms. Marvel was announced in 2022 after it flopped on Disney+, and no second season was announced in 2023

Just because no 2nd season has been announced does not mean it won’t happen… at one point I had rumors of a 2 nd season…. Rather or not it comes to fruition I have no idea… it does seem they are committed to still using Ms Marvel in the form of Young Avengers however

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

the new customers are just like the old customers and simply want high quality products for their entertainment dollars. Oops!

This seems to be what Disney doesn’t get, if the story is good no one cares what race, gender, etc the actors are... unfortunately Disney seems to have confused “the story determines if something is good or bad“ with “diversity determines is something is good or bad“.

The “old“ audience was everyone, no one was left out, no one was excluded. The “new” audience is a myth, there wasn’t anyone who didn’t already watch the MCU, and Star Wars, and Pixar, and Disney movies in general. Sacrificing the old in search of new is a losing bet because the old was already everyone.

 

[_caleb]

Yes, it flopped badly on Disney+ in the summer of 2022. It was the lowest rated MCU show on Disney+. Then Disney tried it again on ABC TV this past August as a gimmick to boost buzz for The Marvels before its November release, and Ms. Marvel flopped there too on free network TV.

Ms. Marvel Huge Failure On ABC: Worse Than Inhumans | Cosmic Book News

If Disney and Kevin Feige were hoping for a big boost for The Marvels by airing the Ms. Marvel series on ABC starring Iman Vellani, it backfired.

cosmicbook.news

I have nothing against www.comicbook.news as a source, but this illustrates my point about using legacy standards to measure the value of streaming content.

Most Neilson-type metrics for streaming looked at the first episode. But we've seen audiences tend to wait until the entire series is available and then binge a short series like that, so measuring after week 1 isn't the best way to evaluate.

And you're right that Ms. Marvel didn't do great when it was released on ABC and didn't seem to do much to get people to come out to watch The Marvels. But did it get a significant number of key audiences to connect with the MCU? Did people subscribe (or not unsubscribe) from Disney+? That's the question we should be asking the fine reporters from www.comicbook.news.

No second season of Ms. Marvel was announced in 2022 after it flopped on Disney+, and no second season was announced in 2023 after it flopped a second time for free on ABC.

Similarly, NBC never announced there will not be another season of Hello, Larry.

Oh, I thought maybe you'd seen an official announcement.

That seems to be the classic Bud Lite Alissa Heinerscheid move of "Let's get rid of our existing un-hip customers in favor of hip new customers..." and then the hip new customers don't show up.

Maybe!

Or, for those of us that don't obsess over race because we know humans are far more similar than they are different, the new customers are just like the old customers and simply want high quality products for their entertainment dollars. Oops!

I think what you're calling "obsessing over race" is just business and marketing in a time when people have options and voices.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

The first Aquaman made like a billion dollars. The sequel is going to be a giant bomb. Which online group can I blame for this?

 

[Disney Irish]

The first Aquaman made like a billion dollars. The sequel is going to be a giant bomb. Which online group can I blame for this?

James Gunn and David Zaslav.

 

[_caleb]

Niche - designed for a specific audience. That audience could be kids, teens, adults, men, women, super fans, environmentalists, gear heads, etc.

Mainstream - designed to appeal to everyone.

Thanks. It's good to understand how these terms are being used.

When Disney first bought BAMTech (a streaming company for Major League Baseball), they talked about their motivation: that they recognized how the internet had transformed the landscape of their audiences. They were recognizing that rather than being one big, general group of consumers, their audience was really a bunch of "niches."

Increasingly, making movie that tried to appeal to a wide general audience wasn't going to reliably result in the sort of revenues they were used to. Greater choice and interconnection had changed the economics of the business to the point that they needed to re-focus around developing fandoms; going deeper with inclusive-yet-differentiated niches.

Many of us here are/were part of what used to be seen as "mainstream"audiences. Now, most of us are settling into a variety of niches. This means some of Disney's stuff REALLY resonates with us (the Mandalorian, Werewolf By Night, the Rudish Mickey Mouse Shorts, and Behind the Attraction, for me), but other stuff less so because it was created for niches I identify with to a lesser degree.

Their blogger/vlogger/Content Creator network is a great example of how they've leveraged a "trickle out" approach to getting people across a broad variety of niches to care about, talk about, and pay for their products and services.

 

[_caleb]

The first Aquaman made like a billion dollars. The sequel is going to be a giant bomb. Which online group can I blame for this?

All of us! (And you're welcome!)

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

it does seem they are committed to still using Ms Marvel in the form of Young Avengers however

I’m not familiar with the young avengers so I googled it and this is what came back for characters…

Kate Bishop, Kamala Khan, Cassie Lang, America Chavez, Billy and Tommy Maximoff, and Riri Williams.

I can’t help but wonder how many people have any clue who these characters are. If you don’t have D+ you’ve probably never heard of 75% of them, and if you do have D+ you still probably don’t know (or don’t remember) half of them.

D+ has ruined the MCU, the first phases used individual movies to establish the characters and then when they finally assembled it was a major event, now they’ve all been reduced to characters from TV series, or side characters from movies, that very few people know or care about them.

This has disaster written all over it.

MSN

 

[DKampy]

I’m not familiar with the young avengers so I googled it and this is what came back for characters…

Kate Bishop, Kamala Khan, Cassie Lang, America Chavez, Billy and Tommy Maximoff, and Riri Williams.

I can’t help but wonder how many people have any clue who these characters are. If you don’t have D+ you’ve probably never heard of 75% of them, and if you do have D+ you still probably don’t know (or don’t remember) half of them.

D+ has ruined the MCU, the first phases used individual movies to establish the characters and then when they finally assembled it was a major event, now they’ve all been reduced to characters from TV series, or side characters from movies, that very few people know or care about them.

This has disaster written all over it.

MSN

Perhaps… I don’t follow any comics… so I really have no idea on any characters until they appear in the MCU…I just want good films no matter the genre…I can kind of understand what they are trying to do… as the young people who grew up with the MCU grow into adults… Disney is probably trying to figure out a way to hook the next generation

 

[_caleb]

I’m not familiar with the young avengers so I googled it and this is what came back for characters…

Kate Bishop, Kamala Khan, Cassie Lang, America Chavez, Billy and Tommy Maximoff, and Riri Williams.

I can’t help but wonder how many people have any clue who these characters are. If you don’t have D+ you’ve probably never heard of 75% of them, and if you do have D+ you still probably don’t know (or don’t remember) half of them.

D+ has ruined the MCU, the first phases used individual movies to establish the characters and then when they finally assembled it was a major event, now they’ve all been reduced to characters from TV series, or side characters from movies, that very few people know or care about them.

This has disaster written all over it.

MSN

If Disney's going to keep raiding the Marvel pantry for characters and story ideas, they're going to have to get pretty geeky pretty quickly. Most of the ones with well-known/recognized names have already been done or are locked up in licensing deals with other studios.

To fans (like me), the Young Avengers list you mention are super well-known. I'm excited that these characters might be known by more and more people (providing Disney doesn't water them down).

You're right about how the MCU started, but now it's grown into, well, a universe of stories, just like the comics always have been. Some are small scale, intimate, low-stakes affairs while others are interplanetary interdimensional conflicts. It's not just one story for you to try to keep up with, it's a million related stories across genres, interests, styles, and affinities.

And as they've shown with Guardians of the Galaxy, they can do a lot with less-known stories and characters!