Captain Marvel 2: "The Marvels" -- Nov 10, 2023 Theatrical Release

[Tha Realest]

I think those folks had a big part in the film's box office failure. Negative word of mouth was huge for this one. I think it affected how people perceived the trailers, which then generated a wave of negative reactions among people who had not seen the film.

I think the reason they needed to "drum up positive excitement" was that their favorite cable news, political radio, and social media pundits told them the trailers were an indication that the Marvel they loved had been replaced with propaganda or something.

Fair enough. I think they were trying to show that this film was intended to be one of the tentpoles for the MCU (vs. WandaVision or Ms. Marvel, which were.... whatever isn't a tentpole. Just inside the tent, but not holding it up? IDK.

The Marvels bad WOM was reflected in its poor Cinemascore, which gauges those who actually saw the movie. WOM in the movie/marketing sense generally refers to how those who have experienced a product give their personal feedback to others who haven’t yet experienced it.

 

[_caleb]

The Marvels bad WOM was reflected in its poor Cinemascore, which gauges those who actually saw the movie. WOM in the movie/marketing sense generally refers to how those who have experienced a product give their personal feedback to others who haven’t yet experienced it.

Right. And I’m obviously not using WOM in that sense because we’re discussing the trailers, which came out before the film was released.

Instead, I’m referring to word of mouth in relation to people telling other people why the trailers were bad and also indicative that the film was going to be bad.

So there was negative buzz from the beginning. And so many people went into the film with preconceived ideas that were based not on the trailers or on the prequel films/series, but on what they’d heard.

 

[erasure fan1]

Negative word of mouth was huge for this one. I think it affected how people perceived the trailers,

I'd say the negative word of mouth started because of the trailers. That's why the first couple trailers are so important. They give you that snapshot as to what you can expect from the film. Now the problem with the marvels is it wasn't a good enough film to overcome that less than stellar first impression. I know some here have sung its praises. But the overall sentiment has been just a resounding Meh.

Fair enough. I think they were trying to show that this film was intended to be one of the tentpoles for the MCU

Realistically, was that the right choice? This film was never going to be a tentpole of the mcu. Not with two characters from D+ shows that very few people watched. And Captain marvel isn't all the hugely popular either. So shame on Disney if they thought this film was going to be a tentpole. Could the characters eventually be an anchor? Yea, it's possible. But that has to come more naturally.

 

[_caleb]

I'd say the negative word of mouth started because of the trailers. That's why the first couple trailers are so important. They give you that snapshot as to what you can expect from the film. Now the problem with the marvels is it wasn't a good enough film to overcome that less than stellar first impression. I know some here have sung its praises. But the overall sentiment has been just a resounding Meh.

Realistically, was that the right choice? This film was never going to be a tentpole of the mcu. Not with two characters from D+ shows that very few people watched. And Captain marvel isn't all the hugely popular either. So shame on Disney if they thought this film was going to be a tentpole. Could the characters eventually be an anchor? Yea, it's possible. But that has to come more naturally.

To be fair, Captain Marvel made $1.3B at the box office and the character was a pretty big deal in the MCU storyline. It’s not like they were starting from scratch.

I think the tentpole strategy is dead, anyway.

 

[mary2013]

I'd say the negative word of mouth started because of the trailers. That's why the first couple trailers are so important. They give you that snapshot as to what you can expect from the film. Now the problem with the marvels is it wasn't a good enough film to overcome that less than stellar first impression. I know some here have sung its praises. But the overall sentiment has been just a resounding Meh.

Realistically, was that the right choice? This film was never going to be a tentpole of the mcu. Not with two characters from D+ shows that very few people watched. And Captain marvel isn't all the hugely popular either. So shame on Disney if they thought this film was going to be a tentpole. Could the characters eventually be an anchor? Yea, it's possible. But that has to come more naturally.

I'm confused. Very few people watched Wandavision? I thought that was considered a huge success?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I'm confused. Very few people watched Wandavision? I thought that was considered a huge success?

It’s all relative, by streaming standards it did very well, something like 10 million views per episode, compared to 7 billion people on the planet that’s a tiny percent.

 

[spacemt354]

To be fair, Captain Marvel made $1.3B at the box office and the character was a pretty big deal in the MCU storyline. It’s not like they were starting from scratch.

I think the tentpole strategy is dead, anyway.

This is why I don't agree that youtubers or other naysayers were able to convince that many people to not see the film when clearly so many more saw the first one. The MCU was at its peak when Captain Marvel was released. From 2018-2019, 5 out of the 6 MCU films released made $1+ Billion at the box office.

So what do you think changed in the last 4+ years for The Marvels to make $1.1 Billion less than the original? I don't believe the general public is that easily manipulated that they allow others to shape their own opinions. I feel this has been a slow transition of the MCU over the past few years from each entry being "required viewing" to the option of "wait for Disney+"

 

[_caleb]

This is why I don't agree that youtubers or other naysayers were able to convince that many people to not see the film when clearly so many more saw the first one. The MCU was at its peak when Captain Marvel was released. In the span of 2 years, 5 out of the 6 MCU films released made $1+ Billion at the box office.

So what do you think changed in the last 4+ years for The Marvels to make $1.1 Billion less than the original? I don't believe the general public is that easily manipulated that they allow others to shape their own opinions. I feel this has been a slow transition of the MCU over the past few years from each entry being "required viewing" to the option of "wait for Disney+"

I mean, do you not think society has changed in the last few years?

I'd say major events like the pandemic, the effects of American political movements, etc. accelerated what was already a rapid trend toward audience fragmentation, outsized influence of social media, polarized perceptions, ideological-driven worldviews, and tribal isolation.

Basically, with The Marvels, Disney stuck with the tried-and-true formula that earned them billions, but the global landscape has changed such that the formula is no longer effective at the box office.

As soon as a film project is announced, the social discourse has chewed it up as click fodder. And because of Disney's place in American culture and in the industry, it has received a greater degree of scrutiny and pushback than other studios.

But I still maintain that Disney is playing a different game with its DtC strategy and should not be evaluated strictly by typical box office metrics.

 

[erasure fan1]

To be fair, Captain Marvel made $1.3B at the box office and the character was a pretty big deal in the MCU storyline.

That's the point. It did gangbusters, sandwiched between two of the biggest movies, EVER. It was billed as a must see for endgame, but it wasn't. A lot of people thought it was supposed to be a big deal, but really it wasn't. The movie wasn't bad, I enjoyed it. But not once did I think, wow, captain marvel is going to be the future! She wasn't the reason the film did over a billion. It was infinity war and endgame that did that. And that seems to be proven true with the performance of the marvels.

I'm confused. Very few people watched Wandavision? I thought that was considered a huge success?

Wandavision was a success because most seemed to enjoy it. As far as the overall average mcu fan, it wasn't really watched all that much. And even a lot of people I know who watched it, had zero clue photon was even from Wandavision. So don't mistake what I'm saying as the show was bad, because it was one of the better mcu shows.

 

[spacemt354]

I mean, do you not think society has changed in the last few years?

I'd say major events like the pandemic, the effects of American political movements, etc. accelerated what was already a rapid trend toward audience fragmentation, outsized influence of social media, polarized perceptions, ideological-driven worldviews, and tribal isolation.

Basically, with The Marvels, Disney stuck with the tried-and-true formula that earned them billions, but the global landscape has changed such that the formula is no longer effective at the box office.

As soon as a film project is announced, the social discourse has chewed it up as click fodder. And because of Disney's place in American culture and in the industry, it has received a greater degree of scrutiny and pushback than other studios.

But I still maintain that Disney is playing a different game with its DtC strategy and should not be evaluated strictly by typical box office metrics.

Of course its changed, but you're trying to extrapolate a very simple equation into some multivariable socio-political motivation to avoid a 90 minute superhero film.

I really don't think it's that complicated. What has changed in the MCU formula is that they (Disney/Marvel) cannot rest on the laurels that a dedicated fanbase will continue to go see the films just because its an MCU film.

Disney can still be successful with the "tried and true formula" (see Guardians 3), and I anticipate Deadpool 3 will be one of them next year for Disney.

 

[TP2000]

A momentous thing has just happened today, based on box office data from yesterday. Somewhere this afternoon in an American megaplex, The Marvels crossed the $200 Million mark at the global box office.

That means The Marvels lost about $223 Million for Disney, once you back out the $55 Million Lovegift the British taxpayers gave to The Walt Disney Company.

Production $275, Marketing $100, -$55 British Subsidy, $50 Domestic B.O. Take, $47 Overseas B.O. Take = $223 Million Loss

How much would a new night parade and a couple of new Fantasyland C Tickets cost for Magic Kingdom Park?

Box Office, Wednesday, December 19th, 2023

 

[_caleb]

That's the point. It did gangbusters, sandwiched between two of the biggest movies, EVER. It was billed as a must see for endgame, but it wasn't. A lot of people thought it was supposed to be a big deal, but really it wasn't. The movie wasn't bad, I enjoyed it. But not once did I think, wow, captain marvel is going to be the future! She wasn't the reason the film did over a billion. It was infinity war and endgame that did that. And that seems to be proven true with the performance of the marvels.

If you look at the films individually and entirely from the perspective of people in your demographic, it makes sense to me that you'd come to the conclusions you have.

On its own, Captain Marvel was a solid superhero film. It was certainly buoyed by Avenger Fever. But with Disney's approach to the MCU, it's really less about how each individual film performs at the box office and more about broadening the library of content so there's something for everyone. They're creating deep fandom rabbit holes for people to fall down into as they binge content over years and years on Disney+.

So it may not have felt like "the future" to you, but maybe for others (in different demographics) it served as an entry point into the MCU that felt geared toward them?

And before anyone posts, "well The Marvels flopped at the box office!" I just want to acknowledge that yes, it did. But this is not the only metric that matters in this new era of streaming and fostering of connected fandoms.

So many fans can point to the character, storyline, or film that resonated with them and brought them into the fandom. Disney doesn't just want to create more content for those already in, it's wanting to create additional entry points. Lately, they've gone both deeper with existing fans (multiverse, interconnection, easter eggs), and wider with new audiences (diversity in storytellers/characters/actors, experimenting w/different genres, etc.)

Wandavision was a success because most seemed to enjoy it. As far as the overall average mcu fan, it wasn't really watched all that much. And even a lot of people I know who watched it, had zero clue photon was even from Wandavision. So don't mistake what I'm saying as the show was bad, because it was one of the better mcu shows.

Where are you getting your sense of how well WandaVision was received? Disney hasn't exactly been forthcoming with this sort of info, have they?

 

[_caleb]

Of course its changed, but you're trying to extrapolate a very simple equation into some multivariable socio-political motivation to avoid a 90 minute superhero film.

I really don't think it's that complicated. What has changed in the MCU formula is that they (Disney/Marvel) cannot rest on the laurels that a dedicated fanbase will continue to go see the films just because its an MCU film.

Disney can still be successful with the "tried and true formula" (see Guardians 3), and I anticipate Deadpool 3 will be one of them next year for Disney.

Maybe I am over-complicating. But if it's so simple, why is Disney struggling at the box office?

I don't see how Disney has rested on its laurels with Marvel, though. They've pushed boundaries with cosmic storylines, female/minority protagonists, diversified writers/directors. They went pretty deep with the fandom w/the multiverse storyline, experimental with WandaVision, played with horror themes (Multiverse of Madness), spy-thriller (Black Widow, Secret Invasion), and sitcom (WandaVision, She-Hulk. The "What if...?" series was fun and weird and something they never would have done back in MCU phase 2.

All the while, they've continued to serve up "tried-and-true" stories, like Shang-Chi, Black Panther, etc.

To me, Deadpool falls more toward the extreme with its adult humor, more graphic violence, and in-jokes/references. But I'm looking forward to it.

 

[erasure fan1]

So it may not have felt like "the future" to you, but maybe for others (in different demographics) it served as an entry point into the MCU that felt geared toward them?

I get that, I do. I said it with Ms Marvel, the show wasn't made for me, and that was fine. Captain marvel might have tried to be a different entry point, just like ms marvel. I just don't see that as being successful. Captain marvel did well with over a billion. But that didn't spur on any real viewership for ms marvel. And both of those didn't help the marvels. The thing that would have helped the marvels the most, would have been a much better phase 4 and start to phase 5.

Where are you getting your sense of how well WandaVision was received? Disney hasn't exactly been forthcoming with this sort of info, have they?

It really is just what you hear, read, see in the media, around town, social sites... Disney isn't great at giving out the information. But you can get a sense of what the overall reception is in my opinion. As an example, most didn't need any official information to know that Mando and baby yoda were a hit. And a monster hit at that.

 

[spacemt354]

I don't see how Disney has rested on its laurels with Marvel, though.

Having $200-250 Million dollar budgets for films with the expectation of Phase 3 level returns regardless of the product and oversaturation of said products is what I'm referring to by "resting on laurels".

Marvel misfired in how much content people can consume before it becomes a chore rather than a hobby, and the box office results reflect that.

To me, Deadpool falls more toward the extreme with its adult humor, more graphic violence, and in-jokes/references. But I'm looking forward to it.

Deadpool 3 is something fans have been asking for, and the pairing of Jackman and Reynolds is something to be excited for. That will get people into the seats, at least on opening weekend. The quality of the film after will determine the trajectory in the weeks to come.

 

[_caleb]

I get that, I do. I said it with Ms Marvel, the show wasn't made for me, and that was fine. Captain marvel might have tried to be a different entry point, just like ms marvel. I just don't see that as being successful. Captain marvel did well with over a billion. But that didn't spur on any real viewership for ms marvel. And both of those didn't help the marvels. The thing that would have helped the marvels the most, would have been a much better phase 4 and start to phase 5.

It really is just what you hear, read, see in the media, around town, social sites... Disney isn't great at giving out the information. But you can get a sense of what the overall reception is in my opinion. As an example, most didn't need any official information to know that Mando and baby yoda were a hit. And a monster hit at that.

I appreciate the dialog here, so if my replies are coming across as pedantic, I'll stop.

Forbes did a good review of Ms. Marvel's initial performance on D+ that might also provide some insight into The Marvels has fared. Key takeaways were that it didn't do as well as, say, Loki or Moon Knight, but it did particularly well with "Gen Z and Black, Hispanic and Asian households."

I think this was the point of these films.

If we were to see these projects as parts of Disney's attempt to bring younger, more diverse into the MCU fandom, the cost isn't just about how much each film makes at the box office, but rather Disney's investment in it's own future as it pivots to streaming and adapts to a more greatly differentiated base of aging audiences. Is capturing the imagination, interest, and loyalty of the next generation worth a few hundred million?

I think it is to Disney, even if it means temporarily frustrating segments of the legacy segments who have historically been the sources of revenue at the box office.

Oh, and I agree about the Mandalorian. Its cultural impact seems to be pretty huge!

 

[erasure fan1]

I appreciate the dialog here, so if my replies are coming across as pedantic, I'll stop.

No, this is how the forums should work. Back and forth from separate points of view. That's awesome, Unfortunately I find that when someone like myself disagrees with Disney, it ends up devolving into you're just a hater, anti diversity, or have some hidden agenda. And believe it or not, that couldn't be further from the truth.

If we were to see these projects as parts of Disney's attempt to bring younger, more diverse into the MCU fandom, the cost isn't just about how much each film makes at the box office, but rather Disney's investment in it's own future as it pivots to streaming and adapts to a more greatly differentiated base of aging audiences. Is capturing the imagination, interest, and loyalty of the next generation worth a few hundred million?

I would say yes and no. I think the strategy is sound on paper. Where they have gone off the rails, in my opinion, is doing this with tent pole aspirations. If photon and ms marvel show up in a couple movies as minor characters, you can build said characters up. Instead they threw them in into the deep end right off the bat. I'm all for niche content, heck I'm a huge muppet fan. You just need to be smart about how you introduce it into something as gigantic as the mcu.

 

[_caleb]

Having $200-250 Million dollar budgets for films with the expectation of Phase 3 level returns regardless of the product and oversaturation of said products is what I'm referring to by "resting on laurels".

Marvel misfired in how much content people can consume before it becomes a chore rather than a hobby, and the box office results reflect that.

Oh, I see.

I'm not sure they had expectations of Phase 3 level returns in Phase 4. They were building Disney+ and knew they'd be pivoting away from box office.

And oversaturation is one way to look at it (lots of people do). Another way is a variety of properties for different types of fans to connect with. When they launched Disney+, they had very little to put on the platform, and less still that would make it seem like they were on the edge of something modern that really gets fandom.

 

[TP2000]

Forbes did a good review of Ms. Marvel's initial performance on D+ that might also provide some insight into The Marvels has fared. Key takeaways were that it didn't do as well as, say, Loki or Moon Knight, but it did particularly well with "Gen Z and Black, Hispanic and Asian households."

I think this was the point of these films.

So the point was to do a TV series that flopped badly in the Nielsens and didn't get picked up for a second season?

Why? Because what few people who did watch weren't exclusively white? In a truly great and diverse nation of 335 Million that has Billions of people around the world desperate to get in to join in our fun and happiness?

That seems a rather meta way of doing a failed TV show, don't you think?

If we were to see these projects as parts of Disney's attempt to bring younger, more diverse into the MCU fandom, the cost isn't just about how much each film makes at the box office, but rather Disney's investment in it's own future as it pivots to streaming and adapts to a more greatly differentiated base of aging audiences. Is capturing the imagination, interest, and loyalty of the next generation worth a few hundred million?

I think it is to Disney, even if it means temporarily frustrating segments of the legacy segments who have historically been the sources of revenue at the box office.

So, when does that kick in? Later in Fiscal 2024? Because Disney is floundering here.

When do the mega-budget failures of 2022-2023 finally pay off? In calendar 2024? Or calendar 2025, worst case?

Please don't say that Disney is supposed to wait until 2045 when the nation is finally less than 50% white, as if race somehow determines what movies you go see. Because on its current box office trajectory, the Walt Disney Company can't wait that long.

 

[_caleb]

So the point was to do a TV series that flopped badly in the Nielsens and didn't get picked up for a second season?

Did it flop badly? Where are you seeing this? Did Disney say there wouldn’t be a second season of Ms. Marvel? I haven’t seen that.

Why? Because what few people who did watch weren't exclusively white? In a truly great and diverse nation of 335 Million that has Billions of people around the world desperate to get in to join in our fun and happiness?

That seems a rather meta way of doing a failed TV show, don't you think?

Not at all. It is meta. Welcome to streaming!

So, when does that kick in? Later in Fiscal 2024? Because Disney is floundering here.

Good news is, its already kicking in! It’s paying off in Disney+ having more subscribers than any other streaming service! This is important as they work to amass as many subscribers as possible while raising prices, selling ads, and rolling out other revenue generating services.

When do the mega-budget failures of 2022-2023 finally pay off? In calendar 2024? Or calendar 2025, worst case?

Not only is Disney the biggest streaming platform, it’s by far the most successful among younger viewers. And do you know why people are subscribing (and returning) to Disney+? Content!

Please don't say that Disney is supposed to wait until 2045 when the nation is finally less than 50% white, as if race somehow determines what movies you go see. Because on its current box office trajectory, the Walt Disney Company can't wait that long.

Race is a factor in what movies people watch, and yes, Disney is investing in future generations with its content. But no waiting is necessary, because younger people who respond to minority characters/stories already exist, and they’re paying money to watch series like Ms. Marvel on Disney+.