Captain Marvel 2: "The Marvels" -- Nov 10, 2023 Theatrical Release

[Disney Irish]

All forms of entertainment are not equal, as much as Iger loves sports betting. Gambling is not the same as theme parks. Both fight for destination visits.

Again, in business, not the definition of direct competition. Competition yes. Direct no.

Sorry but this is an overly simplistic view of business. But that is not the reality in practice.

If the consumer goes and spends their dollar on x instead of y, it would be said that x and y are directly competing for that same dollar no matter what x and y are, even if they aren't the same types of product.

So while all forms of entertainment might not be equal, the money spent is and so is the attention given. So while a video game is not the same as a movie, they are directly competing for the same money and attention.

 

[Disney Irish]

Wrong again.

Content.
Entertainment is the service.

Still supply and demand. The demand(consumers) don't want the current supply(content) enough to subscribe or remain subscribing.
So Disney either slims content(they have done this.) And offers incentives(discounts)

I will give you the content is the supply. But not sure where you get the consumer don't want the content enough to subscribe or remain subscribed. D+ and Hulu both gained subs and retained subs domestically this past quarter.

Also that still doesn't mean incentives mean things aren't going well.

 

[celluloid]

Sorry but this is an overly simplistic view of business. But that is not the reality in practice.

If the consumer goes and spends their dollar on x instead of y, it would be said that x and y are directly competing for that same dollar no matter what x and y are, even if they aren't the same types of product.

So while all forms of entertainment might not be equal, the money spent is and so is the attention given. So while a video game is not the same as a movie, they are directly competing for the same money and attention.

Now you are moving into the consumer's dollar is always limited between two more competitors. That is a specific sect. That is actually separate from supply and demand and competition.
Speaking of over simplistic view: What you construct is someone with one dollar and two buckets.

My sister has enough money for her entire family to have both Disney annual passes for both Universal and Disney

There is no obligation for them to get the WDW AP because they feel choose not to. Both companies are direct comparing in this case but the dollar is not limited.

That is the issue with the video game attention argument being direct.
The Xbox game pass is not going to sacrifice some video gaming to get Disney Plus for an episode or two of something they like for an hour every week.
Both entertainment. Different medium.
Not direct competition.

In your instance, if the supply is ready but there are people and their dollars out there who don't see the value in it. You have an abundance of supply..and low demand.

 

[Disney Irish]

Now you are moving into the consumer's dollar is always limited between two more competitors. That is a specific sect. That is actually separate from supply and demand and competition.
Speaking of over simplistic view: What you construct is someone with one dollar and two buckets.

My sister has enough money for her entire family to have both Disney annual passes for both Universal and Disney

There is no obligation for them to get the WDW AP because they feel choose not to. Both companies are direct comparing in this case but the dollar is not limited.

That is the issue with the video game attention argument being direct.
The Xbox game pass is not going to sacrifice some video gaming to get Disney Plus for an episode or two of something they like for an hour every week.
Both entertainment. Different medium.
Not direct competition.

In your instance, if the supply is ready but there are people and their dollars out there who don't see the value in it. You have an abundance of supply..and low demand.

This is where you keep missing the attention piece, which is what is actually being talked about.

There is no unlimited consumer attention.

 

[celluloid]

Also that still doesn't mean incentives mean things aren't going well.

Yes it does. The ROI is not based in subscribers or number of TV shows in a service. It is cost of production to create the content(supply) vs the income, and the demand is not there to cover that cost of production.
Don't see that changing by next year after strikes delayed so much and a season 3 of Moon knight at the end of next year and other coming content is not likely to make the jump that Disney Plus and Hulu have them in the hole that they are in.

But hey, you are optimistic if people see it according to plan.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes it does. The ROI is not based in subscribers or number of TV shows in a service. It is cost of production to create the content(supply) vs the income, and the demand is not there to cover that cost of production.
Don't see that changing by next year after strikes delayed so much and a season 3 of Moon knight at the end of next year and other coming content is not likely to make the jump that Disney Plus and Hulu have them in the hole that they are in.

But hey, you are optimistic if people see it according to plan.

Except you miss the part where ad revenue is generated by those same subs that come in under those same incentives. Plus the incentives aren't forever, they are for a limited time. One can assume that some will stay even after the incentive period.

So new subs (even if at a discounted price) + new ad revenue generation.

 

[celluloid]

Except you miss the part where ad revenue is generated by those same subs that come in under those same incentives. Plus the incentives aren't forever, they are for a limited time. One can assume that some will stay even after the incentive period.

So new subs (even if at a discounted price) + new ad revenue generation.

I see your mistake. You think ad revenue will still occur if it is not selected and streamed? Advertising does not like that deal. Subscriber number is not relevant to the ads. The content needs the viewership.

Number of subscribers is not the same as profitable. ROI is ROI and the gap seems too far to be realisticly profitable by their original goal for a lot of people. It's a fair take.

 

[Tha Realest]

(Shifting to ad revenue model makes it less likely little watched series like Ms Marvel is renewed)

 

[Disney Irish]

I see your mistake. You think ad revenue will still occur if it is not selected and streamed? Advertising does not like that deal. Subscriber number is not relevant to the ads. The content needs the viewership.

Number of subscribers is not the same as profitable. ROI is ROI and the gap seems too far to be realisticly profitable by their original goal for a lot of people. It's a fair take.

One assumes that if someone subs that they will be consuming content, otherwise why sub. So whether that is episodes of Mando, episodes of Moon Knight, a classic Disney movie, new Marvel movie, or whatever, an ad will still be played.

Plus ad buys aren't on a per view basis, its done by either direct buys for a show/movie or a programmatic buy which is an automated buy across the platform based on targeted parameters. So that money is coming in whether there is a view or not, especially the programmatic buys. Hulu has had this model for years and its very successful. And with Hulu being incorporated into D+ next month, all that ad money flows into D+.

 

[Disney Irish]

(Shifting to ad revenue model makes it less likely little watched series like Ms Marvel is renewed)

This is true, just like linear, an ad driven model will lead to cancellation of less watched shows. Its unfortunately the nature of business.

 

[celluloid]

Plus ad buys aren't on a per view basis, its done by either direct buys for a show/movie or a programmatic buy which is an automated buy across the platform based on targeted parameters. So that money is coming in whether there is a view or not, especially the programmatic buys. Hulu has had this model for years and its very successful. And with Hulu being incorporated into D+ next month, all that ad money flows into D+.

Psssst...ratings data.

If you bring up Hulu to help...yikes.

Yikes. Ha. That comes with a debt and has trouble getting people in at a buck a month.

 

[Disney Irish]

Psssst...ratings data.

Pssst, this why Disney started cancelling certain underperforming shows. They know, its not a secret.

Also look at the most watched movies on streaming per year, many Disney movies on repeat.

 

[celluloid]

Pssst, this why Disney started cancelling certain underperforming shows. They know, its not a secret.

Tell that to the writers, cast and crews that were in strike solidarity. It totally has been.
Are you talking about an industry you are this unaware of?

Edit. Checked box office thread. Rhetorical question.

 

[Disney Irish]

Tell that to the writers, cast and crews that were in strike solidarity. It totally has been.
Are you talking about an industry you are this unaware of?

It sucks when a show get cancelled, its no secret that shows get cancelled due to underperforming. Its a business, and as much as I wish certain shows would continue, if its underperforming it'll be cancelled, same as on linear TV. So yeah this ain't some big secret in the industry.

The strike wasn't to prevent cancellations of underperforming shows, it was to get a piece of the pie. And that piece of pie is tied to performance metrics, ie viewership. Again same as linear TV.

 

[celluloid]

The strike wasn't to prevent cancellations of underperforming shows, it was to get a piece of the pie. And that piece of pie is tied to performance metrics, ie viewership. Again same as linear TV.

You are jumping all over but this is why ads won't save all of Disney plus's gap. The strike was in large part to end the secret. Hilariously out of touch that you said the metrics were not a secret.
The data will have the writers aware and more transparency to advertisers, who are not obligated to resign deals. Now the writers get to see it similarly, yet more frequent data of what linear TV has done but studios for to keep under lock and key.

You need higher viewed content to sell higher values ad space.
Subscribers are merely potential. Not viewership. The data shows the gap.

So now we are at the realistic issue. Disney has spent billions upon billions to put themselves in the same or worse unreliability of TV, but with less revenue.l for six episodes or so every other year that are not written to have ads.

 

[Disney Irish]

You are jumping all over but this is why ads won't save all of Disney plus's gap. The strike was in large part to end the secret. Hilariously out of touch that you said the metrics were not a secret.
The data will have the writers aware and more transparency to advertisers, who are not obligated to resign deals. Now the writers get to see it similarly, yet more frequent data of what linear TV has done but studios for to keep under lock and key.

You need better rated content to sell higher ad space.
Subscribers are merely potential. Not viewership. The data shows the gap.

So now we are at the realistic issue. Disney has spent billions upon billions to put themselves in the same or worse unreliability of TV, but with less revenue.l for six episodes or so every other year that are not written to have ads.

Funny as I thought that Disney over the summer got $9B in upfront Ad sales (matching 2022 levels) for sports and streaming.

Disney Sports And Streaming Gains Help Company’s Upfront Sales Return To Last Year’s Revenue And Volume Levels

Disney has wrapped up its 2023-24 upfront sales process, reporting gains in sports and streaming and a return to 2022 revenue and volume levels.

deadline.com

So yeah they seem to be doing something right if advertisers are playing them ahead of time for ads that haven't even been viewed yet.

 

[celluloid]

Funny as I thought that Disney over the summer got $9B in upfront Ad sales (matching 2022 levels) for sports and streaming.

Disney Sports And Streaming Gains Help Company’s Upfront Sales Return To Last Year’s Revenue And Volume Levels

Disney has wrapped up its 2023-24 upfront sales process, reporting gains in sports and streaming and a return to 2022 revenue and volume levels.

deadline.com

So yeah they seem to be doing something right if advertisers are playing them ahead of time for ads that haven't even been viewed yet.

You are optimistic, I will give you that.

 

[_caleb]

New medium(internet in demand) to get the same thing. Films and television at home.

We've had "films and television at home" for years. Direct to Consumer really is historically unprecedented. People simply don't consume entertainment the ways they used to. Streamers are having to figure out new revenue models, acquisition/retention strategies, data analytics, technology, etc.

That is not literally competing. Literally competing would be when they are producing video games. They are competing theatrical box office and for home viewers.

I mean literally competing for audience attention. Do you know how many hours people spend watching (not playing) video games online? Disney (rightly) understands that box office and linear are not the future. They're putting so little emphasis on box office and linear that I'm not sure they are, in fact, competing there.

Let's revisit later near fiscal 2024 and see how this is going then.

I'm sure we will!

The thing is, right. now, it is not growing according to plan.

How have they deviated from the plan?

 

[celluloid]

How have they deviated from the plan?

Never said Disney did.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Oh yea, its all Chapek's fault, I keep forgetting that.

In just the few months Chapek tried to lead the company, he broke things so badly that it will take Iger YEARS to fix it - Got it.

That's a gross distortion of what's been happening. But not unexpected from you.