Captain America 4

WoundedDreamer

Well-Known Member
Exactly, it’s why I hate when people use the adjusted numbers. As it always comes across as trying to cut down a movie that earned fairly well relatively just because another movie appeared to earn more because of inflation.

It is entirely reasonable to argue that tastes have shifted and the way we consume media has evolved. Theaters are clearly losing their cultural clout. Individuals may visit once or twice a year for a blockbuster tentpole (like Barbie, Deadpool 3, Inside Out 2) instead of more frequent monthly visits. That shift in theater going behavior has made it more difficult to ensure box office success. It is also reasonable to argue that some of the decline in Disney's offerings is directly attributable to this shift in consumer behavior and preferences.

With that said, adjusting for inflation to compare movies is absolutely a necessary tool. While in some sense you're right that success in Hollywood is relative to what else is being released (market share consideration), that is not the complete picture. When Apple began to retire the iPod business it was the best selling music player platform. Even though this sounds like a great thing, Apple would make the decision to wind down this beloved product. Apple realized that the future of the music business was not in the shrinking standalone music player market. Market share vs. competitors is not the only consideration.

The Walt Disney Company and its shareholders have many different ways they can invest their money. Making an investment in a new Marvel film might result in the number one grossing film for a weekend or two, but it still might not make sense to make the film. One of the tools to judge the real financial impact of a film property is inflation adjusted grosses. Why? Because inflation adjusted numbers allow us to see broad trends over time. Yes, the market might be contracting. Still, investors and Disney need to know in real terms how the money they are investing is being used. What does $X million invested in film production gross a studio today? Are the trends getting better or worse? Those longterm trends are just as important as current box office market share that can be analyzed with unadjusted numbers.

Likewise, production costs also need to be inflation adjusted. With Captain America 4, Marvel Studios has somehow made a film with a smaller inflation-adjusted production budget than the first Captain America film. Assuming the leaked number is accurate, this is a legitimately impressive feat. This accomplishment would be completely obscured if we did not adjust for inflation. Without inflation adjustment we could be sitting here and shaking our fist at Disney for their ballooning production costs instead of patting them on the back for efficiency.

If Captain America 4 outgrosses the original Captain America I fully expect press releases and the trades to issue triumphant messages. Something like, "in Mackie's big screen debut as the 'star spangled man with a plan' the film outgrossed the original Captain America from 2011." If that does occur, inflation adjustment will provide a clearer picture of the relative financial success of both films. Not in terms of total Hollywood market share in a given year, but in terms of actual money recouped at the box office from the investment.

Unfortunately for Disney, Marvel will remain in the shadow of the 2010s. The big drivers of Marvel's box office slump including a shift to streaming, spottier quality, the retirement of beloved characters, and superhero fatigue are too big to ignore. I'm happy to congratulate them on a fine opening weekend for CA 4, but inflation adjustment makes it clear just how much weaker Marvel is in 2025 than in 2018. Without inflation-adjusted numbers there would literally be no way to track performance overtime except market share of box office receipts.

Still, there's an argument that this Captain America film doesn't matter. Both CA 4 and the Thunderbolts represent the final films to emerge from a turbulent time of overproduction. If they can both do fine and not humiliate Disney, then Marvel's grand relaunch plan can gain traction. It's Fantastic Four where Marvel's future is really on the line. If they could get a $1 Billion gross for that film it would be fantastic. Overall, I think CA 4 has escaped the total humiliation zone. Partially, that's because Marvel has been humiliated so much that a gross like this actually pretty good.

Anyway, that's my two cents on all of this.
Cheers!
 

Agent H

Well-Known Member
It is entirely reasonable to argue that tastes have shifted and the way we consume media has evolved. Theaters are clearly losing their cultural clout. Individuals may visit once or twice a year for a blockbuster tentpole (like Barbie, Deadpool 3, Inside Out 2) instead of more frequent monthly visits. That shift in theater going behavior has made it more difficult to ensure box office success. It is also reasonable to argue that some of the decline in Disney's offerings is directly attributable to this shift in consumer behavior and preferences.

With that said, adjusting for inflation to compare movies is absolutely a necessary tool. While in some sense you're right that success in Hollywood is relative to what else is being released (market share consideration), that is not the complete picture. When Apple began to retire the iPod business it was the best selling music player platform. Even though this sounds like a great thing, Apple would make the decision to wind down this beloved product. Apple realized that the future of the music business was not in the shrinking standalone music player market. Market share vs. competitors is not the only consideration.

The Walt Disney Company and its shareholders have many different ways they can invest their money. Making an investment in a new Marvel film might result in the number one grossing film for a weekend or two, but it still might not make sense to make the film. One of the tools to judge the real financial impact of a film property is inflation adjusted grosses. Why? Because inflation adjusted numbers allow us to see broad trends over time. Yes, the market might be contracting. Still, investors and Disney need to know in real terms how the money they are investing is being used. What does $X million invested in film production gross a studio today? Are the trends getting better or worse? Those longterm trends are just as important as current box office market share that can be analyzed with unadjusted numbers.

Likewise, production costs also need to be inflation adjusted. With Captain America 4, Marvel Studios has somehow made a film with a smaller inflation-adjusted production budget than the first Captain America film. Assuming the leaked number is accurate, this is a legitimately impressive feat. This accomplishment would be completely obscured if we did not adjust for inflation. Without inflation adjustment we could be sitting here and shaking our fist at Disney for their ballooning production costs instead of patting them on the back for efficiency.

If Captain America 4 outgrosses the original Captain America I fully expect press releases and the trades to issue triumphant messages. Something like, "in Mackie's big screen debut as the 'star spangled man with a plan' the film outgrossed the original Captain America from 2011." If that does occur, inflation adjustment will provide a clearer picture of the relative financial success of both films. Not in terms of total Hollywood market share in a given year, but in terms of actual money recouped at the box office from the investment.

Unfortunately for Disney, Marvel will remain in the shadow of the 2010s. The big drivers of Marvel's box office slump including a shift to streaming, spottier quality, the retirement of beloved characters, and superhero fatigue are too big to ignore. I'm happy to congratulate them on a fine opening weekend for CA 4, but inflation adjustment makes it clear just how much weaker Marvel is in 2025 than in 2018. Without inflation-adjusted numbers there would literally be no way to track performance overtime except market share of box office receipts.

Still, there's an argument that this Captain America film doesn't matter. Both CA 4 and the Thunderbolts represent the final films to emerge from a turbulent time of overproduction. If they can both do fine and not humiliate Disney, then Marvel's grand relaunch plan can gain traction. It's Fantastic Four where Marvel's future is really on the line. If they could get a $1 Billion gross for that film it would be fantastic. Overall, I think CA 4 has escaped the total humiliation zone. Partially, that's because Marvel has been humiliated so much that a gross like this actually pretty good.

Anyway, that's my two cents on all of this.
Cheers!
And that’s what Disney+ is for.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
It is entirely reasonable to argue that tastes have shifted and the way we consume media has evolved. Theaters are clearly losing their cultural clout. Individuals may visit once or twice a year for a blockbuster tentpole (like Barbie, Deadpool 3, Inside Out 2) instead of more frequent monthly visits. That shift in theater going behavior has made it more difficult to ensure box office success. It is also reasonable to argue that some of the decline in Disney's offerings is directly attributable to this shift in consumer behavior and preferences.

With that said, adjusting for inflation to compare movies is absolutely a necessary tool. While in some sense you're right that success in Hollywood is relative to what else is being released (market share consideration), that is not the complete picture. When Apple began to retire the iPod business it was the best selling music player platform. Even though this sounds like a great thing, Apple would make the decision to wind down this beloved product. Apple realized that the future of the music business was not in the shrinking standalone music player market. Market share vs. competitors is not the only consideration.

The Walt Disney Company and its shareholders have many different ways they can invest their money. Making an investment in a new Marvel film might result in the number one grossing film for a weekend or two, but it still might not make sense to make the film. One of the tools to judge the real financial impact of a film property is inflation adjusted grosses. Why? Because inflation adjusted numbers allow us to see broad trends over time. Yes, the market might be contracting. Still, investors and Disney need to know in real terms how the money they are investing is being used. What does $X million invested in film production gross a studio today? Are the trends getting better or worse? Those longterm trends are just as important as current box office market share that can be analyzed with unadjusted numbers.

Likewise, production costs also need to be inflation adjusted. With Captain America 4, Marvel Studios has somehow made a film with a smaller inflation-adjusted production budget than the first Captain America film. Assuming the leaked number is accurate, this is a legitimately impressive feat. This accomplishment would be completely obscured if we did not adjust for inflation. Without inflation adjustment we could be sitting here and shaking our fist at Disney for their ballooning production costs instead of patting them on the back for efficiency.

If Captain America 4 outgrosses the original Captain America I fully expect press releases and the trades to issue triumphant messages. Something like, "in Mackie's big screen debut as the 'star spangled man with a plan' the film outgrossed the original Captain America from 2011." If that does occur, inflation adjustment will provide a clearer picture of the relative financial success of both films. Not in terms of total Hollywood market share in a given year, but in terms of actual money recouped at the box office from the investment.

Unfortunately for Disney, Marvel will remain in the shadow of the 2010s. The big drivers of Marvel's box office slump including a shift to streaming, spottier quality, the retirement of beloved characters, and superhero fatigue are too big to ignore. I'm happy to congratulate them on a fine opening weekend for CA 4, but inflation adjustment makes it clear just how much weaker Marvel is in 2025 than in 2018. Without inflation-adjusted numbers there would literally be no way to track performance overtime except market share of box office receipts.

Still, there's an argument that this Captain America film doesn't matter. Both CA 4 and the Thunderbolts represent the final films to emerge from a turbulent time of overproduction. If they can both do fine and not humiliate Disney, then Marvel's grand relaunch plan can gain traction. It's Fantastic Four where Marvel's future is really on the line. If they could get a $1 Billion gross for that film it would be fantastic. Overall, I think CA 4 has escaped the total humiliation zone. Partially, that's because Marvel has been humiliated so much that a gross like this actually pretty good.

Anyway, that's my two cents on all of this.
Cheers!
I appreciate the response overall. However as we've seen and discussed in this thread its not a straight apples-to-apples comparison when using inflation adjusted numbers, they have to be put into context. Unfortunately the way they are used here in this forum is to try to simply say X is better than Y because the adjusted numbers show that X earned more because of inflation where there is WAY more context to that number. As you pointed out, and has been said here by myself and others, the market changes, tickets sold change, many others things change over time. Movie Y earned just as much as movie X in unadjusted numbers on less tickets sold, so by that measure movie Y did better overall. This is why the use of the adjusted numbers are just silly for our purposes, its just used to bash one studios movies because they didn't perform in todays market as another movie did in a completely different landscape and time.

Also studio execs I'm sure don't look at inflation adjusted numbers this closely as they only care about the market today, not what occurred 5, 10, 15, or 20 years ago. So they go after the trends of today, and an inflation adjusted report showing Gone with the Wind earned $18B in 1939 in 2025 dollars doesn't help with that.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Whether or not this film turns a profit is not fully knowable to us (though not looking good). What has to be more worrisome - and the tepid box office bears this out - is the general, growing malaise the viewing public seems to have towards these films. Guardians was great, though that franchise seems dead for the time being. Deadpool was great too, though that felt more like a swan song to the 20th Century Fox era than a film fully folded into the MCU.

Whether or not the full production budget for this film realy was $180M or not we’ll never know. We also will never know how much reshot filming and tinkering they did. But there’s enough credible evidence to suggest it was substantial. And yet, all that work and extra effort landed them with a B- Cinemascore and a possible break even point.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Tickets near me are $11.
I almost never go to a movie unless it's the Tuesday/Wednesday deals
If I weren't on a subscription program (I generally pay as little as $2-$3 a movie because of how much I see in a month), I could go to matinees in my market for $9 or $10 at first-run theaters.

I had no idea we had so many cheapskates afternoon matinee fans of financial discernment amongst us! My grandmother on my mother's side was Scottish, and she would be proud of this community. That woman could sew a button back on your shirt with the thread she saved from a trussed chicken she got on sale at the market two months ago! 🤣

Heck, I could apparently see a movie at the Megaplex in St. George, Utah for $6 today, if I wanted to.

I just checked. I'm assuming you're talking about the Pineview Megaplex, which apparently has a showing on Thursday at 12:35pm of Shrek 2 (from 2004) for only $6 per seat?

I get it, matinee movies of 20 year old movies can offer really cheap seats. But I'm not sure that's a helpful analogy here discussing Captain America 4 which was released two weeks ago with a production budget of $180 Million in 2024 dollars.

I sssume you went at night…. I don’t think I have ever seen a matinee price at 20.00..,, even at your most luxurious theater…

Well, yes. We went to see Barbie in the evening. After a fabulous dinner at a family fave seafood place in Del Mar, if my increasingly hazy memory serves correctly. It wasn't a matinee thing, that's for sure.

It was at a theater chain called Cinepolis, a popular luxury theater chain in Orange and San Diego counties. All reserved seats, leather powered recliners, waitress service to your seat with light meals, swanky desserts, champagne and wine and cocktails.

It's the only way to fly!

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The Barbie family movie night was my treat, because the whole thing was my idea once the neighbor kids showed me the trailer on their phone. It was a very fun evening, and Jack Warner got a healthy profit from me once the Amex bill was paid off.

Although theaters around me don’t even charge 20 for the ultra screen at night…. And I am in the Milwaukee market…. Not exactly small town Maine

Aw, you just won me over. I still find myself occasionally singing/thinking at random times "Shamiel, Shmazel, Hotz n' Bev Incorporated! We're gonna do it!" as a tribute to Milwaukee's favorite gals, Laverne and Shirley.

Sure you got to get out of that summertime heat.

After living all up and down the East Coast with their brutal weather, plus a mandatory career stint in greater Houston, I am still such a weather wimp that I would escape Villa Park, Orange County for the milder climes of La Jolla from July through September. And I still do that for at least that same timeframe from southwest Utah.

If I wasn't now so successful at being the Supreme Judge, complete with Uncle Sam beard and top hat and very official clipboard, for the Independence Day Decorated Bike & ATV Parade in my neighborhood, I would be able to escape here for La Jolla by the third week in June. Alas, I now have a civic duty to perform on July 4th, but I'm okay with that.

The kids need me. My country needs me. At least until July 5th or 6th. 🇺🇸
 
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DKampy

Well-Known Member
I just checked. I'm assuming you're talking about the Pineview Megaplex, which apparently has a showing on Thursday at 12:35pm of Shrek 2 (from 2004) for only $6 per seat?
Most movie theater chains have discount Tuesday prices… my local chain has $6.00 all day Tuesday no matter the time or theater of any first run movie…you must have noticed the increased business on Tuesdays verse other weekdays in your box office analysis


I get it, matinee movies of 20 year old movies can offer really cheap seats. But I'm not sure that's a helpful analogy here discussing Captain America 4 which was released two weeks ago with a production budget of $180 Million in 2024 dollars.
I just saw Captain America for that matinee price I mentioned
Well, yes. We went to see Barbie in the evening. After a fabulous dinner at a family fave seafood place in Del Mar, if my increasingly hazy memory serves correctly. It wasn't a matinee

It was at a theater chain called Cinepolis, a popular luxury theater chain in Orange and San Diego counties. All reserved seats, leather powered recliners, waitress service to your seat with light meals, swanky desserts, champagne and wine and cocktails.

It's the only way to fly!
Most theaters have reserved reclining leather seats…at least all the movie theaters around me does

Our local chain also has a subset of theaters called Marcus Movie Tavern with full service lounge and in theater dining which I believe is a little more but not by much… I believe it is 11.50 matinee and 15.00 in the evening
 

WoundedDreamer

Well-Known Member
Whether or not this film turns a profit is not fully knowable to us (though not looking good). What has to be more worrisome - and the tepid box office bears this out - is the general, growing malaise the viewing public seems to have towards these films. Guardians was great, though that franchise seems dead for the time being. Deadpool was great too, though that felt more like a swan song to the 20th Century Fox era than a film fully folded into the MCU.

Whether or not the full production budget for this film realy was $180M or not we’ll never know. We also will never know how much reshot filming and tinkering they did. But there’s enough credible evidence to suggest it was substantial. And yet, all that work and extra effort landed them with a B- Cinemascore and a possible break even point.
You're absolutely right about Phase 5 of the MCU being largely... Low excitement. Deadpool 3 was a huge success, but as you say they can only play the Deadpool card once. I got the distinct sense there is finality to that project. Same with GotG. Of course, we could have said the same thing about RDJ.

Being an MCU actor seems like it is both grueling and addictive. There's a lot of a physicality involved and some actors don't like being typecast. So it's not a cakewalk, but it's also addictive to be beloved and constantly leading these billion dollar films. Some actors can walk away while others can't. The Russo Brothers were in a similar boat. Their independent projects have not caught fire like their MCU projects did (to be fair, almost nothing could compare), so they are back to the nest. They're back in the limelight.

Still, I'm feeling more upbeat about the MCU than I have since 2019. Don't get me wrong, there is high risk of failure. Even with that caveat, I can't help but feel there is also a chance at success. I've largely written off the Thunderbolts. I could be wrong, but I think that looks like a dud. After that, I think Marvel's movies look good. They have Holland's Spider Man, Hemsworth's Thor, the Wakanda team, Shang-Chi, and potentially the Fantastic Four. Those are all solid franchises. Other characters from phase 4/5 can appear as needed in crossovers. RDJ should do a good job in the Avengers movies, so those films seem to be on semi-firm ground. I'm also intrigued by potential of the new X-Men films.

I have been dour about Marvel for ~5 years. My dourness has been pretty accurate. This lineup actually gives me some hope. Fantastic Four has to do well. This is a test of their ability to launch a new franchise. If they screw this up it will make me worried there is something systemically awry at Marvel. The question would be whether it is supply side issue (aka Marvel can't make good films anymore) or a demand side issue (nobody wants Marvel films anymore).

This Captain America 4 and the Thunderbolts should be the last aftershocks of the great Marvel overproduction crisis of the early 2020s. If quality doesn't rebound then my dourness is back. For the time being, I will stick with my tentative optimism.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I’m not sure why there is so much debate on average ticket prices domestically. It’s an easily pulled statistic.

As for why. Well another reason - a non-insignificant proportion of the Domestic market is also Canada. We have national theater chains (with leather recliners) that will sell Tuesday tickers for 5$… or 3.49$ USD.

Blame Canada.
 

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