Captain America 4

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is a bit surprising to me also, I really thought this would pull in $500-600 million worldwide, its opening weekend had it on pace for about $500-550 million but it seems to be sputtering out.

I think it’ll ultimately end in the $400-450 million range but that’s gotta be a little disappointing for Disney, not a bad result, not a great one either though, should be around break even territory at least.

This one was DOA…for multiple reasons

Maybe we find out exactly what the hit was in the future? But no way to look at it as anything other than a failure

 

[networkpro]

Casting had some very glaring issues such as the head of security (Shirra Haas), but nothing as bad as the poor directing and wooden acting. Sad, as the first third's performance by Giancarlo Esposito and the ever awesome hatman were wonderful. Reshoots were the best they could to attempting to salvage this turkey.

 

[Screamface]

I still don't understand how they're making films now where it's basically, "It's ok, if you're bored and can't find something to watch on Disney+, maybe check it out."

 

[Disney Irish]

I still don't understand how they're making films now where it's basically, "It's ok, if you're bored and can't find something to watch on Disney+, maybe check it out."

Was that their intent, or is that just the audiences reaction to it? This is obviously the latter more than the former, so if they end up catching it on D+ later I'm sure Disney is ok with that.

 

[BrianLo]

This is a bit surprising to me also, I really thought this would pull in $500-600 million worldwide, its opening weekend had it on pace for about $500-550 million but it seems to be sputtering out.

I just want to log that it really never looked that high following the debut weekend. I’m not sure what everyone else was thinking throwing those numbers around. The comp was always Quantumania and it was pretty locked with the CinemaScore. No second weekend miracle internationally materialized.

Cap is continuing to track like Quantumania internationally. Pulled from Nancy’s articles from both second weekends.

Looks to me increasingly like this is going to be a total struggle bus to reach 400 now. It’s indeed going to be a small loss.

Edit - just noted Nancy says 450, but it’s tracking like 70 behind Quantumania. So I disagree on her read.

Just so I don’t always seem like a defender, nor a trades worshiper, I just love the data.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I still don't understand how they're making films now where it's basically, "It's ok, if you're bored and can't find something to watch on Disney+, maybe check it out."

I’m beginning to believe people have too high expectations for superhero films.

 

[Agent H]

Just so I don’t always seem like a defender, nor a trades worshiper, I just love the data.

The data is love. the data is life.

 

[Screamface]

I’m beginning to believe people have too high expectations for superhero films.

They managed to meet expectations for many, many years. It's not the audience's fault if they can no longer do that.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

They managed to meet expectations for many, many years. It's not the audience's fault if they can no longer do that.

View attachment 848481

They were never Shakespeare.

Not even Star Wars.

Frankly, there’s very little difference IMO between the ones that are worshipped and the ones that are trashed.

 

[WoundedDreamer]

I’m beginning to believe people have too high expectations for superhero films.

I do agree that we are in a painful period of adjusting our expectations to a streaming landscape. Still, I think it's fair to say Captain America 4 is a disappointment.

Films like Black Panther 2, Thor 4, and GotG 3 are a good baseline for a solid Marvel gross. Not as big or successful as 7 years ago, but still solid performers. GotG 3 and BP 2 both had strong reviews and were established franchises. Thor 4 was murkier critically, but likely sailed to a comfortable gross based on Hemsworth’s goodwill and Thor 3’s popularity.

Quantumania and CA 4 were both panned by critics. This gives us important context. Both these films earned weaker grosses than the films I mentioned earlier. Drawing a connection between the weaker gross and the critical problems seems entirely reasonable.

If two poorly reviewed films have grossed in the $400-$500 million range, what could a well-constructed Marvel film gross? That tier above CA 4/Quantumania is what a good Marvel film should be aiming for. Not Deadpool 3 or No Way Home numbers, but solid performance nonetheless. There’s a middle ground between the juggernauts and CA 4/Quantumania.

Disney is going to need to accept smaller grosses in a streaming world, but I don’t think Captain America 4 is the new baseline. Disney/Marvel is in transition. Captain America 4 seems like it was impacted by the Marvel Overproduction Crisis. Thunderbolts also seems like an impending stinker. Marvel’s turnaround will need a little while longer to start having an impact. Fantastic Four is the pivot point.

They were never Shakespeare.

Not even Star Wars.

Frankly, there’s very little difference IMO between the ones that are worshipped and the ones that are trashed.

Even the Walt Disney Company's CEO has acknowledged there was a quality dip:

"We've been working hard with the studio to reduce output and focus more on quality. That's particularly true with Marvel. I know you mentioned television shows. Some of what is coming up is a vestige of basically a desire in the past to increase volume. We're slowly going to decrease volume and go to probably about 2 TV series a year instead of what had become 4, and reduce our film output from maybe 4 a year to 2 to the maximum 3. And we're working hard on what that path is."

The Co-President of Marvel Studios admitted there was a quality dip:

“Maybe when you do too much, you dilute yourself a little bit... we’re not going to do that anymore. We learned our lesson. Maybe two to three films a year and one or two shows, as opposed to doing four films and four shows.”

And the Deadpool 3 director acknowledged it:

“You’d have to live under a rock not to know that the last few Marvel movies have failed to ignite the world in the way that so many did...”

There's no shame in admitting that mistakes were made. Iger has identified the root issue as overproduction. Personally, I think this is a reasonable explanation. The more projects there are the less oversight there is from the core management team. Problems can multiply rapidly without competent guidance from producers. Projects that should not have been approved for production were given the green light in order to meet the endless hunger for "content." It all makes intuitive sense.

Arguing that nothing changed over the last few years is a losing proposition.

 

[Screamface]

It's also interesting to consider that this may end up being a massive year for the Marvel comeback. Daredevil back on TV and is great so far. Thunderbolts looks decent. Fantastic Four will probably be huge and next year an Avengers movie and a Spiderman.

 

[Willmark]

FF has not traditionally done well on the big screen, but it does have my interest. Thunderbolts no idea what happens with that one, could see it going either way.

But I do agree the later end of the year I to next had a lot more promise.

 

[Rambozo]

I think he has little tolerance for inane posts.

this from a clown?

If you're trying to whip up the crowd to attack another poster whom you don't happen to like, go back to 4Chan.

Ahhh.., did Tony post something that hit a little too close to the truth for you

Whoa, don't be so sensitive! The guy gives an angry emoji at the drop of a hat. Maybe you guys should go out and get some fresh air and stop living on the boards. You remind me of the people on Twitter... well actually probably more like Blue Sky.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I do agree that we are in a painful period of adjusting our expectations to a streaming landscape. Still, I think it's fair to say Captain America 4 is a disappointment.

Films like Black Panther 2, Thor 4, and GotG 3 are a good baseline for a solid Marvel gross. Not as big or successful as 7 years ago, but still solid performers. GotG 3 and BP 2 both had strong reviews and were established franchises. Thor 4 was murkier critically, but likely sailed to a comfortable gross based on Hemsworth’s goodwill and Thor 3’s popularity.

Quantumania and CA 4 were both panned by critics. This gives us important context. Both these films earned weaker grosses than the films I mentioned earlier. Drawing a connection between the weaker gross and the critical problems seems entirely reasonable.

If two poorly reviewed films have grossed in the $400-$500 million range, what could a well-constructed Marvel film gross? That tier above CA 4/Quantumania is what a good Marvel film should be aiming for. Not Deadpool 3 or No Way Home numbers, but solid performance nonetheless. There’s a middle ground between the juggernauts and CA 4/Quantumania.

Disney is going to need to accept smaller grosses in a streaming world, but I don’t think Captain America 4 is the new baseline. Disney/Marvel is in transition. Captain America 4 seems like it was impacted by the Marvel Overproduction Crisis. Thunderbolts also seems like an impending stinker. Marvel’s turnaround will need a little while longer to start having an impact. Fantastic Four is the pivot point.


Even the Walt Disney Company's CEO has acknowledged there was a quality dip:

"We've been working hard with the studio to reduce output and focus more on quality. That's particularly true with Marvel. I know you mentioned television shows. Some of what is coming up is a vestige of basically a desire in the past to increase volume. We're slowly going to decrease volume and go to probably about 2 TV series a year instead of what had become 4, and reduce our film output from maybe 4 a year to 2 to the maximum 3. And we're working hard on what that path is."

The Co-President of Marvel Studios admitted there was a quality dip:

“Maybe when you do too much, you dilute yourself a little bit... we’re not going to do that anymore. We learned our lesson. Maybe two to three films a year and one or two shows, as opposed to doing four films and four shows.”

And the Deadpool 3 director acknowledged it:

“You’d have to live under a rock not to know that the last few Marvel movies have failed to ignite the world in the way that so many did...”

There's no shame in admitting that mistakes were made. Iger has identified the root issue as overproduction. Personally, I think this is a reasonable explanation. The more projects there are the less oversight there is from the core management team. Problems can multiply rapidly without competent guidance from producers. Projects that should not have been approved for production were given the green light in order to meet the endless hunger for "content." It all makes intuitive sense.

Arguing that nothing changed over the last few years is a losing proposition.

Cap 4 was much more watchable to me than Cap 1, which put me to sleep over and over again before I finally got through it. Everyone is different.

One could quibble over details, but cannot overlook the “not my Cap” campaign, which had zero to do with the quality of the film, but definitely affected the numbers.

Similar story with The Marvels, which I enjoyed more than most Marvel movies. Maybe I’m just not that into, or sick of the usual superhero schtick/formula. I grew up with the old Superman, which was cool. But unlike many in the bro-verse, I have no trouble accepting women in the leads, and a more lighthearted feel to the film.

I only watched Marvel movies selectively, after enjoying Iron Man and then being quickly bored by Iron Man 2. Ant-Man was one of my favorites, along with Guardians. Loved the first two Ant-Man films. Saw QM right away, started out hysterical about him saving the world, took a detour into the quantum realm - ok. I tend to go with the flow, and allow for the creatives to take me where they’re going. There was the same extra bad cgi with giant Ant-Man as there was with giant Ursula in TLM. I walked out after the film with some critique (as I do with every film - our ride home is discussing them) but not thinking it was a bomb. I would have preferred less quantum realm, but I get the whole Kang thing.

Maybe because I did grow up with Superman as my baseline, everything seems somewhat impressive - although I still don’t like cgi except for backgrounds. I begrudgingly accept it as part of the way movies are made now. I don’t generally hold superhero movies in high regard. If they’re fun, they work. Not meant to be taken so seriously.

Regardless, I stand by my point that there’s not a huge swing of difference between Cap 1 and Cap 4, between Captain Marvel and The Marvels, between Ant-Man 1 and QM, or between (insert any two Marvel movies here.)

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Whoa, don't be so sensitive! The guy gives an angry emoji at the drop of a hat.

Whoa, don’t be so sensitive at an angry emoji - especially after I explained my usage of it.

And if you research my emoji use you will find I absolutely do not use it at the drop of a hat. I use it when it is merited, which is not often.

And once again, if you’re going to talk about me, have the guts to say it to me and tag me.

 

[Chi84]

Whoa, don’t be so sensitive at an angry emoji - especially after I explained my usage of it.

And if you research my emoji use you will find I absolutely do not use it at the drop of a hat. I use it when it is merited, which is not often.

And once again, if you’re going to talk about me, have the guts to say it to me and tag me.

Or maybe we can stop feeding the clown. I can guarantee no one will miss anything worthwhile.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I just want to log that it really never looked that high following the debut weekend. I’m not sure what everyone else was thinking throwing those numbers around. The comp was always Quantumania and it was pretty locked with the CinemaScore. No second weekend miracle internationally materialized.

I use a very simple equation with movies, opening weekend is historically 25-33% of a movies domestic box office, and DBO is historically about 50% of total box office. The MCU usually does more international so in Marvels case I adjust domestic to 40-45% of total BO.

For Cap4 a $90m OW put that estimate at $180-270m domestically and about $400-675m worldwide. It’s going to fall in that range, just on the low end, based on a pretty solid 79 rotten tomatoes score I thought it would fall in the middle range instead.

That’s why I said Disney is likely disappointed over this, it likely fell within their predictions also, but on the low end which is disappointing.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You remind me of the people on Twitter... well actually probably more like Blue Sky.

Nice dog whistle there. Who's being sensitive again?

 

[Agent H]

Whoa, don't be so sensitive! The guy gives an angry emoji at the drop of a hat. Maybe you guys should go out and get some fresh air and stop living on the boards. You remind me of the people on Twitter... well actually probably more like Blue Sky.

In my experience blue sky is a much better site than twitter so I’m not sure what you’re point is there.

 

[MisterPenguin]

In my experience blue sky is a much better site than twitter so I’m not sure what you’re point is there.

It's a political one.