So just so I am tracking…
-The Chapek ouster wasn’t reactive to fudging D+ numbers or guest discontent, but rather because the board realized they needed a wartime consigliere
Sort of.
As Disney+ was surprisingly catching up to Netflix and was poised to be one of the winners of the Streaming War, Chapek kept up the unprecedented spending on Content, which, after the pandemic lockdowns were over and the economy was lurching around, wasn't the wisest thing to do. It led to Streaming throwing higher losses than anticipated for the year and Chapek's public response was a cheery "full stream ahead"!
When the Netflix bubble popped (BTW, you can have a successful streamer that makes a profit as Netflix has shown) for two quarters, Wall Street panicked over all streamers recognizing they weren't going to get huge profits off of them. So, all the streamers' stocks plummeted, including Netflix.
Disney needed someone who can talk Wall Street down from their panicked flight. And thus, Iger.
-The streaming bubble has popped/is popping, dragging Disney down with it
The stock valuation has popped. But Netflix is still profitable and Disney+ is on track to profitability. There will be some winners, but, there will definitely be losers in the Streaming Wars.
-Parks and Resorts have been strong, but now heading into a post-stimulus world where a recession is likely, which tends to stifle luxuries like vacations, cruises, and travel
The post-stimulus world began over a year ago. And luxury spending has rebounded already to near pre-pandemic levels. The recession everyone has been predicting for years still hasn't arrived. Unemployment is very low. That only real economic headwind now is inflation and it's started to trend downward.
-To the previous point, a bevy of discounts and cost cutting has been implemented, suggesting a softening of current/future bookings
There's always a softening of bookings after Christmas. This year there hasn't even been the usual round of park lay-offs going into the off-peak season.
And even when there isn't a softening of bookings, Disney has always had a variety of discount programs running.
As both Bobs have said, they have a bunch of 'levers' to adjust attendance levels. Just bring back 'free dining' and they can fill the vacancies up. Or remove some AP black out dates. Or start reselling APs.
Disneyland is making this time of year the cheapest prices for park tickets as a way to make things affordable for some guests. The various WDW discounts do the same for WDW. It offers people on a tighter budget the opportunity to go to the parks, which is the response to the complaints that Disney has become too expensive.
If Disney wasn't concerned about those people, they wouldn't have built budget motels or have a campground.