Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

[MisterPenguin]

A CinemaScore rating of "A" is historically associated with a movie making 3.6 times it's opening weekend. That'll be a final $1.2 Billion Box Office. That's about a $450M net profit.

Oops. That's a net profit of $225M since it's shared with the theaters (as a rule of thumb).

 

[DKampy]

It's OW from the first one is the same as The Last Jedi from The Force Awakens. However, the obstacles are reversed, which will benefit BP2.

Both sequels were coming off of VERY popular and acclaimed predecessors. The Last Jedi had no obstacles at all coming in. However, despite high critics reviews, the WOM quickly became negative. I'm not getting into why, but let's just say that the issues it had came AFTER its release. So it lost a lot of steam compared to the first and didn't even have a 3.0 multiplier from OW.

BP2, on the other hand was reversed. It also followed a highly acclaimed film. However, the passing of Chadwick, controversies around whether to recast him as well as Leticia Wright drama created the obstacles BEFORE its release. Then it came out. Audiences have LOVED it. So let's look at the opening weekend numbers.

Both openings dropped about 10-12% (we'll have to see what BP2's actual numbers end up being). But here's the difference. The Last Jedi has a preview number of $45 million. It's overall opening weekend was 4.9X that number. And THAT is with the Christmas holiday beginning the following week for many. BP2's preview numbers were $28 million. It's OW was 6.5 the preview numbers. Sure we had Veterans Day, but that's not really a holiday for most people.

Let's also look at a comparison between BP2 and Strange2 (DSMoM). BP2 had a lower preview number but a bigger multiplier. DSMoM had 3 things that bolstered its preview numbers and OW. (1) It came off the heels of No Way Home. (2) It promised a follow up to Wandavision. (3) There were endless rumors/spoilers about cameos that people thought would be along the lines of Garfield and McGuire. What happened? (1) It had nothing really to do with NWH. (2) What they did with Wanda did not sit well with many. (3) the cameos were nothing and, quite honestly, kinda stupid and insulting.

I expect BP2 to have pretty good legs and should end up crossing $500 million domestic. In the end, it should end up with a decrease similar to Age of Ultron and The Last Jedi. However, it will end up much more respected.

Agreed with most of this…I believe at the time Strange 2 was more anticipated than panther 2 due to rumored multiverse possibilities… when that didn’t happen disappointment set in.. although I liked it more than most people, but I saw it as a Sam Rami movie

I feel Wakanda is more well liked excluding the typical “Anti-Woke” crowd

 

[Disney Analyst]

Hollywood Report is saying 181 million weekend, for 331.3 million global:

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Commands Huge $181M U.S. Opening, $331.3M Globally

The Marvel Studios sequel hunted down the biggest November launch of all time at the domestic box office. Elsewhere, Steven Spielberg's Oscar contender 'The Fabelmans' opened to strong numbers in New York and Los Angeles.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

ETA: Disney's release:

 

[_caleb]

Want some real fun? Go back to the beginning of this thread and read some of the assertions, prognostications, and hot takes.

 

[Jedijax719]

The more I think about this movie and the characters and story, the more I love it. I won't be able to see it again until it is on D+, but it keeps getting better and better in my mind. So many stories and arcs that are a bit overwhelming, but breaking each down, they all keep getting better!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So what do we think about it? I haven’t read anything yet except the mojo numbers

 

[Ghost93]

So what do we think about it? I haven’t read anything yet except the mojo numbers

The narrative is a bit messy due to the shift from focusing on one central character (T'challa) to having to expand into an ensemble piece with multiple subplots. However, the movie has excellent performances, strong character arcs, improved visual effects, great world-building, and packs an emotional punch. I'd give it a solid 8/10. It has more flaws than the first film, but the elements that work in the movie are so strong and so much better than anything in the first film that I think the two movies are about tied in terms of overall quality.

 

[Screamface]

So what do we think about it? I haven’t read anything yet except the mojo numbers

I was bored by most of it. Didn't feel it had the fun entertainment aspect that Marvel films have. Even the films that I would say are objectively worse, I still always have some fun and excitement. Was just watching stuff happen as scene moved to next scene. Not particularly interesting or engaging with the plot. For a large stretch of the first half of the film, a lot of the characters are acting kind of obnoxious with attitude. Was annoying just seeing characters snapping at each other, I think it was meant to be funny...

Of course, there are some feels from the Chadwick stuff.

I don't like ranking things, just grouping them. I would put this with The Eternals as just not being entertaining for me and a little bit of a chore to sit through. Which is a shame as I quite enjoyed the first one.

Glad others liked it, I wish I had enjoyed it more. Hopefully Antman's good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can't wait to go back and see all of the overly positive posts. Especially when it comes nowhere near a billion dollars.

Those people will probably just move onto the next Marvel movie or show and say that's great. That's what they always do with anything Disney owns.

Ehhhh…

I was on the record in saying that this wasn’t gonna perform that well.

Not a bad movie…and certainly not a flop…but nowhere near prognostication of $1.5+ billion.

Come on. Black panther died. And this is a trend with marvel.

And this is the thing…Disney is starting to gutter marvel. Some of the choices/directions are starting to smell a little. Certainly much more money to be had…but they prolly shouldn’t have offed cap and Tony. Just saying.

But I’m looking forward to seeing this - probably this weekend - to see how they put it together?

…still a little shell shocked at “analysis” of Disney’s movie business around here. We still can’t get people to believe their eyes on Star Wars…or the financials
I suppose variety is the spice of life.

 

[Ghost93]

And this is the thing…Disney is starting to gutter marvel. Some of the choices/directions are starting to smell a little. Certainly much more money to be had…but they prolly shouldn’t have offed cap and Tony. Just saying.

Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans wanted to leave Marvel after Endgame, which is part of why they were written out. If they ever return, it will only be because their non-Marvel project didn't take off like they thought they would.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans wanted to leave Marvel after Endgame, which is part of why they were written out. If they ever return, it will only be because their non-Marvel project didn't take off like they thought they would.

You sure they didn’t what $50+ a pic?

Downey was already getting that.

I’ve seen about a dozen interviews with evens about this…he hedged to hell.

Read between the lines there.

 

[LSLS]

I don't mind losing them both. My problem is this phase hasn't come together. 3 things have really melded together at all so far, that being wandavision, strange, and spiderman. I get some of the others might be eventually, but it's almost too long a game right now. We have what, like 7 shows and 5 movies at this point? And we don't have a character overarching through all of them that makes you at least follow how this will combine. It feels like this was a completely throw away phase, and that the plans are really for 5 to build into 6.

 

[Ghost93]

I think Marvel Studios was planning on T'Challa being one of the big players to replace Tony and Steve, but Chadwick's death sort of threw a wrench in those plans.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don't mind losing them both. My problem is this phase hasn't come together. 3 things have really melded together at all so far, that being wandavision, strange, and spiderman. I get some of the others might be eventually, but it's almost too long a game right now. We have what, like 7 shows and 5 movies at this point? And we don't have a character overarching through all of them that makes you at least follow how this will combine. It feels like this was a completely throw away phase, and that the plans are really for 5 to build into 6.

The Infinity Saga took 3 phases to tell. Phases 1 and 2 were a lot of introductions.

 

[LSLS]

The Infinity Saga took 3 phases to tell. Phases 1 and 2 were a lot of introductions.

Somewhat. But you had a lot of them coming together as part of the introductions. 5 movies, and you get an Avengers bringing them together. 4 more, they come together again. Another, then them together again. 5 more and we are to Infinity Wars. And throughout most movies you have Fury and Shield, so you could see the direction they were headed. I just don't see that at this point for Phase 4, which I think has made some of the losses feel greater than maybe they should (again, for me personally).

 

[Disney Irish]

Somewhat. But you had a lot of them coming together as part of the introductions. 5 movies, and you get an Avengers bringing them together. 4 more, they come together again. Another, then them together again. 5 more and we are to Infinity Wars. And throughout most movies you have Fury and Shield, so you could see the direction they were headed. I just don't see that at this point for Phase 4, which I think has made some of the losses feel greater than maybe they should (again, for me personally).

So really except for an Avengers movie capping off the end of each phase, this Multiverse Saga is starting out no different. Its introducing us to new characters in 4 and 5 that'll become important later, such as Kang in Loki, Shang-Chi, Blade, etc. And setting up the Young Avengers for the future phases. All culminating in the two huge Avengers movies at the end of 6 which will be adding up to more than the previous Avengers movies combined.

 

[LSLS]

So really except for an Avengers movie capping off the end of each phase, this Multiverse Saga is starting out no different. Its introducing us to new characters in 4 and 5 that'll become important later, such as Kang in Loki, Shang-Chi, Blade, etc. And setting up the Young Avengers for the future phases. All culminating in the two huge Avengers movies at the end of 6 which will be adding up to more than the previous Avengers movies combined.

Eh, for me it's much different right now. Like I said, there were characters/organizations that went throughout a lot of the stuff. I don't need an Avengers movie for a cap, but I need it to start making sense on how it's coming together. Yeah, Young Avengers seem to be being setup, but from Iron Man, we knew Fury had an Avengers initiative. We have all these characters all off on their own, to the point people actually argue if they are even in the same Multiverse now. I do expect it to all come together, but it is going much slower than I personally would like. It just feels like there has been too much content at this point not to have things connecting some for me. Or, to put another way, it felt like you couldn't miss a movie because they were all so important to the larger stories. I just don't feel that right now.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I thought Phase 4 was The Wong Initiative?

 

[Disney Irish]

Eh, for me it's much different right now. Like I said, there were characters/organizations that went throughout a lot of the stuff. I don't need an Avengers movie for a cap, but I need it to start making sense on how it's coming together. Yeah, Young Avengers seem to be being setup, but from Iron Man, we knew Fury had an Avengers initiative. We have all these characters all off on their own, to the point people actually argue if they are even in the same Multiverse now. I do expect it to all come together, but it is going much slower than I personally would like. It just feels like there has been too much content at this point not to have things connecting some for me. Or, to put another way, it felt like you couldn't miss a movie because they were all so important to the larger stories. I just don't feel that right now.

Well I expect that Quantumania in February will start to feel that way for you as it really starts to get into the Kang story even more. This is where you hopefully will see the stakes of the Multiverse Saga come to light.

 

[Disney Irish]

I still don't get why they didn't get Michael B. Jordan to be an alternate universe T'Challa. It's common sense.

Because the multiverse isn't the story they were focused on in Wakanda Forever.

Also without giving it away if you actually watched the movie you would know that Jordan played a role in this movie already.