Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Even if the movie holds and goes on to gross $1.5 billion and make a profit, history suggests (as the shakeup of Marvel Studios after Age of Ultron shows) that Disney will see that as a disappointment because it didn't outgross the first movie as people were predicting. That will necessitate changes at 20th Century (and the overall Disney Studios unit) and demand Cameron make changes to Avatar 3. History shows he does not like being told "No".
Literally nobody predicted that TWOW would outgross the original.
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
I wouldn't be too shocked if that movie overperforms, but whenever Christmas lands on a weekend it historically doesn't translate to big box office numbers (especially this year, where Xmas is on a Sunday, and Xmas Eve will be full of NFL games).
A lot depends on how many people realize it’s almost as long as Avatar 2!
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
Avatar 2 was always going to do well; it’s been over a decade since the last movie, and there’s pent-up interest in seeing the sequel that a lot of people never thought would be released. The tech is more advanced, and the underwater environment is new and different enough to sell to general audiences who might’ve been lukewarm on the original.

Real question is what kind of drop off is there with the next one coming in two years. It’s got real Star Wars potential where each sequel banks less than the previous. And imo this one didn’t have a very compelling cliffhanger ending in terms of creating demand for the next installment (which was one of the things Force Awakens did well).
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
A lot depends on how many people realize it’s almost as long as Avatar 2!
It is why I might wait… I heard it’s a bit mess of movie but entertaining… I am going to guess the length is causing the mess and it loses it’s focus

I have not Seen Avatar yet… I have tickets Christmas Day since I wanted good seats in a good theater for that… but I heard the length flies by and does not feel like 3 hours so I am less concerned there
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Except Maverick also did very well internationally and has a kind of nostalgia to it that Avatar just doesn't have.

Even if it legs out in the US (which I highly doubt), the spectacular collapse in China, Japan and Europe will keep it at risk of losing Disney at least tens of millions.

And while Disney is in comparatively better financial shape than most of the competition (WBD especially), 2023 could end up being a total bloodbath in employee layoffs and canceled movies and shows, especially if Iger fears activists or impatient longtime investors will attempt to remove him or force a break-up or sale of parts or all of the company. It won't matter that they made more money this year than in 2021 and 2020.
Dude, activist investors are not as powerful as you think they are when it comes to a large company like TWDC. As most don't hold enough shares to affect anything on their own. Many have been pushing to get Disney to spinoff many units like ESPN for the better part of a decade and its gone nowhere. Basically they make headlines, that is the largest extent of their power, in a hope to get other investors on board with whatever they want to change about a company. And as we've seen it usually goes nowhere. Also its the BoD not investors that makes decisions about Iger's or any CEOs future as we've seen recently with the previous guy. So not sure what you're talking about here.

Are you secretly Dan Loeb, is that why you keep pumping up activist investors on this site. Lol
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Budget at ~$375M.

Break even point worldwide: $1.1B.

This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.) :oops:
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Didn’t they shoot number 3 at the same time? I have to assume some of that budget is for Avatar 3?

Of course, I would guess most of Avatar’s budget is made up of all the post production / VFX work after shooting.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I love that
Didn’t they shoot number 3 at the same time? I have to assume some of that budget is for Avatar 3?

Of course, I would guess most of Avatar’s budget is made up of all the post production / VFX work after shooting.

I had read that Cameron stated he used a budget of $1 Billion to shoot these three Avatar sequels. But I was unaware of how that broke down per movie.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I find The Numbers site to be extremely reliable and endlessly useful for all things financial about Hollywood movies.

Avatar 1 made $2.9 Billion in '09. And Avatar 2 is ahead of its opening weekend pace, for American box office. These figures are unadjusted for inflation...

ProfitIsRequiredInBusiness.jpg



 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.) :oops:
Those huge water tanks they used for all the motion capture for the underwater scenes ain't cheap....

Avatar-2-New-Images-Show-New-Dimension-of-Underwater-Cinematography.002.jpeg
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.) :oops:
James Cameron is the Joe Rhode of major motion pictures.
 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
Even if the movie holds and goes on to gross $1.5 billion and make a profit, history suggests (as the shakeup of Marvel Studios after Age of Ultron shows) that Disney will see that as a disappointment because it didn't outgross the first movie as people were predicting. That will necessitate changes at 20th Century (and the overall Disney Studios unit) and demand Cameron make changes to Avatar 3. History shows he does not like being told "No".

There is literally no one out that that expected Avatar 2 to beat the original's box office. No matter how crazy Disney and Wall Street may be, no one is or was expecting anything near $2.9 billion for this film. Optimistic expectations for this film was to get to $2B and who knows if it will since legs and the demand for premium theater experience can have this behave quite differently than other films these days.

That may seem insane, but WB did exactly that to DC after Batman v. Superman, because even with nearly $900 million in the worldwide box office disappointed WB because they were expecting more. And it was all downhill for DC from there.

WB changed course at BvS: DoJ because the box office cratered after the opening weekend and it was universally panned by moviegoers. The movie somehow made over half the domestic box office in the opening weekend. You have to work really hard to have a film with this many popular well known characters and have it drop of a cliff like that because word of mouth was so bad.

And while Justice League was a mess (because it was in the hands of the same idiot who had no idea how to write for these characters), every other DC film since then has been superior to DoJ. Of course that's an extremely low bar to clear but it's hard to say that the DCEU had gone "downhill" from that - it never climbed up any hill to start with.
 
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Figments Friend

Well-Known Member
Lol, I thought the same thing! They said "bro" as many times as Rose said "Jack" in Titanic. Cameron is great at structuring a story and manipulating audience's emotions, but dialogue isn't his strong suit.

I actually feel the movie could have been even LONGER!! I would have liked to have spent an additional 20 minutes at the start of the film exploring the Sully family dynamic before the humans return.

Agree with the length.
When the film ended, I was like…wait…it’s over?
I looked at my watch in the dark and was stunned,
It honestly did NOT feel like three hours.
When the ending came, I wanted more…and that is good.
The number one rule in entertainment is to ALWAYS leave your audience wanting more.

Of course I am sure it was planned that way since we already know sequels are lined up…and yeah, I felt that.
It hits you at the end, when the realization comes it is the end of the film…and the credits roll.
It is defiantly set up in a ‘to be continued’ sort of way.


And yes, I agree with you regarding the start of the film.

( warning : possible spoilers for those who have not seen the film…skip below if you want to avoid them! )




I liked they way Cameron began this film as I was not expecting it.
In hindsight, it was a little rushed…and felt like he really just wanted to get on with the story.
He did not do what a lot of filmmakers do and cut together a quick repeat/refresh of how the last film ended.
Nope. Not here.
Within what seemed five minutes we are back on Pandora immediately, have a brief few minutes with the central Na’vi characters and then WHOOSH the RDA is landing and torching the Pandorean rainforest.
Crikey…talk about breakneck speed in starting a movie!
Brisk pace…but the effect worked here.

Yes, it would have been welcome to explore that family dynamic better at the beginning.
But Cameron chose to not do this fully until we get further into the story.
Interesting way to handle it, and again, a little different then what one might expect.
But I like different…and he had his reasons to choose to do so.

This film needs to be seen more then once, that is for sure,
I know I missed things the first time around…and will pick up some additional insights the second time.
Always do with complex films like this, and part of the enjoyment of seeing it again is discovering all of those little bits that were missed.

-
 


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