Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
Avatar is all about legs. The original opened to nothing spectacular, but word of mouth and incredible legs helped it reach its historical milestone.
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Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels
- Thread starter MisterPenguin
- Start date
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Unlike Marvel or Star Wars, the appeal of Avatar is more about the immersive, transportive experience. So there is less of a need to rush out opening weekend to avoid spoilers.
That could change with Avatar 3 and beyond, but right now I think more people are set on wanting to see Avatar: The Way of Water in a premium theater screen rather than seeing it opening night, regardless of where you are seated, to avoid spoilers.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I'm going for Laser Ultra 3D and if you're wondering what the difference is between that and regular 3D, it's about $3 extra added to the ticket price.
One thing I will say is that the last movie I saw in IMAX, the volume was excessively loud. I don't know if that's an IMAX thing or just a specific theater thing but I wasn't impressed. The picture was certainly crystal clear though.
Personally, given the run time I'm sticking with theaters that have recliner seating as opposed to the biggest screen, IMAX or otherwise.
mickEblu
Well-Known Member
I agree. I saw the new Minions movie in IMAX and it was ear shattering loud. I had recently seen a different movie in Dolby and came to the conclusion I preferred Dolby. Especially when it’s not the traditional humongous IMAX screen
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
Except this is 2022. Far less people are going to the theater now than they were back then (there are reports Way of Water is running behind the original by not-insignificant margins in some countries). Not only in the US but worldwide. Opening weekends now matter more than ever because of it. There's zero chance we'll ever get another Avengers: Endgame record for a long time.
Even if the movie holds better than Marvel, DC and Star Wars movies on weekend 2, assuming Cameron's statement that the movie needs to gross $2 billion+ to break even is true and not a joke, this film was a flop before it was even finished. And for all the talk that there's "no competition" for the next two months, what happens if PIB: TLW and M3GAN end up overperforming tracking estimates? Way of Water may not even crack $1.5 billion if that happens.
If I were Iger I would prepare for the possibility of not making it beyond 2023.
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Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
Very doom and gloom outlook for sure. Haven’t seen any of the box office reports state such doom yet.
I guess we really won’t know until the run ends
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Legs are one thing and for a $260 m opening during COVID, No Way Home had decent legs. Top Gun Maverick had unthinkable legs. But even since then things have changed. 3.5X-4.0X is probably expected for Avatar 2 legs. That would give it about $540-$550 m domestic. Great number! But far below expectations from the industry and projection sites.
World wide? Who knows? I cannot wrap my head around WW any more. Maybe $1.5-$1.8 billion?
World wide? Who knows? I cannot wrap my head around WW any more. Maybe $1.5-$1.8 billion?
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
Some Very Serious Hollywood pundits were predicting a $200 million opening weekend domestically, but I cannot find a single reputable box office site that projected that. There was zero chance it was going to make that much.
As far to why some international markets are crapping up, I believe the culprit is Europe and Japan dealing with record inflation and economic contraction that they weren't dealing with in 2009-10. The fact that the movie isn't even releasing in Russia, one of the largest European cinema markets, due to Disney pausing operations there (no points for guessing as to why that is) isn't helping.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
James Cameron's quote about it needing to be one the top grossing films of all time is taken way out of context because one movie needing to make $2 billion to break even makes ZERO sense. The movie costs $350-$400 million, so the movie actually needs to make $800 million to $1 billion to break even. Cameroon is likely referring either to the domestic box office or to the costs of Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 (which were filmed simultaneously) combined.
Slpy3270
Well-Known Member
If it barely reaches that mark Disney will start asserting control Avatar 3 and demand Cameron cut costs, which, knowing who Cameron is, he will never agree with that.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
If you figure it out on the high side of 3x the budget, you are at 1 to 1.2 billion. It's still a lot to have to hit to break even. But the 2 billion was James making headlines in my opinion. It's him drumming up the old, let's see what all the fuss is about, technique.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Now I don’t think Christmas timing is actually very good for the second weekend. I think I recall it’s better for Christmas to be mid week than fall on the weekend, but maybe I’m misremembering. Sunday numbers next week will be good, but perhaps poor Saturday ones.
Just to get ahead of inevitable conclusions.
Just to get ahead of inevitable conclusions.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
I read somebody say that all analysis is basically useless on this one until January 3.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't say absolutely useless, but this one may drive differently through the holidays than a SW or MCU movie. The first one had the legs it had because it was a new property and took time to spread WOM (along with the new tech that was unseen at the time). But as many said before, this one also doesn't have the "have to see immediately" urgency due to spoilers. It's going to be mid-week numbers that drive it mostly since the Eves are on Saturdays.
All that said, this movie should have a greater portion of its total box office run completed by New Years than the first one did or probably even The Force Awakens did. People just seem to be so massively busy these days. I think a 3.5-4.0 multiplier is probably a good bet. Could be higher for sure, but probably not any lower. With a $140 m OW, that puts the domestic total between $490 m and $560 m. Due to the international appeal (although Japan is looking lower than expected), the movie could make 60-65% of its total overseas. I'm going to estimate between $1.4 billion (very low) to $1.8 billion WW when all is said and done. We'll if this holds up.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Christmas day will make money but Christmas eve taking place on a Saturday will hurt the box office.
‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Global Opening Rises To $441.6M – International Box Office Update
Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $441.6M globally, including $307.6M from international markets with Sunday actuals included
deadline.com
Worldwide opening expected to be ~$400M.
Budget at ~$375M.
Break even point worldwide: $1.1B.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Global Opening Rises To $441.6M – International Box Office Update
Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $441.6M globally, including $307.6M from international markets with Sunday actuals included
Worldwide opening expected to be ~$400M.
Budget at ~$375M.
Break even point worldwide: $1.1B.
So lower then thought. Was reading 525M originally.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
China's box office totals are coming way below original estimates due to the COVID situation surging there. Unlike America, people in China don't have any type of herd immunity due to how strict the lockdowns had been the past few years. The panic there over COVID is similar to how America was in 2020.
MrPromey
Well-Known Member
My alternate suggestion is to buy a large soda, drink fast, and then you have everything you need right there in the theater and you don't miss a moment!
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