Unlike Marvel or Star Wars, the appeal of Avatar is more about the immersive, transportive experience. So there is less of a need to rush out opening weekend to avoid spoilers.
Except this is 2022. Far less people are going to the theater now than they were back then (there are reports Way of Water is running behind the original by not-insignificant margins in some countries). Not only in the US but worldwide. Opening weekends now matter more than ever because of it. There's zero chance we'll ever get another Avengers: Endgame record for a long time.
Some Very Serious Hollywood pundits were predicting a $200 million opening weekend domestically, but I cannot find a single reputable box office site that projected that. There was zero chance it was going to make that much.
James Cameron's quote about it needing to be one the top grossing films of all time is taken way out of context because one movie needing to make $2 billion to break even makes ZERO sense. The movie costs $350-$400 million, so the movie actually needs to make $800 million to $1 billion to break even. Cameroon is likely referring either to the domestic box office or to the costs of Avatar 2 and Avatar 3 (which were filmed simultaneously) combined.
If it barely reaches that mark Disney will start asserting control Avatar 3 and demand Cameron cut costs, which, knowing who Cameron is, he will never agree with that.
If you figure it out on the high side of 3x the budget, you are at 1 to 1.2 billion. It's still a lot to have to hit to break even. But the 2 billion was James making headlines in my opinion. It's him drumming up the old, let's see what all the fuss is about, technique.
I read somebody say that all analysis is basically useless on this one until January 3.
I wouldn't say absolutely useless, but this one may drive differently through the holidays than a SW or MCU movie. The first one had the legs it had because it was a new property and took time to spread WOM (along with the new tech that was unseen at the time). But as many said before, this one also doesn't have the "have to see immediately" urgency due to spoilers. It's going to be mid-week numbers that drive it mostly since the Eves are on Saturdays.
Christmas day will make money but Christmas eve taking place on a Saturday will hurt the box office.
deadline.com
‘Avatar: The Way Of Water’ Global Opening Rises To $441.6M – International Box Office Update
Avatar: The Way of Water opened to $441.6M globally, including $307.6M from international markets with Sunday actuals included
Worldwide opening expected to be ~$400M.
Budget at ~$375M.
Break even point worldwide: $1.1B.
China's box office totals are coming way below original estimates due to the COVID situation surging there. Unlike America, people in China don't have any type of herd immunity due to how strict the lockdowns had been the past few years. The panic there over COVID is similar to how America was in 2020.
