Avatar (the movie) and its Sequels

[Slpy3270]

Uhh what..
It was not just Nostalgia… if it was it would have opened better… it was the great word of mouth… the original Top Gun is not a great movie.

From where I sit Avatar has that some great word of mouth with people saying it has to be seen in a theater. I have seen a few people who did not care for the 1st one who loved this one.

The fact remains this has the best Friday to Saturday hold than any wide released movie this year

Even if the movie holds and goes on to gross $1.5 billion and make a profit, history suggests (as the shakeup of Marvel Studios after Age of Ultron shows) that Disney will see that as a disappointment because it didn't outgross the first movie as people were predicting. That will necessitate changes at 20th Century (and the overall Disney Studios unit) and demand Cameron make changes to Avatar 3. History shows he does not like being told "No".

That may seem insane, but WB did exactly that to DC after Batman v. Superman, because even with nearly $900 million in the worldwide box office disappointed WB because they were expecting more. And it was all downhill for DC from there.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Even if the movie holds and goes on to gross $1.5 billion and make a profit, history suggests (as the shakeup of Marvel Studios after Age of Ultron shows) that Disney will see that as a disappointment because it didn't outgross the first movie as people were predicting. That will necessitate changes at 20th Century (and the overall Disney Studios unit) and demand Cameron make changes to Avatar 3. History shows he does not like being told "No".

Literally nobody predicted that TWOW would outgross the original.

 

[Slpy3270]

Literally nobody predicted that TWOW would outgross the original.

They were all expecting at least $2 billion worldwide, on par with the original.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They were all expecting at least $2 billion worldwide, on par with the original.

Dude.

The original did $2.75 billion.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We are forgetting. We need to denounce things not made by Disney and praise stuff made by Disney no matter how crappy it is.

Toy Story 1 was the worst. But it got better when Disney bought it!!

 

[Slpy3270]

Dude.

The original did $2.75 billion.

That number factors in re-releases.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That number factors in re-releases.

No. It doesn't. The re-release total is $2.9 billion.

You're just making things up.

 

[Phroobar]

Toy Story 1 was the worst. But it got better when Disney bought it!!

That's the spirit!

 

[TalkingHead]

I wouldn't be too shocked if that movie overperforms, but whenever Christmas lands on a weekend it historically doesn't translate to big box office numbers (especially this year, where Xmas is on a Sunday, and Xmas Eve will be full of NFL games).

A lot depends on how many people realize it’s almost as long as Avatar 2!

 

[TalkingHead]

Avatar 2 was always going to do well; it’s been over a decade since the last movie, and there’s pent-up interest in seeing the sequel that a lot of people never thought would be released. The tech is more advanced, and the underwater environment is new and different enough to sell to general audiences who might’ve been lukewarm on the original.

Real question is what kind of drop off is there with the next one coming in two years. It’s got real Star Wars potential where each sequel banks less than the previous. And imo this one didn’t have a very compelling cliffhanger ending in terms of creating demand for the next installment (which was one of the things Force Awakens did well).

 

[DKampy]

A lot depends on how many people realize it’s almost as long as Avatar 2!

It is why I might wait… I heard it’s a bit mess of movie but entertaining… I am going to guess the length is causing the mess and it loses it’s focus

I have not Seen Avatar yet… I have tickets Christmas Day since I wanted good seats in a good theater for that… but I heard the length flies by and does not feel like 3 hours so I am less concerned there

 

[Disney Irish]

Except Maverick also did very well internationally and has a kind of nostalgia to it that Avatar just doesn't have.

Even if it legs out in the US (which I highly doubt), the spectacular collapse in China, Japan and Europe will keep it at risk of losing Disney at least tens of millions.

And while Disney is in comparatively better financial shape than most of the competition (WBD especially), 2023 could end up being a total bloodbath in employee layoffs and canceled movies and shows, especially if Iger fears activists or impatient longtime investors will attempt to remove him or force a break-up or sale of parts or all of the company. It won't matter that they made more money this year than in 2021 and 2020.

Dude, activist investors are not as powerful as you think they are when it comes to a large company like TWDC. As most don't hold enough shares to affect anything on their own. Many have been pushing to get Disney to spinoff many units like ESPN for the better part of a decade and its gone nowhere. Basically they make headlines, that is the largest extent of their power, in a hope to get other investors on board with whatever they want to change about a company. And as we've seen it usually goes nowhere. Also its the BoD not investors that makes decisions about Iger's or any CEOs future as we've seen recently with the previous guy. So not sure what you're talking about here.

Are you secretly Dan Loeb, is that why you keep pumping up activist investors on this site. Lol

 

[TP2000]

Budget at ~$375M.

Break even point worldwide: $1.1B.

This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.)

 

[Disney Analyst]

Didn’t they shoot number 3 at the same time? I have to assume some of that budget is for Avatar 3?

Of course, I would guess most of Avatar’s budget is made up of all the post production / VFX work after shooting.

 

[TP2000]

I love that

Didn’t they shoot number 3 at the same time? I have to assume some of that budget is for Avatar 3?

Of course, I would guess most of Avatar’s budget is made up of all the post production / VFX work after shooting.

I had read that Cameron stated he used a budget of $1 Billion to shoot these three Avatar sequels. But I was unaware of how that broke down per movie.

 

[TP2000]

I find The Numbers site to be extremely reliable and endlessly useful for all things financial about Hollywood movies.

Avatar 1 made $2.9 Billion in '09. And Avatar 2 is ahead of its opening weekend pace, for American box office. These figures are unadjusted for inflation...

Movie Comparison: Avatar (2009) vs. Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)

Domestic box office comparison between Avatar (2009) and Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.)

Those huge water tanks they used for all the motion capture for the underwater scenes ain't cheap....

 

[TP2000]

Those huge water tanks they used for all the motion capture for the underwater scenes ain't cheap....

Someone in Hollywood is probably kicking themselves for getting rid of the big water tank they used for Airport '77.

It could have saved them a few bucks.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This Avatar sequel had a budget of $375 Million? And thus requires it to reach $1.1 Billion globally before it breaks even and starts creating some profit for Burbank???

I just don't understand how they spend money like that on a movie. Where does all that money go? (Besides Mimosa tabs at overpriced brunch places in Silver Lake, of course.)

James Cameron is the Joe Rhode of major motion pictures.

 

[doctornick]

Even if the movie holds and goes on to gross $1.5 billion and make a profit, history suggests (as the shakeup of Marvel Studios after Age of Ultron shows) that Disney will see that as a disappointment because it didn't outgross the first movie as people were predicting. That will necessitate changes at 20th Century (and the overall Disney Studios unit) and demand Cameron make changes to Avatar 3. History shows he does not like being told "No".

There is literally no one out that that expected Avatar 2 to beat the original's box office. No matter how crazy Disney and Wall Street may be, no one is or was expecting anything near $2.9 billion for this film. Optimistic expectations for this film was to get to $2B and who knows if it will since legs and the demand for premium theater experience can have this behave quite differently than other films these days.

That may seem insane, but WB did exactly that to DC after Batman v. Superman, because even with nearly $900 million in the worldwide box office disappointed WB because they were expecting more. And it was all downhill for DC from there.

WB changed course at BvS: DoJ because the box office cratered after the opening weekend and it was universally panned by moviegoers. The movie somehow made over half the domestic box office in the opening weekend. You have to work really hard to have a film with this many popular well known characters and have it drop of a cliff like that because word of mouth was so bad.

And while Justice League was a mess (because it was in the hands of the same idiot who had no idea how to write for these characters), every other DC film since then has been superior to DoJ. Of course that's an extremely low bar to clear but it's hard to say that the DCEU had gone "downhill" from that - it never climbed up any hill to start with.