News Annual Pass price increases June 2019

[VaderTron]

Yeah, pretty much what I was seeing in the annual report. I do try to come prepared with numbers when I make statements! Thanks for posting.

Since everyone knows that the recession was just getting STARTED in 2007 and 2008 and the real effects of spending cuts didn't effect the average family hardest until 2010-2013 it would seem those profit bars show exactly what was stated: Profits plummeted for Disney as a result of the recession. People had to take a break from the "extras" for a while as they tried to recoup losses and rebuild savings.

Don't forget too that Disney vacations are often planned a year or more in advance. So, the tanking of profits in 2010 and beyond were a result of losses felt by families in 2009.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Since everyone knows that the recession was just getting STARTED in 2007 and 2008 and the real effects of spending cuts didn't effect the average family hardest until 2010-2013 it would seem those profit bars show exactly what was stated: Profits plummeted for Disney during the recession years.

09-11 were the worst years...no doubt.

Nobody should need a chart...housing was in the toilet in many areas of the country and the economy was still hemorrhaging money.

It wasn’t THAT long ago, people...develop some memory skills

 

[MrPromey]

Yeah this seems yet another attempt to control crowding without expanding like they need to. Rat is also an expansion it’s not replacing anything and is added to the existing pavilion. But agreed on the rest.

When we see them take six months off from aggressively marketing, I'll believe that they're actually doing something to control crowding.

Heck, think of all the money they'd save in that marketing budget!

They ran a commercial for Toy Story Land during the Super Bowl last year. They simply don't care anymore. It's just an easy way to justify price increases to the public.

 

[VaderTron]

The Disney management has convinced themselves that they are strong enough to make the budgets of their customers irrelevant. Either through replacement customers or temporary pricing If they get blowback.

To his credit: Iger has gotten away with it. Can’t be denied.

But it also shows why he should be GONE.

What???...but squawkbox loves him!!!??


Yeah...I know soulless grabbers love him...

But there’s a leadership crisis that they’ve just learned to deal with. No less than what Roy fought Eisner on. Damaging short term pricing is just a dangerous as failures and stagnation in the realistic sense. And when staggs/Rasulo were pushed out that was a huge red flag everyone ignored. No succession plan. Worse that before. You have a guy with a parachute on and NOBODY behind: and a weak/mercenary board.

There’s an easy; predicable path to crisis. Bobs playing with house money and everyone else is on a cold streak at the table - potentially.

Agreed they are not making decisions that will be good for the long-term. Yes, they have gotten away with it in the short-term, but the reason is built-in loyalty that results from previous management. It's like when you have a favorite restaurant that your family has gone to for all the parties and special occasions for the past 10 years. They always get your order right, the service is A+, and they do little extras like decorations for your table or a free cake. Your whole family loves the place and can't wait for the next time you can go. Then a new manager comes in. Over time things start to change. Those special extras now cost extra. The service slowly declines a bit. I mean, it's still good, but nothing close to what it once was. The prices on the menu go up. Then after a while they change to a la carte menu pricing. Eventually your family decides they don't have to go to this restaurant for all the family functions. There are other places.


It makes me think of the Mickey Mouse cartoon "Couple Sweaters". We're all Mickey Mouse. We loved Disney when we first saw it, but now that we are wearing it and the irritations are building up there's only so long one can put up with it. It's just a matter of time until you rip the sweater off and never put it back on.

 

[MrPromey]

Ah yes, the doom and gloomer with the Nostradamus call of failure. Not specific on a time, exactly what will happen, when it will happen, why it will happen, or ANY substance, but sure it will be “catastrophic.”

May I just say, LOL!

I believe he is just speaking to the reality of financial markets. We (and Disney) were in just such a scenario a little over a decade ago. Before that, there was the smaller but still impactful dot.com bubble... The financial good times have historically never been permanent. (just like the bad times haven't been, either)

To think that something has magically changed in this regard is what deserves the "lol".

 

[deeevo]

Theme Park Select Pass does not include free parking. Of course it doesn't Disney... why would anyone go with that option without the free parking?

 

[Chef Mickey]

If you are willing to give 3 weeks of your life to Disney World, which is, I mean, enjoy.

And what's wrong with that? I mean, buying 3 rounds of 7 days park hoppers would be $1,665, so it's more like 14 days at Disney for break even (particularly with discounts).

Haha...I get it though. It's not AS good as before, but it is if you go enough. Again, not for everyone. That's fine. You'll save the most if you just skip.

Plus, I'd imagine regular ticket pricing will be increasing also.

 

[RustySpork]

Theme Park Select Pass does not include free parking. Of course it doesn't Disney... why would anyone go with that option without the free parking?

Yes it does.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I believe he is just speaking to the reality of financial markets. We (and Disney) were in just such a scenario a little over a decade ago. Before that, there was the smaller but still impactful dot.com bubble... The financial good times have historically never been permanent. (just like the bad times haven't been, either)

To think that something has magically changed in this regard is what deserves the "lol".

No one disputed markets go up and down. That was never the point. The point was, Disney made $1.4B at the parks in the worst financial market since the 1930s and has only increased since.

And you're wrong. The financial "good times" are by definition permanent over the long term. Nothing was here 200 years ago. Now look at it. Capitalism is winning and cannot be stopped. There are bad times, but the US market has always increased over time so the good overwhelms the bad. Proven with data.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Since everyone knows that the recession was just getting STARTED in 2007 and 2008 and the real effects of spending cuts didn't effect the average family hardest until 2010-2013 it would seem those profit bars show exactly what was stated: Profits plummeted for Disney as a result of the recession. People had to take a break from the "extras" for a while as they tried to recoup losses and rebuild savings.

Don't forget too that Disney vacations are often planned a year or more in advance. So, the tanking of profits in 2010 and beyond were a result of losses felt by families in 2009.

I gave you the lowest number. I didn't study his chart, but Disney "worst" parks number y/y was $1.4B in operating profit and was a 25% decrease. Since 2010, parks and resorts were up every year.

I mean, I can post the 10K if you need it.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Since you can't be troubled to do simple math and you accountant seems to be at lunch I will do it for you. Disney Land had as many as FOURTY PERCENT of their attendance comprised of annual passholders before their astronomical price hikes. Disney World has around 15% (based on an estimate of 50% growth in annual passholders over the past several years). Many argue that for every person who doesn't renew there are two new buyers to replace them. While that's not true at all, there is truth in that some new passholders will come buy. So, even if you anger as much as 25% of annual passholders for WDW into not renewing, you will always have some new AP buyers. Let's say it's enough to replace 10% of those who left. Now overall you have decreased your annual passholders by 15%. Since WDW AP's make up about 15% of the visitors you are decreasing attendance by TWO PERCENT. Disney already has a practice of slow-opening rides (example: one side of Space Mountain is closed for at least the first hour of opening) to artificially inflate ride times and keep more people walking around buying food and overprice crap they wouldn't buy if they were on a ride. You can bet your mansion they will maintain that practice longer if needed until the park fills up mid-day. That's why you will see ride times at Space Mountain at 50 min at 9:30am. Not because there are a ton of people there but because Disney is only running one side of the ride. Just for argument's sake let's say that ride times directly correlated to park attendance. A drop of 2% in attendance would mean Space Mountain's ride time would drop from 50 min to 49 min. Since ride times run on the 5's they wouldn't even drop the time.

I was extremely conservative in my estimates. Most people will argue that SWGE and other new attractions will attract a lot of new passholders, and there will be little to no change in the number of passholders.

Bottom line: This has nothing to do with crowding. Even if Disney brass was ignorant enough to believe it would, it has no chance of working. The reality is this is to increase revenue.

Why are you getting so upset? I have the numbers for park profit, which is all I've ever talked about. It's a 25% decline in profit at its worst. Attendance is entirely different discussion, but the business performed well from a profitability standpoint and has continued to do so. Attendance has also steadily increased, just FYI and has gotten to the point of too many people for my taste. Pulling out a single year or single quarter to make your point is an exercise in futility and just missing the forest through the trees. The global economy was struggling and since then, there are record attendance numbers and profits from Disney Parks. They are firing on all cylinders.

Attendance is a completely different discussion than profitability. Disney's job as a publicly traded company is to manage their business. They did so extremely well.

The original argument was completely about how well Disney managed the worst downturn in 80 years. You did nothing to disprove they did anything but admirably, particularly in comparison to the broader market.

I'll post the official numbers shortly.

 

[MrPromey]

I agree, compared to sports tickets and concerts tickets (which also are underpriced), Disney is very inexpensive. Concerts for just 3 hours at most run $200-300/ seat for top tier acts, which is a good bit more than a whole day of entertainment at WDW

I wouldn't call a whole day at Disney a whole day of entertainment - especially not these days. More and more, it's most of a day standing in lines or dealing with crowds to get somewhere and what probably amounts to about three hours of actual entertainment.

The thing about them continuing to raise prices while crowding doesn't improve, for me anyway, is that I spend more and more to spend most of my day waiting for 2-5 minute experiences and every time I go back, I question the point more and more.

I get the idea of charging to set the tone for a premium experience but last week's trip seemed less premium than the one before it, which seemed less premium than the one before that, etc. The only thing "Premium" I'm really noticing these days is the price.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Parks and Resorts Operating Profit (Source: Disney Annual Reports):

2005: $1.2B
2006: $1.5B
2007: $1.7B
2008: $1.9B
2009: $1.4B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.6B
2012: $1.9B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.7B
2015: $3.0B
2016: $3.3B
2017: $3.8B
2018: $4.5B

As I said, the worst drop y/y was between 2008 and 2009, with a 25% decline. Markets were down over 50% at one point. 2010 was the trough at "only" $1.3B in operating profit and since then has more than tripled to $4.5B. So yes, Disney did admirably well managing the crisis, were still profitable, and only dropped 25% y/y. Since 2010, it's been domination and almost straight up.

Tell me more about Park and Resorts struggling.

And if you want to talk attendance at Disney Parks, that increased every single year including during the Great Recession and is at an all time high according to most recent reporting:

List of amusement park rankings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[yensid67]

All the DIE HARD Fans will defend ANY price increase! Until it starts to hurt them personally they will always defend! I was the same way, I have made quotes for others with no reservations. After this, even though it doesn't effect me directly, I will not quote anyone a price because I don't feel its worth the planning and the FINANCIAL SACRAFICES that the average guest endures to spend a few magical days at Disney. I will still quote them if they are know that the prices are rising almost every month and money is no object for them!
I am sad, because Disney, even though expensive for the average guest, is pushing out the guest who have to save for years and years for one week of Magic. Some people are on FIXED INCOME's and only dream about a Disney vacation, but their dreams are crushed when they go and start pricing the trip and see that the tickets alone will cost a small fortune! I understand they are adding more adding more attractions and experiences, but soon the only people that will be going to Theme Parks(not just Disney) are those in the small percentage of the RICH!
How many actually pay their vacation with CASH and not CREDIT CARDS!? Just wondering how many use their Credit Cards to pay for the trip and souvenirs and then worry about how to pay it off when they get back home!?
P.S. A PRICE INCREASE IS COMEING BEFOERE AUGUST 31ST...MARK MY WORDS!

 

[RustySpork]

Parks and resorts Operating Profit:

2005: $1.2B
2006: $1.5B
2007: $1.7B
2008: $1.9B
2009: $1.4B
2010: $1.3B
2011: $1.6B
2012: $1.9B
2013: $2.2B
2014: $2.7B
2015: $3.0B
2016: $3.3B
2017: $3.8B
2018: $4.5B

Tell me more about Park and Resorts struggling.

Well, they'd struggle a lot less if they hired people from this forum to run the show!

 

[MrPromey]

And you're wrong. The financial "good times" are by definition permanent over the long term. Nothing was here 200 years ago. Now look at it. Capitalism is winning and cannot be stopped. There are bad times, but the US market has always increased over time. Proven with data.

I'm wrong? Really?

Tell that to the people over 65 who lost 90% of the value in their retirement accounts the year they were laid off back in 2007.

I get what you're saying from a historian's point of view but people go broke and never recover over bad times. Companies that expand too much during good times without planning for problems go out of business during bad times. The machine may continue to churn on but plenty of people and companies can get chewed up in the gears.

I don't think Disney will be going out of business any time soon but considering huge cutbacks were made and hotel rooms were literally moth-balled during the last recession, Disney is not immune - that's all I'm saying.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I'm wrong? Really?

Tell that to the people over 65 who lost 90% of the value in their retirement accounts the year they were laid off back in 2007.

I get what you're saying from a historian's point of view but people go broke and never recover over bad times. Companies that expand too much during good times without planning for problems go out of business during bad times. The machine may continue to churn on but plenty of people and companies can get chewed up in the gears.

I don't think Disney will be going out of business any time soon but considering huge cutbacks were made and hotel rooms were literally moth-balled during the last recession, Disney is not immune - that's all I'm saying.

Yeah, you're absolutely wrong. Look at markets over time. It's just data. You are totally wrong. Now if you try to time the market and buy junk, you'll get the results you'd expect when you don't know what you're doing.

You don't "lose money" if you don't sell. Who lost 90% of the value in their retirement? Where do you get that number? The markets weren't down 90% and came roaring back with a vengeance. I can't manage your portfolio but if you're exposed to markets at retirement age and have no other means of supporting yourself, that is a personal money management issue and has no relevance to the dominance of financial markets.

No one is immune, but I posted the numbers. Disney still performed well and has since had almost 10 years of record after record at the parks. 2 years of bad doesn't counteract 8 years of recrods.

That's what you people that miss out on stock market gains always miss.

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

The corrections happen, give you a buying opportunity and then they are over with people missing out because they sold at the bottom and/or are too scared to buy stocks. That's how you underperform.

Disney stayed the course during that time and they are reaping the benefits today.

 

[Joeamc]

Fair enough. For those wondering:

"And what we're trying to the basically is 2 things, is to price according to demand, and in managing demand, try to basically spread out attendance so that we can preserve or improve the guest experience; it's that simple."

So I was too broad when I said "decrease attendance." They want to decrease attendance at peak times and increase attendance during slower times.

I agree. That is why they introduced the "Date based Pricing structure" on tickets raising pricing on high demand days (Christmas week) and lowering daily ticket prices on slower weeks (mid Jan for example).

 

[FigmentFreak]

They WANT a decrease in attendance. Iger literally said so on one of the recent earnings calls. Managing attendance through price is exactly the goal, otherwise the guest experience goes to hell with the crowds.

Iger needs to remember the saying "Careful what you wish for" when stating things like that.

 

[deeevo]

Yes it does.

View attachment 382422

I blame my wife... she is the one who pointed it out. I take no responsibility for this post. Thanks for pointing it out.