Lot to unpack here, and I apologize for the off-topic nature of this post, but I think it's worth writing...
While it's certainly possiible that we may never get a vaccine, it seems that there's mounting evidence that we will be able to acheive the vaccine. Yes, we don't have any current coronoavirus vaccines, but there are several reasons for this:
- Most coronaviruses are just nuicanses, e.g. common colds that aren't particularly dangerous. There hasn't been much incentive to do research into vaccines for coronaviruses that just cause a cold, and therefore there hasn't been much research at all into this area.
- The two other coronaviruses that have been dangerous and lethal, SARS and MERS, were not around long enough to allow for a vaccine to be developed. There has been ongoing research into this since the pandemics of both of these viruses, but it's been slow due to the fact that there's no way to effectively test a SARS or MERES vaccine (since no one has it).
In regards to the novel coronavirus, there are several things working in favor of an eventual vaccine:
- The fact that several vaccine candidates have been shown to produce the same antibodies and T-Cells as people who have fought off the disease.
- The fact that there are well over 100 different vaccine candidates in development and testing right now, and the entire resources of the world are focused on this problem.
- The fact that we have newer technologies (albeit unproven) that may allow us to attack the novel coronavirus in a way that hasn't been done before (using RNA-based vaccines, for example)
- The fact that our knowledge and understanding of virology and the makeup of viruses has grown leaps and bounds even over what we knew a decade ago.
So yes, while it's still possible that we won't find a vaccine that preventes COVID, I think it's more likely that we will. What is an open question, however, is how effective it will be. Will it be something that bestows lifelong immunity, or will it be the type of vaccine where the immunization lasts 1-3 years and we need a booster every year or two? Hard to tell right now, there's reason to favor either of these scenarios playing out.
It depends on what you mean by "live with this". If you mean live with the novel coronavirus in absence of a vaccine in some way, that's a possibility. If you mean live as we are right now, I find that highly unlikely. Let's take the scenario where a novel coronavirus vaccine never becomes available. There still is all the research going into therapies/treatments for COVID that will make it much less dangerous and hardly lethal. Already we have a drug which reduces mortality by a third in severly-ill patients, and a drug that reduces infection time by several days in more moderate patients. And there's evidence in a bunch of other therapies and treatments as well. For example, there's a phase 1 study that shows that a small dose of radiation to the lungs (far less than what is needed for a single dose of radiation used for cancer treatment, for example) may in fact have high success in preventing most people from dying. It was a small study and it needs further verification through a real broad clinical trial, but it's promising. There's also monoclonal antibodies that, if given early, may be able to significantly reduce the effects of the disease before they ever get bad. By the end of the year, we may be in a situation where, if you feel sick, you get a COVID test, and if you're positive, you get a perscription to a drug coctail that effectively makes COVID no worse than the common cold or maybe a mild flu.
So while it's possible we'll have to deal with the novel coronavlrus for the rest of our lives, or for a while until a vaccine is developed (if it doesn't go as quickly as hoped), there are other things going on which will likely lessen the impact of COVID on the vast majority of people (and possibly even most of those who are severely immunocompromised).
That's not really how the immune system works... It either knows how to fight off a pathogen or it doesn't. That doesn't mean you might not get a little sick if you have antibodies present that are wearing off, but that's more in the case of a reinfection.
What is another possibility, though, is that the cornoavirus will mutate to a point where it becomes less dangerous or lethal. It's happened before for viruses and there are some who theorize that most cornoaviruses that have caused the common cold started out causing disease more like COVID and eventually mutated into a less harmful virus. But that's less likely, I think, than finding treatments/vaccines.
In order of likelyhood, I see the following scenarios:
- Vaccine developed, lasts for a short time, requires regular boosters
- Vaccine developed, lifelong immunity
- No vaccine, but enough theraputic treatments to make it non-dangerous if treated
- Virus mutates to a less dangerous virus
- Situation stays as it is now for a long time