Or here:
https://io9.gizmodo.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable
The short answer is, it depends on a number of factors, but a rule of thumb seems to be that the film needs to make twice its production budget globally. For the longer answer, read on....
And it used to be true across the board that the opening weekend was when the biggest percentage of profits went to the studios. In the past, studios "strong-armed exhibitors into these front-loaded deals, wherein the overwhelming majority of the opening weekend take goes to the studio," says David Mumpower with Box Office Prophets. "As much as 90% of that revenue is theirs." The theaters only make money by selling "overpriced snacks" to audiences during that first week — but in the following weeks, the theater's cut goes up. Eventually, by the fourth week, the studio's cut has fallen to around 52 percent in most cases. But after a bunch of theater chains declared bankruptcy in the early 2000s, these frontloaded deals started to fall out of fashion, says Doug Stone with BoxOfficeAnalyst.com....
According to the book The Hollywood Economist by Edward Jay Epstein, studios take in about 40 percent of the revenue from overseas release — and after expenses, they're lucky if they take in 15 percent of that number.
Or here:
https://theweek.com/articles/647394/when-buy-movie-ticket-where-does-that-money
Movie Studios — Arrangements vary, but the movie studio usually ends up with about 60 percent of the proceeds from American box offices. Overseas, the number is usually less, anywhere from 20 percent to 40 percent depending on the film distribution arrangements, agreements, and other costs associated with foreign distribution (not to mention piracy).
Or here:
https://bombreport.com/articles/when-does-a-movie-break-even-at-the-box-office/
Movie theaters don’t play films for free. Theaters are not glorified snack, soda and popcorn dispensaries who receive pennies per ticket sold, they command on average 45% of the ticket price from the major studios and far more from independent distributors. When Icon and Newmarket were negotiating with theater chains over the exhibition fees for The Passion of the Christ, they were able to secure “studio terms” (about 55%). Once the picture pulled in mountains of cash, Regal Cinemas demanded to keep 66% of the ticket price, as per their corporate policy of allotting only 34% to small distributors. The result was a lawsuit that settled in Icon and Newmarket’s favor. Keep the basic 55% calculation in mind when you see box office numbers.
The days of the sliding scale are long over, where studios could demand most of the ticket price for an expected blockbuster. In fact, Disney tried to strong arm theaters into a 65% share of the ticket price for Iron Man 3, but every theater chain called bull**** and cut off advanced sales until Disney folded.
There is also a misconception that the US domestic market is the center of the box office universe and that could not be further from the truth. While it does differ in some territories, for the most part the ticket price is evenly split between the distributor and the cinema — with the major exception being China, where foreign distributors keep just 25%.
So... I'm quite comfortable relying on people reporting on industry standards than someone not in the biz on a forum telling me I'm wrong. Sorry, but I'll keep the 50% ballpark figure as a rule of thumb.
