Anaheim GardenWalk Development Status report - 10/17/2017

[Deleted member 107043]

It really is amazing that Disney has not considered buying that land.

Apparently they did before AGW was built and passed on it. At one point Disney had planned to develop a parking garage there as shown in the upper right corner of the DLR model below. This garage and the accompanying peoplemover terminal would have presumably linked the 3rd theme park with the rest of DLR at some point in the future. One could assume that this is another bit of evidence supporting the idea that Disney has abandoned plans to build another theme park nearby.

 

[Disney Irish]

Speaking of Gardenwalk, it seems to be up for grabs again.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/01/09/anaheims-gardenwalk-mall-on-the-market-again/

Just spit-balling here (or more wishing)...

If Disney were to buy GWM they can turn it into DTD East. Connect it to the Pumbaa parking structure via a bridge similar to Disneyland Dr bridge. It would have no impact on the Harbor businesses because its not going over Harbor, so they couldn't have an argument. Then would connect DTD East to a new 3rd gate on Toy Story lot.

It would be the way I would go anyways....

 

[Darkbeer1]

No way AGW will be torn down, from today's OC Register.

>>Arcturus and two other investors bought GardenWalk in 2012 and managed to increase occupancy from a low of 50 percent to about 67 percent today, according to news reports and CBRE’s listing.

​

Although restaurants along Katella Avenue such as Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. and California Pizza Kitchen have done well, “The problem has always been the interior of the shopping center,” which can’t been seen from the street, city spokesman Mike Lyster said.

​

But he expects GardenWalk’s prospects to improve, with the 466-room J.W. Marriott expected to open by 2020 and a recent expansion of the city’s convention center now in use. Even Disney’s planned Star Wars land could help draw the adult crowd that some GardenWalk businesses are targeted to.
“After what was really a tough start for them, this is kind of the most positive developments they’ve seen in a few years,” Lyster said.

​

The price of the 2012 sale was not not disclosed, but the Orange County Business Journal has reported it as $73 million. The center’s replacement cost – a tool for estimating the value of commercial properties – was pegged at $280 million when it was last sold.<<

This is basically a owner who is fed up with the city's dealing to get more tenants and expand. The costs have been quite high lately, so they hope to make a small profit and take on a new project.

But one heck of a deal, about 25% of the total value. Doubt Disney will buy it, due to the current city council. Westgate is ready to go one the Timeshares,

 

[DLR92]

No way AGW will be torn down, from today's OC Register.

>>Arcturus and two other investors bought GardenWalk in 2012 and managed to increase occupancy from a low of 50 percent to about 67 percent today, according to news reports and CBRE’s listing.

Although restaurants along Katella Avenue such as Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. and California Pizza Kitchen have done well, “The problem has always been the interior of the shopping center,” which can’t been seen from the street, city spokesman Mike Lyster said.

But he expects GardenWalk’s prospects to improve, with the 466-room J.W. Marriott expected to open by 2020 and a recent expansion of the city’s convention center now in use. Even Disney’s planned Star Wars land could help draw the adult crowd that some GardenWalk businesses are targeted to.
“After what was really a tough start for them, this is kind of the most positive developments they’ve seen in a few years,” Lyster said.

The price of the 2012 sale was not not disclosed, but the Orange County Business Journal has reported it as $73 million. The center’s replacement cost – a tool for estimating the value of commercial properties – was pegged at $280 million when it was last sold.<<

This is basically a owner who is fed up with the city's dealing to get more tenants and expand. The costs have been quite high lately, so they hope to make a small profit and take on a new project.

But one heck of a deal, about 25% of the total value. Doubt Disney will buy it, due to the current city council. Westgate is ready to go one the Timeshares,

I love to see Garden Walk with more tenants.

I'm not sure if Disney would even consider purchasing this again. I can't see Disney having interest of this site either.

 

[Disney Irish]

No way AGW will be torn down

If, and of course its a big if, Disney were to buy it I assume they wouldn't do a complete tear down. It would likely be they turn it into a DTD East, as I mentioned in my previous post. That would be more of a rebranding with some minor redesign. Plus if anyone can get occupancy rates up it would be Disney. And it would solve the major issue that is how to connect the rest of the resort to a future 3rd gate on Toy Story lot.

Anyways, pipe dreams....

 

[Disney Irish]

I love to see Garden Walk with more tenants.

I'm not sure if Disney would even consider purchasing this again. I can't see Disney having interest of this site either.

One thing that could be done if Disney just wanted the land would be to purchase it. And let a management company run it until the time they want to develop it. If further expansion is to happen in Anaheim Disney will need land to do so. So anytime something comes up for purchase in the resort district its not hard to think Disney would have at least some interest.

At some point in the future, maybe distant future, I wouldn't be surprised if Disney had purchased large sections of the resort district they currently don't own.

Now whether they actually buy GWM or not will be interesting to watch.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Just to clarify, whoever buys the property will be the land owner, and operation manager for the complex.

But many contracts have been signed, including long term land options, and the tenants contracts.

Many of the long term options are contained in the operating agreement with the city.

So Westgate has the rights to the timeshares, and the builder of the JW Marriott has the rights to the two hotel sites.

So Disney is handicapped in what they can do with the property, and any change of use besides the current agreed upon complex.

 

[mickEblu]

Are we Insinuating that Disney is NOT considering buying the GardenWalk? What am I missing here? Why wouldn’t they jump at the chance?

 

[Deleted member 107043]

Are we Insinuating that Disney is NOT considering buying the GardenWalk? What am I missing here? Why wouldn’t they jump at the chance?

It's simple. Anaheim currently is not on the radar for long-term growth and investment for P&R. Florida and Asia are. They'll continue to add and update things from time to time, and SW:GE will be the big headliner for several years, however compared to other Disney properties DLR is kind of just chugging along fueled by a rabid AP fan base. Of course this is conjecture on my part, but I've seen no significant evidence that says otherwise.

 

[mickEblu]

It's simple. Anaheim currently is not on the radar for long-term growth and investment for P&R. Florida and Asia are. This is conjecture on my part, but I've seen no significant evidence that says otherwise.

This could be true but plans could always change and the price tag is a drop in the bucket for them to have that security and keep options open.

 

[Darkbeer1]

As in life, there are politics involved with the purchase. Let alone the city, but with all the contracts and obligations that come with the property.

Many properties, like condos and timeshares come on the market for a penny, just to allow the owner to get out of the future obligations.

 

[D.Silentu]

I suppose the thought of Disney purchasing Gardenwalk would seemingly kindle the flickering hope that there will be a third park someday. Against odds I do keep my fingers crossed.

 

[Darkbeer1]

I suppose the thought of Disney purchasing Gardenwalk would seemingly kindle the flickering hope that there will be a third park someday. Against odds I do keep my fingers crossed.

I understand the fan says, please buy it.

But it just doesn't make sense, especially today.

Now, in the future and a much more friendly city council that would allow changes to the development agreement, you still have the current lease owners that have a lot of rights that just won't away, and they would know that Disney has to buy them out, so it wouldn't be cheap.

Disney has to do other things first, such as trying to find a way to get the Eastern Gateway project approved, and built. Plus address the serious lake of parking for guests and CM's/employees..

Heck, just the costs to building California is tough. Disney is lucky with the land they already own inside the city's "Disneyland Resort Specific Plan", which is exempt from many of the new rules...

Here is an example

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html

>>
Further contributing to the poverty problem is California’s housing crisis. More than four in 10 households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2015. A shortage of available units has driven prices ever higher, far above income increases. And that shortage is a direct outgrowth of misguided policies.

​

“Counties and local governments have imposed restrictive land-use regulations that drove up the price of land and dwellings,” explains analyst Wendell . “Middle-income households have been forced to accept lower standards of living while the less fortunate have been driven into poverty by the high cost of housing.” The California Environmental Quality Act, passed in 1971, is one example; it can add $1 million to the cost of completing a housing development, says Todd Williams, an Oakland attorney who chairs the Wendel Rosen Black & Dean land-use group. CEQA costs have been known to shut down entire homebuilding projects. CEQA reform would help increase housing supply, but there’s no real movement to change the law.<<

 

[D.Silentu]

I understand the fan says, please buy it.

But it just doesn't make sense, especially today.

Now, in the future and a much more friendly city council that would allow changes to the development agreement, you still have the current lease owners that have a lot of rights that just won't away, and they would know that Disney has to buy them out, so it wouldn't be cheap.

Disney has to do other things first, such as trying to find a way to get the Eastern Gateway project approved, and built. Plus address the serious lake of parking for guests and CM's/employees..

Heck, just the costs to building California is tough. Disney is lucky with the land they already own inside the city's "Disneyland Resort Specific Plan", which is exempt from many of the new rules...

Here is an example

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html

>>
Further contributing to the poverty problem is California’s housing crisis. More than four in 10 households spent more than 30% of their income on housing in 2015. A shortage of available units has driven prices ever higher, far above income increases. And that shortage is a direct outgrowth of misguided policies.

“Counties and local governments have imposed restrictive land-use regulations that drove up the price of land and dwellings,” explains analyst Wendell ***. “Middle-income households have been forced to accept lower standards of living while the less fortunate have been driven into poverty by the high cost of housing.” The California Environmental Quality Act, passed in 1971, is one example; it can add $1 million to the cost of completing a housing development, says Todd Williams, an Oakland attorney who chairs the Wendel Rosen Black & Dean land-use group. CEQA costs have been known to shut down entire homebuilding projects. CEQA reform would help increase housing supply, but there’s no real movement to change the law.<<

I really appreciate the insight that you bring, it's always good to keep one foot on the ground while looking to the skies and I always come away having learned something. I do feel a bit sheepish though, when I said "fingers crossed" I was referring to my hope for a third gate. I was reflecting on how, twice now, the sale of Gardenwalk seems to be viewed as a figurative gateway to making that a reality.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Disney (and other Theme Park Companies) are looking at Asia and the Middle East (aka Dubai) as a great opportunity. Let alone large populations of potential customers, but the key, governments basically allowing them to buy large portions of land at a low costs, with few regulations that go with it.

Florida is also fairly business friendly to Theme Park development, and has less regulations that many other states, along with lower taxes.

California on the other hand is not business friendly at all currently. Let alone the cost and availability of land, but all the regulations that go with it. Plus the costs of operating them, taxes and wages. Here is a good example.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-jackson-california-poverty-20180114-story.html

>>

Looking to help poor and low-income residents, California lawmakers recently passed a measure raising the minimum wage from $10 an hour to $15 an hour by 2022 — but a higher minimum wage will do nothing for the 60% of Californians who live in poverty and don’t have jobs. And research indicates that it could cause many who do have jobs to lose them. A Harvard University study found evidence that “higher minimum wages increase overall exit rates for restaurants” in the Bay Area, where more than a dozen cities and counties, including San Francisco, have changed their minimum-wage ordinances in the last five years. “Estimates suggest that a one-dollar increase in the minimum wage leads to a 14% increase in the likelihood of exit for a 3.5-star restaurant (which is the median rating),” the report says. These restaurants are a significant source of employment for low-skilled and entry-level workers.<<​

While Disney has some good paying jobs, many of them are the low-skilled, entry level service entry jobs. But Disney is headed in the same direction as other businesses in things like self-ordering stations, scanning your own FastPass, etc.​

DCA picked the World of Color for a very good reason, after seeing how much it costs to operating just one showing of Fantasmic!, Disney needed to find a much lower cost show option with a WOW factor. And they did it. Too bad they didn't spend enough money on the viewing areas as they did the show itself.​

So California will remain a two park destination. Will you see add-ons and improvements. Of course yes, but it will remain on the current Disney owned properties for the foreseeable future.​

 

[SuddenStorm]

Disney needed to find a much lower cost show option with a WOW factor. And they did it.

Completely off topic, but that's very debatable

 

[SuddenStorm]

Any potential third park aside, I'm completely confused why Disney wouldn't at least try to purchase the land. Even with all the politics and hurdles involved, wouldn't it still be in Disney's best interest to own the land, in case they need to do something with it years down the road?

It's my understanding that historically Disney has had difficulty purchasing land around the park, so I'd imagine there's a decent internal debate going on in Burbank trying to decide if this purchase is Disney's best interest, but my uninformed, out of the loop, gut instinct is telling me that it is.

 

[Darkbeer1]

Any potential third park aside, I'm completely confused why Disney wouldn't at least try to purchase the land. Even with all the politics and hurdles involved, wouldn't it still be in Disney's best interest to own the land, in case they need to do something with it years down the road?

It's my understanding that historically Disney has had difficulty purchasing land around the park, so I'd imagine there's a decent internal debate going on in Burbank trying to decide if this purchase is Disney's best interest, but my uninformed, out of the loop, gut instinct is telling me that it is.

It was debated back in the 1990's, when Disney was thinking WestCot, and the answer was more than likely yes. Then came Disneyland Paris, and reworking the plan to DCA, and the answer was NO!

Then Pointe Anaheim got stalled, and Disney looked again, the answer was once again no, and we got GardenWalk.

Then GardenWalk went Bankrupt in 2012,and Disney once again seriously looked into it, and decided no.

This time, on the heels of the Eastern Gateway project, and having to come up with the Western project instead to avoid needing to work with the city council, Disney got to look at the offer prior to others, had a quick look and told the current owner, we feel your pain in dealing with the city, and do not wish to take on the fight at this time, as we need to stay out of the city politics while we prepare to work quietly behind the scenes to get a more friendly council in the November 2018 election. There was/is no debate, the decision was made last year when they shifted gears to the Western Project.

 

[DLR92]

It sad that Garden Walk failed initially. I was hoping one day it could have better merchants. I never liked what Downtown Disney offered for retail. I hope JW Marriott can help the mall.

But I don't see Disney point of buying when one want to develop a JW Marriot brand and the last space pad for another hotel,and another intentions of of a time share either. What space left can they do with no room for a Disney hotel, not even a DVC. When they can develop more hotels on the toy story lot...I think that the future of Toy Story lot. LOL
I can't see Disney wanting to operate another mall with Downtown Disney having problems with retention of tenants.

 

[Travel Junkie]

As much as I would like to see a 3rd gate it is really low on Disney's radar so GardenWalk doesn't make sense unless it was basically given to them.

They are focused on expanding internationally right now. They had to invest in Orlando because Universal was beginning to take market share from them. Potter is successful in Hollywood but hasn't affected Disneyland at all. Better to hold the 3rd gate land in their back pocket in case they need it somewhere down the line should customers begin to take their business elsewhere.

Plans and potential plans for DL and DCA should keep them busy investing in Anaheim without having to take on a new park anyway.