Which 'Idol' Will Sell More Records?
By Bill Keveney and Edna Gundersen
USA Today
LOS ANGELES (May 23) — Pop culture's water-cooler obsession comes to a boil Tuesday as two finalists contend to be the next American Idol.
The unusually pretty Katharine McPhee and the pretty unusual Taylor Hicks will perform three songs each for about 30 million viewers when Fox's American Idol, the nation's No. 1 show, moves to Hollywood's Kodak Theatre for the finale at 8 p.m. (live ET/tape-delayed PT). Viewer votes will determine a winner on Wednesday.
They offer an intriguing contrast: a voice-trained California pop-singing beauty vs. a gray-haired Alabama soul man. Although the Idol title would be a crowning glory for either singer, both Taylor and Katharine, like previous final pairs, are virtually guaranteed albums.
Each faces challenges in capitalizing on the Idol fanfare. What genre will best showcase their gifts? How best to market their images and wares?
Both singers have ardent fans extolling their TV candidacies, but that hardly ensures success in the crowded, competitive music industry. Entertainment experts interviewed by USA TODAY view Taylor as the more substantial talent, but they don't spare either singer the kind of critiques that would make blunt judge Simon Cowell proud.
Against the gravitational laws of television, Idol's audience rose a remarkable 14% in its fifth season and became a bigger phenomenon, spawning saturation media coverage and online frenzy.
The season's biggest lure, besides the traditional serving of bitters from Cowell, was the final 12's deep talent pool. With no shoo-in this year, Katharine and Taylor are — to borrow from another TV competition — survivors.
After the two perform tonight, viewers will decide, via phone and text-message votes, whether Idol steers back toward mainstream pop or even farther afield from last year's winner, country songbird Carrie Underwood.
Viewers have a stark choice between 22-year-old Katharine and 29-year-old Taylor. Stylistically, she's a pliable garden-variety pop singer; he's a gritty roadhouse pro, initially deemed unsuitable by Cowell. Visually, it's Gray vs. Anatomy, with the more-salt-than-pepper Taylor, an anomaly in this youth-skewed competition, facing voluptuous Katharine.
The fans' decision means more than bragging rights. Except for Clay Aiken, second to Ruben Studdard in 2003, winners' recordings handily outsell those of runners-up, though the franchise is robust across the board, with sales of solo and compilation albums exceeding 33 million copies globally.
Albums will play to strengths
Moments after Wednesday's elimination show, the two singers offered their thoughts to USA TODAY on their potential albums.
Katharine favors a pop sound, along with ballads and slower songs, especially after the ovations she received for Over the Rainbow. Beyond that, "I really don't know, and that's the excitement of it all," says the Los Angeles resident, who also plans to act. "I get to create and come up with something that the audience may not expect."
Taylor, the bar-band troubadour from Birmingham, Ala., won't disappoint his ardent fan base, nicknamed the Soul Patrol. He plans to make a pop/soul album and isn't worried that music handlers will transform him: "I didn't change the gray hair, and I don't think I'm going to change the music, either."
Their post-Idol careers begin tonight, when each performs a new tailor-made song to be released soon as singles. Iain Pirie, the Idol executive who oversees the selection of those tunes, says producers will take different approaches in helping them record.
"Taylor has a soulful, rootsy background. We're looking forward to making a great record that embraces all (his) influences," Pirie says. "Katharine has a broader style. There are so many different avenues to explore. ... We're going to enjoy focusing in on what the character of her record should be."
Pirie's observations were supported by fans waiting to see the singers outside the Idol set more than an hour after last Wednesday's show. Some had attended a taping of another TV show just to get on the studio lot.
"We need more music like Taylor's. It's time for blues and soul. A change is coming," says Nancy Lynch, 53, of Winchester, Calif., part of a Soul Patrol group.
Sarah Slain and Taylor Seebold, 10-year-old girls who flew from San Francisco with their mothers, explained Katharine's appeal. "She looks happy when she's singing. She has a really good voice, and she's really pretty," Seebold says.
Not surprisingly, the music experts offered tougher assessments.
"Taylor is not the quintessential American Idol, but he has a uniqueness that makes him stand out," says Nancy Rainford, former agent and manager and author of How to Agent Your Agent. "He's an odd choice. He'll never be a Mick Jagger, but he could have longevity along the lines of Joe Cocker if he makes the right choices and gets the right producers. If someone tries to make him go Hollywood, the audience is going to hate him. He needs to keep it real and down-home and funky. He can be a little goofy, but that will subside."
Rainford envisions Katharine in touring productions of Beauty and the Beast or Peter Pan.
"If they were still stunt-casting Grease on Broadway, she'd be perfect. She's pure musical theater," she says. "I don't think she has any grasp on what her talent is. She keeps singing these bluesy, sexy songs, and they don't ring true. She wants to be Mariah Carey, and she's never going to be."
Although Katharine doesn't have the pipes, she has the packaging, music consultant Tom Vickers says.
"She's absolutely stunning, and that's the most obvious marketing aspect in moving her forward," he says. "When you have a woman graced with that much natural beauty, you obviously take advantage of it in promoting her. She needs to find songs that she doesn't merely sing but also feels. She's got a lovely voice, but there's an emotional disconnect. I'd look for material that resonates with her, and use that face to sell it."
Taylor may be a harder sell, Vickers says. "He's not a matinee idol, and he's overweight. For someone constantly waving his fist and yelling 'Soul patrol,' he can't dance to save his life. But his fans love his quirky charm. Marketing him is a tightrope walk. I'd be careful not to straitjacket him as a retro-soul artist. He can't follow Michael McDonald and do a Motown tribute. He needs to establish himself first rather than risk pigeonholing himself with a covers album."
Vickers gives Taylor a better shot at lasting fame than Kat, though his challenge lies in building an audience without a hit single as a catalyst. "If he makes a cohesive album with a compelling vibe, it could be the one people have to have."
Music consultant Dennis O'Donnell likens Taylor to a modern-day Kenny Rogers. "Taylor could be a pop-country guy, and that's not a bad thing," he says. "It's right down the middle. If he gets a hit, it will stay around awhile. Though he's awkward and sort of oafish, he has charm and he doesn't have the air of an actor. What I'm reading is that he knows he's got the tiger by the tail. All he needs is good songs. People already like him."
Katharine, on the other hand, doesn't exhibit the drive to win, "but seems to think she deserves it," says O'Donnell, predicting a failed music career and possible future in commercials. "She's cold and artificial. When she sings, she's looking for the camera and seems to be assuming a character. She attempts the vocal gymnastics of Celine Dion . When people hear Celine, they know it's real. Katharine seems manufactured. I think she'll fade."
In Katharine, what appears to be a blank slate may be simply a lack of self-awareness, maturity and seasoning, says Phil Gallo, associate editor at Daily Variety.
"I'm sure she'll be a vastly different person in three or four years," he says. "I still don't have a handle on who she is after all these weeks. She's not as strong a personality as Kelly" (Clarkson) — the first Idol winner in 2002 — "or Carrie. I don't know what she wants to do. She is blessed with a nice voice, but she needs media and stage training. She's not a natural performer."
Nonetheless, with the right machinery in place — a bouncy pop tune or sultry ballad, a slick producer, a promotional juggernaut — Kat could have a chart-buster, Gallo says. "The crazy thing is, I think Taylor has more talent, a better voice, and a better sense of self. But McPhee could probably have a bigger hit record, though it will be more expensive to make," he says.
They'll have to move fast
For the Idol reality show to be a springboard to idol reality requires visibility and speed, he says. Whether lasting success is ensured remains uncertain, even for inaugural champ Kelly. An Idol crown launched debut Thankful, and a hit single, Since U Been Gone, propelled second disc Breakaway. The third may prove whether fans support the artist or the accoutrements.
"These people need to make a record every 15 to 18 months," Gallo says. "A guy like Taylor understands the need to strap on a guitar, get in the van and keep going. The danger I see for Taylor winning is that he may take too long recording. He needs to shout 'Soul patrol,' hit the studio and walk out a week later with the tapes."
Even without a radio-aimed single, a Taylor album is likely to get airplay, Gallo says. In the current climate of payola investigations, programmers fearful of playing new artists will spin new tunes by the seasoned soulster, a known entity with a high curiosity factor.
"Nobody will accuse them of wrongdoing," he says, adding that while Taylor's over-30 fans aren't in a demographic of avid music buyers, their passion will drive them to record stores.
"If he wins, it helps set up Idol for the next two or three years. He's not somebody who wants to jump in the fabrication line and be told to sing this or look like that. A lot of people thought the show was an extension of the boy-band phenomenon. Taylor is really the one who's broken the model."