Now if we want to prime the rumor pump, Jim Hill had an article yesterday about why the official 40th anniversary events are so muted, and it included this little gem:
The full article can be found
here.
If we're to give any credence to Hill's tease, and believe that a fifth park will be open by the 50th anniversary in 2021, well, then you'd expect that to be getting started roughly when Avatarland construction is scheduled to wrap up. Which means that there will be major construction under way pretty much constantly for the next decade, implying that anything significant for Epcot is a ways off.
Can't see it happening.
I have no insider knowledge, but with two parks widely considered underdeveloped, it makes more sense to concentrate development in those areas. 1 more park means more time on buses and in parking lots, and less time in shops and restaurants. That's less revenue. Granted, it's worthy of a sharp ticket price hike, but that's going to take an absolute fortune to build. Spend too little, and you have a weak park that's going to get ignored because there are better things to do. Spend too much, and you're going to be waiting a really, really long time before you recoup the investment.
Land restraints are quickly becoming an issue, as well. It might seem surprising, but when you sell of property to build Celebration and Golden Oaks, that tends to happen.
Maybe a fifth park can happen in the long run, but it's going to be a ways off. Still, I have a feeling that the WDW theme park market is saturated. There are enough parks. They can fill those parks out, but building another one is just going to cannibalize the other four.
Keep in mind, a new park brings not only the cost of the fifth gate, but also expansions elsewhere.
Let's say they build a cheapy fifth gate, DCA style. No one goes. Waste of money.
If they build a super expensive park like Tokyo DisneySea, what's going to happen is that people are going to drop parks like Animal Kingdom with lower attraction counts. Congratulations, they've just spent a ton of money and attendance increases resort-wide haven't justified it. Granted, all new parks are going to cut into attendance at the other four, but long term, they want to increase resort-wide attendance by a big enough number to justify a massive capital investment.
Now, like I said, I have zero inside information. There might be actual statistics on the inside that show that, yes, a fifth gate would be beneficial to the entire resort. Jim Hill would have a much clearer idea of what's going on on the inside, simply because he knows people and I don't. But rational thinking leads me to believe that a fifth gate is not in the near future, and probably not even in the long term picture.
Maybe I'm just not thinking of the right definition of a fifth gate.
To satisfy both sides of the argument I am seeing here, why don't they make the "5th park" a Pixar themed park and refurb DHS to be a true "animation-only" park. I mean that's what DHS is about right: The good old days and what not? So why not actually theme DHS around the "good old days" of animation, when Mickey was a work of art and not a work of computer clip art. All the kids who are growing up on Pixar would be satisfied by the new park.
I don't like it. Pixar is already part of the existing parks. It would not be worth it to move them. I feel like people segregate Pixar from the rest of Disney. Really, what difference does it make if a character is CGI or hand drawn? Quality is all that counts.
As for turning DHS into animation, I think animation should have a bigger presence (in terms of actual attractions, rather than just names like Animation Courtyard and Pixar Place), but it shouldn't shut out live action.
Another issue with a fifth gate: How do you make a broad enough concept to make a theme park, while still making sure that it does not overlap with an existing park? This issue already affects the existing parks. I've seen arguments for a Tron attraction in Magic Kingdom, Epcot, and Hollywood Studios. Other attractions face that same issue of "Where does it fit?".