A Spirited Summer Special (AKA Phil Holmes Takes Anaheim!)

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
It's perfectly symbolic of Disney Parks (TM)

I think there is detail that is important...that is absolutely essential to what one would expect for a Disney parks experience. No one is going to convince me that themed napkins (beyond the disney parks logo) falls into this category. :)
 

shortstop

Well-Known Member
I think there is detail that is important...that is absolutely essential to a Disney parks experience. No one is going to convince me that themed napkins (beyond the disney parks logo) falls into this category. :)
I don't think anyone would argue that the napkins themselves are the most important thing in the world. It's just a microcosm of the declining by degrees mentality. A tangible example.
 

Ignohippo

Well-Known Member
Yup. Look, the market can only supports so many upscale retailers and Millenia has plenty and Saks closed there... Nordstrom couldn't make it at The Florida Mall because O-Town is an outlet mall/Walmart type of market. These stores are in very pricey leases and I don't see half of them there in three years. Locals are not going to go there to shop when barely anything can be had that you can't get elsewhere without dealing with the typical Disney hassles like crowds.

Dining too is soon going to be too overbuilt. Right now you have two majors closed in Fulton's and PH and STK just opened. You may even get a bounce because DIS raised prices and because Flying Fish has been closed all year. But I just don't see all of those lasting. Splitsville is struggling quite a bit I'm told.


I've been saying this since the retailer list started leaking out. They've got the demographics all wrong. Most of these stores will be gone in 18-36 months. The place is going to be a ghost town in a few years.

Everything about Disney Springs screams Anaheim - from the retail mix, to the restaurant selection, to the architecture. This isn't L.A. folks. These stores may work fine with the Southern California cash flow, but Brazilian tourists (who are scrounging the outlet malls for good deals on luggage) are not going to be buying $3,000 watches. A few those stores is a great idea. A whole mall of it, without anything to draw tourists in, is a recipe for disaster.

People coming to Disney want an EXPERIENCE. The new additions to Disney Springs are as bland as it gets (just like the stupid name). There's nothing at all to get excited about. It'll be interesting to see what the next overhaul of the place will be like in 3 to 5 years.

Isn't it just a microcosm of the current Disney management? At CityWalk, Universal steps up to the counter with their own cash and builds a totally new and exciting concept around a gigantic steampunk chocolate factory. The best Disney can do with their mountains of amazing IPs is vague references to Indiana Jones in a hanger and $175 amphibious vehicle rides.
 
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KevinYee

Well-Known Member
The Declining by Degrees concept isn't a single thing, but rather a conflation of multiple things (a slow dying-off of several dozen intricate details in every visual sweep, stuff no one notices consciously, but given enough volume really makes it immersive). In exactly the same way, the CAUSES of declining by degrees is a conflation of multiple variables.

Are the WDW execs clueless? No, they are reasonably smart people who can play a political game. The reward structure in place is tilted toward doing more Declining by Degrees, frankly. Hit or beat your quarterly goals to get a personal financial reward. It's TOP leadership - CEO and parks guru - who can change that. And, at the end of the day, it's the messaging to Wall Street analysts that matter the most. If you weaned those guys off short-term growth year over year, we'd be having a whole different conversation. That starts and ends with the CEO (and maybe the CFO, not to mention corporate strategy), not the park vice presidents.

Culture. It's definitely true Disneyland has a culture WDW does not. There is pride in those who work in the park Walt built and oversaw, walking the same places he walked. This isn't a matter of "education" per se, though some of that would help (see below). In the meantime, culture change is extremely hard. Not for nothing are most business book bestsellers ultimately about culture change.

Worker education. For the first 30 years of its existence, Disneyland paid its employees a massive premium when compared to local competition and industries. This did two things. First, it made people want to stay and become "lifers"--guess where that aforementioned culture comes from? Second, it made the hiring extremely competitive. Only those who were super-friendly and super with-it actually got hired. It's true that DL no longer pays that much (comparatively), but the big thing that sticks out in the case of WDW is the source of workers. Giant herds of front line CMs are on the college program or the International program (especially in Epcot for the latter). Giant herds. On the one hand, this creates a lot of turnover that can actually be beneficial: when you've only been there for six months, you're less jaded and the smile is more likely to be real. This is someone who believes in the magic. On the other hand, the more experienced CPers and IPers around you ARE jaded, and eventually you feel it too. This, too, is part of where the culture comes from.

I'm tempted to say that WDI on both coasts is the only place firing on all cylinders, but that's not entirely true either. The place is VERY political, to the point where the project, the outcome, and the guest experience take backseats to ensuring effective politics within the halls of WDI, and that's a crying shame since the folks involved are so talented (and WDI folks really do care. I'm not sure I've even heard stories about those guys becoming jaded).

So can a visit to Anaheim fix things? Maybe it'll move the needle a little bit. Much more potent would be an adjustment of the reward structure for executives, and finding a way to create the right culture among hourly CMs. The old Disneyland formula worked well: pay so much in hourly wage that you definitely fall in line since you want to keep the job so badly. But that requires massive vision to bring about, and it involves the corporate suite in Burbank, not just the park presidents.
 

Ignohippo

Well-Known Member
A few more thoughts while I have the time on a somewhat gloomy day ...

For those who think WDW (and UNI and all of O-Town) have most of the summer left, so "let's wait and see" (whenever I read this now I think Germany and WWII ...have no idea why!), I've been told in the last few years by FL tourism (state) officials that the summer season peaks between July 20-25th every year. The difference can have to do with calendars, July 4th etc ...

That means that taking the last date in the range of July 25th, every successive week will see lower and lower and lower numbers of visitors until things bottom out traditionally in the two middle weeks of September before gradually building again.


It's going to be even worse this year since Hillsborough County (Tampa area) schools start school 2 weeks earlier this year.
 

COProgressFan

Well-Known Member
The Declining by Degrees concept isn't a single thing, but rather a conflation of multiple things (a slow dying-off of several dozen intricate details in every visual sweep, stuff no one notices consciously, but given enough volume really makes it immersive). In exactly the same way, the CAUSES of declining by degrees is a conflation of multiple variables.

Are the WDW execs clueless? No, they are reasonably smart people who can play a political game. The reward structure in place is tilted toward doing more Declining by Degrees, frankly. Hit or beat your quarterly goals to get a personal financial reward. It's TOP leadership - CEO and parks guru - who can change that. And, at the end of the day, it's the messaging to Wall Street analysts that matter the most. If you weaned those guys off short-term growth year over year, we'd be having a whole different conversation. That starts and ends with the CEO (and maybe the CFO, not to mention corporate strategy), not the park vice presidents.

Culture. It's definitely true Disneyland has a culture WDW does not. There is pride in those who work in the park Walt built and oversaw, walking the same places he walked. This isn't a matter of "education" per se, though some of that would help (see below). In the meantime, culture change is extremely hard. Not for nothing are most business book bestsellers ultimately about culture change.

Worker education. For the first 30 years of its existence, Disneyland paid its employees a massive premium when compared to local competition and industries. This did two things. First, it made people want to stay and become "lifers"--guess where that aforementioned culture comes from? Second, it made the hiring extremely competitive. Only those who were super-friendly and super with-it actually got hired. It's true that DL no longer pays that much (comparatively), but the big thing that sticks out in the case of WDW is the source of workers. Giant herds of front line CMs are on the college program or the International program (especially in Epcot for the latter). Giant herds. On the one hand, this creates a lot of turnover that can actually be beneficial: when you've only been there for six months, you're less jaded and the smile is more likely to be real. This is someone who believes in the magic. On the other hand, the more experienced CPers and IPers around you ARE jaded, and eventually you feel it too. This, too, is part of where the culture comes from.

I'm tempted to say that WDI on both coasts is the only place firing on all cylinders, but that's not entirely true either. The place is VERY political, to the point where the project, the outcome, and the guest experience take backseats to ensuring effective politics within the halls of WDI, and that's a crying shame since the folks involved are so talented (and WDI folks really do care. I'm not sure I've even heard stories about those guys becoming jaded).

So can a visit to Anaheim fix things? Maybe it'll move the needle a little bit. Much more potent would be an adjustment of the reward structure for executives, and finding a way to create the right culture among hourly CMs. The old Disneyland formula worked well: pay so much in hourly wage that you definitely fall in line since you want to keep the job so badly. But that requires massive vision to bring about, and it involves the corporate suite in Burbank, not just the park presidents.

Thanks for the insightful post, Kevin. Haven't heard from you around here in a while, and I don't know if you're on any other site doing regular posts any longer. Always appreciated your commentary even if sometimes I didn't exactly agree. The "Declining by Degrees" concept though is one that really identifies the crux of the problems at WDW.
 

Ignohippo

Well-Known Member
Are you suggesting that Disney Springs wasn't well thought out? That this 8-plus years in the making Extreme Makeover: Lifestyle Center Edition may not have been the Sheriff's finest hour? Oh, pish-posh, folks are planning trips around visiting and this place is changing locals shopping habits doncha know?

Who would think a community where a vast segment of workers don't even make $10 an hour, let alone $20 or $30 couldn't support upscale shopping?

Oh yeah, anyone like myself that has spent copious amounts of time in both Orange Counties!


There's a lot of money in Orlando. Don't fool yourself.

But none of those people would go anywhere near a Disney "Mall" (no matter how nice it may be). To support something like Disney Springs, you need locals with cash to feel comfortable to spend that money freely and visit often. Nothing about multi-level parking structures, thousands of tourists, and a garish mouse all over the place is going to appeal to those people.

Everything about this concept is all wrong.
 

Filby61

Well-Known Member
...Are the WDW execs clueless? No, they are reasonably smart people who can play a political game. The reward structure in place is tilted toward doing more Declining by Degrees, frankly. Hit or beat your quarterly goals to get a personal financial reward. It's TOP leadership - CEO and parks guru - who can change that. And, at the end of the day, it's the messaging to Wall Street analysts that matter the most. If you weaned those guys off short-term growth year over year, we'd be having a whole different conversation. That starts and ends with the CEO (and maybe the CFO, not to mention corporate strategy), not the park vice presidents....

Outstanding post! I'd only add a mention of the longterm toxicity of having a CEO who casts former CFOs and Strategic Planning gurus like Staggs and Rasulo, and political gamesmen like Chapek, in a musical-chairs game of appointments as Park presidents and P&R chairmen, all the while dangling the carrot of Next CEO.
 

World_Showcase_Lover007

Well-Known Member
Gotcha, thanks :)



They are eventually going to price out everyone except the super elite, or super stupid (as someone who has a trip upcoming, I certainly am starting to feel this way). All of those new restaurants and the whole DS area looks great but how can a retail center that is essentially aimed at tourists provide something so spectacular that people would spend their time (and money) there versus their local stores?

The restaurants will all be competing against each other. It'll be interesting to see who, in the long run, finds their foothold and stays, and which places disappear as soon as their contract has ended.

I'll be eating at Earl of Sandwich in the meantime...at least until the higher priced places convince Disney to run the Earl out of town.
 

aladdin2007

Well-Known Member
Yup, time for a bit of a summer special as Bob 'Chappie' Chapek -- the dude who heads Disney P&R, better known for his amazing ability to sell all things Marvel and make Ike 'I really don't like Bob Iger' Perlmutter a fan -- has been making all Florida based Disney execs VERY nervous with his well-known bias toward the way TDA runs its house.

And the first up to feel the heat is none other than our old, old, old pal Phil Holmes. You may remember him as the longtime VP of the MK as it truly reached new lows in his decade-plus leadership role. He was moved over to the Star Wars Construction Park (the one with no real name, identity or attractions) last year and is currently on a tour of the Anaheim parks, as well as WDI, to see why it is that they consistently do things better than their swamp-based-brethren.

Phil's itinerary has him first at DCA to look at Hyperion Theater and its new Frozen musical (I hear Olaf is great), the lousy Bob Iger IP homage known as World of Color, the Carthay Circle Restaurant and Lounge, and Mater's Junkyard Jamboree, and then looking at nearly everything at Disneyland. He's also spending time in Glendale to get an overview of Disneyland's Star Wars Experience plans since that land opens first. No, WDW's version remains solidly 18-24 months minimally behind DL's version.

But Phil will be getting a complete rundown by Imagineering on WDW's SWE plans and, as well as Disneyland Entertainment's plans to massively upgrade and freshen Fantasmic when it returns (mid?) next summer. This is part of a strategy direct from Chappie as Chapek favors the Anaheim way of doing things and according to someone with direct knowledge ''thinks the WDW operation has gotten sloppy and lazy and their execs need to spend more time in California to learn how the DLR is managed and operated. It's a message that is hard to swallow for many WDW folks, but Chapek is unrelenting and has made it clear he thinks Anaheim is doing it better. Phil Holmes is only the first in a series of WDW execs who will be making a pilgrimage to Anaheim soon.''

This really is major news because typically WDW execs simply don't visit their SoCal kewler cousins. From what I've been told, WDW execs are not handling this news any better than the typical blogger who doesn't make the cut for one of Dr. Blondie's patented Cupcake Soirees.

Phil MAY well be on scene for some much bigger news to drop regarding the future of DLR's President as well. It does appear that Mary Niven's quite amazing climb from being the only major Cynthia Harriss era survivor to Queen of the Kingdom appears about to become official.

If so, that obviously means the end of Michael Colglazier's tenure as DLR Prez. One largely met with a collective yawn by those who work for him and with him and the paying Guests.

At least he won't have to freak out every time someone leaks a story about turning the ToT into a cheap Marvel attraction (get in your rides by Labor Day to be safe, closing day looks to be 9/12 for reopening May of 2017) or a reporter looks at public documents and realizes that DL is adding another resort hotel or has bought additional property etc.

A few other DLR tidbits:

Parks on the left coast have also been very uncrowded this summer. Since there haven't been massive shootings, possibly with terrorist ties, or killer gator attacks on property, and since DLR doesn't have very large Brazilian or British tourist bases, one must wonder if Disney has finally hit the ceiling on what US consumers can or are willing to pay for a day (or more) of MAGIC.

No decision has been made on just how many years the 'Season' of the Force will run, but TDA planners are running up against a major deadline for deciding internally whether to remove the wildly popular Hyperspace Mountain overlay for the typical fall Ghost Galaxy overlay (think about that WDW fans as you always get the same experiences year after stale year ... no matter what my Lifestyler friends/Disney addicts will have you believe). Since GG is a major selling point of DL's Halloweentime event, planners are working up alternate cheap entertainment to toss in the park if management decides the Force will remain in Tomorrowland.

Other Spirited morsels:

Don't know if any of you paid attention last week to Herb Allen's mogul conference in Sun Valley, but "the oddly waifish man of anaemic personality" AKA Tom Staggs not only showed up for the event, but arrived with Disney execs, including the head of ESPN. One can only wonder if there was some sort of not so subtle message to Bob ... you know ... a "Have a MAGICal Day!" message from both his current and former execs.

Michael Eisner was there and told a few folks that he felt slighted for not getting a shout-out (and likely an official invite) from Disney on the Shanghai opening. He was not shy about telling others that Bob still made a mistake by not getting a media penetration deal in exchange for the park (at least off the record, naturally).

SDL appears to be on solid footing, but is not attracting the spectacular attendance or interest that Disney hoped for. Way too early to draw any conclusions beyond you really don't want to be in China in summer (unless your name is Dakota!)

At least things will remain consistent with Steven Spielberg and his very odd relationship with Disney as The BFG is turning into another disaster for Disney, and one they anticipated and helped bring about. Having 87 tent poles a year leaves little room for films that need space and time (and not commenting on merits of this one as I haven't seen it). But just like Disney let The Good Dinosaur and Alice Through the Looking Glass fail so that "more important to Bob's ego" films like The Force Awakens, Zootopia, Jungle Book, Cap America Civil War and Finding Dory could make their billions, the same is true of this movie that has no buzz at all. Disney does have hopes for Pete's Dragon, but certainly does't care about it like a Moana or a Rogue One. It's all about making sacrifices.

So Rose and Crown is following Le Cellier, Chefs de France and Crystal Palace (and whomever else I'm leaving out) with an all-day, screw the Guests, menu. That is how you increase revenue despite filling fewer tables and serving fewer people. Disney still doesn't fundamentally get this strategy can only last so long.

Oh, and I saw my friend @WDWFigment is at WDW again and was commenting on Ample Hills Creamery and how great it is. Sorry, but $11 ice cream cones are absurd. I better be getting a special from a fanboi on the side with that. Don't care how good it is. No ice cream is that good ... and this is a fundamental issue so many don't get. It's like Disney has out kicked its coverage to use a football analogy.

As to WDW and O-Town crowds, relatively speaking, this reminds me an awful lot of 2008. The economy had long crashed, credit markets were dry, homes were being lost, the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind was happening and ... I took my usual visit to WDW in late October, after spending months in China, and the parks were packed. It seemed like business as usual because those trips were paid for, those credit cards that were going to go unpaid were going to go unpaid and those houses were going to be lost. People were having a bang before the bust. I returned to WDW in February of 2009 and it was a ghost town. Trips in July (including over the 4th) and December followed and the parks were, by O-Town standards, dead. Just a prediction but I think 2016 is the last bang before the next bust for a lot of people. And you can't keep having jobless recoveries as they are an oxymoron.

Sooner or later, the disastrous business model employed by WDW Co. will come home to roost and all the new timeshares they can build won't make a bit of a difference. I wonder what Disney Springs will look like when half of those new tenants are gone within 18 months of opening.

Anyway, just wanted to drop in with the WDW exec being schooled on the left coast news. May be around for a bit, but I am on holiday and don't necessarily expect me to respond or be back.

Had a feeling this was coming, Rose and Crown has been too good to be true for too long now. However after checking out the menu its not nearly as bad as Le Cellier or the ruining of Chefs de France. I loathe this all day menu expensive dinner concept.....this strategy cant be working that well anyway since Tiffins had to make a change?, but at least Rose and Crown has options under $25 and even under $20. Which one will they mess up next spirit?

ps: how much longer are we stuck with George before a change or shakeup here?
 

71jason

Well-Known Member
It's going to be even worse this year since Hillsborough County (Tampa area) schools start school 2 weeks earlier this year.

More or less state-wide, yes? Heard from teacher friends the law that prohibited school more than 2 weeks before Labor Day was repealed or expired, so back to early August starts.
 

Nubs70

Well-Known Member
I don't think anyone would try.

Can I interest you in a DLP 20th anniversary themed logo burger patty? Seriously? Napkins had nothing on that.
But in the end, the patties look the same as the previous 19 anniversaries and the non anniversary themed patties.
 

DznyRktekt

Well-Known Member
I've been saying this since the retailer list started leaking out. They've got the demographics all wrong. Most of these stores will be gone in 18-36 months. The place is going to be a ghost town in a few years.

Everything about Disney Springs screams Anaheim - from the retail mix, to the restaurant selection, to the architecture. This isn't L.A. folks. These stores may work fine with the Southern California cash flow, but Brazilian tourists (who are scrounging the outlet malls for good deals on luggage) are not going to be buying $3,000 watches. A few those stores is a great idea. A whole mall of it, without anything to draw tourists in, is a recipe for disaster.

People coming to Disney want an EXPERIENCE. The new additions to Disney Springs are as bland as it gets (just like the stupid name). There's nothing at all to get excited about. It'll be interesting to see what the next overhaul of the place will be like in 3 to 5 years.

Isn't it just a microcosm of the current Disney management? At CityWalk, Universal steps up to the counter with their own cash and builds a totally new and exciting concept around a gigantic steampunk chocolate factory. The best Disney can do with their mountains of amazing IPs is vague references to Indiana Jones in a hanger and $175 amphibious vehicle rides.

The Boathouse restaurant and Amphicar concept were brought to FL from Lake Minnetonka in Minnesota, so they are not a concept unique to DS. Another has been built in Shanghai.
http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-inspired-boathouse-to-open-in-shanghai-disney/375087661/
 

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