A Spirited Perfect Ten

[GoofGoof]

I've been asking about this $800 million ever since it was announced. The most damning and specific quote came from the NY Times:



This is not a case of a sneaking 800 million into an inflated budget. They been very specific (and worse, re-iterated again and again, as opposed to letting it fade away) that

1. It is for all new attractions (Phase Two)
2. The majority of them would be ready opening day
3. It is specifically not for budget over-runs
4. The new attractions would lead to a 30% increase in attendance
5. These so-called attractions were NOT under construction as of April 2014 before the budget was approved

It was a question I wish was asked directly at the last share-holder meeting, even more so since Bob brought it up again himself multiple times.

At this current time, we don't even have evidence that everything that was already budgeted for (aka Toy Story Playland) is coming, let alone *NEW* attractions.

Skewing the truth is one thing, but is a major media company allowed to all-out lie to its shareholders?

I don't have any inside info so this is just my educated opinion. I think you could really stretch it and maybe call this skewing the truth, but it's likely a lot closer to an all-out lie. One way to skew it is that you cancel part of the project or push it to a phase 2. Then you add $800M to add additional rides (most of which were already cancelled). Now you are technically adding rides as opposed to funding a budget overrun.

 

[stevehousse]

The only way MM+ will make up for Shanghai's shortcomings, Is because of the price increase going into effect tomorrow! They need to recoup that 800 million somehow! I still can't believe MK will cost $105 for a single day ticket! It really is asinine!

 

[wogwog]

I think so many Americans simply fall into grouping Asian nations together and not realizing how different things can be. Even in China ... or should I say the four nation-states that make up China (mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan).

But, yes, even back in the 70s, the Japanese loved Disney and were very familiar with the IP. When TDL opened it was even more Americanized than it is today. Much more English in the attractions and only one restaurant that served local cuisine.

China, in some ways, might as well be Mars or Uranus. Films weren't shown for many years. There is no Disney Channel (something Bob bungled badly in the negotiations and wanted desperately). The Disney Store is making its debut in Shanghai later this year, but the characters are not particularly known or loved.

I've spent many days at HKDL and watched people. Many seem to know the characters, but many do not. Even ones that have been around longer than I have!

The proper way to build a market is to go in slowly and make yourself known on a much smaller level. For almost a decade now, Disney has run ads over in China to educated people on what a Disney park is and how you're supposed to enjoy it.

The disconnect is still there. And if it's in HK, well, you d@mn well know it's in Shanghai.

This is an excellent analysis of doing business in Asia. The Spirit is on the mark. I am not sure Disney is very well prepared to deal with Mainland China. I have consulted on projects in different industries over my many years. I lived in Macau SAR a year and Japan two years on projects. I have also worked on shorter projects in Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. Those who do not properly research and study customs in the country they are going to work in will suffer. Something as simple as presenting your business card has a ritual in China. In most Asian countries you must carefully calculate when it is appropriate to discuss business in a planned and scheduled business meeting. Nothing is simple for American business in Asia.

I happen to know two individuals working on Shanghai Disney. One of them helped build and open Hong Kong Disney. They would also concur with the Spirit's analysis.

 

[Lee]

Just a quick post to remind everyone who may have forgotten...

I don't post maybes. I don't post possiblys. I don't guess. I don't assume.

If I post it...I know it to be accurate.

And that's all I have to say about that.

 

[WDW1974]

First off, please don't ask me about Disney's annual (or sometimes semi-annual) price increase. I'm not overly interested as they long ago passed the point of sanity and if you want an opinion from me, then just go to last year's increase and read that. I'm sure whatever I said still applies. Not interested in having that discussion here. You can tag me in the thread if you desire.

 

[WDW1974]

You've asked a lot of very interesting questions. And, like you, I don't buy any of the explanations that have thus far been presented to explain any of this. Perhaps time will tell. The story seems strange and the explanations offered fit too neatly into the puzzle. It's seems as if the entire event was carefully prepared and executed for effect.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I am wondering to what end?

 

[WDW1974]

I am curious about the $800m. A payoff to someone or some government (China)? $800m is a nice budget for a theme park much less theme park "additions." Something smells funny that all the chlorine in the reservoir behind Splash Mountain cannot mask!

I don't get why no one in the legit media, let alone the Wall Street guys have asked and pressed on this. This isn't a price increase at theme park story by Soup & Salad Sandra (anyone tweet her about this whole story? Obviously, she is way too small time to smell blood in the water and pursue but ...) that was written a week ago and just waiting to drop in Disney's official statement.

$800 million dollars 'missing in Shanghai' on top of $2 billion plus blown on NGE here in the swamps ... and no one has to answer to/for this? Sorry, guys, but repeat after me : Disney IS a business ... a publicly traded one at that. They don't get the blessing of being able to blow off every serious question they don't want to answer.

 

[PhotoDave219]

The latest satellite photo (taken within the last few months) shows nothing happening in the plot assigned to Toy Story. This meshes with the official birdseye also omitting Toy Story, so maybe Playland has been dropped from the menu (a good thing, IMO). Or perhaps it could be built from scratch in a year's time at China speed. We'll see.

Additionally, the sat pic shows that Voyage to the Crystal Grotto has been shortened (a reverse segment, like Maelstrom's, appears to have been cut) from the earlier plan.

Correct. Don't expect any shovels to start turning dirt at DHS turning anytime soon.

 

[WDW1974]

I'm still looking for an attributable source.

Now, c'mon. You damn well know that is impossible. This is a company that won't even tell you what they are putting into a theme park that was supposed to open this year. They are supposed to comment on this?

That line has always bothered me whenever I break news here or someone else respected does. If you release a source, you destroy having them and may cause damage to them and to others. Often times, these sources are also our friends in the real world. And to what end? If you had a name, then you could turn around and say 'Mr. Johnson isn't believable to me. He has an agenda because of XYZ.'

Guess what? Bob Iger isn't believable to me because I know he lies. And he has a bigger agenda than anyone in this situation. His BRAND's success in China, if not his legacy are at stake.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Your prejudice is duly noted. I'm in no rush to find guilt. I can wait until more objective voices are heard.

You might want to choose your words a tad more carefully… at last count there are at least four or five journalists who participate in this particular thread on a regular basis. Or more.

 

[ChrisFL]

After hearing about the filming of Sharknado 3 at Universal Orlando, I was hoping they'd convert Twister to a Sharknado attraction...ok, not really, but catering to the lowest common denominator, I wonder how popular it would be

 

[Funmeister]

I don't get why no one in the legit media, let alone the Wall Street guys have asked and pressed on this. This isn't a price increase at theme park story by Soup & Salad Sandra (anyone tweet her about this whole story? Obviously, she is way too small time to smell blood in the water and pursue but ...) that was written a week ago and just waiting to drop in Disney's official statement.

$800 million dollars 'missing in Shanghai' on top of $2 billion plus blown on NGE here in the swamps ... and no one has to answer to/for this? Sorry, guys, but repeat after me : Disney IS a business ... a publicly traded one at that. They don't get the blessing of being able to blow off every serious question they don't want to answer.

Being a publicly traded company they have to be questioned at some point? Right? I mean they are not immune to the "opinions" of Wall St. especially when we are talking possibly $2.5b+ of wasted/non-accounted for money? Confusing. WHo will hold them (Iger) accountable? Maybe it will come to a head about the time he is ready to retire in the old "Save Disney" fashion and a team will try to come in and take it over? Sorry for the questions but this f'ing company is becoming nothing more than one big question mark!

 

[ChrisFL]

The only way MM+ will make up for Shanghai's shortcomings, Is because of the price increase going into effect tomorrow! They need to recoup that 800 million somehow! I still can't believe MK will cost $105 for a single day ticket! It really is asinine!

Meanwhile they just raised the price of a 1-day ticket to Tokyo Disneyland...a bigger, better park than MK...with the currency conversion, the cost is around...... $53 now

 

[WDW1974]

Changing my tone and getting serious once more ...

Business people (and governments) in China don't play by the same rules as North America, Western Europe, and Japan.

With billions being spent in Shanghai, maybe the deleted Huffington Post opinion piece struck a little too close to concerns about the wisdom of investing in the difficult Chinese market.

Frankly, I don't care what happens in China except how it results in lower investment in Orlando. (7.4% of domestic P&R revenue during the 1st quarter for those of you who remember my earlier post on this subject, actually below Six Flags' 9%.)

And I wouldn't have taken the time to write this if someone hadn't misused their power and influence in order to delete a minor opinion piece in a second-rate journalism outlet.

Not that you didn't compose your typically on-target 3,000 word post, but I pulled the above because it just needs to be driven home.

China is unlike any other market on the planet. Disney has had difficulty in Hong Kong, which was under British rule until just before DAK opened (see WDW connection in post!) Mr. Snyder addressed these difficulties in that HuffPo piece. I have seen the exact same things he wrote about as I lived in HK for part of 2010 and also visited as a tourist in 2008.

Again, does Iger want to tell the media that he hasn't been given permission (yet) by the CCP to even release a picture of himself on the site? And what that means? How much damage could this Redstone dude or anyone else do to the price ... the value of TWDC ... if Disney's problems in China go far, far deeper than what we already know and what some of us suspect?

What happens in the mainland doesn't necessarily stay in the mainland no matter how much some Americans wish that it would.

 

[Lee]

Now, c'mon. You **** well know that is impossible. This is a company that won't even tell you what they are putting into a theme park that was supposed to open this year. They are supposed to comment on this?

That line has always bothered me whenever I break news here or someone else respected does. If you release a source, you destroy having them and may cause damage to them and to others. Often times, these sources are also our friends in the real world. And to what end? If you had a name, then you could turn around and say 'Mr. Johnson isn't believable to me. He has an agenda because of XYZ.'

Guess what? Bob Iger isn't believable to me because I know he lies. And he has a bigger agenda than anyone in this situation. His BRAND's success in China, if not his legacy are at stake.

Yes. That.

 

[WDW1974]

I find it interesting that, despite the fact that something like 2 million Chinese visit the U.S. each year, WDW does not offer maps in Chinese. Japanese, Portuguese, French, German, Spanish, yes. But no Chinese.

Interpret as you see fit.

Chinese visitors to WDW are about as common as American visitors to HKDL are (and I am double counting Mr. and Mrs. @WDWFigment !) It's slightly higher in Anaheim because California has a large Chinese-American population. Even DLP started putting out park maps in Russian last year, the first new language added since opening, because of the growing wealth there and those people traveling.

I'd venture to say that Disney is far more popular and known in Russia than it is in China. I wonder if Wall Street actually knows that and thinks about what that means for Disney.

I believe Disney can be very successful there. But it is going to be a very long haul and take a long time and there will be frustrations and situations that they've never had to deal with. And they can't even handle a barely critical Op-Ed in the HuffPo (that bastion of fine journalism) that suggests that. Yep, ugly times be ahead.

 

[WDW1974]

Quite frankly we all know this is total BS. They are spinning it as additional ride capacity because they don't want to tell analysts "we're spending an extra $800M because the project is hopelessly over budget". When was the last time a major WDI/Disney project didn't go over budget. A lot of times they end up cutting things or at least scaling down. At least in this case they are just bucking up and spending the extra money.

But what if that $800 million isn't going for even budget issues? What if it is going to individuals in the government to keep the project moving forward? Would that potentially be a catastrophic blow to Iger even keeping his job? Do you think IF Disney has to pay people off that maybe they should have thought the whole deal through better? Maybe had better intel? How do you think graft would play on Main Street (and not the one in the MK, although that one too)? You did read where I said people are being executed for this over there, right? (and you can read all about it ...)

 

[BrerJon]

I think this video is interesting given the current discussion, as it pertains to Iger's attitude to corruption and silencing those that speak badly of the boss. At the 4:50 mark in this video, Iger recalls an incident where he tried to be a whistle-blower but was shut down:

http://features.aol.com/video/how-disneys-ceo-once-confronted-corrupt-boss

 

[WDW1974]

It reminds me of some members here at WDWmagic. They join the forum and make a few posts and then may wait several months or even several years before they come back to unload a viewpoint or a criticism that they know will get them banned. Contrary to some theories, I don't think anyone was upset by any of the stories. It looks as if the HuffPost discovered some information about the author that didn't jive. The author is listed as a "Writer and Media Strategist" so perhaps he has some grand strategy that will be revealed.

I can tell you that you are flat out mistaken. But I mean that's OK. I'm not going to tell you who I know in Burbank or on Wall Street who told me how the author's last column on Iger and succession at Disney was received. And, naturally, I do have an agenda as I want major regime change at TWDC ... so you're going to go on believing whatever you choose.

I can also tell you that HuffPo absolutely thoroughly vetted the guy because of the subjects he was writing about. There were no issues until Bob had issues, which were passed to Willow and then on to her designated fall guy.

I honestly don't know the answers but I think Iger is media savvy enough to know about The Streisand effect and realize all of its implications.

Iger isn't nearly as smart as you, and countless others, give him credit for being. He acted emotionally, which does finally prove that he isn't an Audio Animatronic after all, and I don't for a second believe he thought out all the repercussions. I wonder if he'll run into the author at the Oscars tomorrow (on ABC!!!)

 

[WDW1974]

If Snyder's for real, then he had to know what he was doing by publishing on HuffPo. He could easily have placed that almost anywhere he wanted, but he deliberately chose to put it out on Iger's wife's site. That's the part that make me think that the inevitable streisanding was part of the plan to begin with.

If it goes up on Bloomberg or Forbes or Motley Fool, and stays there, no one is talking about it come Monday.

Just a correction, but the HuffPo isn't 'Iger's wife's site' ... I believe she is a co-founder and retains a role as a senior editor. But again, no matter the case, I can't believe you'd suggest that it's perfectly OK for her to use her power to help her husband's corporation. That isn't how journalism is supposed to work. And she's the head of the Annenberg School of Journalism at USC. She has to be above reproach by definition, in that role. No debating that.

If ABC News decides to do an investigation that shows WDW transportation is unsafe, should we expect them to kill it because ABC is part of TWDC? Would you say 'yes!'? That's a rabbit hole you really don't want to go down. And even that is an apples to oranges comparison because the HuffPo is independent of TWDC.