According to the article/survey, 56% won't pay $8 for ESPN & ESPN2. Then to maintain price, the price goes up to $20 a home. And only 6% would pay $20.
The question then is how much will that 6% have to pay for ESPN to maintain certain profit levels.
Let's say 10 million homes pay $8 a month for both channels - resulting in $80 million in fees (I'm using 10 million for ease of math).
Only 4.4 million are willing to pay that $8 a la carte. For $20 a month for those my math comes out to $88 million (there could be other factors that they are weighing in). EDIT: Actually its based on another WP reporter saying 30% switching to an online ESPN service would need to charge $20.
But only 600,000 of those 10 million homes will pay $20 a month. 600,000 x $20 comes out to a mere $12 mil (down from $80 mil).
How many people are willing to pay $133 a month for two sports channels, when you can get sports content from the 4 over the air networks, Fox Sports, TBS, CBS Sports, NBC Sports, Big 10 network....
And what does that do to ESPN ad rates?
Maybe they'll be a sequel to the ESPN 30 for 30 film 'Broke', but will interview ESPN executives