A Spirited Perfect Ten

[PhotoDave219]

Right now the fall is due to ESPN. There is still the matter of the market as a whole. (Cramer said last night 'its time to raise cash'). $DIS is still in a bunch of mutual funds & index funds - if theres an exit from them everything in them is going down... And with the ESPN drop fresh in minds nobody is going to 'run to the safety of Disney' since it's been exposed as a non-staple.

This drop is due to micro-issues (as in their own issues). Unless there's another shoe to drop (like, say, a DOJ investigation into the dealings in China), the next drop will be of the macro variety (going down with the rest of the market).

Wall Street is very reactionary. The stock stabilized around $108. Its still up $30 a share over the past year.

ESPN will be fine, College Football season is almost here and they're going to be pulling McDuckian money from advertisers.

 

[Bairstow]

wait.. what?
I only seen the japanese lilo and stitch and it was pretty much a animeesque and exaggerated version of the USA's Lilo and Stitch.
I really hope the change wasn't just pressured by the supposed xenophobic tendency of some old Japanese folk (the imperial remains?)

Maybe Japanese audiences rejected Lilo's character design because her nose wasn't small enough.
The popularity of human anime characters is usually inversely proportional to the size of their noses.

 

[brb1006]

wait.. what?
I only seen the japanese lilo and stitch and it was pretty much a animeesque and exaggerated version of the USA's Lilo and Stitch.
I really hope the change wasn't just pressured by the supposed xenophobic tendency of some old Japanese folk (the imperial remains?)

I remember watching around 20 episodes of the English dub and it actually gave me vibes from Lilo And Stitch the series. It aired on Disney XD years ago.

 

[Bairstow]

Interestingly, Tokyo just got a version of Stitchencounter which has no mention of Lilo's tiny-nosed replacement, probably because it's a direct port of an attraction that predates the anime.
It's kind of neat to see a Turtle Talk-type attraction apply a cel shader to its graphics.

 

[rael ramone]

What are the chances that it gets close to $120 by the end of the year?

According to CNN Money, the consensus median price target (meaning a year from now, not year end) is $124.50. Though one has to view that with a grain of salt since 1) there's still a lot of pixie dust among analysts and 2) they may not be done downgrading and/or they haven't been accounted for yet - the earnings/CC is still recent news. Personally, I wouldn't touch it.

(If I *did* believe $124.50 was the correct target, I wouldn't pay a cent over $98 for it, either to start a position or to add to one).

 

[brb1006]

Apparently, Lilo went off to college and Stitch thought she'd abandoned him, stole a space cruiser or something, and fled to Japan. Jumbaa and Pleakley followed.

Really, I think the Japanese just hate Lilo and wanted to do a Stitch anime without her.

I don't think the Japnese hate Lilo, I think they wanted to make their version of Lilo And Stitch but it's takes place in the "Alternative Universe". This isn't the first time an anime was made based on an American propriety. I heard the Powerpuff Girl's we're huge in Japan, and they decided to make a Japanese version of the characters and have it set in Japan. The anime is called "Powerpuff Girls Z"

 

[brb1006]

Interestingly, Tokyo just got a version of Stitchencounter which has no mention of Lilo's tiny-nosed replacement, probably because it's a direct port of an attraction that predates the anime.
It's kind of neat to see a Turtle Talk-type attraction apply a cel shader to its graphics.

Disneyland Paris also had got this, also I remember Tokyo Disneyland had a Summer or Spring long event years ago that was dedicated to Lilo and Stitch and was Hawaiian themed. Lilo And Stitch event got their own parade and has various Disney character wearing Hawaiian styled shirts and some female Disney characters as Hula Dancers. This might have been around 2008 or 2009 since this was before the Jubilation Parade debuted.

 

[Bairstow]

Disneyland Paris also had got this, also I remember Tokyo Disneyland had a Summer or Spring long event years ago that was dedicated to Lilo and Stitch and was Hawaiian themed. Lilo And Stitch event got their own parade and has various Disney character wearing Hawaiian styled shirts and some female Disney characters as Hula Dancers. This might have been around 2008 or 2009 since this was before the Jubilation Parade debuted.

There's also this.

 

[GoofGoof]

While the 'new plans' aren't in jeopardy (opinion - I'm not an insider), the quality of such 'could' be. Even in unabashedly positive times they haven't feared reducing / scaling back plans (from 'phase 2's that have proven to be 'phase nevers') to find ways to 'value-engineer' (I feel icky typing that phrase) the plans into something cheaper. (Kinda like scaling back a Mobile Fidelity Sound Lab gold disc to MP3 format). But 'something' is going to happen to the Studios (even they won't forever ignore a dumpster fire).

But if ESPN has it's ability to 'bring in it's share' of revenue reduced, they will definitely look to expand margins in other areas of the company (executive compensation obviously off limits). $10-15 extra for a filet (that may no longer be 8oz) for instance...

Agreed. There is always time for cutbacks. Even if the stock was up and ESPN had more subscribers that would still be the case.

I'm not an insider either but I would be pretty surprised to see this blip in the stock price have an impact on WDW. It took them months and years to come up with a plan and a budget and get it approved. Disney does nothing fast, including reacting to bad news.

I do think P&R may get more attention going forward if TV flatlines or declines. That could be good or bad depending on how well the parks are doing. If they continue to exceed expectations it could result in even more investment.

 

[Cesar R M]

Maybe Japanese audiences rejected Lilo's character design because her nose wasn't small enough.
The popularity of human anime characters is usually inversely proportional to the size of their noses.

wow.. that intro reminds me alot of the animee "RED LINE".

 

[rael ramone]

I do think P&R may get more attention going forward if TV flatlines or declines. That could be good or bad depending on how well the parks are doing. If they continue to exceed expectations it could result in even more investment.

If they think announcing new stuff will do the trick they'll do it. But they'll try to make it as 'capital neutral' as possible by looking to cut/price hike whatever they think they can get away with - and chalk it up to 'guest demand' (well, since guests demand more stuff to do in DHS they must also be demanding that we replace rib eye on the menu w/ flank steak, right?)

 

[Brer Panther]

I don't think the Japnese hate Lilo, I think they wanted to make their version of Lilo And Stitch but it's takes place in the "Alternative Universe"

If it wasn't supposed to be canon, why even include Lilo at all?

 

[Bairstow]

wow.. that intro reminds me alot of the animee "RED LINE".

It should. They're both from Madhouse.

 

[Wikkler]

Maybe Japanese audiences rejected Lilo's character design because her nose wasn't small enough.
The popularity of human anime characters is usually inversely proportional to the size of their noses.

I cannot believe I watched the entire thing. I don't even understand Japanese.

 

[Bairstow]

I cannot believe I watched the entire thing. I don't even understand Japanese.

Oh...Well...er...

 

[ford91exploder]

Wall Street is very reactionary. The stock stabilized around $108. Its still up $30 a share over the past year.

ESPN will be fine, College Football season is almost here and they're going to be pulling McDuckian money from advertisers.

Part of the problem with ESPN is since the talent purges RATINGS have gone down and with them AD RATES so DIS has managed to shoot themselves in the foot and reload for another round of revenue decreases. They will of course be making money on college ball BUT not as much as last year.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Part of the problem with ESPN is since the talent purges RATINGS have gone down and with them AD RATES so DIS has managed to shoot themselves in the foot and reload for another round of revenue decreases. They will of course be making money on college ball BUT not as much as last year.

People go to ESPN for the sports. They don't go for personalities.

Ratings are going to drop an ad rates sure as hell are not going to drop.

Older, high price talent is being let go and younger, better looking, cheaper talent is being brought in.

I'll let Simmons walk bring in Russini every time.

 

[ford91exploder]

Right now the fall is due to ESPN. There is still the matter of the market as a whole. (Cramer said last night 'its time to raise cash'). $DIS is still in a bunch of mutual funds & index funds - if theres an exit from them everything in them is going down... And with the ESPN drop fresh in minds nobody is going to 'run to the safety of Disney' since it's been exposed as a non-staple.

This drop is due to micro-issues (as in their own issues). Unless there's another shoe to drop (like, say, a DOJ investigation into the dealings in China), the next drop will be of the macro variety (going down with the rest of the market).

I watch the shorts - right now DIS is the most shorted stock in the NYSE, So obviously many people with a LOT of money on the line are betting DIS will drop even more.

For those who do not know what 'shorting' a stock means usually a institutional (retirement/hedge fund) 'borrows' shares (for a fee of course) and sells them betting that before the loan interval concludes they will be able to repurchase shares at a lower price and keep the difference between the sale and repurchase price.

 

[ford91exploder]

People go to ESPN for the sports. They don't go for personalities.

Ratings are going to drop an ad rates sure as hell are not going to drop.

Older, high price talent is being let go and younger, better looking, cheaper talent is being brought in.

I'll let Simmons walk bring in Russini every time.

Ad rates are set partially by ratings and ESPN's ratings have fallen and so have the Ad rates, DIS is not in full control of the ad rates, Most ad contracts specify rates based on share so if share falls so do the advertiser's rates. It's meant to keep the content providers honest.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Ad rates are set partially by ratings and ESPN's ratings have fallen and so have the Ad rates, DIS is not in full control of the ad rates, Most ad contracts specify rates based on share so if share falls so do the advertiser's rates. It's meant to keep the content providers honest.

I'm in the business, I know how ad rates work.

The thing that has sent Wall Street in a tizzy is ESPN losing subscribers. That's happening because everybody's cable bills are ridiculous and nobody wants to pay that.